Hokutoriki

[paolo]

Can somebody give an explanation of Hokutoriki's 0-4 ? In the last basho he appeared strong and self confident and motivated. Is it possible that his recent "training" with Asashoryu (losses, slaps on the face, "insults" and so on)

has broken his confidence in himself and his sumo, too ?

[kotooshu_bulgaria]

Hokutoriki has proven he is a joke! He lost four games in a row without showing his power from last basho. The only explanation I have, apart from the possible loss of confidence, is that the other top rikishi have taken the time to study him and found out his numerous weak spots. He will definitely be demoted from his rank for next basho. And he was so close to winning last basho...

[Fujisan]

Why so surprised?

This is exactly what has happened before over and over again-

A rikishi has a great basho only to be slapped down hard the following basho-

Check out Asasekiryu last basho following his 13-2 record in March.

[Zuikakuyama]

They all lack the mental toughness that is needed to succeed at the top levels.

[Asashosakari]

No, I don't think it's a mental problem, not primarily anyway. There just isn't anyone below Ozeki (except Wakanosato) who is physically strong enough and technically skilled enough to survive sanyaku-level competition on a constant basis.

I'll have to echo Fujisan here, it's no surprise really. It's always been like that, and it always will be. There's a reason that area of the banzuke is commonly called 'meat grinder', after all.

Rather than bemoan a lack of talent up there (whether the disappointment du jour is Hokutoriki or anybody else), how about being impressed about, say, Kyokutenho being ranked Maegashira 3 or above for two straight years now? That's pretty much the best level of performance that can be expected from anyone who's not a out-and-out Ozeki candidate, and he hardly gets any credit for it. (Nor would anyone else with similar performances, I suspect.) Those guys up there in reach of sanyaku are among the top 20 rikishi of their time (yes, even Hokutoriki)...not everyone can be an Ozeki or Yokozuna.

[Stephanoshima]

In the last basho he appeared strong and self confident and motivated. Is it possible that his recent "training" with Asashoryu (losses, slaps on the face, "insults" and so on) has broken his confidence in himself and his sumo, too ?

Sure, it's all Asashoryu's fault. Simply ignore the fact that the last time - previous to May 2004 - Hokutoriki managed two consecutive KKs was March and May 2002, that's a full two years ago. Also don't mention that he moved from M14 (5/2002) to M1 (5/2004) with a perfectly balanced record of 90-90. That's right, he moved from the bottom (not the very bottom, but quite close) to the top of the Maegashira ranks while not winning even one match more than he lost. Hardly a remarkable rikishi in my book, not only as far as statistics go, but also based on what I've seen of him on the dohyo. I regarded him as one of those one-basho wonders, just like Asasekiryu in the tournament before, and so far I've seen nothing that would me change my mind.

Edited July 7, 2004 by Stephanoshima

[Mark Buckton]

They all lack the mental toughness that is needed to succeed at the top levels.

My old grandmother (rest her soul) used to say "think what you say before you begin it or you'll open your mouth and put your foot in it".

Z - the vast majority survive at Makunouchi (the top level) without ever succeeding. For someone who has a self confessed liking-cum-reliance? on nicotine I find a question about 'mental toughness' confusing yet amusing.

However, if your unclear statement of 'top level' refers to Sanyaku I'd say "Who are you to judge?" - and on what experience do you base such a judgement?

Sat in SF and all I'd stick to judging seafood salad down at the wharf rather than what it takes to make Sanyaku, Makunouchi or even Jonokuchi.

[hoshidango]

I don't say mental one is the biggest reason, yet I feel there is a fair portion of it. He looks like lacking confidence & deashi also. I WAS surprised 0-4 though... I wonder how he would end up being this tournament. Perhaps like 5-10 or 6-9 level again?

[Naganoyama]

I think mental and physical state both play a part. Consistency in the sense of physical form is difficult to maintain for most rikishi even at the rikishi's average level. He will sometimes do better and sometimes worse. If he has given an outstanding performance well above his average level, he is likely to show a dip at the next basho. If you add to that the stress and pressure on the rikishi due to people's expectations after he has produced 12/13 wins and won or almost won the yusho, then the likelihood of a top performance is drastically reduced. Even the best rikishi need a feeling of confidence and the ability to be relaxed on the dohyo.

