Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Nagoya 2014

[Asashosakari]

Day 10 (results, text-only results):

The basho is entering the home stretch, so it's time to start up the banzuke elevator again.

Goeido is having one of his "on" basho and is already kachikoshi. As there's been no official talk about any ozeki promotion I'm making the bold assumption that he'll remain sekiwake even if he finishes 13-2. The second sekiwake slot is up for grabs due to Tochiozan's injury withdrawal, and it looks quite likely that it'll be claimed by a debutant - of the many rikishi currently still contending for it, only Aminishiki and Myogiryu have been there before. (Then again, if the last banzuke-making session is any indication, maybe they'll put Goeido on both sides...)

Anyway, the numerically best candidate is Takekaze right now, but he's facing Kakuryu tomorrow and might get Kisenosato the next day, while Aoiyama and Yoshikaze are already done with the top-rankers and the guys at M5w and below won't be facing them at all, so it's a bit more complicated than it looks.

Things will get even more interesting if the two komusubi incumbents fail at their uphill battle towards kachikoshi, of course.

(o) 8-2 Goeido S Tochiozan 2-6-2 (x)

3-7 Aminishiki K Aoiyama 4-6

(x) 2-8 Ikioi M1 Shohozan 2-8 (x)

M2 Yoshikaze 5-5

(x) 2-8 Kaisei M3 Osunaarashi 4-6

M4 Takekaze 7-3

4-6 Chiyootori M5 Endo 5-5

6-4 Terunofuji M6 Myogiryu 7-3

M7 Jokoryu 7-3

7-3 Chiyotairyu M8

....

M11 Takayasu 9-1

The demotion race is focussed on the bottom four ranks which house all four rikishi that are in the most grave danger of dropping. Veteran Wakanosato "leads" the way here, needing to win 4 of the 5 remaining bouts, but the Mongolian trio of Kagamio, Tokitenku and Arawashi aren't far ahead of him. (Incidentally - 7 Mongolian-born rikishi among the bottom 11 maegashira!)

Kyokushuho, Okinoumi (hands up, who expected that?!), Azumaryu and Gagamaru complete the list of rikishi who can't afford to coast through the final five days.

While we're still looking for the first makuuchi slot to open up, one juryo contender has already staked his claim - it's rookie phenom Ichinojo whose 9th win today has given him the numbers, and it's only a matter of days until it'll be official as well. Takanoiwa is in very good shape for a top division return, and Sadanofuji looks likely to make it as well. After that trio things get a lot more murky, and I wouldn't be particularly surprised to see Tochinoshin grab a promotion slot if they need to fill more than three. Even 13-2 might well be enough, as there's really little point in putting him at J1 or J2 (and leaving somebody demotable in makuuchi), given how dominant he has been since returning to action.

(o) 3-7 Tochinowaka M7

M8

(o) 4-6 Takarafuji M9

(1) 3-7 Tokushoryu M10

(o) 5-5 Sadanoumi M11

(1) 4-6 Kyokutenho M12 Kyokushuho 4-6 (2)

(2) 4-6 Okinoumi M13

(3) 3-7 Kagamio M14 Azumaryu 5-5 (2)

(2) 5-5 Gagamaru M15 Tokitenku 4-6 (3)

(4) 3-7 Wakanosato M16 Chiyomaru 7-3 (1)

(3) 5-5 Arawashi M17 ---

(4) 4-6 Sotairyu J1 Sadanofuji 6-4 (2)

J2

(1) 8-2 Takanoiwa J3 Ichinojo 9-1 (o)

J4 Homarefuji 6-4 (4)

(x) 4-6 Seiro J5 Kotoyuki 7-3 (3)

(5) 6-4 Amuru J6 Asasekiryu 5-5 (x)

J7

J8 Tosayutaka 7-3 (5)

(x) 6-4 Satoyama J9

J10

J11

(5) 9-1 Tochinoshin J12

There's no shortage of juryo rikishi who are on course for a demotion, Kizenryu leading the way with his Day 9 makekoshi that already clinched him a trip back to makushita. His fellow promotees Daieisho, Wakanoshima, Kyokutaisei and Tochihiryu remain in varying states of danger for now, and former maegashira Daido and Tenkaiho at J10 also have quite some work to do.

