The Wall 2013

[Ashikawazu]

This used to be one of my favorite threads for tracking up and comers, but haven't seen this up in a while, so thought I'd make an attempt to get this years edition going.
At the start of Hatsu 2013 9 Rikishi hadn't had a Maki Koshi. (minimum 3 KK)
So far 5 of those have dropped off the list.... including the longest member at this time, Daishoei
Osunaarashi, Hamaguchi, and Iwasaki have secured KK this basho, to stay on the list, with Hamaguchi and Iwasaki continuing very strong performances.

Tsugaruumi is currently 3-3 and needs a win to secure a spot for next basho.

The Wall 2013Rikishi2012.032012.052012.072012.092012.112013.01Total KKYamaguchi Ms15TD 5-2 Ms7e 4-3Ms5e 7-0 Y J9w 9-6 J5e 9-6 J1w 7-85Daishoei Jk13w 7-0 Y Jd12e 6-1Sd49e 4-3 Sd34e 5-2 Sd8e 6-1 Ms33e 2-45Osunaarashi Jk5w 7-0 YJd8w 5-1-1Sd75e 6-1Sd20e 6-1Ms38e 4-25Chiyokiryu Jk6w 6-1Jd32e 5-2Sd95w 5-2Sd64e 5-2Sd32e 1-54Tsugaruumi Jk7w 5-2Jd63e 4-3Jd36w 4-3Jd15e 4-3Sd97w 4-34Nakazono Jk14e 5-2Jd69e 4-3Jd39e 4-3Jd18e 4-3Sd99w 2-44Hamaguchi [/td]Jk16w 7-0 DJd10w 7-0 DSd18e 4-3Sd7e 6-04Iwasaki Jk17e 7-0 YJd11e 7-0 YSd18w 6-1Ms36e 4-24Tsubomi 4-3Jd82e 5-2Jd38e 4-3Jd15w 2-43Kaito Jk18w 6-1Jd42e 5-2Jd6w 4-3Sd89e 2-43
Edited January 29, 2013 by Ashikawazu

[Ashikawazu]

(Sorry my first table.. can't figure out why there is the whitespace in between opening line and the table... )

[Asojima]

This used to be one of my favorite threads for tracking up and comers, but haven't seen this up in a while, so thought I'd make an attempt to get this years edition going.

Rikishi	2012.03	2012.05	2012.07	2012.09	2012.11	2013.01	Total KK
Daishoei	Jk13w 7-0 Y	Jd12e 6-1	Sd49e 4-3	Sd34e 5-2	Sd8e 6-1	Ms33e 2-4	5
Osunaarashi		Jk5w 7-0 Y	Jd8w 5-1-1	Sd75e 6-1	Sd20e 6-1	Ms38e 4-2	5
Chiyokiryu		Jk6w 6-1	Jd32e 5-2	Sd95w 5-2	Sd64e 5-2	Sd32e 1-5	4

Tsugaruumi Jk7w 5-2Jd63e 4-3Jd36w 4-3Jd15e 4-3Sd97w 3-34Nakazono Jk14e 5-2Jd69e 4-3Jd39e 4-3Jd18e 4-3Sd99w 2-44Hamaguchi Jk16w 7-0 DJd10w 7-0 DSd18e 4-3Sd7e 6-04Iwasaki Jk17e 7-0 YJd11e 7-0 YSd18w 6-1Ms36e 4-24

Tsubomi Jk17w 4-3Jd82e 5-2Jd38e 4-3Jd15w 2-43Kaito Jk18w 6-1Jd42e 5-2Jd6w 4-3Sd89e 2-43

At the start of Hatsu 2013 9 Rikishi hadn't had a Maki Koshi. (minimum 3 KK)

So far 5 of those have dropped off the list.... including the longest member at this time, Daishoei

Osunaarashi, Hamaguchi, and Iwasaki have secured KK this basho, to stay on the list.

Tsugaruumi is currently 3-3 and needs a final list to secure a spot for next basho.

Eliminate all of the line feeds imbedded in the table code.

[Ashikawazu]

Thanks Asojima.

[Ashikawazu]

Post basho analysis:

Hamaguchi remained looking strong, taking the yusho for Sandame. Iwasaki hit some tougher competition in Makushita this basho, but still put in a great performance to obtain his KK. Osunaarashi (the Egyptian born rikishi) put in another good performance of 5-2 to stay on the list, and Tsugaruumi picked up 4 wins as well to stay secure a spot for Haru 2013.