When we watch the ozeki who are the 'top guys' trying to duplicate a top performance to win the coveted yokozuna promotion, and we see them fail, time after time, against much the same opposition as they faced in the previous basho, why should we be surprised by a junior guy failing at the subsequent basho? He may even be facing drastically stronger opposition the second time round if he has climbed from M12, say, on the strength of his performance (although of course that is not true of Hokutoriki this time).

[bennyloh]

Why so surprised?

This is exactly what has happened before over and over again-

A rikishi has a great basho only to be slapped down hard the following basho-

Check out Asasekiryu last basho following his 13-2 record in March.

Sekiryu took advantage of last basho for practice, though he lost, he took the trouble to know and assess his opponents style and strength. Hoku is still in slumberland and was gently swayed (face downwards) to sleep on the first day by Kotonowaka-a slow and subtle giant who only won once so far (beating only Hoku). Hoku should spend meaningful times like what Sekiryu did in the past. He hasn't much choice considering that thrusts is what he knows. To be a yokuzuna and not being an all-rounder? How can that be? Very inadequate, falling everywhere for no reason!

[Asashosakari]

Sekiryu took advantage of last basho for practice, though he lost, he took the trouble to know and assess his opponents style and strength. (...) Hoku should spend meaningful times like what Sekiryu did in the past.

I'm not sure I understand. Last basho wasn't the first time Asasekiryu faced sanyaku-level opposition, it was the third such basho. What was he doing last basho that he wasn't doing the two tournaments before? (And why did it result in such a horrible record?)

I'd also be curious to know how Asasekiryu's performance two months ago was more meaningful than Hokutoriki's during the same basho (they faced the same opponents after all, only that one of them finished 13-2 and the other 3-12)...

[Zuikakuyama]

What I meant by "top levels" is sanyaku. After all, why would I be referring to Makuuichi as the "top level" when we are discussing remarkable performances by people that are already in Makuuichi?

With regards to consistency, with the exception of Wakanosato and probably Kotomistuki, no one in recent memory has been able to retain their sanyaku rankings for 2 bashos in a row. The moment they get promoted, they immediately gets their butt whacked with KK at least for 2 or more bashos, and fall out of Jon-ichi.

The commentators are always talking that so and so have the goods to remain at the top levels, yet they dont. Almost any sport, mental toughness counts for a great deal. The same syndrome happens with the perennial Yokozuna and ozeki candidates, and that to me, shows a lack of mental toughness and confidence in onself that results in mental lapses.

[Asashosakari]

What I meant by "top levels" is sanyaku.

Edited July 8, 2004 by Asashosakari

[bennyloh]

Sekiryu took advantage of last basho for practice, though he lost, he took the trouble to know and assess his opponents style and strength. (...) Hoku should spend meaningful times like what Sekiryu did in the past.

I'm not sure I understand. Last basho wasn't the first time Asasekiryu faced sanyaku-level opposition, it was the third such basho. What was he doing last basho that he wasn't doing the two tournaments before? (And why did it result in such a horrible record?)

I'd also be curious to know how Asasekiryu's performance two months ago was more meaningful than Hokutoriki's during the same basho (they faced the same opponents after all, only that one of them finished 13-2 and the other 3-12)...

Last Basho in every bout Sekiryu has, he spent a great deal of time in it.

Though both faced the same opponents at the same tournament both were doing different things. Hoku was doing thrusts mainly. Hoku spent very litlle time with the opponents because he was winning with same style of throw and in seconds. Now in this tournament he continues the only thing that he knows but without success. He was an attacker in the last and still is in this (with the same style) but it is not working for him this time.

[Asashosakari]

Last Basho in every bout Sekiryu has, he spent a great deal of time in it.

