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Longest ongoing kachikoshi streaks: The Edge of Reason

Asashosakari

By Asashosakari
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Asashosakari Dai-yokozuna

Asashosakari

Posted
Posted

Hello, this is Nagoya calling, here are the votes of the Japanese jury: Longest ongoing kachikoshi streaks 12 points! Erm...welcome once more to the game where we track rikishi who have enjoyed a recent string of success. After an untimely off-dohyo intervention you may have heard about this edition is suddenly down to just 12 rikishi who still sport an uninterrupted KK streak of at least 5 basho (and will actually be able to continue it this month). As always, just predict whether they'll finish with another KK or see their streak snapped:

Asojima Yokozuna

Asojima

Posted
Posted

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji KK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Kaio MK

Sokokurai KK

6. Takayasu KK

7. Sakaguchi MK

8. Baruto KK

Tochihiryu KK

10. Hakuba MK

Gagamaru MK

Sasayama MK

and the 4 to be added in September gives us a tiebreaker of 11.

Profomisakari Yokozuna

Profomisakari

Posted
Posted (edited)

The same procedure as last basho:

I guess, that all of the named 12 boys hold their KK streak.

But on the end of the basho (tiebreaker) we'll have 12 boys (not the same) in our new list with 5 or more KK in a row.

Profomisakari

Edit: You are right Pierre! To count is very difficult. Thank you!

Profo

Edited by Profomisakari
Gusoyama Ozeki

Gusoyama

Posted
Posted

Hakuho, Harumafuji, Kotooshu, Kaio, Sakaguchi, Baruto, Gagamaru +5 others. 12 total, not the same 12 as Profmisakari though. Heavens no.

Holleshoryu Sekiwake

Holleshoryu

Posted
Posted

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji KK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Kaio KK

Sokokurai KK

6. Takayasu KK

7. Sakaguchi KK

8. Baruto KK

Tochihiryu KK

10. Hakuba MK

Gagamaru KK

Sasayama MK

and 14

shumitto Sekiwake

shumitto

Posted
Posted

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji KK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Kaio KK

Sokokurai MK

6. Takayasu MK

7. Sakaguchi MK

8. Baruto KK

Tochihiryu KK

10. Hakuba MK

Gagamaru KK

Sasayama MK

and 11 as the tb.

Mmikasazuma Komusubi

Mmikasazuma

Posted
Posted

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji KK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Kaio MK

Sokokurai KK

6. Takayasu MK

7. Sakaguchi KK

8. Baruto KK

Tochihiryu KK

10. Hakuba MK

Gagamaru KK

Sasayama MK

11

Achiyama Dai-yokozuna

Achiyama

Posted
Posted (edited)

My entry is:

Hakuho KK

Harumafuji KK

Kotooshu KK

Kaio KK

Sokokurai KK

Takayasu MK

Sakaguchi MK

Baruto KK

Tochihiryu KK

Hakuba MK

Gagamaru KK

Sasayama MK

Tie-breaker # is 14

Achiyama

Edited by Achiyama
Sashohitowa Komusubi

Sashohitowa

Posted
Posted

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji KK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Kaio KK

Sokokurai MK

6. Takayasu KK

7. Sakaguchi MK

8. Baruto KK

Tochihiryu MK

10. Hakuba MK

Gagamaru MK

Sasayama MK

tie-breaker 11

Jejima Dai-yokozuna

Jejima

Posted
Posted

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji KK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Kaio KK

Sokokurai KK

6. Takayasu KK

7. Sakaguchi KK

8. Baruto KK

Tochihiryu MK

10. Hakuba MK

Gagamaru KK

Sasayama MK

Tie-breaker.... Lucky 13 (Sign of disapproval...)

