Kaisei...

[Kaiomitsuki]

Do you believe that Kaisei can be sekitori in may ?

[Asashosakari]

Do you believe that Kaisei can be sekitori in may ?

Highly doubtful. Barring a precedent-shattering decision the last juryo spot will go to Hochiyama (who really should go 'round Oguruma-beya and say thank you to Hoshikaze).

Edited March 28, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Kaiomitsuki]

Do you believe that Kaisei can be sekitori in may ?

Highly doubtful. Barring a precedent-shattering decision the last juryo spot will go to Hochiyama (who really should go 'round Oguruma-beya and say thank you to Hoshikaze).

What do you think about the Natsu 2004 with Kotoshogiku and Kotonomine at the same position in the Banzuke with the same record (5-2 as Kaisei and 4-3 as Hochiyama) ?

Natsu 2004

http://sumodb.sumogames.com/Banzuke.aspx?b...amp;shusshin=-1

2 months later, Kotoshogiku was higher than Kotonomine and was in Juryo !

http://sumodb.sumogames.com/Banzuke.aspx?b...amp;shusshin=-1

Edited March 28, 2010 by Kaiomitsuki

[Sokkenaiyama]

I remember a similar discussion with Asashosakari a while ago, IIRC about Matsutani and why his 6-1 wasn't better than some other higher ranking guy's 4-3 (I think it was Daido). Well, in theory, the 4-3 is better ONLY if promotion is at stake, i.e. they have to decide which one goes to Juryo and which one doesn't. If both go up or both stay in makushita, the higher record usually ends up higher, if only one gets promoted, the 4-3 is usually favored. It's counterintuitive from a strictly mathematical point of view, but precedents seem to support this.

[Asashosakari]

All similar cases since 1989 (5 spot difference, 4-3 not at Ms1e, 5-2 at Ms5w or higher) in which only one rikishi was promoted to juryo:

1990.09:

Ms1w Daizen 4-3 -> J13w

Ms4e Murata 5-2 -> Ms1e

1990.11:

Ms3e Tochitenko 4-3 -> J13w

Ms5w Nagao 5-2 -> Ms1e

1992.03:

Ms2e Kotobeppu 4-3 -> J13w

Ms4w Tochinofuji 5-2 -> Ms1e

1992.07:

Ms1w Hoshitango 4-3 -> J12e

Ms4e Hoshiandesu 5-2 -> Ms1e (I had no idea they once battled for the same promotion)

1993.11:

Ms2e Hoshitango 4-3 -> J13w

Ms4w Ryudo 5-2 -> Ms1e

1994.01:

Ms2e Daiden 4-3 -> J13w

Ms4w Tochinofuji 5-2 -> Ms1e (again!)

1997.05:

Ms2e Saigo 4-3 -> J13e

Ms4w Kanechika 5-2 -> Ms1e

1998.01:

Ms2w Oikari 4-3 -> J13w

Ms5e Yutakafuji 5-2 -> Ms2e

2007.03:

Ms1w Chiyohakuho 4-3 -> J14e

Ms4e Ichihara 5-2 -> Ms2w

2007.05:

Ms2e Takamifuji 4-3 -> J14e

Ms4w Kotokasuga 5-2 -> Ms1e

2008.05:

Ms1w Tosayutaka 4-3 -> J14w

Ms4e Mori 5-2 -> Ms1e

2009.03:

Ms1w Sagatsukasa 4-1-2 -> J14w

Ms4e Yoshiazuma 5-2 -> Ms1e

There hasn't been a case exactly like the current one in a while (the recent ones all had the rikishi pair higher up), but I still expect that the pattern will hold. Anyway, my estimate is that Kaisei goes to Ms2e, unless Kaiho retires. The senshuraku win probably didn't add much to his upward movement; with a loss he would have landed behind Ms5e Tsurugidake 4-3 and maybe behind Ms8e Ryuho 5-2. Still, maybe it's the difference between needing 4-3 or needing 5-2 next basho, so he still did well by winning today.

[ilovesumo]

Kaiho won't retire.

[Iginishiki]

Apparently it seems, that when it comes to Makushita promotions, the powers that be leave the normal rules of Makushita elevator at home and treat the very upper Makushita ranks more as if they were an extension of lower Juryo, IMHO.

Kind regards,

Iginishiki

P.S. So, "the illegitimate son of Leonid Brezhnev" ;) will go on and try to fight back next time :)

[Asashosakari]

Apparently it seems, that when it comes to Makushita promotions, the powers that be leave the normal rules of Makushita elevator at home and treat the very upper Makushita ranks more as if they were an extension of lower Juryo, IMHO.

Well, they have to - the glass ceiling effect between the two divisions pretty much requires it; it's much easier to fall down from the high makushita ranks than it is to move up to juryo. (Just compare the relative effects of a 7-8 and a 3-4.)

At any rate, in my impression there's sort of a hidden demarcation line between Ms5 and Ms6, e.g. if you have Ms5w 4-3 and Ms8w 5-2, the 4-3 rikishi tends to stay in front, whereas if it's Ms6e 4-3 and Ms9e 5-2 (both rikishi on the same side of the divide), the 5-2 tends to move ahead. That's kind of arbitrary, of course, but I think the logic is - and this can be extrapolated to the Ms3e/Ms5w issue above - that if you've reached the higher rank, you must have had the greater amount of success in the recent past (last one or two basho), so you'll get a bit of credit for that in case you find yourself in a close-run promotion decision. I think that makes sense, considering how small the upwards movements often are up there thanks to the glass ceiling.

[Kotoviki]

Do you believe that Kaisei can be sekitori in may ?

How about July? (On the banzuke...)

[Kotoviki]

Kaiho won't retire.

Are you so sure? On news they talked about what he does if he is in Makushita.... suddenly.