Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2014

[Chiyozakura]

How certain is it that Aoyama will go all the way to sekiwake? And not kamusubi. That would be great news.

Set in stone as we talk.

I am surprised to read that it is set in stone. I would agree that it is the most probable outcome but still Takekaze could retain his rank with his 7-8 and Ichinojo's convincing 13-2 could propel him to Sekiwake. That would leave Aoiyama as Komusubi. After all just some basho ago Goeido remained ahead of Tochiozan despite having two wins less, reminding us that there are not clear cut rules on the banzuke.

[shumitto]

How certain is it that Aoyama will go all the way to sekiwake? And not kamusubi. That would be great news.

Set in stone as we talk.

I am surprised to read that it is set in stone. I would agree that it is the most probable outcome but still Takekaze could retain his rank with his 7-8 and Ichinojo's convincing 13-2 could propel him to Sekiwake. That would leave Aoiyama as Komusubi. After all just some basho ago Goeido remained ahead of Tochiozan despite having two wins less, reminding us that there are not clear cut rules on the banzuke.

He was joking.

[Feginowaka]

After all just some basho ago Goeido remained ahead of Tochiozan despite having two wins less, reminding us that there are not clear cut rules on the banzuke.

I reckon that he stayed at his Sekiwake east spot, because the NSK wanted him there as he was on an Ozeki-run.

Promoting a Sekiwake west to Ozeki does not look "good".

However. it happened before (Dejima 1999, Takanonami 1994, Akebono 1992), but maybe the new committee wanted to rather promote Goeido from the Sekiwake east spot (In a state of confusion...)

[Gurowake]

How certain is it that Aoyama will go all the way to sekiwake? And not kamusubi. That would be great news.

Set in stone as we talk.

I am surprised to read that it is set in stone. I would agree that it is the most probable outcome but still Takekaze could retain his rank with his 7-8 and Ichinojo's convincing 13-2 could propel him to Sekiwake. That would leave Aoiyama as Komusubi. After all just some basho ago Goeido remained ahead of Tochiozan despite having two wins less, reminding us that there are not clear cut rules on the banzuke.

A 7-8 only maintains their rank if there's no candidate to replace them, and then only if they started on the east side. There would have to be a truly profound lack of qualified rikishi to keep someone at a west sanyaku rank with a 7-8; it's never actually happened. Unlike last basho where Takekaze was merely the next highest ranked rikishi when they needed another Sekiwake and wouldn't necessarily have taken a spot from a 7-8 east Sekiwake, this basho we have both Aoiyama and Ichinojo with solid promotions to Sekiwake. Even Ikioi with a by-the-numbers promotion to Komusubi would probably take a spot from a 7-8 east Sekiwake, and almost certainly from such a west Sekiwake.

In addition to the by-the-numbers approach that has Aoiyama as the top candidate, they give preferential treatment to those that manage a promotable record while facing all the top ranked guys. After Hatsu 2010, M1 Toyonoshima made Sekiwake with 8-7 while M6 Aminishiki settled for Komusubi with 11-4. There is absolutely no one below Ozeki who should merit consideration for a higher rank than Aoiyama. The only ones with a better record are Ichinojo (Ok, maybe he'll end up Sekiwake east) and Tochiozan who was 5 ranks lower with only 1 more win, and no one ranked between him and the Ozeki even has a KK. It's not absolutely set in stone (well, it might be by now, but we just don't know) but it is practically inconceivable that it won't happen. Certainly they may decide to do things differently than they normally do, but we have no reason to believe that right now.

[Asashosakari]

The idea that Takekaze might remain at sekiwake is worth considering, but if it actually happens it sure won't come at Aoiyama's expense because:

There is absolutely no one below Ozeki who should merit consideration for a higher rank than Aoiyama.

This.

I'll be highly surprised if the next sanyaku ranks are something other than Se Aoiyama, Sw/Ke/Kw Takekaze/Ikioi/Ichinojo, the only thing at issue is how they'll slot in the lower trio.

