Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2014

[Asashosakari]

The lack of convenient video this basho has really dampened my interest in writing (or even thinking) about the basho and two days ago I wasn't even going to start up this thread, but what the heck...

Kotoshogiku looks to be in a decent position to maintain his rank now - as long as he beats one of his two remaining maegashira opponents for win #7 he'll probably manage to find the last needed win against the other three high-rankers somehow. Kotooshu on the other hand has probably blown it today - yesterday's opponent Okinoumi and today's Shohozan both sport strong head-to-head records against Osh and he arguably needed to beat both to have a shot. 4-1 with bouts against Hakuho, Kakuryu and Kisenosato still on the schedule is a big ask.

All in all it looks like there will be just one available sanyaku slot as Goeido should be capable of finishing at least 7-8. The list of candidates for that one slot was cut nearly in half today (see table).

6-4 Kotoshogiku O2

5-5 Goeido S Kotooshu 6-4

(x) 0-4-6 Myogiryu K Tochiozan 7-3

5-5 Toyonoshima M1 Okinoumi 4-6

M2 Ikioi 3-7 (x)

(x) 3-7 Aoiyama M3 Toyohibiki 3-7 (x)

M4 Takekaze 5-5

8-2 Shohozan M5 Kyokutenho 4-6 (x)

6-4 Tamawashi M6

M7

M8 Tochinowaka 6-4 (x)

M9

M10 Endo 8-2

Kyokushuho is in big trouble now after losing six straight, and looks likely to follow injured Kotoyuki back down to juryo. Everybody else still has a decent chance to save themselves, with Shotenro in the worst position (and not looking good in his bouts either).

No juryo rikishi have put up the numbers for their promotion yet, but Terunofuji's makuuchi debut and Azumaryu's return appear to be set. Remains to be seen if anybody else can string together a few wins and break out of the pack of contenders.

(o) 3-7 Takarafuji M7

M8

M9 Fujiazuma 2-8 (2)

M10

(3) 2-8 Shotenro M11

M12 Chiyootori 6-4 (o)

(4) 2-8 Kyokushuho M13 Tokitenku 4-6 (2)

(2) 4-6 Kagamio M14 Masunoyama 6-4 (1)

(o) 7-3 Tokushoryu M15 Takanoiwa 5-5 (2)

M16 Satoyama 6-4 (2)

(x) kyujo Kotoyuki M17

(4) 4-6 Asahisho J1 Terunofuji 7-3 (1)

(4) 5-5 Tenkaiho J2

(3) 6-4 Jokoryu J3 Azumaryu 8-2 (1)

J4

(5) 5-5 Chiyonokuni J5 Tamaasuka 7-3 (3)

(2) 9-1 Chiyomaru J6

(5) 6-4 Asasekiryu J7

...

J13 Sadanoumi 9-1 (5)

Takanoyama is almost on the way back to makushita already, and Kimurayama isn't far behind. The low-ranked trio of Sakigake, Higonojo and Seiro will also need to post some more victories to remain in the paid ranks.

And your guess is as good as mine when it comes to the likely promotions from makushita. It's one of those weird tournaments where the highest-ranked rikishi have the worst records, and the further down you go the better the records. There's no shortage of candidates, in any case, with 29-year-old Yamatofuji of course the big wildcard here.

(1) 2-8 Homarefuji J4

...

(o) 5-5 Sotairyu J8 Wakakoyu 4-6 (1)

J9 Akiseyama 3-7 (2)

(1) 5-5 Yoshiazuma J10 Arawashi 6-4 (o)

(1) 5-5 Sokokurai J11 Kimurayama 2-8 (4)

(1) 6-4 Tochihiryu J12 Takanoyama 2-8 (5)

(3) 4-6 Sakigake J13

(3) 5-5 Higonojo J14 Seiro 5-5 (3)

2-3 Tanzo Ms1 Oiwato 1-4 (x)

3-2 Sagatsukasa Ms2 Kihonoumi 2-3

2-3 Kansei Ms3 Kotomisen 3-2

4-1 Amuru Ms4 Kitaharima 4-1

(x) 1-4 Fukugoriki Ms5 Tosayutaka 4-1

Ms6

5-0 Yamatofuji Ms7

[krindel]

Thanks for do starting your thread, it would be a big loss if it wasn't here.

I guess that even if Kotooshu is planning an intai, there's no way that he'll do the favor to free up the Sekiwake slot by doing it in time for banzuke making... Noone says no to free money :-).

