What if there was no Hakuho? The Yushos instead go to...

[Gurowake]

What if Hakuho had never joined sumo? We'll never know for sure, but we can look at the results of the bouts he wasn't in and get a good idea. Any bouts lost to Hakuho are assumed to be won instead, a reasonable although not entirely accurate assumption; no attempt was made to determine who they would be against and if that would further impact things.

More than one plain shikona indicates a hypothetical playoff, and they are listed in order of my view of their strength at that point in time, yielding the most likely winner on the left. Shikona with () are non-joi rikishi who would have had the same number of wins as the joi rikishi listed first, but would presumably have faced more higher-ranked opponents if they had actually been in contention for the Yusho. Shikona with <> are joi rikishi with the best record where there is a non-joi rikishi at least one win ahead of them. Feel free to debate who would have actually won in those cases, although in some of them it wasn't particularly close.

Hypothetical Yusho winners in the basho Hakuho won:

2015-7: Kakuryu
2015-3: Terunofuji
2015-1: Harumafuji, Kakuryu
2014-11: Kakuryu
2014-9: Ichinojo, <Kakuryu>
2014-7: Kotoshogiku
2014-5: Kisenosato
2014-1: Kakuryu
2013-9: Kisenosato
2013-7: Kisenosato, Kakuryu, Tochiozan, (Kaisei)
2013-5: Kisenosato
2013-3: Kisenosato, Goeido, Tochiozan, (Okinoumi)
2012-11: Goeido
2012-3: Kakuryu
2011-11: Kotoshogiku, (Wakakoyu)
2011-9: Kotoshogiku, Kisenosato
2011-5: Kakuryu
2011-1: Kotoshogiku
2010-11: Toyonoshima, <Kaio>
2010-9: Tochiozan, (Takekaze)
2010-7: Aran, (Kakuryu)
2010-5: Aran, <Baruto>
2010-3: Baruto
2009-11: Asashoryu, (Tochinoshin), (Miyabiyama)
2009-7: Kotooshu
2009-3: Asashoryu
2008-11: Harumafuji
2008-9: Harumafuji
2008-7: Kotomitsuki
2008-1: Asashoryu
2007-11: Chiyotaikai
2007-9: Kyokutenho, <Kotomitsuki>, <Kotoshogiku>, <Aminishiki>
2007-5: Kotomitsuki
2007-3: Asashoryu
2006-5: Miyabiyama

By rikishi, additional hypothetical Yusho, hypothetical playoff wins and losses based on my strength estimates, and total hypothetical Yusho:

Kakuryu: +5 (2 PL) = 6

Terunofuji: +1 = 2

Harumafuji: +3 (1 PW) = 9

Ichinojo: +1 = 1

Kotoshogiku: +4 (1 PW) = 4

Kisenosato: +5 (2 PW, 1 PL) = 5

Tochiozan: +1 (2 PL) = 1

Goeido: +1 (1 PL) = 1

Toyonoshima: +1 = 1

Aran: +2 = 2

Baruto: +1 = 2

Asashoryu: +4 = 29 (being forced to retire right after his 29th Yusho would have been interesting; if he hadn't been forced out along with no Hakuho, might he have had 40?)

Kotooshu: +1 = 2

Kotomitsuki: +2 = 3

Chiyotaikai +1 = 4

Kyokutenho: +1 = 2

Miyabiyama: +1 = 1

Kisenosato also would have gotten into the Natsu 2012 playoff and would have been most likely to win it, but the above totals do not take that into account. Hakuho did not materially affect any other Yusho race he didn't win after winning his second Yusho.

Kisenosato might been promoted to Yokozuna during 2013. While some of those yushos or playoffs would have been with 11 wins, what's also not shown is 13 wins in Kyushu that year when Harumafuji won. It certainly would have been within reason, especially if he had actually won the two playoffs and had 4 Yusho in a row, even if 2 of them were with 11 wins, and then followed them with a 13-win basho.

