Next Ozeki after Baruto

[Asashosakari]

True, but it's not history that counts here, because the fact is that all those foreigners ARE there now. And not all Japanese deshi come in with physical disadvantages of course as you see Yoshikaze, Sakaizawa and Yamamotoyama in the new list of course.

I was talking about the 15- and 18-year-old shindeshi. As mentioned in my response to Treblemaker, IMHO the collegiate starters - and also very old foreigners like Aran and Aoiyama - simply can't be evaluated (positively) by their speed of promotion at all.

... but the fact simply is that most of the rikishi reaching the Ozeki rank in the last years are strong, fast rising foreign rikishi and we haven't seen a single case yet, where one of those is overtaken by a slow-rising, late-blooming rikishi (foreign or Japanese).

And for about the last five years of the 1990s it seemed like almost everybody going straight to the top came out of the collegiate ranks, and look where we're at now - none of them even manage to go past komusubi. There was the Ake/Maru duo of course, but the really comprehensive domination by fast-rising foreign rikishi has been a fact for only about five years as well. I think it's too early to write off the current generation, because the potential late bloomers really aren't that old yet to have gone through their potential late blooming. Would Kakuryu count as a late bloomer for you if he makes it? (BTW, you had him listed with 19 basho to makuuchi, it's 29.) He wouldn't for me, but my cutoff rule is of course more permissive than yours.

And to simply apply the apparent standards of the current generation going forward is also an iffy proposition. We're only now seeing shindeshi prospects for whom that foreigner domination of ozumo has been a fact of life, so to speak, and who may be coming in with a different mindset than those who were kind of caught by surprise by it. (When Kisenosato made his debut, there were only two foreigners in sanyaku, an aging Maru and not-yet-ozeki Asashoryu.) That different mindset could manifest itself in Japanese deshi starting to set speed records as well, but it could also mean that talented newcomers already know they'll simply have to work longer and harder and we'll be seeing a slew of alleged late bloomers become successful instead of what we seem to be getting with the current generation, a bunch of guys who shot up relatively quickly (though not record-setting) and then fizzled out right below the top.

Also, let's not forget that rikishi don't exist in a vacuum. The generational change among shishos is still gathering steam - there are quite a number of prominent stables who will come under much younger ownership in the next 3 to 4 years in addition to the ones that already have (Kataonami, Tokitsukaze, Azumazeki among them), and what effect that will have on how future careers are shaped is anybody's guess.

[Flohru]

True, but it's not history that counts here, because the fact is that all those foreigners ARE there now. And not all Japanese deshi come in with physical disadvantages of course as you see Yoshikaze, Sakaizawa and Yamamotoyama in the new list of course.

I was talking about the 15- and 18-year-old shindeshi. As mentioned in my response to Treblemaker, IMHO the collegiate starters - and also very old foreigners like Aran and Aoiyama - simply can't be evaluated (positively) by their speed of promotion at all.

Well they can be, but in a different way: if they don't rise to Makuuchi in 11-14 basho and manage to succeed in upper Makuuchi (like Osh or Baruto) immediately they will never make it to Ozeki. No much chance for improving or late-blooming - at least we haven't seen an example of it, but Tokitenku hasn't retired yet of course. :)

... but the fact simply is that most of the rikishi reaching the Ozeki rank in the last years are strong, fast rising foreign rikishi and we haven't seen a single case yet, where one of those is overtaken by a slow-rising, late-blooming rikishi (foreign or Japanese).

And for about the last five years of the 1990s it seemed like almost everybody going straight to the top came out of the collegiate ranks, and look where we're at now - none of them even manage to go past komusubi. There was the Ake/Maru duo of course, but the really comprehensive domination by fast-rising foreign rikishi has been a fact for only about five years as well. I think it's too early to write off the current generation, because the potential late bloomers really aren't that old yet to have gone through their potential late blooming. Would Kakuryu count as a late bloomer for you if he makes it? (BTW, you had him listed with 19 basho to makuuchi, it's 29.) He wouldn't for me, but my cutoff rule is of course more permissive than yours.