[Asashosakari]

Yusho/zensho races in the lower divisions:

Ms7e Yamatofuji (Onomatsu)

Ms21e Higoarashi (Kise)

Ms41e Komanokuni (Shibatayama)

-----

Sd13w Kotodaigo (Sadogatake)

Sd23w Horikiri (Shikoroyama)

Sd38e Mitotsukasa (Irumagawa)

Sd58e Kisenowaka (Kise)

Sd74w Asanotosa (Takasago)

Sd77w Ugonoumi (Minezaki)

-----

Jd4e Asakoki (Takasago)

Jd10w Kotoninsei (Sadogatake)

Jd31w Mitani (Kasugano)

Jd48w Fujiwara (Michinoku)

Jd75w Asanoshima (Takasago)

Jd82w Daishoki (Oitekaze)

-----

Jk17w Yonamine (Otake)

Too bad Amuru lost to Higoarashi yesterday, which robbed us of a chance to see two 7-0's in the automatic promotion ranks. And Yamatofuji's run doesn't even come out of nowhere, despite his relatively advanced age - in his last 9 tournaments he has posted 7 kachikoshi and two 3-4's. Will be interesting to see which way they go with the torikumi if he beats Higoarashi tomorrow.

All the rikishi are paired across the divisional boundaries for their 6th bouts, so sandanme and jonidan could each have 2, 3 or even 4 unbeaten rikishi after this round. Kotoninsei is probably the top contender in jonidan, while Kotodaigo (already with a sandanme yusho two years ago) should be the nominal favourite in the fourth division, but of course his matchup with makushita Komanokuni could put an end to that tomorrow.

Edited January 21, 2014 by Asashosakari

[ScreechingOwl]

Kotooshu has already faced Kakuryu this basho, but otherwise your analysis seems spot on. If he loses to Hakuho tonight (and it's hard to see Hakuho doing him a favor, especially since Kakuryu declined to) he has to go 4-0 over the final days to be repromoted, and that seems highly unlikely.

[Morty]

I'm really glad you're doing this again. I look forward to reading this analysis every basho and was really pleased when it appeared in the list of threads this morning. Keep it up:).

[Gusoyama]

The big question is will Kotooshu retire? He seems fed up with the sport, and his fighting spirit has not seemed to be there for some time. However, I also see him not giving a crap about tradition, and not retiring after he loses his rank. Its a toss up for me, but I think I fall on the side of not retiring.

[Asashosakari]

I guess that even if Kotooshu is planning an intai, there's no way that he'll do the favor to free up the Sekiwake slot by doing it in time for banzuke making... Noone says no to free money :-).

The big question is will Kotooshu retire? He seems fed up with the sport, and his fighting spirit has not seemed to be there for some time. However, I also see him not giving a crap about tradition, and not retiring after he loses his rank. Its a toss up for me, but I think I fall on the side of not retiring.

Good points, both. Osh isn't as washed up as Chiyotaikai was in his sekiwake basho and I'd hate to see him quit while he's stilll good enough for the upper ranks, but it's hard to know much fire there still is in Osh's belly.

Kotooshu has already faced Kakuryu this basho ...

You're absolutely right, of course. I think my mind jumped too quickly from Giku to Osh there.

It's looking good for Kotoshogiku's survival as ozeki now after beating Shohozan. However, they're not making it that easy for him with Endo as tomorrow's opponent, yusho-chasing Hakuho and Kakuryu, and Kisenosato who might still want revenge for some crucial senshuraku losses last year. He'll probably best hope that Kakuryu is out of the race when they meet on Day 15...

One high-ranked opponent remains for Goeido and Kotooshu, followed by two maegashira and then their senshuraku bout against each other. Might be difficult for Goeido to avoid losing his sekiwake rank, actually...

Tochiozan will be the likely inheritor of any sekiwake slot that opens up, but we're still looking for somebody to replace Myogiryu. The four highest-ranked candidates lost on Day 11, so Tamawashi and Endo can continue to hope for a lucky promotion.

7-4 Kotoshogiku O2

5-6 Goeido S Kotooshu 6-5

(x) 0-4-7 Myogiryu K Tochiozan 7-4

5-6 Toyonoshima M1 Okinoumi 4-7

M2

M3

M4 Takekaze 5-6 (x)

8-3 Shohozan M5

7-4 Tamawashi M6

M7

M8

M9

M10 Endo 9-2

Kyokushuho lost again and has one foot down in juryo, with Shotenro not far behind. Masunoyama is safe now, on the other hand.

Terunofuji is the first second-division rikishi to secure his move to makuuchi, beating Azumaryu in a direct promotion clash. Jokoryu beat Tamaasuka to become the best candidate behind the two Mongolians for now, while yusho co-leader Chiyomaru lost to bottom-ranked Seiro. Sadanoumi is the new sole leader after knocking Asasekiryu out of the promotion race.

