Banzuke discussion for Hatsu 2011

[Asashosakari]

Should be one of the more interesting GTB contests in a while...

- Kotoshogiku or Toyonoshima for the second sekiwake slot?

- 4 or 5 lower sanyaku? If 5, three komusubi or three sekiwake? If 4, who's out - Toyonoshima or Kakuryu?

- 3, 4 or 5 promotions to makuuchi? If 3, with Toyozakura or with Kaisei?

I haven't worked on my own guess yet at all, but I figured I'll open up the thread anyway. :-) FWIW, my current mood: Giku, three komusubi, and four up from juryo...not sure at all though. What do you guys think?

Random throw-in to make this post a litle less bare-bones, a makushita-joi guess (presumed new high rank for rikishi in red):

Tosanoumi

[Gusoyama]

FWIW, I'd say that they're going to avoid 5 sanyaku at all costs.

[ryafuji]

My current feeling is Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku for sekiwake, with Toyonoshima and Tochiozan as komusubi with Kakuryu missing out. (Incidentally that would make it an all-Japanese lower sanyaku - when did that last happen I wonder?). I see only three promotions to makuuchi, with Wakakoyu, Toyohibiki and Toyozakur going up. We may have to wait another tournament to see the first ever Brazilian in the top division.

[Pippooshu]

I think Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku for Sekiwake status with Kakuryu and Tochiozan like Komusubi, but...there's one possibility about Toyonoshima become Komusubi also. I remember there were three Komusubi in the past. It's very rare but not impossible.

[sekitori]

My current feeling is Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku for sekiwake, with Toyonoshima and Tochiozan as komusubi with Kakuryu missing out.

How can you demote Tochiozan who had the same 7-8 record as Kakuryu to Komusubi while dropping Kakuryu out of Sanyaku? That makes no sense at all. I realize that having Japanese filling the Komusubi and Sekiwake ranks might please Japanese fans, but a move like that is not the way to do it.

As for Toyonoshima, I see no problem promoting him to Komusubi if they care to have three rikshis at that rank. If there will be only two, then Toynoshima should have to settle for Maegashira 1E for now. If his past tournament record was no fluke, he will be back in Sanyaku soon enough.

[ryafuji]

My current feeling is Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku for sekiwake, with Toyonoshima and Tochiozan as komusubi with Kakuryu missing out.

How can you demote Tochiozan who had the same 7-8 record as Kakuryu to Komusubi while dropping Kakuryu out of Sanyaku? That makes no sense at all.

Er... because Tochiozan was ranked higher, at Sekwake East as opposed to Kakuryu's Sekiwake West. I would put Kakuryu at Maegashira 1 East.

[Jejima]

There is no need for a 7-8 Sekiwake to remain in sanyaku, if there are better candidates to take the place..... I think Kakuryu may be M1E too - not because the Kyokai wants an all Japanese lower sanyaku, but because he is the least deserving of a place in it...

[yorikiried by fate]

Looking at the banzuke situation, there may be not enough candidates for the M1-M3 slots. This alone makes it likely that either Kakuryu or Toyonoshima will be ranked Maegashira and that no third Komusubi will be introduced.

[EizoShita]

Y-E Hakuho

O1-E Kaio

O1-W Baruto

O2-E Kotooshu

O2-W Harumafuji

S1-E Kisenosato

S1-W Toyonoshima

S2-W"HD" Kotoshogiku

K-E Tochiozan

K-W Kakuryu

M1-E Aminishiki

M1-W Tochinoshin

M2-E Yoshikaze

M2-W Tamawashi

M3-E Goeido

M3-W Homasho

M4-E Asasekiryu

M4-W Tokusegawa

M5-E Kyokutenho

M5-W Aran

M6-E Gagamaru

M6-W Takekaze

M7-E Tosayutaka

M7-W Kitataiki

M8-E Wakanosato

M8-W Tokitenku

M9-E Hakuba

M9-W Takamisakari

M10-E Shimotori

M10-W Miyabiyama

M11-E Kotokasuga

M11-W Mokonami

M12-E Kimurayama

M12-W Wakakoyu

M13-E Kokkai

M13-W Shotenro

M14-E Koryu

M14-W Toyohibiki

M15-E Okinoumi

M15-W Toyozakura

M16-E Sokokurai

M16-W Tochinonada

[Asojima]

Interesting guesses. Why not join the fun at Guess the Banzuke?

