Next Ozeki after Baruto

[Treblemaker]

It's a bit of a surprise... One expected Kise or Goeido, or perhaps one of a bunch of "potential" young stars to beat Baruto to the Ozeki Post. And from recent bashos, even going back more than a year, that well's pretty much dried up. Ain't gonna be another Ozeki promotion for a long time, based on the lack of continued successes.

You know, for somebody who was caught by the suddenness of Baruto's ascent to ozeki, you sound remarkably sure that nothing like that can possibly happen with somebody else. Considering the exact same stuff was written after Ama's promotion only a year ago as well (I'm not saying necessarily by you) - perhaps we all could simply take a step back and admit that predicting the timing of major promotions is almost always a complete crapshoot?

i agree, it only takes 3 basho at sekiwake to do it, and you can get healthy are put together a good run, with Asashoryu gone, there another win per tourney in your pocket, so it is do-able, and like Baruto, can happen somewhat suddenly. and just think if hakuho got hurt for a stretch, it would be wide open, someone like Kotoshogiku has the skill and young on his side, and i really like Goeido can put a good run together....

I agree as well, but this is the sticking point. Up to now, no one's been able to stay at Sekiwake long enough AND put up the numbers needed.

What it might take is for at least two current Ozeki to have particularly bad basho and/or some kind of unexpected issue with Hakuho. Even then, this anomily would not last more than one tournament.

Here's a quick list of possible Ozeki candidates. This perhaps should be in the Polls section. Odds? Opinions? Comments?

Kakuryu

Kisenosato

Kokoshogiku

Goeido

Homasho

Tochinoshin

Aminishiki

[Kintamayama]

Kakuryu

Kisenosato

Kokoshogiku

Goeido

Homasho

Tochinoshin

Aminishiki

I'd add Toyonoshima to that mix.

[Asashosakari]

I'd add Toyonoshima to that mix.

After he started 3-0 in Haru basho Chunichi Shimbun promptly published a profile of him, including comments on his desire to become ozeki. I found that timing a bit too ridiculous so I didn't even bother to mention the article at the time. (And of course...6-9.) But sure, if we're including even Homasho then Toyonoshima has as much of a right to be mentioned.

Personally, I'd say the conventional wisdom is right in this case and the only guys with non-negligible chances to make it within the next couple of years are the three K's and Goeido. Maybe Tochinoshin a bit further out. Homasho, Toyonoshima and Aminishiki aren't anything more than spoilers IMO. (Homasho perhaps not even that, frankly.) But of course the sheer number of candidates and spoilers is the main reason it's been so hard for one of them to break out...in hindsight I think I'm still more surprised that Ama managed to do it than that Baruto did. But all in all - and especially when the ozeki are collectively having an off-basho - it's a veritable juryo division level of parity up there. It's tough to pick up 11 wins when everyone's so close together in skill, let alone do it three times in a row.

But the flipside is, as soon as somebody pulls away, skill-wise, he's a good bet to make it to ozeki quickly because the level of parity means he'll be pulling away from everyone simultaneously, there's no real further progression involved once you've broken away from the pack. (Short of persistent can't-figure-'im-out-isms like Harumafuji's inability to deal with Kotoshogiku, which are normally rare enough to not impede a push for ozeki.)

At this point I honestly don't have a clue who's going to be that breakout candidate, but I do think there's going to be somebody by the end of 2011. I think I'm pulling for Kakuryu. He seems to have the right frame of mind for it - which, yes, currently tends to manifest itself in a strong henka habit in must-win bouts - and once he gets the silly losses under control the way Ama did, he may well be in the best position among the main contenders. That said, I'm struggling with the mental image of "ozeki Kakuryu" just a wee bit, so who knows. If we're going strictly by appearance and on-dohyo impression it's gotta be Kisenosato and later Tochinoshin, and none of the others. (Yeah, "ozeki Goeido" doesn't work for me either, sue me.)

[Randomitsuki]

Personally, I'd say the conventional wisdom is right in this case and the only guys with non-negligible chances to make it within the next couple of years are the three K's and Goeido. Maybe Tochinoshin a bit further out. Homasho, Toyonoshima and Aminishiki aren't anything more than spoilers IMO. (Homasho perhaps not even that, frankly.)

I mostly agree.

50% chance for Kisenosato and Kakuryu.

40% chance for Goeido

30% chance for Kotoshogiku and Tochinoshin.

20% chance for Toyonoshima and Tochiozan (who was not on any of the lists above).

No chance for Aminishiki and Homasho.

These numbers were not derived algorithimically.