Well I'm not writing off anybody of the current generation (remember, we quite agreed initially in our Ozeki chance numbers) and my list actually shows that most of the Ozeki prospects mentioned in that thread were rising to Makuuchi fast enough in relation to the age they joined Ozumo to be easily considered Ozeki prospects according to that indicator (Gagamaru und Okinoumi being the exceptions). As for Kakuryu (thanks for pointing out the typo): he is borderline with 29 basho to Makuuchi, but then he entered quite young and was extremly undersized in the beginning (weighing just 80 kg, plus growing 5-7 centimeters in the first years), so I wouldn't exactly consider him a late-bloomer if he makes it. After all he was 21 when arriving in Makuuchi, which isn't too far-off from the age average of the last 17 Ozeki at that point.

And to simply apply the apparent standards of the current generation going forward is also an iffy proposition. We're only now seeing shindeshi prospects for whom that foreigner domination of ozumo has been a fact of life, so to speak, and who may be coming in with a different mindset than those who were kind of caught by surprise by it.

I don't think the mass of stronger foreigners nowadays in that context is much a question/problem of mental attitude but rather of talent. You either have it (and show it immediately) or you will never reach Ozeki (but might make it as a late-bloomer to Sekitori, Makuuchi or Sanyaku) - that counts for foreigners as well as Japanese. Of course those indicators might prove wrong, but my prediction is that we will not see any Ozeki ever again, who was not under 22 when reaching Makuuchi OR got there in less than 12-14 basho.

Edited April 18, 2010 by Flohru

[Asashosakari]

Well they can be, but in a different way: if they don't rise to Makuuchi in 11-14 basho and manage to succeed in upper Makuuchi (like Osh or Baruto) immediately they will never make it to Ozeki. No much chance for improving or late-blooming - at least we haven't seen an example of it, but Tokitenku hasn't retired yet of course. :)

Right, that's why I added the "positively". Of course it's always possible to invert speed or age-based rules, e.g. somebody who started at 15 or 18 and hasn't seen makushita yet when he turns 23 is extremely unlikely to reach juryo, and so on. The positive versions, on the other hand, generally only allow for some very rough filtering even when they're chosen well - something narrow like your initial "10-16 basho for 18-year-olds" is likely to miss some who eventually do make it, while the more generous rules of thumbs I prefer obviously end up including a bunch who don't make it, and the "sweet spot" in between tends to be very non-obvious. I do find the latter more interesting, because something that only tells you about the can't-miss guys usually isn't very useful, or at least doesn't tell you anything that common sense doesn't already.

And in the case of collegiate starters, my argument pretty much boils down to "there is no positive rule at all that will separate the wheat from the chaff", at least if the goal is to spot future ozeki and yokozuna. (Naturally one could devise something like "speed to first double-digit record in the joijin" which may actually work, but that would kick in too late to be of much use.) Of course, the last few years worth of collegiate debutants may indicate that nobody coming up that way will have the necessary base talent and development time remaining anyway, so perhaps it's not a question worth worrying about in the first place...

I don't think the mass of stronger foreigners nowadays in that context is much a question/problem of mental attitude but rather of talent. You either have it (and show it immediately) or you will never reach Ozeki (but might make it as a late-bloomer to Sekitori, Makuuchi or Sanyaku) - that counts for foreigners as well as Japanese. Of course those indicators might prove wrong, but my prediction is that we will not see any Ozeki ever again, who was not under 22 when reaching Makuuchi OR got there in less than 12-14 basho.

Careful, I tend to have a long memory for statements like that. ;-) It's quite possible though...I'd prefer to be wary of your "you either have it or you don't" statement simply because I'd like to maintain some optimism that there's more than one path to the top, but given the current environment you're quite possibly on the mark. The youth amateur circuit appears to be just too well-developed nowadays - for current Japanese deshi it seems to be extremely difficult to develop big-time prospect status without having done years of competitive sumo in their school days already. Of course, perhaps that's also an indication that the current generation of ozumo coaches hasn't been as good as their predecessors... (Either way, I'll keep rooting for guys like Okinoumi to break the mold.) Still, as mentioned I wouldn't be surprised to see some subtle shifts over the next decade...nothing extreme like turning a makuuchi debut age of 24 into ozeki viability, but age 21 or 22 becoming the norm rather than the exception for (Japanese) future ozeki wouldn't shock me.

Edit: Of course I will gloat mercilessly in case I actually end up being right about Okinoumi.

Edited April 19, 2010 by Asashosakari