Kotoshogiku Ozeki Run

[tympsa]

And all of a sudden lot in yusho race depends from Baruto again. I think he cant beat Hakuho, but he certainly is able to beat Harumafuji when he has a good day. So I hope we get very interesting last 3 days.

Can anyone predict what would be last match on Sunday ( on regular tournament I mean)?

Hakuho- Baruto or Hakuho - Harumafuji ?

[Fay]

Shogi has Kakuryu on day 12. Their head-to-head record. So, which one does Fay root for??

(Bow...) Good question. Kakuryu is my number 1 for sure and he needs to collect wins for his own Ozeki run. If Shoki wins all his bouts except tomorrow he will become Ozeki too I guess.

On the other site ... I don't want Shoki to miss the promotion...

Whatever will happen, I will be not unhappy about tomorrow's result (I am not worthy...)

Edited July 20, 2011 by Fay

[Kintamayama]

Can anyone predict what would be last match on Sunday ( on regular tournament I mean)?

Hakuho- Baruto or Hakuho - Harumafuji ?

Should be Hakuhou-Baruto if we go by tradition, but who knows?

Edited July 20, 2011 by Kintamayama

[Asashosakari]

Can anyone predict what would be last match on Sunday ( on regular tournament I mean)?

Hakuho- Baruto or Hakuho - Harumafuji ?

Should be Hakuhou-Baruto if we go by tradition, but who knows?

If it's not Hakuho-Harumafuji, I know my first suggestion to those 30 people on the new audience measures committee...

[pc95]

Today's Kotoshogiku win over Hakuho looked like a thrown match to me by Hakuho. He didn't once try to throw Kotoshogiku. When Hakuho gets in trouble he always goes to his left throw underarm or overarm. Not only that, but he did a uncustomary very quick face slap on the initial charge, and a back pat after Kotoshogiku had forced him out of the ring. Looked to me like Hakuho was giving 85% or something. Much different than his record ending loss to Kisenosato earlier in the year, where it looked like a bonafide loss - him going all out and getting surprised by Kisenosato.

[pc95]

Can anyone predict what would be last match on Sunday ( on regular tournament I mean)?

Hakuho- Baruto or Hakuho - Harumafuji ?

Should be Hakuhou-Baruto if we go by tradition, but who knows?

If it's not Hakuho-Harumafuji, I know my first suggestion to those 30 people on the new audience measures committee...

It's still most probably a 4-5 man race mathematically, so at this point it could be anyone from 11-0 to 9-2.

At this point most likely is Harumafuji and Hakuho. It'd be nice to see someone other than Hakuho squeak by......

I really miss having Asashoryu in the Bashos - his presence gave far greater parity to the tournaments - even Asashoryu on the decline had a better

chance against Hakuho than anyone else.

[Kintamayama]

Today's Kotoshogiku win over Hakuho looked like a thrown match to me by Hakuho. He didn't once try to throw Kotoshogiku. When Hakuho gets in trouble he always goes to his left throw underarm or overarm. Not only that, but he did a uncustomary very quick face slap on the initial charge, and a back pat after Kotoshogiku had forced him out of the ring. Looked to me like Hakuho was giving 85% or something. Much different than his record ending loss to Kisenosato earlier in the year, where it looked like a bonafide loss - him going all out and getting surprised by Kisenosato.

He tried the whole match to get his upper left and was cleverly denied. As for slaps, he often starts a bout with a slap-I suggest you go to the videos and watch more closely. He's going for a record-he won't throw anything, especially since Harumafuji looks like an unstoppable runaway bulldozer this basho. I seriously doubt he will beat him. I say he lost the yusho today.

[Gusoyama]

Why on earth would Hakuho throw a match in a basho where he's 10-0, and there's also another rikishi at 10-0?

[Gernobono]

Why on earth would Hakuho throw a match in a basho where he's 10-0, and there's also another rikishi at 10-0?

are you not reading the above posts?