Perhaps he should have spent less time, won a few more bouts, and he would be a Sekiwake now...are you seriously implying that Asasekiryu was in practice mode last basho and he could have easily performed better if he had wanted to? That sounds like rationalizing failure to me, and it's not very convincing.

Though both faced the same opponents at the same tournament both were doing different things. Hoku was doing thrusts mainly. Hoku spent very litlle time with the opponents because he was winning  with same style of throw and in seconds.

So what do you propose, that Hokutoriki should have gone into yotsu in all bouts so he could study his opponents better? I'm sorry, but that's what keiko is for, not the hon-basho.

[bennyloh]

Last Basho in every bout Sekiryu has, he spent a great deal of time in it.

Perhaps he should have spent less time, won a few more bouts, and he would be a Sekiwake now...are you seriously implying that Asasekiryu was in practice mode last basho and he could have easily performed better if he had wanted to? That sounds like rationalizing failure to me, and it's not very convincing.

Though both faced the same opponents at the same tournament both were doing different things. Hoku was doing thrusts mainly. Hoku spent very litlle time with the opponents because he was winning

Edited July 8, 2004 by bennyloh

[QttP]

I proposed he should not stick on solely to thrusts. Already this is the fourth fight and (including the may tournament where he lost Hakuho- the fifth well, maybe more) If he should be 11-4 and a yokuzuna at the end of this tournament- it is still not credible in everybody's mind. You can't be falling everywhere like a drunkard!

What the hell are you talking about?

[bennyloh]

I proposed he should not  stick on solely to thrusts. Already this is the fourth fight and (including the may tournament where he lost  Hakuho- the fifth well,  maybe more) If he should be 11-4 and a yokuzuna at the end of this tournament- it is still not credible in everybody's mind. You can't  be falling everywhere like a drunkard!

What the hell are you talking about?

Basically about Hokutri's very lousy performance, using one same type of throw which has failed him all the time until now.

[Jakusotsu]

Basically about Hokutri's very lousy performance, using one  same type of throw which has failed him all the time  until now.

Now I'm lost as well: Throw? Hokutoriki? Failed until now? Beats me...

[Naganoyama]

I remember what happened when Hokutoriki tried to get involved with yotsu-zumo against Wakanosato. It wasn't very convincing. His bouts against the ozeki and yokozuna were, though.

Would you really advise him to play to his weaknesses?

Edit: remove trailing quote tag

Edited July 8, 2004 by Naganoyama

[paolo]

Just to go back to my originary question (before people start to insult one another ...): I know that some rikishi's happen alternate good results to bad ones. Typically a high numbered maegashira (say for example a Maegashira 10) fights versus other Maegashira's of the same level (M8 to M16) in the first 10 days or so. If he is in a particularly good shape he can get 9-10 wins. Only in the last 5 days he is paired with some higher level rikishi's, then he can get maybe another couple of wins out of 5. In the end he will have something like 10-11 wins and he advances to high level Maegashira. In the following tournament he will have

to fight 7-8 strong men since the beginning, and in the end he will very quickly go makekoshi and back to low rank maegashira. And so on ... This is more or less

what happened to Asasekiryu's 13-2.

But Hokutoriki was Maegashira 1, and he won versus the Yokozuna, all 3 Ozeki's,

Sekiwake, Komusubi's, high ranked Maegashira's ! I mean: his 13-2 was a true 13-2, with wins against strong men and not against the lower maegashira's... I can understand that he can be in a worse shape than in May, but 0-5 in the first 5 days ..... And he has not fighted against many of the strongest men yet ... That is why I presume that something is his self confidence might have broken, if he doesn' t have any physical problems...

[Gusoyama]

Go on as you will about sanyaku being difficult, but I agree with paolo. Hoku was M1 last basho, and is facing the same guys he did last time out, more or less. This isn't some M12 that has been chucked up into sanyaku, he was only promoted 5 spots. No, I didn't expect him to do well.

[Zentoryu]

Last basho I wrote that I felt Hokutoriki is a mid to upper level Maegashira who was having himself the tournament of a lifetime. The type of tournament that most rikishi of his skill set, or skill level, can only dream of having. There was, and has been, no indication from his past performance in Makuuchi that last basho's amazing showing was anything more than a fluke.