Normally I'd say we're headed for at least four demotions here, but the top makushita ranks aren't exactly star-studded this basho, so it wouldn't be a big shock to see the juryo guys take advantage of the upcoming crossover bouts.

Meanwhile down in makushita the first ticket to juryo has already been claimed by Sakigake who was kachikoshi as early as Day 7. For good measure he also eliminated the last remaining zensho contender in the extended promotion zone today (Iwasaki), so he's the favourite for the makushita yusho now. (And by getting promoted again he'll join the short list of rikishi who got promoted to juryo three times in a five-tournament span.)

Sagatsukasa dropped to makekoshi yesterday and definitely won't be going up, but other than that it's still a free-for-all in the top 5 ranks...well, make that top 4 ranks, as the Ms5's are unlikely to make it with 4-3 records. Kawabata and Tatsu could, however, still put themselves into the conversation with a 6-1 finish if many slots open up.

(1) 3-7 Tokushinho J7

(o) 5-5 Asahisho J8

J9 Fujiazuma 4-6 (1)

(3) 3-7 Daido J10 Tenkaiho 3-7 (3)

J11 Chiyonokuni 5-5 (1)

J12 Daieisho 5-5 (2)

(4) 3-7 Wakanoshima J13 Kyokutaisei 4-6 (3)

(x) 2-8 Kizenryu J14 Tochihiryu 5-5 (3)

(o) 5-0 Sakigake Ms1 Horyuyama 2-3

2-3 Higonojo Ms2 Yoshiazuma 3-2

3-2 Wakakoyu Ms3 Sagatsukasa 1-4 (x)

3-2 Kitaharima Ms4 Dewahayate 3-2

2-3 Kotoeko Ms5 Musashiumi 2-3

4-1 Kawabata Ms6

4-1 Tatsu Ms7

Ms8

(x) 4-1 Iwasaki Ms9

Edited July 23, 2014 by Asashosakari

[krindel]

(Then again, if the last banzuke-making session is any indication, maybe they'll put Goeido on both sides...)

(Whatever above, it is funny...)

[lackmaker]

And in the unlikely event of Goeido gaining promotion and none of the others with records worthy of moving up to sekiwake could the rank be left vacant?

[Asashosakari]

The juryo yusho race appears to be headed for an Ichinojo-Tochinoshin showdown, with perhaps Takanoiwa playing the role of spoiler. Clearly they didn't think Tosayutaka was a major contender despite his 6-1 start, or they wouldn't have scheduled him against the other three in succession on the most recent three days already.

The lower-division races are of course the usual shootout towards 7-0, and after five rounds these rikishi remain standing (Day 9/10 results and links to video where available):

Ms1e Sakigake (Shibatayama)

Ms21e Masunoumi (Chiganoura)

Ms39e Kotodaigo (Sadogatake)

Ms50e Rikishin (Tatsunami)

---

Sd21e Abiko (Oitekaze)

Sd36e Mitotsukasa (Irumagawa)

Sd42e Hienriki (Oguruma)

Sd73w Tokinowaka (Minato)

Sd78w Takagenji (Takanohana)

---

Jd10e Shodai (Tokitsukaze)

Jd27w Shiba (Kise)

Jd35e Tochiimari (Kasugano)

Jd53w Takagi (Kise)

Jd73w Shonannoumi (Takadagawa)

Jd82w Imafuku (Matsugane)

Jd99w Kotokudo (Sadogatake)

---

Jk18e Hamaguchi (Kise)

Rikishin has to rate as a massive surprise in the makushita group, being a division debutant. He's the first debutant to start 5-0 since Mitoyutaka in Kyushu 2012, and the youngest one to do it since Wakanoho back in 2006. The odds-on favourite here is Sakigake, of course, as he has already proved he's at least of borderline juryo strength, much higher than any of the other three contenders.

