Hokutoriki

[Araiwa]

why is anybody expecting Hokutoriki to get even close to 13-2 this basho

Because that is human nature. Everybody wants to see, what can't be seen right now and is never satisfied.

I mean look at Kotomitsuki, Miyabiyama, Tochinonada or even Chiyotenzan. When they had there first Makuuchibashos everybody couldn't wait to see them as Ozekis or Yokozuna. If they didn't make it (we know they didn't) we were disappointed. Many people get bored very fast when there are always the same rikishis who dominate. So they start to look for new talents, they want to have new talents (there are always exeptions I know). How often are the words used "he has a great potential" "he could become ozeki", "keep an eye of him in the future".

I think that could be one reason why so many Hokutoriki expect to go one with his superior sumo from last basho. But I think this is nothing bad. We all love to discuss about Futurestars. It was very exiting for me to see how Hokutoriki would do, or how Asasekiryu did last Basho. (at least the first days)

[Asashosakari]

Because that is human nature. Everybody wants to see, what can't be seen right now and is never satisfied.

Oh, certainly, I just don't understand how Hokutoriki of all people got picked for that. :-P I mean, I could understand people expecting Asasekiryu to do well last basho...it's not what I expected, but at least with 'sekiryu, there's still a lot of uncharted territory since he's still young and not quite as established in Makuuchi, so expecting him to have two great basho in a row seemed to make sense on some level.

Likewise, I can imagine people expecting Kokkai to go 13-2 this basho, or Kotomitsuki, or Tokitenku, or Hakuho. (Heck, even Wakanosato. :-D) But Hokutoriki's sumo hasn't changed one bit since he was a shin-nyumaku, and even last basho he didn't really do anything different, he just had better timing and that one last bit of extra power that spells the difference between winning and losing sometimes. Wishful thinking is one thing, but changing one's opinion of the guy by 180 degrees based on one single basho seems to be even beyond that. After all, if he had earned his sanyaku debut with a 9-6 or 10-5 (which wouldn't have been as spectacular, but still much better than his usual), would anybody be giving him a snowball's chance in hell of achieving kachi-koshi this basho? Nope. He'd just be part of the usual sanyaku cannonfodder, and everyone would have known it. But give him three more wins in one single basho, and suddenly he's considered a sanyaku mainstay even before he has proved anything.

BTW, watch out for the Pro-Miyabiyama Movement...you said that Miya didn't make it to Ozeki, and I think they might hunt you down and force you to watch The Best of Miyabiyama's Ozeki Career in response. B-)

Should be a short punishment session though. :-P Oops, now they're going to come after me, too... (Sigh...)

[Sasanishiki]

I must say I started skimming a lot of these messages as I read because I haven't followed this thread from the start.

However, we perhaps need to consider momentum and expectation as two key factors. This is not necessarily "mental toughness" per se, but does have an impact.

Momentum is something quite powerful, particularly as a basho moves on. A rikishi who is winning consistently or losing consistently (Hoku, just pick which basho) gets into a mindset, just as their opponents get into a mindset against them, in the lead up to a bout. If things are going well then you can pull out your skills without thinking about them (nodowa for example. This happens in all sports, and is commonly referred to as being "in the zone". If things are not going well then "the zone" seems a mysterious, distant place and you let your mind worry about this and that and don't often see the big picture clearly.

Expectation is also a big factor, and this can lead to pressure. Of course Hoku had this in the last basho when people were talking about him making a yusho race, but coping with expectation and pressure when things are going well for you is a little different. We must also remember that Hoku did so well and had this pressure on him only AFTER he had met the best wrestlers above him (all the Ozeki and Yokozuna in the first week if I remember).

This time there is expectation on him because he is sanyaku, and the presure to perform is now not about kachikoshi and improving as much as justifying his exalted rank and showing that he is sanyaku worthy. This is a little different one would expect. Instead of the expectation for 8 wins he now has at least that and more expected of him, as well as being a potentila yusho candidate. This comes partly from his good showing last time, but largely from the sanyaku rank that he holds (which of course is related to his last performance in no small part).

I'm not saying he isn't mentally tough, nor that he doesn't have the goods (but of course he may be proving that he doesn't), but all of these factors combine in different ways and different degrees for any athlete at various times in their careers. The truly exceptional athletes are able to surpass these, or ride out slumps in form and re-emerge.

The book is still open on Hoku.

[bennyloh]

Basically about Hokutri's very lousy performance, using one

[bennyloh]

Last Basho in every bout Sekiryu has, he spent a great deal of time in it.

Perhaps he should have spent less time, won a few more bouts, and he would be a Sekiwake now...are you seriously implying that Asasekiryu was in practice mode last basho and he could have easily performed better if he had wanted to? That sounds like rationalizing failure to me, and it's not very convincing.

Though both faced the same opponents at the same tournament both were doing different things. Hoku was doing thrusts mainly. Hoku spent very litlle time with the opponents because he was winning

Edited July 9, 2004 by bennyloh

[Zentoryu]

Agreed. Noticed he has spent enough time with each of his opponents, feeling at the same time assessing their strengths in the last tournament. I am sure he will perform better soon.