M9 Fujiazuma 3-8 (1)

M10

(3) 2-9 Shotenro M11

M12

(4) 2-9 Kyokushuho M13 Tokitenku 4-7 (2)

(2) 4-7 Kagamio M14 Masunoyama 7-4 (o)

M15 Takanoiwa 6-5 (1)

M16 Satoyama 6-5 (2)

(x) kyujo Kotoyuki M17

(4) 4-7 Asahisho J1 Terunofuji 8-3 (o)

(3) 6-5 Tenkaiho J2

(2) 7-4 Jokoryu J3 Azumaryu 8-3 (1)

J4

(x) 5-6 Chiyonokuni J5 Tamaasuka 7-4 (3)

(2) 9-2 Chiyomaru J6

(x) 6-5 Asasekiryu J7

...

J13 Sadanoumi 10-1 (4)

Five juryo rikishi were one win away from maintaining their ranks yesterday, and four of them are on safe ground now. On the other hand Takanoyama now has enough losses for a ticket back to makushita, and Kimurayama will most likely accompany him. Sakigake and Higonojo didn't help their causes today, either.

2-3 Tanzo and Kihonoumi had already met on Day 3 and received other opponents today - both lost to fall out of the running. Sagatsukasa is the first likely promotee after beating fellow veteran Kotomisen. Amuru was successful in his Ms4 clash with Kitaharima and also looks good for a promotion now as he's guaranteed to be at least #3 in the queue. Former maegashira Tosayutaka also kept his bid alive with a win, but zensho racer Yamatofuji was beaten by Higoarashi.

(o) 3-8 Homarefuji J4

...

J8 Wakakoyu 5-6 (o)

J9 Akiseyama 4-7 (1)

(o) 6-5 Yoshiazuma J10

(o) 6-5 Sokokurai J11 Kimurayama 2-9 (4)

(1) 6-5 Tochihiryu J12 Takanoyama 2-9 (x)

(3) 4-7 Sakigake J13

(3) 5-6 Higonojo J14 Seiro 6-5 (2)

(x) 2-4 Tanzo Ms1

4-2 Sagatsukasa Ms2 Kihonoumi 2-4 (x)

3-3 Kansei Ms3 Kotomisen 3-3

5-1 Amuru Ms4 Kitaharima 4-2

Ms5 Tosayutaka 5-1

Ms6

(x) 5-1 Yamatofuji Ms7

Edited January 22, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari]

Ms7e Yamatofuji (Onomatsu) 5-1

Ms21e Higoarashi (Kise) 6-0

Ms41e Komanokuni (Shibatayama) 5-1

-----

Sd13w Kotodaigo (Sadogatake) 6-0

Sd23w Horikiri (Shikoroyama) 6-0

Sd38e Mitotsukasa (Irumagawa) 5-1

Sd58e Kisenowaka (Kise) 6-0

Sd74w Asanotosa (Takasago) 5-1

Sd77w Ugonoumi (Minezaki) 5-0

-----

Jd4e Asakoki (Takasago) 5-0

Jd10w Kotoninsei (Sadogatake) 5-0

Jd31w Mitani (Kasugano) 5-0

Jd48w Fujiwara (Michinoku) 6-0

Jd75w Asanoshima (Takasago) 5-1

Jd82w Daishoki (Oitekaze) 6-0

-----

Jk17w Yonamine (Otake) 5-1

Whoops! With those two results in the matches involving makushita rikishi, I suppose the most interesting outcome would be a big 6-1 playoff now. The usual final opponent for such an "orphaned" 6-0 outside the promotion zone is a high(ish)-ranked 5-1, which limits the available choices to Tosayutaka and possibly Ichinojo (still needs to get his 5th win tomorrow though).

In jonokuchi the 7-0 yusho has already become impossible, although the 6-1 playoff isn't assured yet - there will be between 3 and 5 rikishi at 5-1 after tomorrow.

Both sandanme and jonidan are now assured 3 zensho rikishi before the last round, with tomorrow's Ugonoumi-Asakoki bout deciding which division will have a 4th. But I suspect the final round's setup is already decided anyway, with the top 6 being paired up (possibly including another Sd-Jd bout) and Daishoki facing one of the jonokuchi 5-1's.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Koorifuu]

And indeed, it's going to be Higoarashi v Tosayutaka. A fully crowded 6-1 playoff will ensue in case of a Tosayutaka win.

Here's the 5-1 makushita ranks so far:

○–○––○–○●–○– Ms4e Amuru
○––○–●○–○–○– Ms5w Tosayutaka
–○–○–○–○○–●– Ms7e Yamatofuji
–○–○○––●–○–○ Ms15TD Ichinojo
–○–○○––●–○–○ Ms26e Kairyu
–○–○○––○●–○– Ms33w Kotokobai
–○–○○–●–○–○– Ms36e Terao
○–○––○○–○–●– Ms41e Komanokuni
○––●○––○–○–○ Ms46w Kotoeko
–●○––○○–○––○ Ms47w Tamadaiki
○––●○–○––○○– Ms53e Hitenryu

Pairings for tomorrow include Amuru v Ichinojo, Yamatofuji v Kairyu, Terao v Kotokobai, Komanokuni v Kotoeko and Hitenryu v Tamadaiki. Essentially, everyone gets paired up and tomorrow we'll know wether Higoarashi really upsets Tosayutaka to take the yusho, or who we'll have on a massive 7-man playoff on senshuraku - those two plus the 5 winners.