Abiko didn't break much of a sweat in his first four bouts before surviving a scare in the fifth, and he's probably going to score his third straight zensho, but I'm not convinced yet that he's really "21-0 great". His preferred style with a quick tachiai rush looks supremely suited to sandanme and below where nearly all opponents lack either the size or the technical wherewithal to deal with it, but I suspect he'll have to work quite a bit harder in upper makushita. In any case, the sandanme yusho is definitely his to lose, as the contending quartet consists of three veterans who've never gone much of anywhere and a 17-year-old rookie (Takagenji).

Much the same applies to jonidan and Shodai, except it doesn't even take a particularly close look to understand it here. He's a former top 3 collegiate rikishi, it's jonidan, 'nuff said. There is a nominal contender with fellow university deshi Shiba, though after facing him twice already in their short pro careers I expect Shodai's superior pedigree to shine through if/when they eventually meet this basho. There's a third university guy from the Haru class in there with Takagi, but IMHO he's far too technically limited to trouble Shodai, and he can't face Shiba in regulation as they're both in Kise-beya. The rest of the seven-strong field of zensho rikishi is just your usual jonidan crowd, and while at least one of them will be 6-0 (as Imafaku and Kotokudo are matched up tomorrow), I'd be stunned if any of them ended up with 7 wins.

And last not least down in jonokuchi, it's the Hamaguchi show. The former almost-juryo doesn't look terribly vigorous in his return from injury, but it's been plenty enough for the bottom division, with his biggest challenge having been heavy high-schooler shindeshi Ishii on Day 7. There's really nobody in jonokuchi or lower jonidan who is anywhere near Hamaguchi's level, so it would take the fluke of the year to keep him from finishing zensho.

Edited July 24, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Naganoyama]

(Then again, if the last banzuke-making session is any indication, maybe they'll put Goeido on both sides...)

...and then they can give him two bouts per day and he should be able to get enough wins for an ozeki promotion.

[Morty]

Excellent work! This is one of my favourite parts of the basho and I look forward to getting to day ten and the promotion / demotion discussion. Thanks for all the hard work:)

[torquato]

Excellent work! This is one of my favourite parts of the basho and I look forward to getting to day ten and the promotion / demotion discussion. Thanks for all the hard work:)

Dito. Nothing to add.

[Gurowake]

Right now my pick for Sekiwake is Aoiyama. I don't think 4 wins in the last 5 days is much of a stretch as the highest rank he can still fight is M3. Unless someone else has a monster record he'll be the first in line and I don't see anyone reasonably capable of such a record other than Takekaze, who as mentioned has a tough schedule. Yoshikaze and Myogiryu might be theoretically able to get records good enough for Sekiwake, but even if they win out they need Aoiyama to only manage 8-7 and then still I think it's up in the air as to who gets it.

I wouldn't discount a Goeido promotion if he manages to win the yusho. Even with 13 wins and just a jun-yusho (he'll presumably face Takayasu on one of the last couple days if the M11 is still at one loss) it could happen. I don't think that the required events have a significant chance of happening though, and that's why no one's really talked about it.

[Gurowake]

Day 11, all the top candidates for Sekiwake (Aoiyama, Takekaze, Yoshikaze, Myogiryu, Takayasu) lost, and so it's entirely wide open. I count 10 rikishi still with a theoretical chance at taking a sanyaku slot by the numbers (in comparison, I count 6 after Day 11 last basho), although some of them would need a lot of help to be the one with the best shot at Sekiwake. I still think the most likely outcome is that Aoiyama climbs his way back to 8 wins, but that's only because there are so many other possibilities and none of them look particularly good. Takekaze still has the best numbers but will face the toughest schedule, with Kisenosato for day 12 as expected. Whoever looks to have the best shot will likely face Goeido and Kotoshogiku the last couple days as those latter two will be done with their top-ranked matches after today except for their match against each other, and the choice will default to Takekaze for both of them, along with Osunaarashi for Kotoshogiku; Goeido also hasn't fought Tamawashi who is theoretically ranked in the top 16, but it seems unlikely that he would given the plethora of actual candidates for sanyaku.