Hokutoriki, like Toki, is a one-trick pony. He has one skill, the thrusting Nodo-wa attack that, no matter who the opponent is, can be particularly devastating when on target. It is the one skill he possesses that is of Sanyaku level.

When everything works perfectly for Hoku, he can be nearly unbeatable. If his Tachi-ai is perfect, if his footwork and balance is perfect, if his thrusting attack is quick and on target, he is extremely difficult to beat, even for Sanyaku rikishi. He has rarely been able to get all of this working for him day after day in the same tournament.

Last basho that changed. Last basho, everything went perfectly for Hokutoriki. His footwork and balance were perfect, his nodo-wa were lightning quick and on target, and his tachi-ai, the key to it all, was as good as it had ever been.

All of these things have disappeared for him this basho. His footwork, and therefore his balance, has been extremely sloppy. His tachi-ai very poor, often looking like Tosanoumi. His nodo-wa has been off target and not quite as forceful. In other words, he is having the exact opposite type of basho as he did last tournament. Where everything worked perfectly for him in Natsu, nothing has gone right in Nagoya.

In the Nagoya basho we are seeing the Hokutoriki a lot of us thought we would see last basho. Though I have to admit he's doing worse than even I believed he would.

Edited July 8, 2004 by Zentoryu

[Asashosakari]

But Hokutoriki was Maegashira 1, and he won versus the Yokozuna, all 3 Ozeki's,

Sekiwake, Komusubi's, high ranked Maegashira's ! I mean: his 13-2 was a true 13-2, with wins against strong men and not against the lower maegashira's... I can understand that he can be in a worse shape than in May, but 0-5 in the first 5 days .....

Hokutoriki so far spent 4 basho in the meat-grinder, and these were his results:

2002.11: M02w, 5-10 (started 2-7)

2003.09: M02w, 4-11 (managed to lose his last 5 bouts after a decent start)

2004.01: M01w, 5-10 (started 1-6)

2004.05: M01w, 13-2 (well, we know about this one)

Given those numbers, why is anybody expecting Hokutoriki to get even close to 13-2 this basho? The guy had one outstanding tournament two months ago with everything working in his favour for some reason, much like has happened to many other guys before him. (Although rarely at such a high rank, I'll give you that.) And just like almost all of those guys, he's probably going to suffer a nasty fall this time around.

All too many people seem to assume that Hokutoriki has miraculously morphed into a different rikishi since last basho. He hasn't. Yes, he won against almost all sanyaku opponents last basho. But he lost against most of them every time he had faced them before. Why does one basho count for more than the entire rest of his career path? I'm afraid I just don't get it. One swallow does not a summer make, and all that...

[Kaikitsune Makoto]

My take is that Hokutoriki never had a defense, he will never be competent in yotsu against any yotsu-rikishi. It just doesn't go that way. You can't make so major changes at top level. Everyone plays with their strengths. Best rikishi have many strengths to choose from.

Hokutoriki will not improve his chances against sanyaku yotsu guys even if he does tremendous amount of yotsu-keiko. It is still too far away from the level needed. So of course he needs to do his own sumo which is tsuki/oshi and nothing but tsuki/oshi with occasional hiki-attempt.

Pushers often fly with the momentum. When they are in the groove, the pressure is enormous. Chiyotaikai's best sumo is insanely strong (not lately but some time ago) and Hokutoriki's pushing power is formidable too. Now it is gone though. Whether he has overtrained or is just tired, his touch is gone and explosiveness modest.

He is getting killed in every bout. Totally annihilated. Add massive self confidence plummet with the without a doubt a shy feeling of "After last basho, I was appraised, now I do this kind pathetic of sumo...", maybe that makes the final icing on this misery of his. He would need a win NOW.

In pre-basho keiko he went 6-20 at Naruto-work out and after that 1-22 against Asashoryu in two sessions. He was reportedly showing pitiful sumo most of the time so even pre-basho news gave some ideas of what his condition might be like.