[Asashosakari]

Sorry, a bit late...

Kotoshogiku easily blasted out Endo to secure his ozeki rank, while Goeido added to his one-sided career record against Hakuho and now has to worry about dropping from sekiwake. Tochiozan has moved into position to claim the free spot if it materializes.

The race for komusubi continues to be dominated by lower-ranked candidates. Tamawashi beat Toyonoshima and not only improved his own record but also pulled the second M1 to the brink of makekoshi. Endo's loss in his first-ever ozeki bout probably rules him of the sanyaku stakes out now, but then we could still be losing Goeido, Myogiryu and Kotooshu from the current sanyaku in various ways, so perhaps a 12-3 could do it.

(o) 8-4 Kotoshogiku O2
5-7 Goeido S Kotooshu 7-5
(x) 0-4-8 Myogiryu K Tochiozan 8-4

5-7 Toyonoshima M1 Okinoumi 5-7
...
8-4 Shohozan M5
8-4 Tamawashi M6
...
M10 Endo 9-3

It's a big day for the three main contenders tomorrow with Goeido-Tamawashi, Kotooshu-Endo and Tochiozan-Shohozan all on the Day 13 schedule.


Kyokushuho and Shotenro have reached double-digit losses already, sending the younger Mongolian back to juryo and the older one almost so. All in all it wasn't a good day to be Mongolian in low makuuchi as Kagamio, Tokitenku (against now-safe Fujiazuma) and Takanoiwa also left the Kokugikan with an increased L counter. Satoyama joined Fujiazuma on the winning side with his "tottari-ish move vaguely resembling an ipponzeoi" victory over Tochinowaka.

Over in juryo the yusho race has become more suspenseful again thanks to Jokoryu's quick win over Sadanoumi, which leaves the latter tied at 10-2 with successful Chiyomaru (beating Azumaryu who continues to wait for the promotion-clincher). Sadanoumi is probably without a chance for promotion now.

In further news Asahisho was sent packing by Asasekiryu, and Tamaasuka has also become an unlikely promotion candidate following a loss to Higonojo. Tenkaiho kept himself in the race, beating Sotairyu.

M9 Fujiazuma 4-8 (o)
M10
(3) 2-10 Shotenro M11
M12
(x) 2-10 Kyokushuho M13 Tokitenku 4-8 (2)
(2) 4-8 Kagamio M14
M15 Takanoiwa 6-6 (1)
M16 Satoyama 7-5 (1)
(x) kyujo Kotoyuki M17

(x) 4-8 Asahisho J1 Terunofuji 9-3 (o)
(2) 7-5 Tenkaiho J2
(1) 8-4 Jokoryu J3 Azumaryu 8-4 (1)
J4
J5 Tamaasuka 7-5 (3)
(1) 10-2 Chiyomaru J6
...
J13 Sadanoumi 10-2 (x)


The list of rikishi still fighting against demotion has been reduced from 6 to 4 with Tochihiryu clinching the necessary 7th win and Kimurayama falling to 2-10 and sure departure to makushita. (I do wonder if he could be headed to intai altogether.) The three low-ranked candidates Sakigake, Higonojo and Seiro all improved their chances today, while Akiseyama lost to Homarefuji (who's now 4-8 after 0-8). Nothing new on the makushita side as everybody already fought on Day 11.

J9 Akiseyama 4-8 (1)
J10
J11 Kimurayama 2-10 (x)
(o) 7-5 Tochihiryu J12 Takanoyama 3-9 (x)
(2) 5-7 Sakigake J13
(2) 6-6 Higonojo J14 Seiro 7-5 (1)

Ms1
4-2 Sagatsukasa Ms2
3-3 Kansei Ms3 Kotomisen 3-3
5-1 Amuru Ms4 Kitaharima 4-2
Ms5 Tosayutaka 5-1

Amuru and Tosayutaka will be in action tomorrow, against Ichinojo and yusho-leading Higoarashi, and could both make themselves part of a 7-man playoff as detailed by Koorifuu above. Sagatsukasa et al. are being kept back for the final two days as customary. No direct matchups among the four juryo rikishi for now; Akiseyama-Seiro and Sakigake-Higonojo are still possible on that front.

[Asashosakari]

Yusho races...