[Asashosakari]

And in the unlikely event of Goeido gaining promotion and none of the others with records worthy of moving up to sekiwake could the rank be left vacant?

Nope - two ozeki, two sekiwake and two komusubi are a must.

Day 11 (results, text-only results):

Goeido marches on, but both komusubi fell to their opponents today, which means Aminishiki has - probably - vacated the second sanyaku slot now. With the *kaze duo losing, the two best-placed maegashira have suffered a setback, making the race even more open than it already was. In a noteworthy bout Terunofuji beat his fellow M6 contender Myogiryu, levelling their scorelines at 7-4. Jokoryu and Chiyotairyu achieved their KKs, but will have to keep winning to stay in contention.

I won't declare Aminishiki definitely demoted just yet, so he gets question-marked for now.

(o) 9-2 Goeido S Tochiozan 2-6-3 (x)

(?) 3-8 Aminishiki K Aoiyama 4-7

M1

M2 Yoshikaze 5-6

M3 Osunaarashi 5-6

M4 Takekaze 7-4

5-6 Chiyootori M5 Endo 6-5

7-4 Terunofuji M6 Myogiryu 7-4

M7 Jokoryu 8-3

8-3 Chiyotairyu M8

...

M11 Takayasu 9-2

Osunaarashi, who beat Aoiyama today, will face the other komusubi tomorrow in his quest for kachikoshi, a big sansho payout and possibly even a sanyaku debut. In other intra-contender action we will be seeing Chiyootori-Myogiryu, Takayasu-Endo and Terunofuji-Yoshikaze. Takekaze has to contend against Kisenosato as expected.

Veteran Kyokutenho most likely secured his makuuchi presence for his upcoming 40th birthday today. The day also brought good news for Tokitenku, Azumaryu, Arawashi and Wakanosato, although the latter still faces quite a battle. He's joined in red-alert territory by Kagamio who fell to makekoshi with his 5th straight loss.

With still no official demotee to be seen, we nevertheless have our second claim from juryo already as Takanoiwa improved to 9-2. Mid-ranked candidates Homarefuji and Kotoyuki were thrown to the yusho-leading duo, with Homarefuji producing a quick oshidashi win against Tochinoshin, while Kotoyuki was unable to budge big Ichinojo.

Tosayutaka was successful against west juryo lead Sadanofuji, keeping his small promotion hopes alive. The east-side J1 Sotairyu continues to surge and is now 5-6 with three straight wins.

(1) 3-8 Tokushoryu M10

M11

(o) 5-6 Kyokutenho M12 Kyokushuho 4-7 (2)

(2) 4-7 Okinoumi M13

(3) 3-8 Kagamio M14 Azumaryu 6-5 (1)

(2) 5-6 Gagamaru M15 Tokitenku 5-6 (2)

(3) 4-7 Wakanosato M16 Chiyomaru 7-4 (1)

(2) 6-5 Arawashi M17 ---

(3) 5-6 Sotairyu J1 Sadanofuji 6-5 (2)

J2

(o) 9-2 Takanoiwa J3 Ichinojo 10-1 (o)

J4 Homarefuji 7-4 (3)

J5 Kotoyuki 7-4 (3)

(x) 6-5 Amuru J6

J7

J8 Tosayutaka 8-3 (4)

...