Vikanohara Ozeki

Vikanohara

Posted
Posted

KK Hakuho

KK Harumafuji

KK Kotooshu

KK Kaio

KK Sokokurai

MK Takayasu

KK Sakaguchi

KK Baruto

MK Tochihiryu

MK Hakuba

KK Gagamaru

MK Sasayama

TB : 12

Fay Yokozuna

Fay

Posted
Posted

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji KK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Kaio KK

Sokokurai MK

6. Takayasu KK

7. Sakaguchi KK

8. Baruto KK

Tochihiryu MK

10. Hakuba MK

Gagamaru MK

Sasayama KK

Tie breaker 11

Asashosakari Dai-yokozuna

Asashosakari

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Let's go with:

+ Hakuho

+ Harumafuji

+ Kotooshu

+ Kaio

+ Sokokurai

- Takayasu

- Sakaguchi

+ Baruto

- Tochihiryu

- Hakuba

+ Gagamaru

- Sasayama

TB 11

Still two hours till the deadline if somebody wants to give it a shot. (In a state of confusion...)

Asashosakari Dai-yokozuna

Asashosakari

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

With a bit of a delay here are the selection stats. Looks like the ballot is in need of some fresh blood and/or some upsets, as the number of unanimous or extremely lopsided picks is very high this time around. 12 players, same as two months ago, with shumitto replacing ryafuji in the lineup.

Player

Hakuho

Haru

Oshu

Kaio

Soko

T'yasu

Saka

Baruto

T'hiryu

Hakuba

Gaga

Sasa

TB
Profomisakari

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

12
Holleshoryu

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

14
Jejima

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

+

-

13
Vikanohara

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

-

-

+

-

12
Achiyama

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

+

+

-

+

-

14
Asashosakari

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

+

-

-

+

-

11
Fay

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

-

-

+

11
Sashohitowa

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

-

-

-

-

11
Gusoyama

+

+

+

+

-

-

+

+

-

-

+

-

12
shumitto

+

+

+

+

-

-

-

+

+

-

+

-

11
Asojima

+

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

-

-

11
Mmikasazuma

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

-

11
 

12:0

12:0

12:0

10:2

8:4

6:6

7:5

12:0

6:6

1:11

9:3

2:10

 

Unanimous selections for the yokozuna and all three foreign ozeki, only Kaio received his customary couple of nay votes. Sokokurai actually got more thumbs up than last basho (from essentially the same group of players), it'll be interesting if he can keep his steady march towards - and, due to circumstances, probably right into - makuuchi going. Gagamaru already took that step for Nagoya, and opinions are equally favourable on his likelihood of starting his makuuchi career with a kachikoshi.

Down in makushita, I'm feeling relieved that (unlike in Natsu) I'm actually not the only player to vote against Sakaguchi. Those votes may well be decisive, together with those on the youngster pair of Takayasu and Tochihiryu. In an interesting twist, all four prediction combinations on these two (++ / +- / -+ / --) were entered exactly three times, so somebody is bound to be happy about the outcome of these tough two picks.

Lastly, lopsided negative predictions prevail for shin-komusubi Hakuba and lowest-ranked ballot member Sasayama. Profomisakari's robo-ballot could be the big winner here if they overcome the perceived odds.

First standings on the middle weekend at the earliest, as always.

Edited by Asashosakari
Asashosakari Dai-yokozuna

Asashosakari

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Day 8 only saw Hakuho achieve the earliest-possible kachikoshi which everyone predicted correctly, so here's the first proper update for Day 9:

Lots of decisions in the lower divisions today, as both young prospect Takayasu and ballot-jiri Sasayama fell to 1-4 ending their KK streaks. Only Fay and Profomisakari did not have that outcome for Sasayama, while the Takayasu picks were split right down the middle, giving us 6 leaders for now. In backup action we have our first two qualifiers for ballot status: semi-prospects Karatsuumi and Fukugoriki are both 4-1 to secure their 5th straight KK after lengthy injury absences. Down in sandanme backupper Higonoryu dropped to 1-4. Lastly, Amuru's Day 7 withdrawal after 3 losses also doomed him to MK.