First off, juryo:

As Chiyomaru and Sadanoumi will still meet the yusho line has been established at 11+ wins, so only those at 8-4 or better can still hope to play a role. That means five rikishi are left in the race:

Teru Joko Azuma Chiyo Sada

J1w Terunofuji (9-3) --- W6 W11 L10

J3e Jokoryu (8-4) L6 --- L3 W12

J3w Azumaryu (8-4) L11 W3 --- L12

J6e Chiyomaru (10-2) W10 W12 ---

J13w Sadanoumi (10-2) L12 ---

Turns out that Day 12 had two direct matchups among these five, with Jokoryu's victory moving him into contention. (Not bad, considering he was only 5-4 at one point.)

Sadanoumi's track for the final three days looks pretty set. He's facing Terunofuji tomorrow and should be getting Azumaryu and Chiyomaru after that. Granted, Azumaryu is likely out of the race at that point, but I don't think there are any better choices. The one change I could see is if Chiyomaru wins tomorrow and Sadanoumi loses (or vice versa), which might mean that their head-to-head gets moved up to Day 14 to avoid it becoming meaningless (somebody could already be two wins ahead after Day 14).

In any case, the Sadanoumi-Terunofuji bout is accompanied by Chiyomaru-Jokoryu, while Azumaryu gets promotion-chasing Tenkaiho.

The few Day 12 changes in the lower divisions:

Ms21e Higoarashi (Kise) 6-0

-----

Sd13w Kotodaigo (Sadogatake) 6-0

Sd23w Horikiri (Shikoroyama) 6-0

Sd58e Kisenowaka (Kise) 6-0

Sd77w Ugonoumi (Minezaki) 5-1

-----

Jd4e Asakoki (Takasago) 6-0

Jd10w Kotoninsei (Sadogatake) 6-0

Jd31w Mitani (Kasugano) 5-1

Jd48w Fujiwara (Michinoku) 6-0

Jd82w Daishoki (Oitekaze) 6-0

Higoarashi faces Tosayutaka as mentioned earlier, and I both expect and hope Tosayutaka will win that one. Can't even begin to guess who would win the playoff though if it happens.

Sandanme is the three-zensho division, and the lowest-ranked of the three, Kisenowaka, will play host for another sandanme match for jonidan Asakoki. I can't imagine it'll make much of a difference to the yusho decision, however - the winner of Horikiri-Kotodaigo should take it, either outright or in a playoff with Kisenowaka two days later. Horikiri-Kotodaigo is too close to call for me, though from what I've seen of Horikiri in the last few tournaments he's a real big-time talent.

The jonidan yusho should be Kotoninsei's to lose, he's simply well ahead of the other three contenders. Whether it's an outright, kettei or tomoe-sen decision will depend on what Asakoki and Daishoki do. Daishoki doesn't get a jonokuchi 5-1 after all, but rather Jd66e Fujiarashi, a 36-year-old veteran who topped out in mid-sandanme and appears to be around upper-jonidan strength now. Daishoki is probably about the same, so at least this matchup isn't a foregone conclusion one way or the other.

And lastly, the 5-1 contenders in jonokuchi:

Jk1w Sadanohana (Sakaigawa)

Jk15w Tokkoriki (Arashio)

Jk17w Yonamine (Otake)

Tokkoriki and Sadanohana face off, while Yonamine gets the lowest-ranked 5-1 from jonidan, Kotokojima. Tokkoriki and Yonamine should be stronger by far than their respective opponents, so I'm expecting a playoff between them. They already met on Day 1, actually, with Yonamine victorious there.

Edited January 24, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari]

And the cliff-notes version: If Tosayutaka, Kisenowaka, Daishoki and Yonamine win, we'll have playoffs in all four lower divisions.

[Benevolance]

A 7-man playoff might actually be worth a 1500Y admission on senshuraku...I can imagine the slogan goes something like this:

THIS SUNDAY, SUNDAY, SUNDAY! SEVEN MEN ENTER! ONLY ONE MAN LEAVES. EVENTUALLY. IT'LL TAKE A WHILE. HATSU BASHO SENSHURAKU! WE'D SELL YOU THE WHOLE TWO WEEKS, BUT YOU CAN ONLY AFFORD ONE DAY!

[kuroimori]

Tosayutaka ,just missed out on setting up the 7-man play-off.

[Asashosakari]

Day 13:

Kotooshu's quest for a return to the ozeki rank was ended at the hands of Endo today, it remains to be seen what Osh will decide about his future now. Goeido's attempt to maintain his sekiwake position got off to a good start with a victory over surprise sanyaku contender Tamawashi today; he'll have to go through Kyokutenho and Kotooshu to achieve kachikoshi. Tochiozan easily beat the third candidate Shohozan and can still hope to reach 11 wins, which would probably result in a promotion to sekiwake even if no slot opens up for him.

