Next Ozeki after Baruto

[Yaochoyama]

I'll add my picks to the pile:

65% Kisenosato

35% Tochinoshin

30% Tochiozan

25% Kakuryu, Goeido

15% Kotoshogiku

5% Toyonoshima

1% Aminishiki

0.5% Homasho

[Barang]

YMY would be my favourite japanese Ozeki candinate. After all he is only full size japanese sekitori and in that position he would rise popularity of sumo in Japan.

[ryafuji]

YMY would be my favourite japanese Ozeki candinate. After all he is only full size japanese sekitori and in that position he would rise popularity of sumo in Japan.

Well let's take things one step at a time. He has to get back into makuuchi first - no easy feat considering his current form.

[Treblemaker]

YMY would be my favourite japanese Ozeki candinate. After all he is only full size japanese sekitori and in that position he would rise popularity of sumo in Japan.

He might as well be the only full size Japanese car sekitori.

He's in the process of eating his way out of Juryo and into Makushita...

As I said in another thread, pretty soon you're likely to see a match between YMY and Orora coming to a titanium-reinforced dohyo near you.

[Kotoviki]

As I said in another thread, pretty soon you're likely to see a match between YMY and Orora coming to a titanium-reinforced dohyo near you.

and that will be the day of the next BIG earthquake in kanto region as soon as they hit the ground!!!

[Harry]

I'm sure it has been asked before but sadly my search and query abilities seem to be lacking. Will Yamamotoyama vs. Orora be the heaviest torikumi ever?

[XiaoTan]

No idea - but when all Hawaiian's were active I would have thought they should have topped the scale.

[yorikiried by fate]

No idea - but when all Hawaiian's were active I would have thought they should have topped the scale.

Natsu 1995: Akebono (~224) vs. Konishiki (~273) -> ~500 kg

Both Orora and YMY are listed as (slightly) above 250, so it would be a close call.

:-(

[ryafuji]

Natsu 1995: Akebono (~224) vs. Konishiki (~273) -> ~500 kg

Both Orora and YMY are listed as (slightly) above 250, so it would be a close call.

:-(

Akebono and Konishiki also met in Aki 1997 when (presumably) both were even heavier.

[Treblemaker]

Still, it would make for an interesting match, if only visually... Both Orora and YMY are about 6'4" and run approx 550+ lbs each.

They're not small men. Not much room up there for the gyoji-referee.

[Asameshimae]

Kakuryu

Kisenosato

Kokoshogiku

Goeido

Homasho

Tochinoshin

Aminishiki

I think the obvious next candidate is Gagamaru. I will change my mind I am sure after he starts banging his head against the Maegashira wall, but for now it is easier to imagine him than any of the candidates above. Regardless, it does seem like it's time to get the Lady Gaga jokes ready. I wonder if anyone mentioned to her when she was in Japan that there was an up and coming wrestler who started using the name Gaga around the same time she did. Crap, went off topic again didn't I?....

[Flohru]

Kakuryu

Kisenosato

Kokoshogiku

Goeido

Homasho

Tochinoshin

Aminishiki

I think the obvious next candidate is Gagamaru.

Why would he? Just because of one impressive Juryo Basho? It took Gagamaru 4 years to become sekitori and he isn't that young any more. Hell, Tochiozan, who is missing on your list, is even younger than him. IMHO Gagamaru will be the next Kokkai at best.

[Raishu]

Why would he? Just because of one impressive Juryo Basho? It took Gagamaru 4 years to become sekitori and he isn't that young any more. Hell, Tochiozan, who is missing on your list, is even younger than him. IMHO Gagamaru will be the next Kokkai at best.

I also think Gagamaru shouldn't be regarded as a potential ozeki canidiate just because he is doing well in Juryo.

But one question: How do you define youth/being young?

Do you implicate that a 23 year old newcomer is already too old to make it to Ozeki / to improve to a higher level?

Maybe I'm just getting you wrong here.

[Flohru]

Why would he? Just because of one impressive Juryo Basho? It took Gagamaru 4 years to become sekitori and he isn't that young any more. Hell, Tochiozan, who is missing on your list, is even younger than him. IMHO Gagamaru will be the next Kokkai at best.

I also think Gagamaru shouldn't be regarded as a potential ozeki canidiate just because he is doing well in Juryo.

But one question: How do you define youth/being young?

Do you implicate that a 23 year old newcomer is already too old to make it to Ozeki / to improve to a higher level?

Maybe I'm just getting you wrong here.

No, of course 23 is not at all too old for making it to Ozeki, the fact rather is that Gagamaru still is in Juryo with 23 meaning there isn't too much time left for him to improve considerably. IMHO if he was a real Ozeki prospect he should be in upper Makuuchi for some time already by now.