Kotoshogiku might *also* have been promoted to Yokozuna, as (assuming he would have won the matches he lost to Hakuho) he would have had gone 12Y - 11 - 11 at Sekiwake after Nagoya 2011 to merit promotion to Ozeki, and would have followed it up with 12Y/D - 12Y. Would that have been good enough, with no 13 win tournaments?

Tochiozan might have been promoted to Ozeki in 2014 as he had 30 wins in 3 tournaments in Sanyaku with 3 losses to Hakuho, but he probably would have lost those matches anyway, right? Anyway, we might also have seen Goeido not promoted because his 32 wins in 3 tournaments would no longer include 3 wins against a guy with 20+ Yusho, and that's the only time he was even close to promotion.

Edited August 13, 2015 by Gurowake

[kuroimori]

Daaamn, that Hakuho guy prevented quite a helluva lot promotions (with ease)

Edited August 12, 2015 by kuroimori

[Gurowake]

Two basho that Asashoryu won that were incorrectly included have been excised, and the hypothetical total for Asashoryu has been adjusted. Chiyotaikai was also added in the rikishi list, as he was overlooked previously.

[Asashosakari]

I doubt we'd have actually seen all that many 11 and 12-win yusho. The free-for-all we saw back in 1999-2002 is a pretty good indicator for what happens in such a situation, IMHO...the "best of the rest" guy (Musashimaru back then) seized the opportunity, but he wasn't consistently great enough to dominate, and in the absence of that, a lot of tournaments saw surprise yusho contenders emerge who rarely (or never) managed to repeat that feat. But nearly all of them still managed to put together 13+ wins in those yusho runs.

It's a whole different ballgame when a rikishi who happens to have a strong start into the tournament knows that there's no invincible obstacle waiting for him at the end of the road...if you're contending for the yusho with somebody like Hakuho in the field, you pretty much know that your first loss means game over and that likely causes additional tension in all bouts, while without him you can have a lot more relaxed approach and even a loss won't be as much of a confidence breaker.

The flipside of that is that it opens up the race to a lot more contenders, all with their confidence boosted - a bunch of those 11/12 win "yusho" that Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku are credited with above probably would have seen surprise challenges from guys who didn't play any role at all in the real tournaments.

Edit: An interesting question is who today's "best of the rest" rikishi would have been in a comparable scenario. (Let's say, due to Hakuho becoming very injury-prone around age 27/28 a couple of years ago, the way both Takanohana and Asashoryu did.) It might actually be Kakuryu... I suspect Harumafuji's inconsistency and frequent injuries of his own would have ruled him out (even though he's probably the most talented rikishi after Hakuho), and Kisenosato's mental weakness seems to be based on more than just Hakuho's existence, so his penchant for inexplicable implosions might have persisted anyway.

(But of course that's a somewhat different premise than Hakuho never joining Ozumo at all.)

Edited August 13, 2015 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari]

And to play devil's advocate about Asashoryu - perhaps he'd have finished with fewer yusho without Hakuho in the mix? Without a strong challenger testing him his motivation to continue butting heads with the NSK might well have hit rock-bottom a couple of years earlier than the end of his actual career.

Edited August 13, 2015 by Asashosakari

[Tsubame]

I think that is very doubtful to have so many maegashira-ranked yusho winners without Hakuho as mentioned in your start post.

[Kaiomitsuki]

What if Hakuho had never joined sumo?

Kaio Y1w on the Hatsu 2005 Banzuke...

Aki 2004 Kaio 5th Yusho 13-2 (with a win against Hakuho on the Day 2)

Kyushu 2004 Jun-Yusho 12-3 (13-2 without the lost against Hakuho on Day 10).... Kettei-sen against Asashoryu.... Yusho or not after the Kettei-sen... but Yokozuna promotion ;)

[kosomo]

very interesting post. enjoyable hypothetical.

I agree that Hakuho's complete dominance has had far reaching implications within sumo, and things would look VERY different without him.