[Asashosakari]

Pitching in my makushita-joi guess:

Kizenryu (Ms7e 6-1) Ms1 Akiseyama (J13e 6-9)

Wakanoshima (Ms5w 4-3) Ms2 Onosho (Ms8e 5-2)

Takatoshi (Ms9e 5-2) Ms3 Yoshiazuma (J11w 4-11)

Abiko (Ms42e 7-0 Y) Ms4 Kyokutaisei (J14e 5-10)

Yamatofuji (Ms10e 5-2) Ms5 Keitenkai (Ms10w 5-2)

Masunoyama (J7w 1-4-10) Ms6 Masunoumi (Ms8w 4-3)

Kawabata (Ms4e 3-4) Ms7 Horyuyama (Ms4w 3-4)

Chiyonokuni (J13w 3-5-7) Ms8 Dairaido (Ms22e 6-1)

Terutsuyoshi (Ms15e 5-2) Ms9 Kawanari (Ms12e 4-3)

Chiyoshoma (Ms13e 4-3) Ms10 Akua (Ms17w 5-2)

Kairyu (Ms18e 5-2) Ms11 Sasanoyama (Ms28w 6-1)

Ishiura (Ms6w 3-4) Ms12 Horikiri (Ms7e 3-4)

Kotokobai (Ms15w 4-3) Ms13 Meisei (Ms16e 4-3)

Irie (Ms16w 4-3) Ms14 Gochozan (Ms17e 4-3)

Nishikigi (Ms24w 5-2) Ms15 Mitoyutaka (Ms19e 4-3)

I suspect I'm slightly too harsh on Masunoyama (could stay ahead of the 5-2's) and Chiyonokuni (could stay ahead of the 3-4's), but then the actual committee was quite harsh on kyujo rikishi last time, too.

And looking back at my juryo guess from earlier...

Sadanofuji (M12w 4-11) J1 Tokitenku (M16e 6-9)

Kagamio (M16w 6-9) J2 Chiyoo (J8w 9-6)

Satoyama (J9w 9-3-3) J3 Seiro (J10w 9-6)

Asahisho (J11e 8-7) J4 Shotenro (J3e 6-9)

Daido (J12e 8-7) J5 Kitaharima (J12w 8-7)

Tosayutaka (J4e 6-9) J6 Sotairyu (J2w 5-10)

Fujiazuma (J6w 7-8) J7 Asasekiryu (J7e 7-8)

Is it just me or is that a pretty sad upper half we're going to get next basho?

- two in-prime elevator rikishi (Sadanofuji, Kagamio)

- a past-his-prime veteran, now also consigned to elevatoring (Tokitenku)

- two youngish guys with occasional glimpses of talent who both spent much of the year heavily bandaged and have yet to show they'll be able to advance past juryo (Chiyoo, Seiro)

- two youngish guys with makuuchi talent who have been derailed by whatever recently (Asahisho, Fujiazuma)

- two undersized veterans with cup o' coffee makuuchi experience, one of whom just ended his basho with an injury (Satoyama, Sotairyu)

- three past-their-prime veterans who look far from makuuchi quality now (Shotenro, Daido, Asasekiryu)

- a sort-of veteran returning from major injury who no longer looks all that makuuchi-worthy either (Tosayutaka)

- and a guy who will probably get murdered at this height (Kitaharima).

Edited October 1, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Kintamayama]

If Takekaze remains at Sekiwake with his 7-8 I'm leaving Sumo for good. Never happened, and never should. If it does, I'm back in baseball.

[shumitto]

Is it just me or is that a pretty sad upper half we're going to get next basho?

I thought the same about Juryo as a whole this basho. Without Tochinoshin, Tokushoryu would probaly have dominated the action, which doesn't look very good. At least the bottom half will have something worth watching in the form of the upcoming talents next time.

[HenryK]

I think you simply are mistaken, and an Ozeki run is perfectly possible from M1. It's been a while since the last successful run, but there were five such Ozeki promotions in the six-basho era.

I was so sure because I read on some reasonably credible source.