(?) 9-2 Tochinoshin J12

Homarefuji and Kotoyuki will have an early promotion playoff of sorts; the loser will find it very difficult to get promoted, needing 3 more wins from 3 days and probably some things to break right in other people's bouts. The freshly-minted yusho pursuer duo of Takanoiwa and Tochinoshin will also face off, while leading Ichinojo will go against Akiseyama (who may come to regret starting this basho 6-2 as he's being thrown against all the top performers since Day 8.)

On the makuuchi side the most notable bout might be Tokushoryu-Azumaryu, the winner of which should be guaranteed a top division ranking for September. Incidentally, with the highly unclear demotion situation I imagine we'll be seeing some cross-divisional matchups starting from Day 13.

In the lower juryo ranks rookie Daieisho took a big step towards safety, while Tokushinho, Fujiazuma and Chiyonokuni are already there now thanks to Day 11 victories. Wakanoshima also won but, like the Waka one division higher, he still needs to win a lot more. Tenkaiho and Daido both lost and should have a lot of worries now.

The top makushita ranks see their next two kachikoshi as Yoshiazuma won the matchup of freshly-demoted veterans with Wakakoyu and Kitaharima prevailed in a very lively bout against young phenom Onosho. Wakakoyu is joined at 3-3 by Higonojo and Kotoeko with wins and Dewahayate with a loss, while Horyuyama had to say goodbye to his promotion hopes.

(o) 4-7 Tokushinho J7

J8

J9 Fujiazuma 5-6 (o)

(3) 3-8 Daido J10 Tenkaiho 3-8 (3)

J11 Chiyonokuni 6-5 (o)

J12 Daieisho 6-5 (1)

(3) 4-7 Wakanoshima J13 Kyokutaisei 5-6 (2)

(x) 3-8 Kizenryu J14 Tochihiryu 6-5 (2)

(o) 5-1 Sakigake Ms1 Horyuyama 2-4 (x)

3-3 Higonojo Ms2 Yoshiazuma 4-2

3-3 Wakakoyu Ms3

4-2 Kitaharima Ms4 Dewahayate 3-3

3-3 Kotoeko Ms5 Musashiumi 2-3

4-1 Kawabata Ms6

4-1 Tatsu Ms7

The 6 juryo rikishi fighting against demotion will not face each other tomorrow, so there's lots of room for collective improvement (or collective implosion, of course). With most makushita top-rankers already done for round 6, the highlight bout in the third division will be Kawabata-Tatsu as they attempt to stay on the outskirts of the promotion race.

[Asashosakari]

(Day 11 results and links to video where available)

The lower-division yusho races played out a lot differently than I expected yesterday, with the biggest upset being Shodai's loss to young Takagenji, after what looked like a similar tachiai -> no decent mawashi hold brainfart as in his maezumo loss to Shiba, from which Takagenji (cleverly, I must admit) just didn't allow him to recover. With Shodai out of the way the most likely jonidan outcome should be a do-beya playoff between Shiba and Takagi now.

Another upset of sorts took place in makushita where eternal talent Masunoumi overwhelmed Sakigake in decisive fashion. The other zensho matchup was won by Rikishin, also in dominant style, and while Masunoumi has to be the favourite for the yusho decider, I wouldn't put it past rookie Rikishin to win that one, too.

Elsewhere on the torikumi it was the expected easy victory for Hamaguchi, while Abiko made hard work of it again but did move on to 6-0.

Ms1e Sakigake (Shibatayama) 5-1

Ms21e Masunoumi (Chiganoura) 6-0

Ms39e Kotodaigo (Sadogatake) 5-1

Ms50e Rikishin (Tatsunami) 6-0

---

Sd21e Abiko (Oitekaze) 6-0

Sd36e Mitotsukasa (Irumagawa) 5-1

Sd42e Hienriki (Oguruma) 5-0

Sd73w Tokinowaka (Minato) 5-0

Sd78w Takagenji (Takanohana) 6-0

---

Jd10e Shodai (Tokitsukaze) 5-1

Jd27w Shiba (Kise) 6-0

Jd35e Tochiimari (Kasugano) 5-1

Jd53w Takagi (Kise) 5-0

Jd73w Shonannoumi (Takadagawa) 5-0

Jd82w Imafuku (Matsugane) 5-1

Jd99w Kotokudo (Sadogatake) 6-0

---

Jk18e Hamaguchi (Kise) 6-0

Edited July 24, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake]

And in the unlikely event of Goeido gaining promotion and none of the others with records worthy of moving up to sekiwake could the rank be left vacant?