Yamaguchi, Daishoei, Chirokiryu, Nakazono, Tsubomi, and Kaito all hit the wall in Hatsu 2013, unable to secure KK.

Surprisingly there have been no new additions to the list for Haru if I maintain a min 3 KKs, (i.e. all jonokuchi division debut's from 2012/09, and even if i go for a 2KK min, all from 2012/11 have already hit the wall :( )

therefore the list has become so small I'll drop the requirement.

Which surprisingly only adds one rikishi, Sato...

The Wall Haru 2013Rikishi2012.052012.072012.092012.112013.012013.03Total KKOsunaarashiJk5w 7-0 YJd8w 5-1-1Sd75e 6-1Sd20e 6-1Ms38e 5-2[/td]5TsugaruumiJk7w 5-2Jd63e 4-3Jd36w 4-3Jd15e 4-3Sd97w 4-35Hamaguchi Jk16w 7-0 DJd10w 7-0 DSd18e 4-3Sd7e 7-0 Y4Iwasaki Jk17e 7-0 YJd11e 7-0 YSd18w 6-1Ms36e 4-34[tr]SatoJk14e 6-1[td]1
Edited January 29, 2013 by Ashikawazu

[dingo]

Interesting results... So what might be the reason for having so many rikishi hitting the wall at an early stage? Low quality of recent recruits? Or an overall higher quality of the lower ranks, with more strong rikishi around?

[Asashosakari]

Interesting results... So what might be the reason for having so many rikishi hitting the wall at an early stage? Low quality of recent recruits? Or an overall higher quality of the lower ranks, with more strong rikishi around?

Actually, it's always been like this...

Take the largest shindeshi class ever (Haru 1992) with 132 rookies, not counting the four who were allowed to start in makushita and the 16 who failed to show up for their first basho on the banzuke:

at least 1 KK: 64

at least 2 KK: 28

at least 3 KK: 11

at least 4 KK: 5

at least 5 KK: 2

at least 6 KK: 0

And that's from a rookie class that ended up producing 4 sanyaku, 3 maegashira and 3 juryo rikishi. Of the "top 5" who achieved at least 4 straight KK, the only really noteworthy name is Kyokushuzan, maaaybe also Dewanofuji. The others didn't get anywhere near juryo so their streaks ended up not meaning anything except that they happened to have a good career start.

Maybe you're underestimating the difference in quality just between the bottom of the banzuke and the bottom of sandanme, let alone further up. The only rikishi who make it up to mid-sandanme unscathed are those with a significant track record from amateur sumo, or the very occasional raw diamonds like Akebono who can rely on their physical tools instead of experience. Most newcomers don't fall into those categories, not now and not 20 years ago.

Another factor is that being more skilled doesn't necessarily mean a longer KK streak. A new rikishi who's of lower-sandanme strength might go 5-2, 5-2, 5-2, 4-3 before he collects his first makekoshi, and a lower-makushita strength rikishi might go 7-0, 6-1, 5-2, 5-2 and also be MK in his fifth basho (but at a much higher rank, of course). And the first guy might still be the more promising prospect, if he's significantly younger than the second guy.

Ultimately, debut streaks on their own don't mean a whole lot. Makushita is littered with rikishi who had a hot start and did nothing afterwards. (The previous yumitori Shoho comes to mind as a prominent example.)

Edited January 29, 2013 by Asashosakari

[Ashikawazu]

While I certainly agree that it in no way is it a 100% inclusive method to determine who will be a strong rikishi, it is a pretty good indication of what is to come.

Since 1924, there have been 243 starts with 5 consecutive wins. (not including those who start at Ms15TD)

Of those 64 are still active, of which 30 have already reached juryo. ~47% (Still may be more to come)

Of the 179 intai who started with 5 consecutive wins, 78 made it to Juryo or better. ~44%

So your looking about a bit less that a 50% chance that if you start out with 5 wins, you'll be an elite sumo wrestler.

And even for those other 50%, most do make it Makushita.. which is still better than average.

Edited February 4, 2013 by Ashikawazu

[Ashikawazu]

Hatsu 2013 Update

Our longest wall candidate Osunaarashi, has started out strong with consecutive wins, am rooting for him to continue and avoid the wall.

Tsugaruumi and Iwasaki have had a bit more trouble. They'll have to pick it up if to avoid Hatsu 2013 in becoming their wall basho.