And as I just had some minutes: here is a list showing you the age of some later Ozeki at their first Makuuchi basho:

Baruto: 21

Harumafuji: 20

Kotomitsuki: 24 (entered Ozumo with nearly 23)

Hakuho: 19

Kotooshu: 21

Tochiazuma: 19

Asashoryu: 20

Musoyama: 21

Kaio: 20

Miyabiyama: 21

Takanonami: 20

Dejima: 22 (entered with 21)

Chiyotaikai: 21

Musashimaru: 20

Wakanohana: 19

Takanohana: 17

Akebono: 21

Of course some of those were younger than Gagamaru when they entered Ozumo but then some were actually older (Kotooshu, Baruto). If you exclude all the former college rikishi the average is actually just below 20. In short: one would expect an 18-year old entering Ozumo the regular way to be in Makuuchi at about 20 (or in 10-16 Basho, Gaga stands at 26). For the sake of completeness here is the list of the other mentioned Ozeki prospects, draw your own conclussion out of it:

Kisenosato: 18

Kakuryu: 21

Tochiozan: 19

Goeido: 21

Kotoshogiku: 20

Toyonoshima: 21

Aminishiki: 21

Homasho: 25 (entered with nearly 23)

[Asashosakari]

Of course some of those were younger than Gagamaru when they entered Ozumo but then some were actually older (Kotooshu, Baruto). If you exclude all the former college rikishi the average is actually just below 20. In short: one would expect an 18-year old entering Ozumo the regular way to be in Makuuchi at about 20 (or in 10-16 Basho ...

I think that's a bit extreme. Even Kotooshu took 10 basho (plus maezumo, so 11 in Kyokai counting), and that's the all-time record. If the Ms60 tsukedashi start still existed, I'd say a good rule of thumb for "potential future ozeki" advancement would be 5 years for middle schoolers (~age 20 at makuuchi debut), 3 years for high schoolers (~21) and 1 year for collegiates (~23). I guess make it 2 years for collegiate rikishi nowadays, unless starting at Ms15 or Ms10.

Caveat: That presumes that they're arriving in makuuchi as a somewhat well-rounded rikishi, e.g. while high-schooler Aminishiki did reach makuuchi at age 21 (after 21 basho), he was pretty much all technique and no body, and that just doesn't work even if the numbers look good.

Did I bring up my irrational optimism about Okinoumi in this thread yet? If not, consider it done. :)

[yorikiried by fate]

Natsu 1995: Akebono (~224) vs. Konishiki (~273) -> ~500 kg

Both Orora and YMY are listed as (slightly) above 250, so it would be a close call.

:-)

Akebono and Konishiki also met in Aki 1997 when (presumably) both were even heavier.

Not if you go by the figures in the database.

[Asameshimae]

Sorry, I didn't mean to imply there is logical thinking behind my pick. Watching so many makuuchi wrestlers who never seem to get anywhere after all the hype, in frustration I look lower to someone who hasn't hit the inevitable mid Maegashira doldrums. I thought about picking another Eastern European, Aoiyama, a guy with definite potential (I'd like to pick a Japanese but there just aren't enough up to snuff) but his name doesn't sound like Lady Gaga's, who's existence I only discovered about a month ago (yes, I do live under a rock, but I come out from time to time), so I figured I'd go with him.

[tarako]

I keep hoping that Aminishiki will rally :)

[Flohru]

Of course some of those were younger than Gagamaru when they entered Ozumo but then some were actually older (Kotooshu, Baruto). If you exclude all the former college rikishi the average is actually just below 20. In short: one would expect an 18-year old entering Ozumo the regular way to be in Makuuchi at about 20 (or in 10-16 Basho ...

I think that's a bit extreme. Even Kotooshu took 10 basho (plus maezumo, so 11 in Kyokai counting), and that's the all-time record. If the Ms60 tsukedashi start still existed, I'd say a good rule of thumb for "potential future ozeki" advancement would be 5 years for middle schoolers (~age 20 at makuuchi debut), 3 years for high schoolers (~21) and 1 year for collegiates (~23). I guess make it 2 years for collegiate rikishi nowadays, unless starting at Ms15 or Ms10.