[yorikiried by fate]

And to play devil's advocate about Asashoryu - perhaps he'd have finished with fewer yusho without Hakuho in the mix? Without a strong challenger testing him his motivation to continue butting heads with the NSK might well have hit rock-bottom a couple of years earlier than the end of his actual career.

Sacrilege! Heresy!

[Seijakuzan]

And to play devil's advocate about Asashoryu - perhaps he'd have finished with fewer yusho without Hakuho in the mix? Without a strong challenger testing him his motivation to continue butting heads with the NSK might well have hit rock-bottom a couple of years earlier than the end of his actual career.

Then who has kept Hakuho going since Asashoryu retired? Harumafuji and Kakuryu aren't bad yokozuna, but the deck is stacked against them from day 1 of every basho. Hakuho hasn't slowed down a bit since his major competition has retired.

[Asashosakari]

Then who has kept Hakuho going since Asashoryu retired?

Futabayama? Taiho? ;-) I don't think Hakuho and Asashoryu are really comparable where that is concerned. Asashoryu never struck me as a guy who consciously chased records, for one thing, while Hakuho certainly does.

[Treblemaker]

Then who has kept Hakuho going since Asashoryu retired?

Futabayama? Taiho? ;-) I don't think Hakuho and Asashoryu are really comparable where that is concerned. Asashoryu never struck me as a guy who consciously chased records, for one thing, while Hakuho certainly does.

Well, also the fact that Asa was older than Hak,

What would have been interesting is the hypothetical scenario of having them at the same age and peaking at the same time. Any takers?

[Asashosakari]

Well, also the fact that Asa was older than Hak,

Sure, but still pretty young by sumo standards. Soccergate happened shortly before Asashoryu turned 27, which is a potential early intai moment I was having in mind above. And I don't think it's that much of a leap of faith to assume that he was at least thinking about quitting. (Especially considering a minority of bigwigs outright called for him to be dismissed over that incident.)

[Asashosakari]

I think they were called Taiho and Kashiwado.

Ok, they're probably more dominant than that. But it's close.

I would consider Kashiwado the Harumafuji of his time, perhaps a bit better. A very good yokozuna, but far too inconsistent and injury-prone to have become an all-time great even in the absence of any other all-time greats. IMHO, the three guys who were done by the hardest by being in the "wrong" era are probably (in this order) Wajima, Akebono and Hokutoumi.

Kitanoumi-Wajima is arguably the best example we've seen of a long-time two-horse race of all-time greats, even though Taiho-Kashiwado is a lot more famous as an era.

[sekitori]

Just a thought. If there was no Kyokushuzan, Kyokutenho, or Kyokutenzan, in all probability there would no Hakuho. There also would in all likelihood be no Asashoryu, Harumafuji, Kakuryu and more recently, Terunofuji and Ichinojo--to name but a few. As a result, sumo would have remained a Japanese dominated activity. I have no idea how it would have fared without the presence of the Mongolians. But I do know that they have brought new life to sumo and have been widely accepted by the Japanese public. Sumo has regained all of the popularity it once lost and I believe that Mongolian rikishis have had much to do with that success.

I personally am very glad that Kyokushuzan, Kyokutenho, etal., after having initial thoughts about leaving sumo and returning to Mongolia, decided to remain in Japan and continue with it. It was to sumo's great benefit that they did.

Edited August 14, 2015 by sekitori

[Asashosakari]

Just a thought. If there was no Kyokushuzan, Kyokutenho, or Kyokutenzan, in all probability there would no Hakuho. There also would in all likelihood be no Asashoryu, Harumafuji, Kakuryu and more recently, Terunofuji and Ichinojo--to name but a few. As a result, sumo would have remained a Japanese dominated activity. I have no idea how it would have fared without the presence of the Mongolians. But I do know that they have brought new life to sumo and have been widely accepted by the Japanese public. Sumo has regained all of the popularity it once lost and I believe that Mongolian rikishis have had much to do with that success.