[Washuyama]

I would give the Geeku a slightly better chance simply because he doesnt have to face two of the Ozeki. Not that I feel that he's any better than Kisenosato of Kakuryu, just that there's fewer people "definitely better" that he has to face each and every basho.

[Flohru]

Personally, I'd say the conventional wisdom is right in this case and the only guys with non-negligible chances to make it within the next couple of years are the three K's and Goeido. Maybe Tochinoshin a bit further out. Homasho, Toyonoshima and Aminishiki aren't anything more than spoilers IMO. (Homasho perhaps not even that, frankly.)

I mostly agree.

50% chance for Kisenosato and Kakuryu.

40% chance for Goeido

30% chance for Kotoshogiku and Tochinoshin.

20% chance for Toyonoshima and Tochiozan (who was not on any of the lists above).

No chance for Aminishiki and Homasho.

These numbers were not derived algorithimically.

One year ago, I would have agreed with those chance numbers (except maybe Kotoshogiku at 40%), but not anymore.

Goeido had only one KK since then (at M5e), Kakuryu had just two and is on a three basho mk-streak, Kotoshogiku looks pretty strong at times but lacks the constancy he had for a while at the end of 2007/beginning of 2008 (which is a pretty bad sign for someone who wants to become an Ozeki) and Toyonoshima looks more like a good mid-maegashira since receiving that Kaionage.

I'd say:

51% Kisenosato

25% Goeido, Kakuryu, Kotoshogiku, Tochiozan

10% Tochinoshin

0% Aminishiki, Homasho, Toyonoshima

I go with Kise, because while not being able to achieve double-digit kk at the moment he alone shows the constancy that seems to be the first thing you need if you want to start an Ozeki run (look at the records of Haruma, Mitsuki and Baruto prior to their promotions). Plus he is the most experienced out of the mentioned rikishi (except Aminishiki who should not have been mentioned in that context anyway) while still being one of the youngest.

[Jakusotsu]

I'm surprised about the low estimates for Tochinoshin. For me he's the most promising rikishi among those mentioned.

[Fay]

Can't resist :-D

70% for Kakuryu

50% for Goeido

40% for Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku.

10% chance for Tochiozan and Tochinoshin and Toyonoshima

0% chance for Aminishiki and Homasho.

[Treblemaker]

Wow.. Very interesting numbers and opinions - just interesting to note that (Other than Fay dumping 70% of her hard-earned money on Kakuryu) there's no real clear choice, as we stand now.

Don't recall who mentioned it but it's likely that the next Ozeki candidate might still reside at the bottom of the Makuuchi swamp - or in Juryo...

[Asashosakari]

I'm surprised about the low estimates for Tochinoshin.

Probably for the same reason that I'm irrationally dismissing Tochiozan in these discussions...the results just haven't been there yet. But it's odd...from a very similar start (in makuuchi), Tochiozan had fallen quite a bit behind Goeido for a while, but when he's on one of his usual hot streaks Tochiozan's sumo shows far more "ozeki upside" to me than Goeido's ever has. Sure, Goeido sometimes looks very good against ozeki, but the impression for me has often been "wow, that was a bad approach by [insert ozeki here]", not an individually excellent performance by Goeido that simply had to be victorious. (Same goes for Homasho at a lower skill level.) In a way, Goeido's far more the next Wakanosato to me than is Kisenosato.

But anyway, since this started out with the focus being on the near term, both Tochis still have to prove they even belong in the conversation. Long-term is a different matter and the mere fact that they have the intra-stable rivalry with each other might well be helpful.

My personal rear-pulled percentages for somebody to break out by the end of 2011 - not necessarily to finish an ozeki run by then, just to become apparent as "the guy":

Kisenosato 40%

Kakuryu, Kotoshogiku 25%

Goeido 20%

Tochinoshin, Tochiozan 10%

Aminishiki, Homasho, Toyonoshima 0%

1.3 new ozeki for the next two years, sounds about right. :-D Looks like I'm mostly in agreement with Flohru from among the other guesses.

[Blue_Wolf]

Kisenosato 60%

Kakuryu 40%

Tochinoshin 30%

[Fay]

(Other than Fay dumping 70% of her hard-earned money on Kakuryu)

hard earned ... that's right, hope he is worth it ...

But I'm glad enough that some nowadays count on Kakuryu at all. I can remember times when members of this forum called me a bit daft even think of such a possibility :-D

[Flohru]

I'm surprised about the low estimates for Tochinoshin. For me he's the most promising rikishi among those mentioned.