Nope - two ozeki, two sekiwake and two komusubi are a must.

So what happens if there aren't enough Ozeki/Yokozuna? Do they promote the most promising Sekiwake and give him the full benefit of the demotion protection? I know there's no historical precedent and there's only been one basho with only 2 Ozeki/Yokozuna in the modern era, and it certainly would be very difficult for no one to qualify for Ozeki if there aren't very many of them, but it's theoretically possible. You could look at it somewhat like the requirement that there has to be at least 2 of each junior sanyaku, in that they sometimes have to really stretch to find rikishi to fill those slots, but those ranks have very minimal demotion protection (no more than any other rank). If there's a constant free-for-all for the Yusho between a dozen evenly matched guys none of which can manage to put together qualifying Ozeki runs and are at risk of MK, should you just freely give the demotion protection to the guys who appear to be top 2 for the last couple basho? Of course, given that they seem to put basically no weight on extra banzuke movement due to luck factors when considering movement for the next basho's banzuke, they might just see it as one of those things that happens and if you're one of the top 2 in the sport, you get the full protection whether you really earned that promotion or not.

Edited July 23, 2014 by Gurowake

[Benevolance]

I think before it ever reached the point where they are at risk of having only 1 ozeki/yokozuna, the field would be so bare that it would be all but impossible for a modestly talented rikishi to put together the necessary wins and secure a legitimate promotion. In fact, that might just be how my man Ikioi makes it to Ozeki...

Edited July 23, 2014 by Benevolance

[Asojima]

The kyokai would probably live for a while with one or two permanently kyujo yokozunas if push came to shove. There is only a banzuke need, not a competitive need.

[Gurowake]

I thought the requirement also was partly reflected by the sanyaku soroibumi. I suppose that there's no real pressing need for the 6 rikishi in that to be actual sanyaku though; I wouldn't be surprised if some maegashira have slipped into the last 3 matches on at least one occasion.

[shimodahito]

sad to see sakigake lose as it ensures the TORCH will stay in makushita for aki....

[Jakusotsu]

I thought the requirement also was partly reflected by the sanyaku soroibumi. I suppose that there's no real pressing need for the 6 rikishi in that to be actual sanyaku though; I wouldn't be surprised if some maegashira have slipped into the last 3 matches on at least one occasion.

Last instance:

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Results.aspx?b=201109&d=15

(and the basho before)

[Asashosakari]

I thought the requirement also was partly reflected by the sanyaku soroibumi. I suppose that there's no real pressing need for the 6 rikishi in that to be actual sanyaku though; I wouldn't be surprised if some maegashira have slipped into the last 3 matches on at least one occasion.

Last instance:

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Results.aspx?b=201109&d=15

(and the basho before)

If I'm not mistaken, Tamawashi also appeared in the soroibumi in January.

Edit: Also Aki 2012.

Edited July 24, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Jakusotsu]

If I'm not mistaken, Tamawashi also appeared in the soroibumi in January.

Good catch! I had the feeling it hasn't been that long...

[Asashosakari]

(Day 12 results and links to video where available)

Hienriki and Takagi complete the 6-0 lineup for this basho.