Meanwhile, the two M1's went in opposite directions with Toyonoshima beating Takekaze and Okinoumi losing (and going MK) against Aminishiki.

6-7 Goeido S Kotooshu 7-6

(x) 0-4-9 Myogiryu K Tochiozan 9-4

6-7 Toyonoshima M1 Okinoumi 5-8 (x)

...

8-5 Shohozan M5

8-5 Tamawashi M6

...

M10 Endo 10-3

Tamawashi has drawn the toughest opponent (on paper anyway) for tomorrow in Kotooshu. Shohozan and Endo get low-ranked foes with Gagamaru and Satoyama, while Toyonoshima goes against Aoiyama (whom I'll probably have to add back to the table if he wins).

Shotenro has become the third rikishi to "earn" a trip back to juryo with today's loss to Toyohibiki, and Tokitenku is in big danger of following him after being defeated by Yoshikaze. Takanoiwa and Satoyama weren't able to take the final step to safety, but Kagamio managed to improve his position, beating Tokushoryu.

Azumaryu and Chiyomaru were victorious on Day 13 and have now clinched their makuuchi promotion by the numbers, but with currently only 3 open slots they're not assured a favourable enough position in the queue yet. Chiyomaru's win came at the expense of Jokoryu who has fallen out of the yusho race with that. In the other direct matchup of yusho contenders Terunofuji prevailed over Sadanoumi, leaving both at 10-3 and Chiyomaru as the sole 11-2 leader.

Tenkaiho was the losing rikishi in Azumaryu's victory and now probably needs to win both remaining bouts to clinch a makuuchi return. Tamaasuka was successful against Sokokurai to maintain his own slight chances.

(x) 2-11 Shotenro M11

M12

(x) 3-10 Kyokushuho M13 Tokitenku 4-9 (2)

(1) 5-8 Kagamio M14

M15 Takanoiwa 6-7 (1)

M16 Satoyama 7-6 (1)

(x) kyujo Kotoyuki M17

J1 Terunofuji 10-3 (o)

(2) 7-6 Tenkaiho J2

(1) 8-5 Jokoryu J3 Azumaryu 9-4 (?)

J4

J5 Tamaasuka 8-5 (2)

(?) 11-2 Chiyomaru J6

With Chiyomaru and Sadanoumi having opposite results on Day 13 their head-to-head has been scheduled for tomorrow after all. Terunofuji faces Seiro in a rare juryo-hitto vs juryo-jiri matchup, and outside yusho candidate Azumaryu meets Asasekiryu. Depending on tomorrow's results we could have 1, 2 or 3 leaders for senshuraku (and up to 4 yusho contenders altogether), or the yusho could already be decided in Chiyomaru's favour.

In the promotion/demotion races the exchange bouts are starting up with Kagamio-Jokoryu and Tokitenku-Tenkaiho pairings.

Three losses and just one win for the rikishi quartet that's fighting against demotion - Seiro had the sole success of the day to clinch his kachikoshi and secure his continued presence in juryo. Sakigake and Higonojo now have their backs to the wall.

Down in makushita Amuru and Tosayutaka were beaten by lower-ranked opponents. With two open slots in juryo, Tosayutaka's loss has served to ensure Sagatsukasa's and Amuru's return to the paid ranks, so it wasn't all bad news for the Russian today.

J9 Akiseyama 4-9 (1)

J10

J11 Kimurayama 3-10 (x)

J12 Takanoyama 3-10 (x)

(2) 5-8 Sakigake J13

(2) 6-7 Higonojo J14 Seiro 8-5 (o)

Ms1

(o) 4-2 Sagatsukasa Ms2

3-3 Kansei Ms3 Kotomisen 3-3

(o) 5-2 Amuru Ms4 Kitaharima 4-2

Ms5 Tosayutaka 5-2

The exchange bouts are starting in straight-forward fashion here, with the 3-3's Kansei and Kotomisen scheduled against Sakigake and Higonojo.

---

The big makushita playoff unfortunately hasn't materialized as Higoarashi beat Tosayutaka in pretty strong fashion. I must admit I haven't rated Higoarashi all that highly until now as he always looked like his physical tools vastly outstripped his technical skills, but it's hard to argue with a 7-0 that includes wins over such prominent names as Tochinosato, Kairyu, Amuru and Tosayutaka. The sandanme yusho was won by Horikiri who easily disposed of Kotodaigo, with Kisenowaka losing to jonidan Asakoki earlier. (The makushita and sandanme deciders can be seen courtesy of araibira.)

Asakoki will now enter a jonidan yusho playoff against Kotoninsei who beat Fujiwara as expected. The third contender Daishoki was taken out of the race by Fujiarashi. And down in jonokuchi it's also the expected playoff/rematch between Tokkoriki and rookie Yonamine.

