Longest ongoing kachikoshi streaks

[Asashosakari]

An earlyish start into the new year here, lest I get scooped on my own thread again... Welcome to the game where we look at those rikishi who've done very well for themselves of late, more specifically by stringing together at least 5 straight KK. After the bottom half of the large Kyushu ballot was cleared out almost completely we're down to 9 rikishi this time around. As always, just predict whether they'll finish with another KK or see their streak snapped in Hatsu basho:

Edited December 29, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Asojima]

1. Hakuho KK

2. Kotooshu KK

3. Baruto KK

4. Akiseyama MK

Nionoumi KK

Raiko MK

Masumiura KK

8. Kotokuni MK

Sasakiyama KK

And we will have 11 in the list for the March basho.

Note: Correct link above should be Kotokuni

Edited December 29, 2010 by Asojima

[Profomisakari]

1. Hakuho KK

2. Kotooshu KK

3. Baruto KK

4. Akiseyama MK

Nionoumi MK

Raiko MK

Masumiura KK

8. Kotokuni MK

Sasakiyama KK

Let's have 10 names in our new list after Senshuraku!

Profomisakari

[Asashosakari]

Note: Correct link above should be Kotokuni

Oops, fixed. Thanks. I still had sumodb.sumogames.com in the links and made a (too) hasty edit.

[shumitto]

1. Hakuho kk

2. Kotooshu kk

3. Baruto kk

4. Akiseyama mk

Nionoumi mk

Raiko mk

Masumiura kk

8. Kotokuni mk

Sasakiyama mk

9 kk

[Achiyama]

Edited January 7, 2011 by Achiyama

[kuroimori]

1. Hakuho KK

2. Kotooshu KK

3. Baruto KK

4. Akiseyama MK

5. Nionoumi MK

6. Raiko MK

7. Masumiura KK

8. Kotokuni KK

9. Sasakiyama KK

and 12 names will be on the list for Haru 2011.

yoroshiku,

kuroimori

[ryafuji]

1. Hakuho KK

2. Kotooshu KK

3. Baruto KK

4. Akiseyama MK

Nionoumi MK

Raiko KK

Masumiura KK

8. Kotokuni MK

Sasakiyama KK

Tie-break: 12

[Holleshoryu]

1. Hakuho KK

2. Kotooshu KK

3. Baruto KK

4. Akiseyama KK

Nionoumi KK

Raiko KK

Masumiura MK

8. Kotokuni MK

Sasakiyama KK

Tie-break: 11

[Jejima]

1. Hakuho KK

2. Kotooshu KK

3. Baruto KK

4. Akiseyama KK

Nionoumi KK

Raiko MK

Masumiura MK

8. Kotokuni KK

Sasakiyama KK

TB = 15

[Fay]

Hakuho KK

Kotooshu KK

Baruto KK

Akiseyama MK

Nionoumi MK

Raiko KK

Masumiura KK

Kotokuni KK

Sasakiyama MK

TB: 11

[Gusoyama]

1. Hakuho KK

2. Kotooshu KK

3. Baruto KK

4. Akiseyama KK

Nionoumi MK

Raiko MK

Masumiura KK

8. Kotokuni MK

Sasakiyama KK

TB 14

[Vikanohara]

A pretty small bunch left.

KK Hakuho

KK Kotooshu

KK Baruto

KK Akiseyama

MK Nionoumi

KK Raiko

MK Masumiura

MK Kotokuni

KK Sasakiyama

tie-breaker : 13

[Asashosakari]

Flyng blind with no database, oh well.

Hakuho KK

Kotooshu KK

Baruto KK

Akiseyama KK

Nionoumi MK

Raiko MK

Masumiura MK

Kotokuni KK

Sasakiyama KK

TB 11

[Mmikasazuma]

Hakuho KK

Kotooshu KK

Baruto KK

Akiseyama KK

Nionoumi MK

Raiko KK

Masumiura MK

Kotokuni KK

Sasakiyama KK

TB: 13

[Asashosakari]

Won't somebody bet against Osh or Bart? No? Oh well. Good thing Kaio's only 3 KK from reappearing in the game. :-P (Still, does this game need fixes to how the yokozuna and ozeki are handled? I honestly don't know.)

Anyway, welcome to another edition of the currently least popular forum game! No rookie players among the 13 of you who submitted a guess, but shumitto is back after skipping the last two rounds and dropping to the bottom of the banzuke. Here are the selection stats for Hatsu basho:

Player	Hakuho	Oshu	Baruto	Akise	Nio	Raiko	Masu	Kuni	Sasa	TB
Holleshoryu	+	+	+	+	+	+	-	-	+	11
Jejima	+	+	+	+	+	-	-	+	+	15
Mmikasazuma	+	+	+	+	-	+	-	+	+	13
Vikanohara	+	+	+	+	-	+	-	-	+	13
Gusoyama	+	+	+	+	-	-	+	-	+	14
Asashosakari	+	+	+	+	-	-	-	+	+	11
Asojima	+	+	+	-	+	-	+	-	+	11
Fay	+	+	+	-	-	+	+	+	-	11
ryafuji	+	+	+	-	-	+	+	-	+	12
Achiyama	+	+	+	-	-	+	-	+	+	13
kuroimori	+	+	+	-	-	-	+	+	+	12
Profomisakari	+	+	+	-	-	-	+	-	+	10
shumitto	+	+	+	-	-	-	+	-	-	9
	13:0	13:0	13:0	6:7	3:10	6:7	7:6	6:7	11:2

The most important note first: No more robopick by Profomisakari! Perhaps not surprising after last basho's all-KK prediction ended up 5-10. At any rate, fortunately the six non-sanyaku rikishi to predict this time around remain suitably confounding for an interesting game. Four of them ended up receiving selections that are as split down the middle as possible with an odd number of players, and the two landsliders are predicted to slide in opposite directions. No player went against the grain in both selections. All in all the most unusual picks were submitted by Fay, while Profomisakari produced the most average ballot picking with the majority for all 9 slots, but with 7 of 9 picks either unanimous or a near 50/50 split the numbers don't really mean a lot this basho.