Good points, but I still don't think about 10-16 basho to Makuuchi is too extreme as a guideline for an 18-year old (especially if it is a NON-high schooler or shall we just say foreigner) entering Ozumo, who wants to become Ozeki. Let's have a look:

Baruto: entered with 19 => 11 basho to Makuuchi (excluding maezumo)

Harumafuji: 16 => 22 basho

Hakuho: 16 => 18 basho

Kotooshu: 19 => 10 basho

Asashoryu: 18 => 11 basho

Musashimaru: 18 => 12 basho

Akebono: 18 => 14 basho

---

(Kisenosato: 15 => 15 basho)

(Tochinoshin: 18 => 12 basho)

(Goeido: 19 => 15 basho)

(Kakuryu: 16 => 29 basho)

(Tochiozan: 17 => 12 basho)

(Kotoshogiku: 18 => 17 basho)

(Toyonoshima: 18 => 15 basho)

(Aminishiki: 18 => 21 basho)

(Homasho: 23 => 12 basho)

(Gagamaru: 18 => 26 basho)

(Okinoumi: 19 => 30 basho)

Of course all those numbers might prove worthless in reality, but to me they are at least clear indicators that Gagamaru (and Okinoumi), who had moreover quite good physical conditions when joining Ozumo, needed way to long to reach Makuuchi to be considered Ozeki prospects...

Late Edit: Typo corrected

Edited April 19, 2010 by Flohru

[Sashohitowa]

What happened with Kyokushuho's band wagon, I wonder. Not even a honorable mention in that thread...?

[Randomitsuki]

Of course all those numbers might prove worthless in reality, but to me they are at least clear indicators that Gagamaru (and Okinoumi), who had moreover quite good physical conditions when joining Ozumo, needed way to long to reach Makuuchi to be considered Ozeki prospects...

I've been checking my talent database and found out that Gagamaru is in the same age cohort as Akebono (later Yokozuna), Takamiyama (later Sekiwake), Kyokushuzan (later Sekiwake), and Sentoryu (later M12). If we take a look at where those rikishi were when they had the same level of experience as Gagamaru now, we see the following results: Akebono was Ozeki, Takamiyama was M2, Kyokushuzan was M15, and Sentoryu was Ms55.

[Treblemaker]

After looking at Flohru's post, I hadn't realized just how much Homasho had managed to hide under the radar... Late starter, only 12 basho.. I still think he's the Dark Horse who just might (emphasis on might) be the one who has a couple of break-out tournaments.. but there are too many "ifs"..

Of all these names:

(Kisenosato: 15 => 15 basho)

(Tochinoshin: 18 => 12 basho)

(Goeido: 19 => 15 basho)

(Kakuryu: 16 => 19 basho)

(Tochiozan: 17 => 12 basho)

(Kotoshogiku: 18 => 17 basho)

(Toyonoshima: 18 => 15 basho)

(Aminishiki: 18 => 21 basho)

(Homasho: 23 => 12 basho)

(Gagamaru: 18 => 26 basho)

(Okinoumi: 19 => 30 basho)

... you'd think that he'd have the upper hand in terms of experience, maturity, etc... I don't know... None of them seem to instill much hope of hopping that big hurdle... Gaga and Okinoumi have been around for a while, and everyone else has flirted with greatness, only to sink under the pressure.

Shows you what an inexact science this is.

[Asashosakari]

Good points, but I still don't think about 10-16 basho to Makuuchi is too extreme as a guideline for an 18-year old (especially if it is a NON-high schooler or shall we just say foreigner) entering Ozumo, who wants to become Ozeki.

The thing is that the speed record lists have been altered quite dramatically since foreigners started arriving en masse, most of them already fully developed physically. This is what the top 10 looked like when Asasekiryu reached makuuchi:

Kotetsuyama (Itai) 12 basho, maku debut 1980.09

Konishiki, 12, 1984.07

Tochiazuma 12, 1996.01

Asashoryu 12, 2001.01

Asahifuji 13, 1983.03

Takahanada 13, 1990.05

Musashimaru 13, 1991.11

Wakahanada 15, 1990.09

Akebono 15, 1990.09

Masuiyama 19, 1970.03

Nankairyu 19, 1987.11

Asasekiryu 19, 2003.03

Now seven years later it looks like this:

Kotooshu 11, 2004.09

Aran 11, 2008.01

Kotetsuyama

Konishiki

Tochiazuma

Asashoryu

Tokitenku 12, 2004.07

Yoshikaze 12, 2006.01

Baruto 12, 2006.05

Sakaizawa 12, 2008.03

Yamamotoyama 12, 2009.01

In other words, historically it was rather unusual for anybody to arrive in makuuchi in under 20 tournaments (even among the limited number of Japanese deshi who started at age 18+), and the arrival of so many foreigners and older domestic shindeshi has kind of screwed up the standards. Of course the most obvious conclusion one could be tempted to draw is "we'll never see another Japanese ozeki unless he can match those numbers", but I do think that the Japanese deshi generally come in with physical disadvantages compared to same-age foreign deshi and just need some time just to catch up. (It's no coincidence that somebody like Kisenosato who was already built well from the start was able to keep up.)