Edited January 24, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Kintamayama]

Day 13:

The sandanme yusho was won by Horikiri who easily disposed of Kotodaigo,

My dream of getting to see Horikiri win by yorikiri and hearing the announcer say it is getting closer.

[krindel]

Day 13:

The sandanme yusho was won by Horikiri who easily disposed of Kotodaigo,

My dream of getting to see Horikiri win by yorikiri and hearing the announcer say it is getting closer.

Just get him to fight Chiyoo

[Mintofuji]

With Chiyomaru and Sadanoumi having opposite results on Day 13 their head-to-head has been scheduled for tomorrow after all.

Would they have been scheduled to meet for Day 14 regardless of their Day 13 results? I thought the scheduling was done before the previous day's bouts.

[Asashosakari]

My dream of getting to see Horikiri win by yorikiri and hearing the announcer say it is getting closer.

You mean you didn't receive my delivery four months ago? Darn...

[Asashosakari]

Would they have been scheduled to meet for Day 14 regardless of their Day 13 results? I thought the scheduling was done before the previous day's bouts.

The one-day-ahead scheduling is only done for makuuchi. In all other divisions the results are known before the next schedule is drawn up.

[Asashosakari]

Day 14:

The sanyaku situation has become rather complicated as of today. Kotooshu secured his kachikoshi at Tamawashi's expense (but might well go intai anyway), while Goeido kept his sekiwake chances alive and Tochiozan is now in position to force a promotion with another win tomorrow. Goeido does have at least a komusubi slot sewn up for March, so there will be at most two available spots in sanyaku - and if Osh intais, Goeido might even get to stay at sekiwake with a 7-8 yet again.

With Tamawashi losing today, he has lost ground to Toyonoshima, Shohozan and Endo, who all collected wins.

7-7 Goeido S Kotooshu 8-6

(x)0-4-10 Myogiryu K Tochiozan 10-4

7-7 Toyonoshima M1

...

9-5 Shohozan M5

8-6 Tamawashi M6

...

M10 Endo 11-3

I'm not sure if it's a case of smart thinking or just plain luck for the shimpan group, but tomorrow's schedule guarantees that we'll have one reasonably strong candidate to replace Myogiryu: Toyonoshima and Shohozan are meeting head to head, and the winner is set to be komusubi next basho. Should a second promotion be needed, somebody's going to get awfully lucky though.

It wasn't a good day to be a makuuchi rikishi in danger of demotion; all four candidates lost. For Tokitenku that means he ought to be headed down to juryo for the first time in 9 years. (Barring intai, I suppose...) Kagamio, Takanoiwa and Satoyama will have one last chance to ensure their survival tomorrow.

With the makuuchi side losing, it follows that Jokoryu and Tenkaiho both won their crossover bouts. Both should still be needing another win for a move back to the top ranks though.

Elsewhere in juryo Chiyomaru won the yusho race matchup against Sadanoumi, and with four slots now available his makuuchi debut should be assured. His yusho isn't, however, as Terunofuji was also victorious and can still force a playoff tomorrow.

Azumaryu was another winner on the penultimate day, but his return to the top division still isn't guaranteed...his worst-case scenario is a 10-5 finish with Jokoryu also 10-5, Tenkaiho at 9-6, and all three makuuchi rikishi winning. That could leave the 4th promotion to be decided between him and Tenkaiho, which could go either way. (Although the most likely outcome in that scenario is probably Kagamio getting overdemoted with 6-9 to make room for 5 promotions.)

(x) 2-12 Shotenro M11

M12

(x) 4-10 Kyokushuho M13 Tokitenku 4-10 (x)

(1) 5-9 Kagamio M14

M15 Takanoiwa 6-8 (1)

M16 Satoyama 7-7 (1)

(x) kyujo Kotoyuki M17

J1 Terunofuji 11-3 (o)

(1) 8-6 Tenkaiho J2

(?) 9-5 Jokoryu J3 Azumaryu 10-4 (?)

J4

J5 Tamaasuka 8-6 (x)

(o) 12-2 Chiyomaru J6

Azumaryu does get the chance to pull down Kagamio all by himself tomorrow, with Jokoryu-Tokitenku also set for crossover action. Takanoiwa has drawn a probably even tougher opponent with Endo, while Satoyama will face Takayasu. Tenkaiho can clinch his re-promotion against 8-6 Asasekiryu, and the juryo yusho will be decided via Chiyomaru-Sokokurai (8-6) and Terunofuji-Yoshiazuma (7-7). I'm rooting for the playoff, of course, but it's hard to see past Chiyomaru moving up to 13-2 there...

Further down today's schedule, both juryo<->makushita exchange bouts were won by the incumbents in rather easy fashion, sending Kansei and Kotomisen to a last-minute makekoshi. Akiseyama lost against Sotairyu, on the other hand, so we still have 3 juryo rikishi on the bubble for the final day.