I'll have to disagree with that completely. Both Takamisakari and Kaio probably sold more tickets in the previous decade than Asashoryu did, and while I consider this rather unfortunate: Endo alone might have sold more in the last couple of years than all Mongolians bar Hakuho and Asashoryu combined ever did. The presence of the Mongolians might well have kept up/improved the quality of the sumo on display, but IMHO that has almost nothing to do with actual audience appeal.

And of course, if Mongolia hadn't turned out to be such an easy and rich recruiting well, perhaps the Kyokai's members would have made more of an effort to branch out further, and Ozumo today would be a truly international competition rather than one oligopolized by rikishi from just two countries...

[sekitori]

Just a thought. If there was no Kyokushuzan, Kyokutenho, or Kyokutenzan, in all probability there would no Hakuho. There also would in all likelihood be no Asashoryu, Harumafuji, Kakuryu and more recently, Terunofuji and Ichinojo--to name but a few. As a result, sumo would have remained a Japanese dominated activity. I have no idea how it would have fared without the presence of the Mongolians. But I do know that they have brought new life to sumo and have been widely accepted by the Japanese public. Sumo has regained all of the popularity it once lost and I believe that Mongolian rikishis have had much to do with that success.

I'll have to disagree with that completely. Both Takamisakari and Kaio probably sold more tickets in the previous decade than Asashoryu did, and while I consider this rather unfortunate: Endo alone might have sold more in the last couple of years than all Mongolians bar Hakuho and Asashoryu combined ever did. The presence of the Mongolians might well have kept up/improved the quality of the sumo on display, but IMHO that has almost nothing to do with actual audience appeal.

And of course, if Mongolia hadn't turned out to be such an easy and rich recruiting well, perhaps the Kyokai's members would have made more of an effort to branch out further, and Ozumo today would be a truly international competition rather than one oligopolized by rikishi from just two countries...

Exactly what are you completely disagreeing with? That without Kyokushuzan, Kyokutenho, and the others there would be very few or no Mongolians in sumo? That while Japanese rikishis have been and always will be the favorites of Japanese fans, foreign rikishis, especially the Mongolians, haven't been accepted by those same fans? As for audience appeal, simply stated, many foreign rikishis do very good sumo and people spending money for tickets want to watch good sumo. If rikishis either win consistently, show possible future potential, or even put on a good show, people will pay to see them, no matter where they come from.

[Gurowake]

I think they were called Taiho and Kashiwado.

Ok, they're probably more dominant than that. But it's close.

I would consider Kashiwado the Harumafuji of his time, perhaps a bit better.

That's why the comment was deleted minutes later; I actually considered more heavily that while Kashiwado may have been promoted at the same time, he was as you said probably only as dominant as Harumafuji. It was just the first thing that popped into my head.

[Asashosakari]

Exactly what are you completely disagreeing with? That without Kyokushuzan, Kyokutenho, and the others there would be very few or no Mongolians in sumo? That while Japanese rikishis have been and always will be the favorites of Japanese fans, foreign rikishis, especially the Mongolians, haven't been accepted by those same fans? As for audience appeal, simply stated, many foreign rikishis do very good sumo and people spending money for tickets want to watch good sumo. If rikishis either win consistently, show possible future potential, or even put on a good show, people will pay to see them, no matter where they come from.

You implied that Mongolian rikishi specifically have played a major role in the recovery of sumo's popularity. I consider that to be a patently absurd notion, for the reasons indicated in my previous post. They're nice role players, but I highly doubt a sumo world without Mongolians would have been any worse off financially:

We'd probably have had an immensely popular yokozuna Kaio, and perhaps yokozunas Chiyotaikai and Tochiazuma. Kotomitsuki might have become ozeki earlier than he did, and we might have seen an ozeki Wakanosato (representing sumo hotbed Aomori) every bit as good as present-day Kisenosato. And most of all - without Asashoryu and Hakuho, Kotooshu would not only have been by far the most talented newcomer of the mid-2000s, he would have had much less opposition in his way. Perhaps he'd have stormed right through to the top like Akebono did 15 years earlier.