Okay, he's still quite young (though only about one year younger than Kise...), but as Asashosakari indicated, the facts are just not that promising (yet):

His highest KK until now came from M5w while he is 12-33 when being ranked in joijin having yet to win more than 5 bouts in a joijin-basho,

He's 3-15 against Yokozuna/Ozeki,

He is 2-10 against the other most promising Ozeki candidates Kise, Kakuryu, Kotoshogiku and Goeido plus just promoted Baruto.

If no miracle (=dramatic improvement) happens, I don't see him achieving a double-digit kk, let alone 33 bouts in three basho, against that opposition.

[HenryK]

My odds:

40% for Kakuryu, Tochinoshin

25% for Kisenosato, Goeido, Kotoshogiku, Tochiozan, Toyonoshima

[Kintamayama]

Maybe it would be a good idea (or great idea, even) to move the next Ozeki discussion to a home of its own as it will surely be missed in a future search...

[Kintamayama]

Kakuryu

Kisenosato

Kokoshogiku

Goeido

Homasho

Tochinoshin

Aminishiki

I'd add Toyonoshima to that mix.

Sorry-after doing some math, googling, deep meditation and a lot of thinking these last few days, I would like to alter my guess: Tochiouzan, in 8 bashos max.

[yorikiried by fate]

Kakuryu

Kisenosato

Kokoshogiku

Goeido

Homasho

Tochinoshin

Aminishiki

I'd add Toyonoshima to that mix.

Sorry-after doing some math, googling, deep meditation and a lot of thinking these last few days, I would like to alter my guess: Tochiouzan, in 8 bashos max.

It's always easy to pretend afterwards, but when the first list of candidates with percentage values was posted further up, I instantly thought "Tochiozan is missing, but he is the most likely candidate." Maybe in two or three years, really.

[Sashohitowa]

Kakuryu

Kisenosato

Kokoshogiku

Goeido

Homasho

Tochinoshin

Aminishiki

I'd add Toyonoshima to that mix.

Sorry-after doing some math, googling, deep meditation and a lot of thinking these last few days, I would like to alter my guess: Tochiouzan, in 8 bashos max.

I am still surprised that you agree for the presence of Kisenosato in that list. I remember you had a position "not in a million years" on him some time ago. And now when the time started showing you had a point here, you seem to have suddenly found something in him.. What changed?

Oh, and by the way - the next Ozeki will be either Tochinoshin or Aoiyama, imho. (Nodding yes...)

Edited April 9, 2010 by Sashohitowa

[Jejima]

Sorry-after doing some math, googling, deep meditation and a lot of thinking these last few days, I would like to alter my guess: Tochiouzan, in 8 bashos max.

How about the Miyabiflobmonster? Have you given up on his return?

[Harry]

Sorry-after doing some math, googling, deep meditation and a lot of thinking these last few days, I would like to alter my guess: Tochiouzan, in 8 bashos max.

How about the Miyabiflobmonster? Have you given up on his return?

I've pretty much given up but I wish he would put a few together and return. Of course now there are 5 ozeki, so he could get a raw deal AGAIN... because demoted ozeki need to really knock it out of the park. Sorry, I'm a broken record on this one, I know.

[Kintamayama]

I am still surprised that you agree for the presence of Kisenosato in that list. I remember you had a position "not in a million years" on him some time ago. And now when the time started showing you had a point here, you seem to have suddenly found something in him.. What changed?

It wasn't my list- I just thought if THAT'S the list, you may as well add Toyonoshima.

I still think Kisenosato (and Tochinoshin and Aminishiki and Kakuryuu) will never make it.

[Kintamayama]

Sorry-after doing some math, googling, deep meditation and a lot of thinking these last few days, I would like to alter my guess: Tochiouzan, in 8 bashos max.

How about the Miyabiflobmonster? Have you given up on his return?

No, Miyabiyama is a given- no need for me to mention him time and again. He's starting his run right about..

NOW!!

[Pippooshu]

Only one name, for the future: Goeido. He is various and tacticaly intelligent. Not regular, now, but I think he is a jewel. (Nodding yes...)

Infact someone is too old or not regular (Aminishiki) someone is simply not regular (Kisenosato) and others are destabilzated from injuries (Toyonoshima). I wanna see Tochiozan again but I think he isn't ready.

Edited April 9, 2010 by Pippooshu

[Gusoyama]

No new Ozeki until 2013. Not sure who it will be at this juncture, but no one in Makuuchi or Juryo currently, thats for sure.

[Kotoviki]

Oh, and by the way - the next Ozeki will be either Tochinoshin or Aoiyama, imho. (Laughing...)

Aoiyama!!!! I am with you on this one!!!! (Nodding yes...)