New Bulgarian rikishi in Tagonoura beya

[Asojima]

Proper comparisons for Aoiyama start with the flood of (mostly mediocre) 22-year-old collegiate rikishi who have joined in the last 10 years, not a dai-yokozuna.

A good starting point would be my adoptee, Homarefuji. He started just before his 23rd birthday with some solid collegiate experience. He kicked butt with 2 yushos and an excellent 24-4 record in his first 4 bashos. He then found himself in mid makushita where he caught up with others who had gained the experience level that he started out with, and he has plateaued at essentially that level for the last 10 bashos. It is common for an older, experienced rikishi to shine during his first few bashos against very young rookies and perennial wannabes. The real test is what he does when he reaches his level of initial competence. Does he continue to improve or become one of the perennial wannabes?

Stay tuned for Aoiyama. It is now showtime.

Edited May 23, 2010 by Asojima

[Asashosakari]

Speaking of Homarefuji: One thing to keep in mind about Aoiyama's yusho from low makushita last basho is that he faced just about the lowest-ranked opponent possible with the yusho on the line. (And Homarefuji is not somebody who was particularly under-ranked at Ms36.) Most rikishi who win a yusho from below Ms40 have to contend their final bout against a rikishi from significantly higher on the banzuke so it's a much bigger test of their abilities. Aoiyama's 7-0 was effectively only a bit better than a 6-1, which isn't nearly as rare, especially from 23-year-olds. (Conversely, Takanohana...)

It's going to be interesting at which level Aoiyama can pick up his next KK.

Edited May 23, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Achiyama]

What does age have to do with this case? The talent is a talent nevertheless the age. Many Japanese kids become sumo wrestlers at age 16, while it's not the same case for foreigners. One of the obstacles for foreigners is the limit of 1 (one) foreign born rikishi per heya.

Well, a quick rise to juryo is optional for a future yokozuna at age 16 as at this age physical development isn't finished (just look at the body changes of Takanohana or Hakuho, just impossible for Aoiyama). But it's an absolute must for a 23 years old. Show me a few rikishi who did exceptionally well after entering Ozumo at 22 years and not going to juryo fast.

O.k. I'll try to do that. By the way, thank you Asojima for your example of Hamarefuji. To be frank it was quite a digging I did as most rikishi (especially the Japanese) started at age 15-16. But here are few examples I found:

1.) Daido (started at age 23) - Started with 2 Zensho Yusho but took him 24 basho in Makushita till he got to Juryo.

2.) Kimurayama (started at age 23) - His first 5 basho were 6-1, then he needed 18 basho in Makushita.

3.) Matsutani (started at age 22) - Started with 5-2, 7-0 Zensho Yusho, 5-2, 6-1, then he needed 19 basho in Makushita.

4.) Sagatsukasa (started at age 23) - started with 5-2, 6-1, 6-1, 6-1, and then he needed 16 basho in Makushita.

5.) Tokushinko (started at age 23) - his first 6 basho he had twice 5-2, and four times 6-1, then he needed 9 basho in Makushita.

And at last, one example of a rikishi who entered at Makushita level - Kanbayashi (started at age 23) and he needed 29 basho in Makushita to get to Juryo.

Edited May 23, 2010 by Achiyama

[Asashosakari]

But here are few examples I found ...

Kimurayama is probably the prototypical example of the type of career a 23-year-old can realistically hope for if he struggles to reach juryo quickly.

FWIW, some recent comparable rikishi at the upper end of the career spectrum: Tokitenku, Tosayutaka, Sakaizawa, Homasho - Homasho is IMHO perhaps the most comparable as he also had less sumo experience than the average university rikishi, while having similar physical tools. Still, none of them have turned out to be anywhere close to ozeki quality, which just illustrates how much development time a rikishi gives up by starting at age 22 instead of 15 or 18.

For balance, a guy who also started very strong but got stuck in high makushita and is currently going absolutely nowhere: Minami. In a way also this basho's sandanme winner Maeta, but his results already started to decline before he reached makushita. And Daishoma (already retired) comes to mind as well, as does the similarly-named Daishodai (who did eventually reach juryo and almost makuuchi).

That said, you don't just fluke a 7-0 (or even a 6-1) in your makushita debut - Aoiyama will probably be in makuuchi sooner or later. But...it's a tough life in high makushita. Everyone's just as motivated as Aoiyama is, and everybody wants to get (back) to juryo badly.

[Kintamayama]

In a way also this basho's sandanme winner Maeta, but his results already started to decline before he reached makushita. dly.

Nit- Makushita winner.

[Asashosakari]

In a way also this basho's sandanme winner Maeta, but his results already started to decline before he reached makushita. dly.

Nit- Makushita winner.

Bah, too many fat guys winning yusho this time around...got him mixed up with Takunishiki (not the first time, I think).

[Kintamayama]

Since I am in anti-statistic mode today, I will say this, again: You can never know. Anyone can suddenly run, and anyone can suddenly falter. I have one word for the stattos and all power rankings (whom I do respect..) : CHIYONOFUJI. He may be an anomaly, but he be he, and there were probably others in the past and others in the making. I say live for today and let the future surprise us all. Statistical stakes to the freezer!! Gut stakes in the open! Stakes is the second part of the word mistakes!!

Thank you.

[Doitsuyama]

Since I am in anti-statistic mode today, I will say this, again: You can never know. Anyone can suddenly run, and anyone can suddenly falter. I have one word for the stattos and all power rankings (whom I do respect..) : CHIYONOFUJI. He may be an anomaly, but he be he, and there were probably others in the past and others in the making. I say live for today and let the future surprise us all. Statistical stakes to the freezer!! Gut stakes in the open! Stakes is the second part of the word mistakes!!

Thank you.

Ok, ok - but what is your personal beef with Aoiyama?

[Kintamayama]

Since I am in anti-statistic mode today, I will say this, again: You can never know. Anyone can suddenly run, and anyone can suddenly falter. I have one word for the stattos and all power rankings (whom I do respect..) : CHIYONOFUJI. He may be an anomaly, but he be he, and there were probably others in the past and others in the making. I say live for today and let the future surprise us all. Statistical stakes to the freezer!! Gut stakes in the open! Stakes is the second part of the word mistakes!!

Thank you.

Ok, ok - but what is your personal beef with Aoiyama?

Good one, sir.. For the record-sekitori by the end of the year.