Forum: Ozumo Discussions

[Araiwa]

BTW, watch out for the Pro-Miyabiyama Movement...you said that Miya didn't make it to Ozeki, and I think they might hunt you down and force you to watch The Best of Miyabiyama's Ozeki Career in response. 

I know had made it to Ozeki. :-D But certainly he never lived up to peoples expectations. And when he won all of his 4 Bashos in the beginning of his career expectations where high.

Agree with Sekiryu. He is developing his sumo and last basho had some really strong bouts. He is too young to be called a one basho wonder. I have expactaions one him. :-P

[Naganoyama]

I can't say I was expecting Hokutoriki to be launching an ozeki challenge this basho, but I am surprised by quite how badly he is doing. Is it possible that, in the light of the heightened expectations on him, he has overtrained, perhaps done too much weight training, and is overtired?

[QttP]

I can't say I was expecting Hokutoriki to be launching an ozeki challenge this basho, but I am surprised by quite how badly he is doing. Is it possible that, in the light of the heightened expectations on him, he has overtrained, perhaps done too much weight training, and is overtired?

The fact that he held the yusho with both hands already last time and let it slip destroyed him. Completely. He will never be back. He's not good enough to win on skill alone when the mind isn't into it.

[Kashunowaka]

I can't say I was expecting Hokutoriki to be launching an ozeki challenge this basho, but I am surprised by quite how badly he is doing.  Is it possible that, in the light of the heightened expectations on him, he has overtrained, perhaps done too much weight training, and is overtired?

The fact that he held the yusho with both hands already last time and let it slip destroyed him. Completely. He will never be back. He's not good enough to win on skill alone when the mind isn't into it.

Yes, perhaps Hokutoriki will join Hayateumi in the very exclusive club of the One Time Sekiwake. :-|

[Araiwa]

Anybody remembers Kotofuji? He also was a one time Sekiwake and seems quite similar in the aspect of a one time wonder. The only difference is he was something like M#14 and had not that though boys to fight. And there even was no Yokozuna I think? After his Yusho he was his usual self again. I think this could also be Hokus destiny.

Ahh :-| bullshit, there were of course Asahifuji and Hokutoumi.

Edited July 10, 2004 by Araiwa

[paolo]

It still sounds unbelievable: on the last day of the last basho Hokutoriki had two

bouts, winning any of which he would have won the basho. Today he is already makekoshi after 8 days .....

[Stephanoshima]

A while ago, Toki had a 10-5 as M4 and even became Komosubi for one basho. Judging by his previous bashos, he should have been happy even with a 7-8 or 6-9 from M4, yet he pulled off a 10-5, a rather sensational result for him from that position. Yet, it was all a fluke, a statistical aberration. Maybe he was in truly great shape that basho, maybe he was lucky, maybe (rather, surely) there were favorable psychological effects at work, and what not. With all those and many more, mostly minor, influences, if you take a large enough sample (many rikishi over many bashos), you will get all kinds of those aberrations.

[Kashunowaka]

A while ago, Toki had a 10-5 as M4 and even became Komosubi for one basho. Judging by his previous bashos, he should have been happy even with a 7-8 or 6-9 from M4, yet he pulled off a 10-5, a rather sensational result for him from that position. Yet, it was all a fluke, a statistical aberration. Maybe he was in truly great shape that basho, maybe he was lucky, maybe (rather, surely) there were favorable psychological effects at work, and what not. With all those and many more, mostly minor, influences, if you take a large enough sample (many rikishi over many bashos), you will get all kinds of those aberrations.

I wouldn't call Toki's short komusubi reign a statistical aberration. Toki was in great shape a year ago, and rightfully deserved his komusubi slot. He was even very close to making it to sekiwake. Later, only extremely bad banzuke luck kept him from returning to sanyaku after Kyushu basho.

[hoshidango]

In any event I could NEVER guess what Hokutoriki is now at 0-9. I wonder if he wil be like 3-12 or 2-13 at this rate...

[Zuikakuyama]

Part of the collapse was probably due to him trying to improve his tachi-ai after all the grief he got from the higher-ups.

He does not lean down low like all the other present-day rikishi and merely brush his hands against the clay. (correct me if I am wrong, my understanding is that this style was quite common in the 60's).

So for the last months he was been trying to lean down like the rest of the rikishis. You can see that now. His hips actually is lower.

But since his oshi game is so timing based, a mismatch of his tachi-ai can easily result in lackluster results. The same is probably in Baseball when a batter changes his batting stance. A period of adjustement is needed.

So it is either persevere or just go back to the old style for him.

[Asashosakari]

In any event I could NEVER guess what Hokutoriki is now at 0-9. I wonder if he wil be like 3-12 or 2-13 at this rate...

I can see him getting 4 or 5 wins if he beats Shuzan tomorrow (gotta brake down that mental block), especially since his remaining opponents will probably be from the Kaiho/Aminishiki/Tochisakae banzuke area, rather than the sanyaku and joi-jin rikishi he hasn't faced yet (Taikai, Sato, Mickey, Kokkai). On the other hand, I wouldn't be shocked at all by a 2-13 at this point either.

And now I wonder what the worst-ever sanyaku debut was...darn, I don't have readily available stats for that...