None of the entries are identical, so we're guaranteed a yusho winner after the ballot comparisons, if not earlier. The average tie-breaker prediction is a hair under 12 (and the distribution is nearly symmetrical, in fact), so our collective wisdom predicts a rather enlarged ballot for the next basho. But for now: Good luck in this one, everyone!

Edited January 12, 2011 by Asashosakari

[Vikanohara]

Won't somebody bet against Osh or Bart? No? Oh well. Good thing Kaio's only 3 KK from reappearing in the game. :-) (Still, does this game need fixes to how the yokozuna and ozeki are handled? I honestly don't know.)

Perhaps for Yokozuna :

when there's only one : bet whether he will win the yusho or not

when there are several : bet whether they will win 12x or not

And for Ozeki perhaps bet whether they will win 10x or not

Just an idea to make if a bit more interesting to bet on them.

[Jejima]

Won't somebody bet against Osh or Bart? No? Oh well. Good thing Kaio's only 3 KK from reappearing in the game. :-) (Still, does this game need fixes to how the yokozuna and ozeki are handled? I honestly don't know.)

Perhaps for Yokozuna :

when there's only one : bet whether he will win the yusho or not

when there are several : bet whether they will win 12x or not

And for Ozeki perhaps bet whether they will win 10x or not

Just an idea to make if a bit more interesting to bet on them.

Good suggestions.

But, to clarify, if an Ozeki were to score 9 wins, would he be out of the game for the next basho? I think they should be kept in (as long as they get a KK), as their KK streak has continued.

[Vikanohara]

If he goes KK but below the target, I would keep them in, yes.

[Asojima]

KISS. Why mess with a good thing?

[Vikanohara]

Maybe because there's not much to it to guess whether Hakuho is going to get another KK ?

Even not for Baruto & Kotooshu ? Apart from a possible injury that would make them drop out.

But that would only be for the sixth sensers around here.

[Asashosakari]

But, to clarify, if an Ozeki were to score 9 wins, would he be out of the game for the next basho? I think they should be kept in (as long as they get a KK), as their KK streak has continued.

Yeah, the fact that the tie-breaker (really just a "survives for next basho" counter) wouldn't quite match the main predictions to make is one of the parts I'm struggling with. Rikishi with KK but missing the target line would definitely stay in for the next round, but I'm not sure how to count them for tie-breaker purposes.

Perhaps for Yokozuna :

when there's only one : bet whether he will win the yusho or not

when there are several : bet whether they will win 12x or not

And for Ozeki perhaps bet whether they will win 10x or not

Thanks for the ideas, I was initially thinking along those same lines. An alternative idea I've been considering, comments welcome: Predict whether the ozeki/yokozuna beats his own average of the last 5 basho. (5 because that's the minimum KK streak required to get onto the list.) For this basho the targets would have been:

Hakuho 15-0 (14.8)

Baruto 11-4 (10.4)

Kotooshu 10-5 (9.4)

KISS. Why mess with a good thing?

I know. But I'm really kinda bored with the uniformity of the top picks. ;-)

Edited January 14, 2011 by Asashosakari

[Vikanohara]

Raiko already KK (4-0), Sasakiyama already MK (0-4).

And of course Hakuho already KK as well (8-0).

Several others are close already.

[Asashosakari]

Day 8:

Indeed, I technically missed a Day 7 update when Sasakiyama dropped to MK. But with Raiko's early KK today we had another decision anyway, and this one resulted in more points than the Sasakiyama makekoshi which only Fay and shumitto predicted. Fay also finds herself on the right side of today's decision and takes the early lead, and that's not to mention an excellent position for a potential yusho tie-breaker by getting the lowest bracket correct via Sasakiyama. Oh yeah, and that Hakuho guy collected his 8th win today, too, so everybody's got at least one point. (More rules feedback still welcome, BTW.)

Day 8: 3/9 Decisions, TB 2-19
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Fay	3	11
2	shumitto	2	9
3	Holleshoryu	2	11
4	ryafuji	2	12
5	Achiyama	2	13
5	Mmikasazuma	2	13
5	Vikanohara	2	13
8	Profomisakari	1	10
9	Asashosakari	1	11
9	Asojima	1	11
11	kuroimori	1	12
12	Gusoyama	1	14
13	Jejima	1	15

[Asashosakari]

Day 9: Early kachikoshi for Kotooshu and Baruto...hey, second basho in a row that the ozeki squad aren't embarrassing themselves. (Sign of approval...) No change in the standings except everybody now has two more points.

The first backup decision has also come in with Mongolian semi-prospect Kagamio falling to MK in his first trip into makushita-joi.