Hamaguchi lost yesterday when he met the collegiate champion Endo (Ms10TD), was a tough bout for him, but hopefully he'll gambarize and continue with a KK.

Sato likewise is at 1-1 and still has good opportunity to make KK as well.

The Wall Haru 2013Rikishi2012.052012.072012.092012.112013.012013.03Total KKOsunaarashiJk5w 7-0 YJd8w 5-1-1Sd75e 6-1Sd20e 6-1Ms38e 5-2Ms23e 3-15TsugaruumiJk7w 5-2Jd63e 4-3Jd36w 4-3Jd15e 4-3Sd97w 4-3Sd77e 0-45Hamaguchi [/td]Jk16w 7-0 DJd10w 7-0 DSd18e 4-3Sd7e 7-0 YMs12e 3-14Iwasaki Jk17e 7-0 YJd11e 7-0 YSd18w 6-1Ms36e 4-3Ms28w 2-24SatoJk14e 6-1Jd24w 3-11
Edited March 21, 2013 by Ashikawazu

[Ashikawazu]

Update:

Osunaarashi, the Egyptian rikishi is doing well with 3 wins at the midpoint of the basho, and on his way to another KK.

Hamaguchi and Sato similarly are on a roll, and just need 1 more win to secure their KK.

Iwasaki had a rough start, but has won his last two matches to even out to 2-2.

However Sd77 has proven to tough for Tsugaruumi, who with 4 straight losses has hit the wall at Hatsu 2013.

The Wall Haru 2013Rikishi2012.052012.072012.092012.112013.012013.03Total KKOsunaarashiJk5w 7-0 YJd8w 5-1-1Sd75e 6-1Sd20e 6-1Ms38e 5-2Ms23e 3-15TsugaruumiJk7w 5-2Jd63e 4-3Jd36w 4-3Jd15e 4-3Sd97w 4-3Sd77e 0-45Hamaguchi [/td]Jk16w 7-0 DJd10w 7-0 DSd18e 4-3Sd7e 7-0 YMs12e 3-14Iwasaki Jk17e 7-0 YJd11e 7-0 YSd18w 6-1Ms36e 4-3Ms28w 2-24[tr]Sato[td]Jk14e 6-1Jd24w 3-11

[Ashikawazu]

Latest update:

Osunaarashi is having another good basho, currently at 5-1. Good on the Egyptian.

Hamaguchi has likewise secured his KK, moving his total KK count up to 5.

Tsugaruumi has continued his troubles for a 6th straight loss, and Iwasaki has joined him by also hitting the wall at Haru 2013.

For Sato, it will come down to his final match, as he is currently sitting at a 3-3 record for the basho.

The Wall Haru 2013Rikishi2012.052012.072012.092012.112013.012013.03Total KKOsunaarashiJk5w 7-0 YJd8w 5-1-1Sd75e 6-1Sd20e 6-1Ms38e 5-2Ms23e 5-16TsugaruumiJk7w 5-2Jd63e 4-3Jd36w 4-3Jd15e 4-3Sd97w 4-3Sd77e 0-65Hamaguchi [/td]Jk16w 7-0 DJd10w 7-0 DSd18e 4-3Sd7e 7-0 YMs12e 4-25Iwasaki Jk17e 7-0 YJd11e 7-0 YSd18w 6-1Ms36e 4-3Ms28w 2-44SatoJk14e 6-1Jd24w 3-31
Edited March 21, 2013 by Ashikawazu

[Ashikawazu]

Haru has come to a close with 2 of our original 5 members hitting the wall.

While we say goodbye to Tsugaruumi and Iwasaki, Osunaarashi (especially) and Hamaguchi continued on strong in the upper echelons of Makushita, I am rooting for both of them to continue avoiding the wall.

The Wall Haru 2013Rikishi2012.052012.072012.092012.112013.012013.03Total KKOsunaarashiJk5w 7-0 YJd8w 5-1-1Sd75e 6-1Sd20e 6-1Ms38e 5-2Ms23e 6-16TsugaruumiJk7w 5-2Jd63e 4-3Jd36w 4-3Jd15e 4-3Sd97w 4-3Sd77e 1-65Hamaguchi [/td]Jk16w 7-0 DJd10w 7-0 DSd18e 4-3Sd7e 7-0 YMs12e 4-35Iwasaki Jk17e 7-0 YJd11e 7-0 YSd18w 6-1Ms36e 4-3Ms28w 3-44SatoJk14e 6-1Jd24w 4-31

Quite a few new additions to the list for Natsu, here is the lineup:

The Wall Natsu 2013Rikishi2012.052012.072012.092012.112013.012013.032013.05Total KKOsunaarashiJk5w 7-0 YJd8w 5-1-1Sd75e 6-1Sd20e 6-1Ms38e 5-2Ms23e 6-1 6Hamaguchi Jk16w 7-0 DJd10w 7-0 DSd18e 4-3Sd7e 7-0 YMs12e 4-3 5SatoJk14e 6-1Jd24w 4-3 2EndoMs10TD 5-2 1OmoriJk6e 5-2 1IshiuraJk6w 7-0 Y 1OnoshoJk7e 6-1 1MajimaJk7w 4-3 1KotoseigoJk8e 6-1 1ShimadaJk8w 4-3 1KaihoJk9e 5-2 1BarakiJk10e 6-1 1Kimishima4-3 1
Edited March 26, 2013 by Ashikawazu

[Ashikawazu]

Natsu has started, and our latest wall candidates are mostly off to a good start.

After Day 4:

Endo has started strong with consecutive wins, while Osunaarashi edged out fellow wallmate Hamaguchi on day 3, to improve his record to 2-0, giving Hamaguchi his first loss.

If the above three continue to do well, next basho we could have an rare 3 wall members in Juryo.

Concerning the new members, Ishiura is looking strong following his jonokuchi yusho last basho. The other jonokuchi graduates also faring well, all with at least 1 win.

Sato barely got by his KK last basho, and at 0-2 so far, think he may hit the wall unless he turns it around soon.

After day 8:

Osunaarashi picked up his fourth win, for another KK to put his streak to 7 basho.

The other guys in the upper Maegashira ranks, Endo, and Hamaguchi, are still in touch at 3-1 and 2-2 respectively, but looks like my hopes of 3 Juryo wall members next basho probably won't materialize.

Down in Jonidan, Ishiura, and Kaiho have breezed through the first half of the basho, both securing KK's already.

Sato has turned his poor start around with consecutive wins to put him even at 2-2, and the rest of the guys all with 3-1 records except for Majima and Shimada, both at 2-2.

Could we possibly have 0 members hitting the wall this basho???

Update After Day 12:

Good run this time. Sato and Shimada must pull off their last win to stay KK.

This basho proved too tough for Majima, who was our first casualty to hit the wall this basho.

Osunaarahsi still doing well, with a Makushita Yusho in his sights.

Everybody else has already secured KK, very successful basho for our wall members.

Final Update:

Great basho for our wall members. Osunaarashi and Ishiura picked up the Yusho's at Makushita and Jonidon respectively. Shimada finsihed up with a win, to scrape through and stay on the list,

whereas Sato joined Majima as being the second member to hit the wall at Natsu.

11 out of 13 still managed KK's, and there are a few more Jonokuchi guys that will be added to the list for Nagoya. Good job guys!

The Wall Natsu 2013Rikishi2012.052012.072012.092012.112013.012013.032013.05Total KKOsunaarashiJk5w 7-0 YJd8w 5-1-1Sd75e 6-1Sd20e 6-1Ms38e 5-2Ms23e 6-1Ms7e 7-0Y7Hamaguchi [/td]Jk16w 7-0 DJd10w 7-0 DSd18e 4-3Sd7e 7-0 YMs12e 4-3Ms8e 5-26SatoJk14e 6-1Jd24w 4-3Jd2w 3-42EndoMs10TD 5-2Ms3e 5-22OmoriJk6e 5-2Jd50e 5-22IshiuraJk6w 7-0 Y Jd8w 7-0Y2OnoshoJk7e 6-1Jd17e 6-12MajimaJk7w 4-3 Jd62w 3-41KotoseigoJk8e 6-1Jd19e 6-12ShimadaJk8w 4-3Jd63e 4-32KaihoJk9e 5-2Jd53e 6-12BarakiJk10e 6-1Jd24e 5-22Kimishima4-3Jd63w 6-12
Edited May 27, 2013 by Ashikawazu

[bettega]

And Osunaarashi gets his KK again (4-0 in day 7). Endo should get his soon, too.

I believe that Juryo is *very* close to Osunaarashi

Edited May 19, 2013 by bettega

[Ashikawazu]

And Osunaarashi gets his KK again (4-0 in day 7). Endo should get his soon, too.

I believe that Juryo is *very* close to Osunaarashi

I am definitely rooting for him. Right now lower half of Juryo, nobody is failing too hard.. (except Kimarayama) so it may be tough as he is at Ms7e, and there may not be too many spots available...