And that doesn't even cover how sumo might have been different over the last ~8 years with the likes of Kisenosato, Kotoshogiku and Goeido reaching the spotlight more quickly, and possibly playing Takanohana/Wakanohana to Kotooshu's Akebono. A lot of us non-Japanese fans might not be watching now in that alternate reality, but we're barely relevant to the financial success of Ozumo.

(Not to mention potential surprise developments further down - from what I've read, Nionoumi was considered one of the most fan-friendly rikishi all around when he was in the sekitori ranks. Now imagine there hadn't been around 10 Mongolian rikishi ahead of him and he had become more than the cup o' coffee maegashira that he was... For a comparable real-life development, one just needs to look at how Takanoyama's profile was raised when the yaocho scandal gave him a chance to break out. For that matter, imagine how an absence of Mongolians could have helped Takanoyama have that breakout earlier than 2011 giving him a longer sekitori career.)

Edited August 16, 2015 by Asashosakari

[sekitori]

Exactly what are you completely disagreeing with? That without Kyokushuzan, Kyokutenho, and the others there would be very few or no Mongolians in sumo? That while Japanese rikishis have been and always will be the favorites of Japanese fans, foreign rikishis, especially the Mongolians, haven't been accepted by those same fans? As for audience appeal, simply stated, many foreign rikishis do very good sumo and people spending money for tickets want to watch good sumo. If rikishis either win consistently, show possible future potential, or even put on a good show, people will pay to see them, no matter where they come from.

You implied that Mongolian rikishi specifically have played a major role in the recovery of sumo's popularity. I consider that to be a patently absurd notion, for the reasons indicated in my previous post. They're nice role players, but I highly doubt a sumo world without Mongolians would have been any worse off financially:

We'd probably have had an immensely popular yokozuna Kaio, and perhaps yokozunas Chiyotaikai and Tochiazuma. Kotomitsuki might have become ozeki earlier than he did, and we might have seen an ozeki Wakanosato (representing sumo hotbed Aomori) every bit as good as present-day Kisenosato. And most of all - without Asashoryu and Hakuho, Kotooshu would not only have been by far the most talented newcomer of the mid-2000s, he would have had much less opposition in his way. Perhaps he'd have stormed right through to the top like Akebono did 15 years earlier.

And that doesn't even cover how sumo might have been different over the last ~8 years with the likes of Kisenosato, Kotoshogiku and Goeido reaching the spotlight more quickly, and possibly playing Takanohana/Wakanohana to Kotooshu's Akebono. A lot of us non-Japanese fans might not be watching now in that alternate reality, but we're barely relevant to the financial success of Ozumo.

(Not to mention potential surprise developments further down - from what I've read, Nionoumi was considered one of the most fan-friendly rikishi all around when he was in the sekitori ranks. Now imagine there hadn't been around 10 Mongolian rikishi ahead of him and he had become more than the cup o' coffee maegashira that he was... For a comparable real-life development, one just needs to look at how Takanoyama's profile was raised when the yaocho scandal gave him a chance to break out. For that matter, imagine how an absence of Mongolians could have helped Takanoyama have that breakout earlier than 2011 giving him a longer sekitori career.)

No one has told me that I have had an absurd notion, especially a patently absurd one, in a very long time. Consider yourself to be the first to say so in recent times. By the way, if I were you, I would have used a stronger word to describe my notion. Idiotic, preposterous, insane, imbecilic, and even stupid come to mind. I believe you are basically a nicer person than I am and by using the word "absurd", I think you were just trying to be kind to me. :-)

Your statement uses words like "probably", "perhaps", "possibly", "imagine how", and "might have". You may be correct in your assumptions. And then again, "perhaps" you may not be. But since this thread is nothing but a matter of pure conjecture (What if there was no Hakuho?) and discussions based on conjecture get absolutely nowhere, I see no point in continuing my part any further. If anyone wants to add any comments concerning my absurd, idiotic, preposterous, insane, imbecilic, or stupid notions, feel free. I won't reply.

Edited August 17, 2015 by sekitori