Ms21e Masunoumi (Chiganoura) 6-0

Ms50e Rikishin (Tatsunami) 6-0

---

Sd21e Abiko (Oitekaze) 6-0

Sd42e Hienriki (Oguruma) 6-0

Sd73w Tokinowaka (Minato) 5-1

Sd78w Takagenji (Takanohana) 6-0

---

Jd27w Shiba (Kise) 6-0

Jd53w Takagi (Kise) 6-0

Jd73w Shonannoumi (Takadagawa) 5-1

Jd99w Kotokudo (Sadogatake) 6-0

---

Jk18e Hamaguchi (Kise) 6-0

The Day 13 schedule isn't out yet, though I suspect they'll resolve the odd number of contenders in both sandanme and jonidan by pairing up Takagenji with Shiba.

[krindel]

After today's win, and with three sanyaku slots definitely available I can't see how Takekaze can fail to grab at least one of them...

But tomorrow's bouts will prove decisive, very interested in seeing Endo - Yoshikaze in particular...

[Asashosakari]

In fact, that might just be how my man Ikioi makes it to Ozeki...

Does Kintamayama know about this illicit affair of yours? ;-)

Day 12 (results, text-only results):

Goeido had another strong bout against a yokozuna but Harumafuji eventually prevailed, probably quelling any ozeki promotion talk for this basho. The komusubi duo also lost which means it's definitely curtains for Aminishiki, and Aoiyama is probably dropping down as well.

Takekaze reached the kachikoshi zone with a clever quick win against ozeki Kisenosato, while his stablemate Yoshikaze is slowly fading from the sanyaku race. I do think Takekaze still needs one more win to be safe as Terunofuji, Myogiryu and Jokoryu all won today and continue to push hard from lower ranks, not to mention that Osunaarashi has KK in sight again as well after beating Aminishiki.

(o) 9-3 Goeido S Tochiozan 2-6-4 (x)

(x) 3-9 Aminishiki K Aoiyama 4-8 (?)

M1

M2 Yoshikaze 5-7

M3 Osunaarashi 6-6

M4 Takekaze 8-4

(x) 5-7 Chiyootori M5 Endo 6-6

8-4 Terunofuji M6 Myogiryu 8-4

M7 Jokoryu 9-3

8-4 Chiyotairyu M8

...

M11 Takayasu 10-2

It's unlikely to be an easy ride for Takekaze in any case with him facing Goeido tomorrow and he might well get Jokoryu and Takayasu for his final two bouts. They can't really play off the lower-ranked contenders against each other to the end as most bouts within the Teru/Myo/Joko/Tairyu/Yasu group have already taken place; Myogiryu-Jokoryu and Terunofuji-Takayasu are on tomorrow's schedule and that leaves only Terunofuji-Jokoryu as yet to happen.

Endo-Yoshikaze is also scheduled for tomorrow, with the loser departing the race for good. And last not least Osunaarashi will have to complete his sanyaku matchups against ozeki Kotoshogiku. Chiyotairyu is the only one not facing a fellow contender or a top-ranker, going against Azumaryu.

Speaking of Azumaryu, he ensured his makuuchi survival by beating Tokushoryu in the day's featured lower makuuchi bout. That leaves Tokushoryu still one win short, and the same goes for Chiyomaru who failed to get across the line for the third day in a row, as well as Arawashi and Okinoumi who won today. Kagamio was successful in the other head-to-head matchup against Kyokushuho, leaving both on two wins to go. Gagamaru and Tokitenku also still need two more victories after losing today, while Wakanosato is now close to becoming the first demotee.

Over in juryo the two main yusho contenders marched on, Tochinoshin doing so at the expense of Takanoiwa. Sotairyu lost a good 'un against Amuru and will find it difficult to get promoted, but Sadanofuji beat Asahisho in his trademark style and has a good shot at returning to makuuchi now. Homarefuji beat Kotoyuki in a matchup of outside contenders to maintain his chances and Tosayutaka was victorious as well.