A yusho would be awesome, and would probably get him there.

[Ashikawazu]

Osunaarashi's promotion to Juryo still not 100%, right now no Juryo demotions are 100%, Kimurayama looks likely for demotion, but the other guys still have a chance to turn it around.

Both guys at Ms1 have already got KK's, so proabably need 3 demotions for even a Yusho to get Osunaarahi to Juryo.

All depends what happens at lower Juryo over the next 3 days...

Edited May 24, 2013 by Ashikawazu

[yorikiried by fate]

Osunaarashi's promotion to Juryo still not 100%,

[Vikanohara]

Ishiura is looking very promising, but I wonder whether he's not too limited given his height & weight.

[Ashikawazu]

Osunaarashi's promotion to Juryo still not 100%,

Well.. :) He just got the Yusho I think. And now we have probably have 2 Juryo members dropping down (Kimurayama and Akiseyama) if Chiyoo loses again.. then looks more like 100%..

[Ashikawazu]

Nagoya 2013 Wall Line-up:

Crapload of Jk guys after Natsu.

Also added Shineiyama

technically he may not qualify.. so I've put a * by his name. But I think he should be on the list.

The Wall Natsu 2013Rikishi2012.052012.072012.092012.112013.012013.032013.052013.07

Total KKOsunaarashiJk5w 7-0 YJd8w 5-1-1Sd75e 6-1Sd20e 6-1Ms38e 5-2Ms23e 6-1Ms7e 7-0Y 7Hamaguchi [/td]Jk16w 7-0 DJd10w 7-0 DSd18e 4-3Sd7e 7-0 YMs12e 4-3Ms8e 5-2 6EndoMs10TD 5-2Ms3e 5-2 2OmoriJk6e 5-2Jd50e 5-2 2IshiuraJk6w 7-0 Y Jd8w 7-0Y 2OnoshoJk7e 6-1Jd17e 6-1 2KotoseigoJk8e 6-1Jd19e 6-1 2ShimadaJk8w 4-3Jd63e 4-3 2KaihoJk9e 5-2Jd53e 6-1 2BarakiJk10e 6-1Jd24e 5-2 2KimishimaJk11e 4-3Jd63w 6-1 2

TochisatoJk5e 4-3 1

DaishohoJk5w 6-1 1

KobaJk6e 6-1 1

KaishoJk6w 4-3 1

AsanishimuraJk8e 5-2 1

KatsuyamaJk9w 4-3 1

YakabeJk10e 4-3 1

TakeiJk10w 4-3 1

DaishokiJk11w 4-3 1

KakehashiJk12w 4-3 1

AsauenoJk13e 4-3 1

TakayoshitoshiJk13w 5-2 1

FujiwaraJk14e 4-3 1

TakagenjiJk14w 6-1 1

AsanoJk15w 4-3 1

KotomiyakuraJk17e 4-3 1

OyamadaJk17w 4-3 1

AotoJk18w 5-2 1

DaishozenJk19w 5-2 1

TakaneJk20e 4-3 1

MasayaJk22e 4-3 1

TsunekawaJk23w 4-3 1

**ShineiyamaJk8w 7-0 Y 2

Edited May 27, 2013 by Ashikawazu

[Tsubame]

By the way, what was the longest KK-streak by a rikishi starting from the very bottom?

[Jakusotsu]

By the way, what was the longest KK-streak by a rikishi starting from the very bottom?

I don't know how to query that, but Kotooshu comes to mind who had his first MK at Komusubi in his 14th basho.

Yes, that wretched guy used to be really good.

[yorikiried by fate]

By the way, what was the longest KK-streak by a rikishi starting from the very bottom?

Interesting question. But also with a tricky margin. The thing is, if a (very good) wrestler is producing lots of 5-2s in the lower divisions, he can accumulate a lot of KKs without reaching the regions with the most difficult opponents anytime soon. So apart from the sheer number of KK, it is also about the rank at which the MK finally occured.

Anyway, a hot contender for altime greatness in this department must be Akebono, who had 18 KK before softly (7-8) hitting the wall at S1w! In fact he had only two MK (both 7-8) before reaching Ozeki, at which point of course the system is practically different.

Edited May 27, 2013 by yorikiried by fate

[Ashikawazu]

This guy had 18 KK before his first MK.

:)

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=1

[Ashikawazu]

Ah..YBF beat me to it.. :D