Day 9:

3/12 Decisions, TB 3-17

Pos

Player

 Pts TB

1

 Asashosakari

3

11

1

 Mmikasazuma

3

11

1

 shumitto

3

11

4

 Gusoyama

3

12

4

 Vikanohara

3

12

6

 Achiyama

3

14

7

 Asojima

2

11

7

 Sashohitowa

2

11

9

 Jejima

2

13

10

 Holleshoryu

2

14

11

 Fay

1

11

12

 Profomisakari

1

12

Up for tomorrow: Another backup rikishi (Terashita) tries to avoid seeing his own return from injury end significantly less well than the other two's. He goes against the last basho's sandanme yusho winner Takunishiki with mutual MK on the line. Main lister Sakaguchi is in the same position against Fukunohana. In the sekitori ranks Kotooshu can clinch KK against Kaio, while Hakuba will try to stave off his 8th loss against Tochiozan.

Edited by Asashosakari
Asashosakari Dai-yokozuna

Asashosakari

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Day 10:

Two more points for (almost) everyone via Kotooshu's KK and shin-komusubi Hakuba's MK. (Profomisakari's all-optimism ballot isn't looking good so far...) More contentious were the Sakaguchi picks, and the slight minority who bet on a makekoshi is rewarded for that today. No change in the backup list as Terashita managed to hang in there for now.

Still too early to say anything definite, but it looks like our collective TB range of 11-14 may end up being guessed too high again. The leading group was cut in half by today's decisions:

Day 10:

6/12 Decisions, TB 4-15

Pos

Player

 Pts TB

1

 Asashosakari

6

11

1

 shumitto

6

11

3

 Achiyama

6

14

4

 Asojima

5

11

4

 Mmikasazuma

5

11

4

 Sashohitowa

5

11

7

 Gusoyama

5

12

7

 Vikanohara

5

12

9

 Jejima

4

13

10

 Holleshoryu

4

14

11

 Fay

3

11

12

 Profomisakari

2

12
Asashosakari Dai-yokozuna

Asashosakari

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Day 11:

Baruto became the next unanimously-picked ozeki to achieve KK, while makushita Tochihiryu dropped to 2-4 completing the washout of our lower-division rikishi. 6 players had that MK on their ballots but only one leader, therefore:

Day 11:

8/12 Decisions, TB 5-14

Pos

Player

 Pts TB

1

 Asashosakari

8

11

2

 Sashohitowa

7

11

2

 shumitto

7

11

4

 Gusoyama

7

12

4

 Vikanohara

7

12

6

 Achiyama

7

14

7

 Asojima

6

11

7

 Mmikasazuma

6

11

9

 Jejima

6

13

10

 Fay

5

11

11

 Holleshoryu

5

14

12

 Profomisakari

3

12

I'll credit the Kaio MK as soon as he's officially at 8 losses+absences.

Up for tomorrow: Harumafuji gets his first shot at win #8, as does Sokokurai in a makuuchi visit (which would likely also clinch his promotion for Aki). Plenty of action in the backup ranks as well with potential tie-breaker ramifications - Terashita tries to avoid makekoshi against struggling Aoiyama, young prospect Chiyonokuni is in the same position against rookie collegian Azumaryu, while makushita regular Hidenofuji can secure his KK against ex-sekitori veteran Yanagawa.

Asashosakari Dai-yokozuna

Asashosakari

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Day 12:

Two more decisions have come in with kachikoshi for Harumafuji and Sokokurai. On the backup side everybody lost, sending Terashita and Chiyonokuni to MK, while Hidenofuji will get one last shot.

Day 12:

10/12 Decisions, TB 7-12

Pos

Player

 Pts TB

1

 Asashosakari

10

11

2

 Vikanohara

9

12

3

 Achiyama

9

14

4

 Asojima

8

11

4

 Mmikasazuma

8

11

4

 Sashohitowa

8

11

4

 shumitto

8

11

8

 Gusoyama

8

12

9

 Jejima

8

13

10

 Holleshoryu

7

14

11

 Fay

6

11

12

 Profomisakari

5

12

And with that we can most likely crown the yusho winner already. Congrats Asojima! ;-) No, I didn't mistype that - while he's currently trailing by two points, he will make up one of them once Kaio is officially MK, and he also has a makekoshi prediction for Gagamaru (currently 5-7) that would gain him another point on leading Asashosakari. Thanks to a mutual TB guess of 11 the ensuing playoff would go to the brackets where Gagamaru would win it for Asojima on the second bracket. In other words, short of a three-day rally by the burly Georgian I'm doomed. (For completeness - both Achiyama and Vikanohara's picks for Kaio and Gagamaru are identical to Asashosakari's so they're unable to close the gap, and Asojima is the only 8-pointer who differs on both picks.)