In addition, one needs to keep in mind that the trend towards older starting ages is still relatively recent; collegiate rikishi have only started appearing in large numbers since the early 1990s, high-schoolers only since the late 1990s*, so especially for the latter group it's still difficult to discern what the "proper standards" to expect should be. I do think 3 years and up is more realistic than less than 3 years.

* In a way, if somebody started their sumo career at 18 years and up prior to the 1990s, it was often the case that he was plucked from a different, non-sumo background, which brings us to:

Of course all those numbers might prove worthless in reality, but to me they are at least clear indicators that Gagamaru (and Okinoumi), who had moreover quite good physical conditions when joining Ozumo, needed way to long to reach Makuuchi to be considered Ozeki prospects...

Okinoumi is kind of a throwback to those times - as far as I understand it, in his youth he only dabbled a bit in the local Oki Island style of sumo wrestling, and when he was discovered for Ozumo by Hakkaku-oyakata at age 19 he'd been working as a fisherman for a couple of years. That type of deshi generally needed some time just to learn sumo, which helps explain why the historical speed records even by older shindeshi are so much less impressive than today's, even though quite a few of them did go on to become ozeki or even yokozuna. By comparison, most prospect-type rikishi who join at older ages nowadays (both foreign and Japanese) have extensive amateur backgrounds so part of the coaching process is already taken care of by the time they join.

[Asashosakari]

After looking at Flohru's post, I hadn't realized just how much Homasho had managed to hide under the radar... Late starter, only 12 basho.. I still think he's the Dark Horse who just might (emphasis on might) be the one who has a couple of break-out tournaments.. but there are too many "ifs"..

Quite the opposite I'd say...along with guys like Sakaizawa and Tokitenku he's more of an indication that speed records are mostly useless to assess the future of those who only started in sumo at age 22. There's really not much of a difference between future greatness and future mediocrity on the way up for those guys.

Homasho's semi-comparable to Okinoumi in that he also spent a while working in odd jobs (construction work in his case IIRC) before being discovered for Ozumo, but besides having started at three years older he also has a significantly different background, having done amateur sumo while in school and for one year at Nihon University. He's had some injury issues (but who doesn't?), but I do think he's an extremely unlikely candidate for a late breakout.

[Flohru]

Good points, but I still don't think about 10-16 basho to Makuuchi is too extreme as a guideline for an 18-year old (especially if it is a NON-high schooler or shall we just say foreigner) entering Ozumo, who wants to become Ozeki.

The thing is that the speed record lists have been altered quite dramatically since foreigners started arriving en masse, most of them already fully developed physically. This is what the top 10 looked like when Asasekiryu reached makuuchi:

Kotetsuyama (Itai) 12 basho, maku debut 1980.09

Konishiki, 12, 1984.07

Tochiazuma 12, 1996.01

Asashoryu 12, 2001.01

Asahifuji 13, 1983.03

Takahanada 13, 1990.05

Musashimaru 13, 1991.11

Wakahanada 15, 1990.09

Akebono 15, 1990.09

Masuiyama 19, 1970.03

Nankairyu 19, 1987.11

Asasekiryu 19, 2003.03

Now seven years later it looks like this:

Kotooshu 11, 2004.09

Aran 11, 2008.01

Kotetsuyama

Konishiki

Tochiazuma

Asashoryu

Tokitenku 12, 2004.07

Yoshikaze 12, 2006.01

Baruto 12, 2006.05

Sakaizawa 12, 2008.03

Yamamotoyama 12, 2009.01

In other words, historically it was rather unusual for anybody to arrive in makuuchi in under 20 tournaments (even among the limited number of Japanese deshi who started at age 18+), and the arrival of so many foreigners and older domestic shindeshi has kind of screwed up the standards. Of course the most obvious conclusion one could be tempted to draw is "we'll never see another Japanese ozeki unless he can match those numbers", but I do think that the Japanese deshi generally come in with physical disadvantages compared to same-age foreign deshi and just need some time just to catch up. (It's no coincidence that somebody like Kisenosato who was already built well from the start was able to keep up.

True, but it's not history that counts here, because the fact is that all those foreigners ARE there now. And not all Japanese deshi come in with physical disadvantages of course as you see Yoshikaze, Sakaizawa and Yamamotoyama in the new list of course. Still: with all the foreigners at the top, IMHO you simply need more talent now than some years back if you want to reach Ozeki (that counts for foreign as well as for Japanese deshi) and I think that the way you are climbing the lower ranks is already a good indicator if you will ever make it to Ozeki.

I don't want to re-start the old, rather fruitless discussion if competition is higher nowadays than 10 or 20 years ago, but the fact simply is that most of the rikishi reaching the Ozeki rank in the last years are strong, fast rising foreign rikishi and we haven't seen a single case yet, where one of those is overtaken by a slow-rising, late-blooming rikishi (foreign or Japanese).