Now I remembered, it was in the German Wikipedia Ozeki entry. Not that I consider it overly credible, but not the worst of sources.

This wrong information still resides there, maybe anybody can clear it up in a free minute.

I guess all reading the German Wikipedia have been fooled, me included! :-D

[Jakusotsu]

Without Tochinoshin, Tokushoryu would probaly have dominated the action, which doesn't look very good.

While I generally agree, I would have been pleased with another Satoyama yusho.

[ALAKTORN]

If Takekaze remains at Sekiwake with his 7-8 I'm leaving Sumo for good. Never happened, and never should. If it does, I'm back in baseball.

Didn’t it happen recently with Gōeidō? Edit: wow it happened over a year ago and it was from E to W… Edited October 2, 2014 by ALAKTORN

[Kintamayama]

If Takekaze remains at Sekiwake with his 7-8 I'm leaving Sumo for good. Never happened, and never should. If it does, I'm back in baseball.

Didn’t it happen recently with Gōeidō? Edit: wow it happened over a year ago and it was from E to W…

Right. Half a rank. Takekaze is west. No way he stays as Sekiwake.

[Chiyozakura]

If Takekaze remains at Sekiwake with his 7-8 I'm leaving Sumo for good. Never happened, and never should. If it does, I'm back in baseball.

Didn’t it happen recently with Gōeidō? Edit: wow it happened over a year ago and it was from E to W…

Right. Half a rank. Takekaze is west. No way he stays as Sekiwake.

As I have written above I would place Aoiyama at Sekiwakeas well but my comment was based on the "set in stone" comment. I agree with most what has been written in this thread, but I am also sure that a year ago people here would have written that a 10-5 Sekiwake always ends up ahead of a 8-7 Sekiwake on the next banzuke. That turned out to be wrong. And in hindsight you can deliver a good argument for it as Feginowaka has. My intention was to show that you can never be absolutely sure about certain aspects of the banzuke. Who knows what arguments will be brought up for Takekaze and Ichinojo or against Aoiyama in the internal discussions? A 10-5 at M#3 is not a must for Sekiwake promotion.

[krindel]

If Takekaze remains at Sekiwake with his 7-8 I'm leaving Sumo for good. Never happened, and never should. If it does, I'm back in baseball.

Didn’t it happen recently with Gōeidō? Edit: wow it happened over a year ago and it was from E to W…

Right. Half a rank. Takekaze is west. No way he stays as Sekiwake.

As I have written above I would place Aoiyama at Sekiwakeas well but my comment was based on the "set in stone" comment. I agree with most what has been written in this thread, but I am also sure that a year ago people here would have written that a 10-5 Sekiwake always ends up ahead of a 8-7 Sekiwake on the next banzuke. That turned out to be wrong. And in hindsight you can deliver a good argument for it as Feginowaka has. My intention was to show that you can never be absolutely sure about certain aspects of the banzuke. Who knows what arguments will be brought up for Takekaze and Ichinojo or against Aoiyama in the internal discussions? A 10-5 at M#3 is not a must for Sekiwake promotion.

That's the thing, there's absolutely no argument to be made in favor of not demoting at least half a rank someone who went MK when there are viable candidates to take his place. The root of the banzuke making process is KK means up, MK means down and it will take some very weird situations to make them even consider bending that rule. There's nothing even remotely weird about the current situation, there's an abundance of viable candidates.

[Chiyozakura]

If Takekaze remains at Sekiwake with his 7-8 I'm leaving Sumo for good. Never happened, and never should. If it does, I'm back in baseball.

Didn’t it happen recently with Gōeidō? Edit: wow it happened over a year ago and it was from E to W…

Right. Half a rank. Takekaze is west. No way he stays as Sekiwake.