MKs for Kaio and Gagamaru would also reduce the tie-breaker to a maximum of 10, so it looks like we've once again overestimated our streakers.

Anyway, up for tomorrow: Gagamaru's first part of the kachikoshi gauntlet, facing Yoshikaze. Among the wannabes it's Tokusegawa's first chance to clinch KK against Kokkai (I doubt that would have been a majority prediction either), and down in sandanme Sakaigawa-beya's Isanokuni can also engineer his addition to the ballot.

Edited by Asashosakari
Asashosakari Dai-yokozuna

Asashosakari

Posted
  • Author
Posted
It ain't over until the fat boy sinks. ;-)

Heh. And to up the pressure: With a Gagamaru MK your return to ozeki will be assured. If he turns it around you'll likely finish with an adjusted 8-7 record two points behind the winner. I didn't repromote Jejima in the exact same scenario last time...

Asashosakari Dai-yokozuna

Asashosakari

Posted
  • Author
Posted

And that's that, courtesy of Yoshikaze's win against Gagamaru. Congrats again, Asojima! (In jonokuchi...) Meanwhile backup rikishi Isanokuni failed to convert his 3-3 to a kachikoshi, so the tie-breaker range is down to 7-9.

Asashosakari Dai-yokozuna

Asashosakari

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Final results:

Kaio's makekoshi is now official, and the last two backup decisions have also come in - Tokusegawa secured his KK at the expense of Homasho (who has beaten exactly one opponent ranked higher than M9 this basho...), while down in makushita Hidenofuji failed to do so against veteran Shoketsu.

Day 15:

12/12 Decisions, TB 8

Pos

Player

 Pts TB

1

 Asojima

10

11

2

 Asashosakari

10

11

3

 Achiyama

9

14

3

 Mmikasazuma

9

11

3

 Sashohitowa

9

11

3

 Vikanohara

9

12

7

 Gusoyama

8

12

7

 Jejima

8

13

7

 shumitto

8

11

10

 Fay

7

11

10

 Holleshoryu

7

14

12

 Profomisakari

5

12

As mentioned before Asojima takes the yusho on the second bracket via Gagamaru's makekoshi. This is Asojima's second yusho (tying Jejima, winner of the very first two editions), and overall the third time he has collected the most points. Asashosakari scores the most points for the second time in his career for his second yusho-doten.

The severely shortened ballot for Aki basho:

Edited by Asashosakari
Asashosakari Dai-yokozuna

Asashosakari

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Scores for banzuke purposes:

Asojima 11 (10+top)

Asashosakari 11 (10+top)

Achiyama 9

Mmikasazuma 9

Sashohitowa 9

Vikanohara 9

Gusoyama 8

Jejima 8

shumitto 8

Fay 7

Holleshoryu 7

Profomisakari 5

Total: 101 / 12 = 8.42 ---> -1 win

Asojima of course immediately returns to the ozeki rank with his yusho.

Banzuke for Aki 2010:

Asojima (S2e, 10-5 Y)	   O   ---
Asashosakari (M1e, 10-5 D)  S1  Sashohitowa (K2e, 8-7)
---						 S2  Vikanohara (K2w, 8-7)
Mmikasazuma (M2w, 8-7)	  K   Achiyama (M3e, 8-7)
Jejima (S1e, 7-8)		   M1  ryafuji (M1w, kosho)
Gusoyama (K1w, 7-8)		 M2  Fay (S1w, 6-9)
shumitto (NR, 7-8)		  M3  Holleshoryu (M2e, 6-9)
Profomisakari (K1e, 4-11)   M4  ---

Edited by Asashosakari

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