(1) 3-9 Tokushoryu M10

M11

M12 Kyokushuho 4-8 (2)

(1) 5-7 Okinoumi M13

(2) 4-8 Kagamio M14 Azumaryu 7-5 (o)

(2) 5-7 Gagamaru M15 Tokitenku 5-7 (2)

(3) 4-8 Wakanosato M16 Chiyomaru 7-5 (1)

(1) 7-5 Arawashi M17 ---

(3) 5-7 Sotairyu J1 Sadanofuji 7-5 (1)

J2

(o) 9-3 Takanoiwa J3 Ichinojo 11-1 (o)

J4 Homarefuji 8-4 (2)

J5 Kotoyuki 7-5 (3)

J6

J7

J8 Tosayutaka 9-3 (3)

...

(?) 10-2 Tochinoshin J12

As expected they're starting up the crossover matches tomorrow and it's a tough assignment for Tokitenku and Wakanosato who will face Takanoiwa and Ichinojo. Okinoumi-Kagamio and Tokushoryu-Kyokushuho have also been set for Day 13 in makuuchi, while juryo sees a meeting of Homarefuji and Tosayutaka.

The six rikishi trying to avoid the demotion to makushita went 4-2 today, with Wakanoshima and Tochihiryu the only losers. Shin-sekitori Daieisho is now safe and even has a good shot at finishing kachikoshi. Down in makushita Musashiumi completed the big group of 3-3's in the promotion zone and Tatsu improved to 5-1 against Kawabata.

(2) 4-8 Daido J10 Tenkaiho 4-8 (2)

J11

J12 Daieisho 7-5 (o)

(3) 4-8 Wakanoshima J13 Kyokutaisei 6-6 (1)

(x) 3-9 Kizenryu J14 Tochihiryu 6-6 (2)

(o) 5-1 Sakigake Ms1

3-3 Higonojo Ms2 Yoshiazuma 4-2

3-3 Wakakoyu Ms3

4-2 Kitaharima Ms4 Dewahayate 3-3

3-3 Kotoeko Ms5 Musashiumi 3-3

(x) 4-2 Kawabata Ms6

5-1 Tatsu Ms7

And today's losing duo has been drawn right into crossover duty: Wakanoshima-Yoshiazuma could result in a straight-up exchange if Yoshiazuma wins, while Tochihiryu-Kitaharima won't quite effect a final outcome on its own. The other three juryo rikishi have all received pretty tough opponents in Daido-Kotoyuki (7-5), Tenkaiho-Amuru (also 7-5) and Kyokutaisei-Tochinoshin.

Kotoeko already has his 7th bout in makushita tomorrow, but the other four 3-3's appear to be kept in reserve for juryo service on Days 14 and 15. However, in case they're not needed for that, two or all four of them could also be paired up into some combination of Higonojo-Wakakoyu, Higonojo-Dewahayate, Wakakoyu-Musashiumi and Dewahayate-Musashiumi for direct KK/MK deciders. I suspect they'll send Higonojo and Wakakoyu into juryo on Day 14, and the Day 15 assignments for Dewahayate and Musashiumi will depend on how the demotions have shaken out by then.

[Asashosakari]

It's unlikely to be an easy ride for Takekaze in any case with him facing Goeido tomorrow and he might well get Jokoryu and Takayasu for his final two bouts.

Oops, I overlooked that Takekaze even still needs to face Kotoshogiku, so that should be his Day 14 bout. Even tougher then...

[Kintamayama]

The Day 13 schedule isn't out yet, though I suspect they'll resolve the odd number of contenders in both sandanme and jonidan by pairing up Takagenji with Shiba.

Abiko-Hienriki

Shiba-Takagenji

Kotokudo-Takagi

Hamaguchi-Fujiarashi (Jonidan, 5-1)

And Ryuuden is back for the day facing 0-6 Hakubizan.

Edited July 24, 2014 by Kintamayama

[Jakusotsu]

Oops, I overlooked that Takekaze even still needs to face Kotoshogiku, so that should be his Day 14 bout. Even tougher then...

My money is on Takayasu for Kotoshogiku on day 14.