[Randomitsuki]

I tried to find evidence for the OOMPH hypothesis, where OOMPH stands for Occasional Ozeki Magical Promotion Help. Here is the result of a Doitsubase query. I looked at rikishi who were not in double digits in the first basho (in order to weed out rikishi that were obvious high-flyers), and then had 21 or more wins as Sekiwake over the second and third basho. The crucial thing is the fourth basho where the common sense among the top dogs could be "This guy deserves to become Ozeki" and help out in order to ensure that the Sekiwake in question can straddle the ridiculously high hurdle of 33 wins.

Although I did every shady trick to come up with the desired results :-), the evidence is mixed at best.

Out of 14 cases so far, eight resulted in Ozeki promotion (and in only three of those cases the shin-Ozeki immediately returned to single-digit KK).

However, there was obviously no OOMPH in place for Kotonishiki in 1991, Kaio in 1996, and Wakanosato twice (2003, 2005).

Here is the corresponding query.

Edited July 20, 2011 by Randomitsuki

[Kintamayama]

I tried to find evidence for the OOMPH hypothesis,

I think such a clique doesn't exist-if anything, on the contrary-the Ozeki (and essentially everyone else..) seem to me to be always going all out against Ozeki contenders as if to say-"You gotta really earn this.. Then, we shall see.."

Edited July 20, 2011 by Kintamayama

[yorikiried by fate]

Although I did every shady trick to come up with the desired results :-), the evidence is mixed at best.

But did you try to correlate the old data with "The last Japanese Ozeki's just left the building"?

See?

[Asashosakari]

I tried to find evidence for the OOMPH hypothesis,

I think such a clique doesn't exist-if anything, on the contrary-the Ozeki (and essentially everyone else..) seem to me to be always going all out against Ozeki contenders as if to say-"You gotta really earn this.. Then, we shall see.."

The classic argument here is that Kotomitsuki went 6-0 against Kaio and Chiyotaikai in his three promotion basho while having a mixed record against them both before and after. But of course the causation might run the other way (= finally getting a lucky dominant run against both at the same time was what caused those basho to become a successful ozeki-tori and not just another aborted attempt), and those head-to-head stats are pretty streaky all over, so getting three in a row isn't that surprising for either of these three guys, so...

In any case, as I've said before I just don't care if it's going on. 33 wins is too high a goal for "regular" ozeki promotions (only future yokozuna won't struggle to meet that goal if everything's on the up-and-up), so if anything it's just a rational response to the schizophrenic situation that the Kyokai depends on there being a steady pipeline of ozeki (and yokozuna) contenders for their business survival, but post-Futahaguro actually does everything in their power to sabotage that process. But I've already had a huge post about that a while ago, so I'll stop here.

Edited July 20, 2011 by Asashosakari

[pc95]

Today's Kotoshogiku win over Hakuho looked like a thrown match to me by Hakuho. He didn't once try to throw Kotoshogiku. When Hakuho gets in trouble he always goes to his left throw underarm or overarm. Not only that, but he did a uncustomary very quick face slap on the initial charge, and a back pat after Kotoshogiku had forced him out of the ring. Looked to me like Hakuho was giving 85% or something. Much different than his record ending loss to Kisenosato earlier in the year, where it looked like a bonafide loss - him going all out and getting surprised by Kisenosato.

He tried the whole match to get his upper left and was cleverly denied. As for slaps, he often starts a bout with a slap-I suggest you go to the videos and watch more closely. He's going for a record-he won't throw anything, especially since Harumafuji looks like an unstoppable runaway bulldozer this basho. I seriously doubt he will beat him. I say he lost the yusho today.

Hakuho favors throws with his left as his power arm. He had it locked and was trying to get his right around. More than that though, Hakuho's movement was subdued. Rewatch it and watch the way he doesnt put up fierce resistance especially towards the last third. Have a hard time believing Hakuho doesn't use and prevail with his better strength against Kotoshogiku - and that Kotoshogiku would win in that fashion. HarumaFuji has looked good, but I dont know about unstoppable.