Edited December 5, 2010 by Asojima

[Asashosakari]

Interesting guesses. Why not join the fun at Guess the Banzuke?

He might be one of the three new players I'm spotting in the early submissions. :-)

(Incidentally, no Kyushu results in the archive...?)

(Incidentally that would make it an all-Japanese lower sanyaku - when did that last happen I wonder?)

It's nearly obscured by the mists of time, but...Natsu 2010. (Big fish...)

Edited December 5, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Kintamayama]

Intriguingly, Eizoshita means "What a system!" in Hebrew. For real.

[Asashosakari]

Intriguingly, Eizoshita means "What a system!" in Hebrew. For real.

Well, the Kyokai could certainly do worse than with that formula (at least this time). Heck, I do essentially the same for the Seki games, just with different parameters...

[Feginowaka]

There is no need for a 7-8 Sekiwake to remain in sanyaku, if there are better candidates to take the place..... I think Kakuryu may be M1E too - not because the Kyokai wants an all Japanese lower sanyaku, but because he is the least deserving of a place in it...

I made exhaustive analysis of mk-Sanyaku in the past and I am convinced that Kakuryu will stay at Komusubi.

You are right, "if there are better candidates to take the place", it's possible to demote a 7-8-Sekiwake to M1e.

But a M9w with 14-1 is not enough.

Not even a M5w with 12-3 was enough after Haru 2008 (Shaking head...)

Looking at the banzuke situation, there may be not enough candidates for the M1-M3 slots. This alone makes it likely that either Kakuryu or Toyonoshima will be ranked Maegashira and that no third Komusubi will be introduced.

This is NO reason for denying a 3rd Komusubi slot.

Even if there were 10 candidates for the M1-M3 slots, the Banzuke committee would NOT create a 3rd Komusubi slot to avoid a jam at the M1-Me ranks.

All my comments are based on my own analysis and might be proven wrong by the Banzuke Committee as they tend to surprise us with strange decisions... (Dribbling...)

Edited December 6, 2010 by Feginowaka

[ryafuji]

You are right, "if there are better candidates to take the place", it's possible to demote a 7-8-Sekiwake to M1e.

But a M9w with 14-1 is not enough.

Not even a M5w with 12-3 was enough after Haru 2008 (Shaking head...)

In that instance there was only one sanyaku slot available as the other three all KK'd.

If Toyonoshima is not in sanyaku in January after going 14-1 and taking part in a kettei-sen, and all four current sanyaku going make-koshi, I'll eat my hat.

Edited December 7, 2010 by ryafuji

[ryafuji]

(Incidentally that would make it an all-Japanese lower sanyaku - when did that last happen I wonder?)

It's nearly obscured by the mists of time, but...Natsu 2010. (Shaking head...)

(Dribbling...) Long enough ago for a mention in Banzuke Topics next time, I bet...

[Jakusotsu]

If Toyonoshima is not in sanyaku in January after going 14-1 and taking part in a kettei-sen, and all four current sanyaku going make-koshi, I'll eat my hat.

But perhaps Toyonoshima still has to atone for his sins isn't deemed ready for sanyaku yet?

Neither Kakuryu nor Toyonoshima as M1 would stretch my eyebrows as far as 3 Komusubi/Sekiwake would. Decisions, decisions...

[Kotoviki]

You are right, "if there are better candidates to take the place", it's possible to demote a 7-8-Sekiwake to M1e.

But a M9w with 14-1 is not enough.

Not even a M5w with 12-3 was enough after Haru 2008 (Dribbling...)

In that instance there was only one sanyaku slot available as the other three all KK'd.

If Toyonoshima is not in sanyaku in January after going 14-1 and taking part in a kettei-sen, and all four current sanyaku going make-koshi, I'll eat my hat.

If this was facebook I'd hit the "like" button here for sure!! (Shaking head...)

I sure think Toyonoshima deserves it! Got my fingers crossed!!!!

[Asashosakari]

I made exhaustive analysis of mk-Sanyaku in the past and I am convinced that Kakuryu will stay at Komusubi.

You are right, "if there are better candidates to take the place", it's possible to demote a 7-8-Sekiwake to M1e.

But a M9w with 14-1 is not enough.

