Hakuho's 40th Yusho

[Gurowake]

Yes, I have Hakuho's dominance on my mind during this month's IBB. Now at 35 Yusho and having only lost 2 of the last ten basho, he seems bound for 40. When will it happen? How dominant will those 5 Yusho be? How will the 40th happen?

I believe I have all possible choices covered unless the NSK make some big changes. If you have an inside track on them expanding to more than 6 basho a year or more than 15 days in a basho and thus think it's possible he'll get 40 Yusho before Natsu 2015 or more than 15 wins per basho, I'm sorry I can't accommodate you.

Also include a comment for number of Yusho won by other rikishi.

This poll will close, if I remember, on Shonichi of Aki 2015.

[Gurowake]

Kakuryu 1, Terunofuji 2, Harumafuji 1

[Mongolith]

Thinking he wins a bit less than 2/3 of the upcoming bashos. So guessing 5/8 yusho with the the 40th coming at the end of 2016 which he seals in style with a zensho-yusho. Guessing fuji gets 2 in a row somewhere in there and makes yok. Kak gets his first yok yusho also. Rest of the field gets nada.

Edited August 14, 2015 by Mongolith

[ScreechingOwl]

It seems inevitable that Hakuho will win at least 40 basho, although one thing I've learned from a few decades of watching sports is that sometimes things can go from seemingly inevitable to impossible quite unexpectedly. Perhaps the best known example of this is Tiger Woods, who, at the end of 2008 was 33, and still had 5-8 prime years of golfing in front of him. At that date he had already won 14 major championships, at a rate of more than one a year. I'm not sure there was anyone who followed golf back in 2008 who did not believe that Woods would easily (and quickly) surpass Jack Nicklaus' record of 18 major championships. Of course, one divorce and one back surgery later, he hasn't won a major tournament since 2008, and I don't think anyone who follows golf presently believes Woods will surpass Nicklaus - in fact, I'd bet he'll never win even one more. My, how things can change.

Still, I'm guessing Hakuho will get to 40, although by my math I'm predicting it will take him 10 basho to win 5 (which is way off his pace to date). I guess I'm figuring he's getting older and Terunofuji is improving. Let's give Terunofuji 3 of the other 5 basho, Kauryu 1 and Kisenosato 1 too (yes, yes, the dream dies hard).

I predict 69 victories in Hakuho's five winning basho, so that's one zensho, two 14 wins and two 13 wins. Let's say he gets the 40th in high style, just so the next rikishi who dreams of winning 40 rikishi is brought back to earth. It may happen, but I doubt it will happen in my lifetime.

Edited August 14, 2015 by ScreechingOwl

[Naganoyama]

Kakuryu 1 Terunofuji 1

4 * 14-1

1 * 13-2

[Asashosakari]

It seems inevitable that Hakuho will win at least 40 basho, although one thing I've learned from a few decades of watching sports is that sometimes things can go from seemingly inevitable to impossible quite unexpectedly. (...) Still, I'm guessing Hakuho will get to 40, although by my math I'm predicting it will take him 10 basho to win 5 (which is way off his pace to date). I guess I'm figuring he's getting older and Terunofuji is improving.

That's pretty much my thinking, too. Terunofuji really is the major wildcard here, both directly and indirectly. If he doesn't improve quickly enough then injury is the only thing standing between Hakuho and 40+, but if he does improve that quickly - who's to say that Hakuho actually sticks around? If he gets beaten convincingly by Teru a few times, he might well conclude that the torch has been passed, and decide to call it quits without hanging around just for the chance to sneak a couple more championships.

[Tsubame]

I still think, that he goes intai after his 36th yusho, because of his father.

[Akinomaki]

Now more than ever he says he wants to go on till the Olympics

[kuroimori]

my picks:

last 4 basho of 2017

68 wins

13 wins with playoff

[teo_heel]

He will never reach his 40th yusho... I can't say, why he will never reach that milestone... but I don't think, that he will beat that record. So I see no reason to write the number of yushos by other rikishi.

[WAKATAKE]

Prediction wise, he is on pace to reach 40 next year. For me I put down Aki 2016. I think he will have one zensho, three 14-1, and one 13-2. His 40th yusho will come as a 14-1. In reality, I think he can push 50. He's just too good. I think that the other two yokozuna will split the other two yusho between now and Aki of next year.

[Gurowake]

Just bumping this.  Not going to declare a "winner", but now it's happened and you can see how people thought about it 2.5 years ago.