[Doitsuyama]

Hakuho favors throws with his left as his power arm. He had it locked and was trying to get his right around. More than that though, Hakuho's movement was subdued. Rewatch it and watch the way he doesnt put up fierce resistance especially towards the last third. Have a hard time believing Hakuho doesn't use and prevail with his better strength against Kotoshogiku - and that Kotoshogiku would win in that fashion.

Well, when Kotoshogiku has his gappuri-thing going he actually is pretty much unstoppable. Even Baruto who arguably has more strength than Hakuho is left in the dust then. The key is preventing Giku's preferred position and lately he just found out better than ever how to establish his gappuri.

Hakuho is much better (actually it's even no comparison) than Baruto to prevent the preferred position of the opponent, so if you want to look for a staged match, don't look at the end of the bout but at the start and ask yourself how Kotoshogiku could get a good position. I did and to me it just is another example of a much improved tachi-ai from the ozeki candidate.

[Kuroyama]

Well, when Kotoshogiku has his gappuri-thing going he actually is pretty much unstoppable. Even Baruto who arguably has more strength than Hakuho is left in the dust then. The key is preventing Giku's preferred position and lately he just found out better than ever how to establish his gappuri.

Which is what totally floored me when Baruto fought Kotoshogiku in May. Baruto went for that damned over-the-top tsuridashi thing he does, and I was thinking as soon as I saw it that any move that lets Kotoshogiku get his belly up against you -- let alone forces him to -- is absolutely the WRONG thing. Baruto lost, of course.

[shumitto]

Before the Hakuho and Kotoshigiku my thought was "Shogiku won't "drop" this one" like he is the favorite. It's indeed a strange way of thinking taking into account their past 27 mettings (only one won by the Japanese) but the Sadogatake's rikishi is the Japanese aspirant after all so I watched the bout expecting it to be staged. Hakuho looked pretty predictable and very accepting of Kotoshogiku's onslaught as opposed to his usual self but I was so biased it's hard to tell. After watching it a second time, I believe it was legit.

[aderechelsea]

"mini-hakuho" was up for the fight today. Shogi just couldn't get the gappuri-yotsu going so he fumbled.

tomorrow he gets a freebie against Wakanosato but i have no clue who he will face on senshuraku.

i don't see this promotion happening after all. Even with 2 more wins it will feel "forced" if he becomes Ozeki

[Harry]

Someone forgot to tell Okinoumi about the Japanese ozeki shoo in plan...

[Jakusotsu]

tomorrow he gets a freebie against Wakanosato but i have no clue who he will face on senshuraku.

Takekaze, I guess.

[Vikanohara]

I wrote it before, but here it goes again : I believe Okinoumi might become the next Yokozuna.

Isn't there a poll on that matter somewhere on this forum ? (Applauding...)

[Gusoyama]

So given yesterday's results, do people still think Hakuho threw his match? If so, why?

[aderechelsea]

I wrote it before, but here it goes again : I believe Okinoumi might become the next Yokozuna.

Isn't there a poll on that matter somewhere on this forum ? (Applauding...)

i don't know about becoming Yokozuna but since his Fukuoka days he looked better than his banzuke position. Now that he's packed some beef he can be a bigger threat to other rikishi. Look at his posture in the ring and tell me he doesn't look like Hakuho at times.

sorry for derailing the conversation. Back to Shogi.

[Kintamayama]

So given yesterday's results, do people still think Hakuho threw his match? If so, why?

Nobody REALLY thinks Hakuhou threw his match. We just like to have some fun with conspiracy theories.

[yorikiried by fate]

So given yesterday's results, do people still think Hakuho threw his match? If so, why?

Nobody REALLY thinks Hakuhou threw his match. We just like to have some fun with conspiracy theories.

Yes.

See upcoming ST daily.

I certainly do.

And that is also true.