Not even a M5w with 12-3 was enough after Haru 2008 (Dribbling...)

The longer I'm staring at the last few years' worth of banzukes, the more I'm coming around to that view. This would be much easier if Toyonoshima had taken the yusho... (Shaking head...) Not sure I'm ready to junk my Toyonoshima-at-K2w attempt just yet, though.

Edited December 8, 2010 by Asashosakari

[kuroimori]

I made exhaustive analysis of mk-Sanyaku in the past and I am convinced that Kakuryu will stay at Komusubi.

You are right, "if there are better candidates to take the place", it's possible to demote a 7-8-Sekiwake to M1e.

But a M9w with 14-1 is not enough.

Not even a M5w with 12-3 was enough after Haru 2008 ;-)

The longer I'm staring at the last few years' worth of banzukes, the more I'm coming around to that view. This would be much easier if Toyonoshima had taken the yusho... (Dribbling...) Not sure I'm ready to junk my Toyonoshima-at-K2w attempt just yet, though.

I am also still not sure where to put Toyo.

While Haru 2008 is a compelling point, looking at Kyushu 2000 when M9w Kotomitsuki earned himself a promotion to S1w with a 13-2 Jun-Yusho performance and taking the shukun-sho and kanto-sho, Toyonoshima's Doten Kettei-sen loss could just be enough for the K2w spot at Hatsu 2011.

But looking at Kyushu 2000 more closely there were 3 Yoks, 5 Ozeki, both Sekiwake and one Komusbi with MK and the first Maegashira with KK being at the M6e-spot as well as the fact that Kotomitsuki achieved 1 kinboshi and 3 ginboshi makes it difficult to compare - and so I will most likely be sitting on the fence till the GTB deadline comes. (Shaking head...)

Edited December 8, 2010 by kuroimori

[Kotononami]

Remember that Kotoshogiku had not been promoted to komusubi with a 10-5 and gino-sho at M2e (Kyushu 06/ Hatsu 07)

For me Toyonoshima will be ranked at M1e.

[Randomitsuki]

Just to raise a (counter-)point that might be completely irrelevant: I have checked for constellations where a Maegashira 9 had five wins more than a Maegashira 1. This yielded a much larger sample, and in an overwhelming majority of cases the M9 was higher ranked on the next banzuke.

[Asashosakari]

Just to raise a (counter-)point that might be completely irrelevant: I have checked for constellations where a Maegashira 9 had five wins more than a Maegashira 1. This yielded a much larger sample, and in an overwhelming majority of cases the M9 was higher ranked on the next banzuke.

On the other hand there's that M5w 12-3 Feginowaka mentioned, who failed to pass a M1e 8-7. In any case, how much of that sample remains if it's restricted to KK/KK and MK/MK cases? I don't think it's very surprising that a KK M9 ends up ahead of a MK M1 if there's a five-win difference. (I'll just go ahead: Looks like 10 on the MK side and none on the KK side. 4 MK cases had the counterintuitive outcome, but with this exception all from 1971 and before.)

I do think the likelihood that Kotoshogiku gets stuck at M1e is actually larger than that Kakuryu does.* Luckily, for all those who end up submitting a 4-sanyaku guess to GTB this would only cost them 4 points, unlike getting the number of sanyaku completely wrong... Argh, what to do.

* There's only one case ever that paired sanyaku 7-8's were demoted to different ranks, and it was at komusubi, not sekiwake. Admittedly the current situation looks like a good one to start.

[Oshirokita]

I had been pondering whether an extra sanyaku spot would force an extra demotion at the bottom of Makuuchi to allow more than 3 Juryo promotions. But, even with Toyonoshima as a 3rd sekiwake (or, more likely to me, 3rd komusubi) there just doesn't seem to be a 4th demotion from Makuuchi. Tochinonada will probably stay up, so tough luck to Kaisei.

I have chosen Toyonoshima at K2w but I would not be shocked at a different outcome.

[ryafuji]

Let's not overlook Kotonishiki in November 1998 (M12W 14-1Y -> K2E) and and Takatoriki in March 2000 (M14W 13-2Y -> K2W, although there were few other promotion candidates in this case). Admittedly both those were yusho winners but isn't a kettei-sen supposed to be an "equivalent performance"? (Shaking head...)

Edited December 9, 2010 by ryafuji