As I have written above I would place Aoiyama at Sekiwakeas well but my comment was based on the "set in stone" comment. I agree with most what has been written in this thread, but I am also sure that a year ago people here would have written that a 10-5 Sekiwake always ends up ahead of a 8-7 Sekiwake on the next banzuke. That turned out to be wrong. And in hindsight you can deliver a good argument for it as Feginowaka has. My intention was to show that you can never be absolutely sure about certain aspects of the banzuke. Who knows what arguments will be brought up for Takekaze and Ichinojo or against Aoiyama in the internal discussions? A 10-5 at M#3 is not a must for Sekiwake promotion.

That's the thing, there's absolutely no argument to be made in favor of not demoting at least half a rank someone who went MK when there are viable candidates to take his place. The root of the banzuke making process is KK means up, MK means down and it will take some very weird situations to make them even consider bending that rule. There's nothing even remotely weird about the current situation, there's an abundance of viable candidates.

You are wrong. The "rule" is that a kachi koshi means you will not be demoted. There have been cases in the past where rikishi stayed at exactly the same rank even among the Maegashira. A nice example is Mitoizumi in Kyushu 1991. He stayed at M#2 despite his 8-7 although it would have been possible to drop Akebono from Komusubi to M#2 to make place for him.

[Fukurou]

A few recent examples of MK and KK not impacting rank.

Kokokurai was 7-8 mk at M13W during the July basho, and remained at M13W for September (and went 7-8 again)

Azumaryuu was also 7-8 mk, at M14W, in July, and remained at M14W for September.

In May, Sekiwake East Goeido had 8 wins, while Sekiwake West Tochiozan had 10. In July, Goeido remained SE and Tochiozan remained SW. Of course, Goeido was glued to the SE position from November until promoted for the September tournament.

[Asashosakari]

A nice example is Mitoizumi in Kyushu 1991. He stayed at M#2 despite his 8-7 although it would have been possible to drop Akebono from Komusubi to M#2 to make place for him.

I wouldn't call that a nice example, considering it involved three maegashira who all stayed at their rank (M2e-M3e) with 8 wins, because it would have been even more awkward to promote only one or two of them and put Akebono somewhere in between. And dropping him from komusubi all the way to M3e just wasn't going to happen. It actually supports krindel's point that rikishi tend to only stay at their rank with 8-7 or 7-8 when there's no "regular" solution.

[Chiyozakura]

A nice example is Mitoizumi in Kyushu 1991. He stayed at M#2 despite his 8-7 although it would have been possible to drop Akebono from Komusubi to M#2 to make place for him.

I wouldn't call that a nice example, considering it involved three maegashira who all stayed at their rank (M2e-M3e) with 8 wins, because it would have been even more awkward to promote only one or two of them and put Akebono somewhere in between. And dropping him from komusubi all the way to M3e just wasn't going to happen. It actually supports krindel's point that rikishi tend to only stay at their rank with 8-7 or 7-8 when there's no "regular" solution.

I should have checked the example better, still if I cared to search long enough I would probably come up with an example that fits.

But the whole discussion is moot anyway as my whole point was that Aoiyama's Sekiwake promotion is highly likely but not set in stone. In hindsight you have an argument for Goeido staying ahead of Tochiozan in that basho but I do not think anyone expected the outcome. How many players had that right in Gtb? I remember people here believing it was a blatant mistake. As far as I know banzuke history does not support the case at all. After all there have been Ozeki promotions from Sekiwake West positions and I do not remember having read anywhere that there were discussions about it. And I am sure for each case you can find argumentation why that was a special case: Several repromotions, in Dejima's case Kaio as East Sekiwake was an Ozeki contender himself, in Takanonami's case it was a double promotion, Akebono was a gaijin and so the NSK would not want to look racist not promoting him despite 34 wins in lower Sanyaku and in Kiyokuni's case Ozeki promotion was handled more freely than is is now or he was from Akita which had not had an Ozeki since WW2 or he was from Isegahama Beya which was run by a potential Rijicho successor at that time.Tochihikari was even promoted from a Sekiwake Haridashi position. But that was again an exception because he was a Komusubi in the basho before?

I think with the Goeido-Tochiozan case they broke what we all believed to be a clear rule and later on we came up with an explanation that helps us justify the decision.