J9 Akiseyama 4-10 (1)

J10

J11 Kimurayama 4-10 (x)

J12 Takanoyama 3-11 (x)

(1) 6-8 Sakigake J13

(1) 7-7 Higonojo J14

Ms1

(o) 4-2 Sagatsukasa Ms2

(x) 3-4 Kansei Ms3 Kotomisen 3-4 (x)

(o) 5-2 Amuru Ms4 Kitaharima 4-2

Ms5 Tosayutaka 5-2

The shimpan committee has gone for a non-standard solution to the senshuraku torikumi puzzle, putting Sakigake and Higonojo directly against each other, not against makushita opponents. That should be guaranteeing a 3rd demotion, assuming Higonojo can't get lucky with a 7-8 for back-to-back banzuke sessions. Right afterwards Akiseyama will face 7-7 Tochihiryu, while earlier in makushita Sagatsukasa and Kitaharima are also paired up. All that should - in theory anyway - make the promotion decisions pretty straight-forward: Tosayutaka gets promoted if either Kitaharima or Akiseyama loses (one would give him the 3rd slot, the other would open up a 4th), Kitaharima gets promoted if he wins OR if he loses and Akiseyama loses as well.

In practice it might be a little more complicated, especially if the relevant comparison ends up being between a 7-8 Higonojo and a 4-3 Kitaharima.

On two side notes, I'm very happy to see Sokokurai finally clinch his first post-reinstatement kachikoshi today, and I neglected to mention earlier that Wakanosato's makekoshi is his first one ever in the juryo division.

By the way, is it just me or are there awfully many sekitori this basho for whom an immediate intai isn't a completely far-fetched possibility? Kotooshu, Tokitenku, Wakanosato, Kimurayama, and arguably even Takanoyama given how completely outclassed he has looked against juryo opposition this time.

[Asashosakari]

Yikes, and I just realized one crucial oversight I've committed all week long - I completely forgot about Homasho who's also going to drop to juryo with a full kyujo. I really should stop setting up the initial Day 10 tables based on bout results instead of the banzuke... Well then, let's adjust the middle table:

M7 Homasho kyujo (x)

...

(x) 2-12 Shotenro M11

M12

(x) 4-10 Kyokushuho M13 Tokitenku 4-10 (x)

(1) 5-9 Kagamio M14

M15 Takanoiwa 6-8 (1)

M16 Satoyama 7-7 (1)

(x) kyujo Kotoyuki M17

J1 Terunofuji 11-3 (o)

(1) 8-6 Tenkaiho J2

(o) 9-5 Jokoryu J3 Azumaryu 10-4 (o)

J4

J5 Tamaasuka 8-6 (x)

(o) 12-2 Chiyomaru J6

Azumaryu is of course safe if there's an extra spot, and so is Jokoryu. Kyokushuho and Tokitenku might still be able to save themselves after all, although they'll need some losses from Kagamio/Takanoiwa/Satoyama/Tenkaiho in addition to a win of their own. Tokitenku faces Jokoryu as mentioned, but Kyokushuho has received a really tough assignment with high-ranked Aoiyama.

[Naganoyama]

Day 13:

The sandanme yusho was won by Horikiri who easily disposed of Kotodaigo,

My dream of getting to see Horikiri win by yorikiri and hearing the announcer say it is getting closer.

We had better hope that Shikoroyama Oyakata doesn't give him a shikona on his juryo promotion.

[Kintamayama]

Day 13:

The sandanme yusho was won by Horikiri who easily disposed of Kotodaigo,

My dream of getting to see Horikiri win by yorikiri and hearing the announcer say it is getting closer.

I checked and to my utter astonishment, this is the Yorikiri situation with Horikiri:

His first ever bout in Maezumo- a loss by yorikiri, but that doesn't count. Including that, from a total of 32 bouts, he has won by yorikiri in how many bouts? ONE!!!! ONE!!! It's as if he's going out of his way NOT to win by that kimarite..

[shimodahito]

Day 13:

The sandanme yusho was won by Horikiri who easily disposed of Kotodaigo,

My dream of getting to see Horikiri win by yorikiri and hearing the announcer say it is getting closer.

I checked and to my utter astonishment, this is the Yorikiri situation with Horikiri:

His first ever bout in Maezumo- a loss by yorikiri, but that doesn't count. Including that, from a total of 32 bouts, he has won by yorikiri in how many bouts? ONE!!!! ONE!!! It's as if he's going out of his way NOT to win by that kimarite..

that is an incredible find. hail to all the data base gurus!!!

is there any other situation that compares? is there any other avoidance of any of the top 10 kimarites that compare to this?!?!?!