But reality is: Nothing is set in stone and they could come up with an "innovative" solution again and we just had to accept it (or as in Kintamayama's case leave for good...)

[Asashosakari]

But the whole discussion is moot anyway as my whole point was that Aoiyama's Sekiwake promotion is highly likely but not set in stone.

It's just that it's a very trivial point to make; everybody here realizes that there's no strict formula for arranging a banzuke. I don't think anybody assumed that "set in stone" means 100% certainty even before you brought it up.

[Chiyozakura]

But the whole discussion is moot anyway as my whole point was that Aoiyama's Sekiwake promotion is highly likely but not set in stone.

It's just that it's a very trivial point to make; everybody here realizes that there's no strict formula for arranging a banzuke. I don't think anybody assumed that "set in stone" means 100% certainty even before you brought it up.

You think so? I had the impression that people were pretty upset about certain banzuke positions in the past,even though they had followed sumo for quite some time. And the discussion was started by somebody asking whether it was safe that Aoiyama would become Sekiwake and got the answer that it was set in stone. If I do not know much about a sport and ask about an outcome in a forum I expect the answer "set in stone" to mean that it is indeed a sure thing.

[Asashosakari]

You think so? I had the impression that people were pretty upset about certain banzuke positions in the past,even though they had followed sumo for quite some time.

How does that matter? In the situation we're looking at now, Aoiyama is the next East Sekiwake at least 99 times out of 100. You seem to be saying that the lack of fixed rules means people shouldn't be surprised or upset if the committee actually uses the dumb 1% option instead. With that attitude we might as well cancel GTB and stop discussing the banzuke altogether because we'll be presented with the Word of God on banzuke release day and that's all anybody needs.

[Asashosakari]

On another note, over on 2ch they've offered the amusing observation that we're about to witness just how whacked-out the current makushita tsukedashi qualification guidelines are:

Kawabata:

2014.03 Ms15Td 5-2

2014.05 Ms8w 4-3

2014.07 Ms6e 4-3

2014.09 Ms4e 3-4

2014.11 Ms7 or so

Abiko

2014.03 Jk12w 7-0 Y

2014.05 Jd11w 7-0 Y

2014.07 Sd21e 6-1

2014.09 Ms42e 7-0 Y

2014.11 Ms4 or so

They really should go back to just starting any reasonably capable college grad at the bottom of makushita. Or heck, start 'em all in jonokuchi if you must.

[Jakusotsu]

To be fair, we don't know yet how Abiko will be doing above Ms15. As by now, they're comparing apples and oranges.

Edit: After reading Asashosakari's post again, I realized I might have been missing the point. B-)

Edited October 2, 2014 by Jakusotsu

[Asashosakari]

To be fair, we don't know yet how Abiko will be doing above Ms15. As by now, they're comparing apples and oranges.

Edit: After reading Asashosakari's post again, I realized I might have been missing the point. B-)

Yeah, I'm not making an "Abiko is better than Kawabata" argument, just a "they're clearly not different enough that it's justified to start one so much higher than the other". We just rarely get such an obvious demonstration of it, so I thought it was worth highlighting.

[yorikiried by fate]

What's the bloody point here, anyway?

So let's ask the prime suspect: "YBF, did you say that Aoiyama's promotion to Sekiwake is, and I quote here, 'set in stone as we talk'?"

YBF: I did.

So, when you said that, you were only joking, right?

YBF: No, I wasn't.

But how can you make such a ridiciously absolut statement, when even the most recent examples [blahblahGoeidoblahbla] show that there is no certainty [blahbanzukemakingbla].

YBF: Firstly, Goeido's staying at the rank of Se was a mistake. It should never have happened, as he should likewise never have been promoted to Ozeki.

But secondly, and much more importantly, whereTF are we here? Is this all of a sudden some ultra-liberal Californian think tank concerned with the promotion of language hygiene? When *I* say "This and this *is* that and that", it means nothing else than that that is *my opinion*. What, do I have to add IMHO after every sentence now? What's next? Gender stuff?