Kaio - should he stay or should he go now

[Asashosakari]

Or have I misunderstood what you've said?

I suspect so, because I can't quite make sense of what you wrote here:

In what manner would the proper number be determined, on an ongoing basis? There has never been a proper number, and given the stringent requirements for ascension to ozeki, in effect it wouldn't be a proper number, it would be a maximum number. A few years ago, when Miyabiyama was almost the sixth ozeki, was there a serious suggestion that one of the existing ozeki should retire if he got the promotion?

I was suggesting exactly the opposite - perhaps the "proper" number of ozeki at that point was in fact six and Miyabiyama should have been promoted. (I'd guess it wasn't, but let's assume it for the sake of argument.) Nobody's saying that somebody should have retired for Miyabiyama, just that he just might have been a more qualified ozeki than some guy(s) actually holding the rank at that point.

In the end, the proper number would be the result of a subjective judgment that someone just 'doesn't belong.' It seems that is what we have right now, anyway.

Subjective, sure, but completely valid. In the end, the fans' collective judgement decides who's a proper ozeki and who isn't. But if you want me to put numbers on it, I'll go with what has already been variously insinuated in this thread: a proper ozeki should be competitive enough to post a minimum of 9 wins any time he's not obviously injured, with regular double-digit records, and any negative deviation from that level shouldn't last overly long. (By and large, people seem to be getting antsy after about a year, maybe a year and a half depending on popularity.)

If there's a situation where only two guys manage to be at that level, then perhaps there "should" be only two ozeki, and a larger lower sanyaku to compensate. If you can manage to cram six guys into it (easier without yokozuna, of course), that's acceptable to me, too, and probably to most fans. But nothing says that the top X rikishi at any given time must be yokozuna+ozeki.

As a thought experiment, presume another large rikishi strike/walkout that results in next basho's makuuchi to consist of all the current M10 to J14 rikishi. You'd immediately be left with a situation where quite likely nobody would be strong enough to be a proper ozeki (let alone yokozuna), simply because the skill differences within that particular set of rikishi just aren't large enough to support the required level of dominance. (Sumo game players will surely recognize the phenomenon immediately from various games.) Over time, similar situations can also develop organically, and assuming that the 5th or 6th best rikishi at any time simply has to be ranked as ozeki does a disservice to the rank.

Ultimately, if one assumes that "ozeki need to uphold the honor of the rank" is a paramount concern, then the system itself is screwed up when ozeki manage to hang on for too long. Of course, something like Jakusotsu's "if an ozeki is a cash cow, that's reason enough to leave him alone no matter how mediocre he becomes" is a perfectly acceptable counter-argument. The truth, as usual, is probably somewhere in between, and as I've said before in threads like this, it's somewhat unfortunate for the Kyokai to find itself tested on this issue by not just one but two (formerly extremely strong) ozeki at the same time.

Edit: Ah, and on second thought I think I figured out where our misunderstanding started:

In what manner would the proper number be determined, on an ongoing basis?

Were you assuming that my previous post was a normative argument? It wasn't, it was just a descriptive one. That proper number doesn't need to be determined for any explicit purpose at all, it's just a result of the observed level and quality of competition. If anything, I'm saying that an agreeable system of handling the ozeki rank would make sure that the actual holders of the rank roughly match the public perception of who "belongs" and who doesn't. The current one clearly doesn't. Whether it actually should is a different matter, as detailed in the paragraph right above this edit.

Edited March 26, 2009 by Asashosakari

[Mark Buckton]

a proper ozeki should be competitive enough to post a minimum of 9 wins any time he's not obviously injured, with regular double-digit records,

Personal figure?

The accepted / oft discused 'norm' for an ozeki in Japan is 10 wins - and pushing the yokozuna for the yusho.

You lower the bar considerably with claiming nine is OK when even 10 wins is a mere two thirds of bouts they will fight.

As most fights an ozeki gets are against lower rankers, in theory (although impossible) they will never have to beat one of their own rank or a yokozuna to satisfy this '9' that you deem required of a 'proper' ozeki.

Hardly something an ozeki should be able to fall back on.

Edited March 26, 2009 by Mark Buckton

[Jejima]

Let's say there were 6 ozeki (to go with 2 yokozunas) on the banzuke.

Would the shonichi torikumi look something like this?

O v S

O v S

O v M2

O v M2

O v M1

O v M1

Y v K

Y v K

It looks a little odd (to me) with two ozeki vs sekiwake bouts so early on.

Can there be a maximum number of ozeki, before it gets really silly? I know that if sekiwakes put up the numbers needed for ozeki promotion, then it is likely that an existing ozeki or two is not getting enough wins to remain at that rank.

But let's say that due to freakish results, that the current 5 ozeki have all kept their rank and that both Kotoshogiku and Baruto both get 34 wins over the same 3 basho, meeting the usual requirements for ozeki promotion, would the torikumi become a logistical nightmare? (I think there would have to be an ozeki vs ozeki match-up on shonichi, if that were the case - or maybe not quite, due to the Koto-boys, but I think my point is clear.)

Would having 7 ozeki demote the value of the rank?

If such a case were to arise, would the kyokai have a quiet word with Kaio and/or Chiyotaikai to tell them their day is over, and it is time to make way for the next wave of ozekis?

[Mark Buckton]

Actually, and perhaps a coincidence, it occurs to me that James Hardy, Nishinoshima and myself have all stated on here and with James and I, in Japanese English language news sources that Kaio should go intai.

All three are in Japan as is another writer on sumo I know to read the SF but not post who concurs that the bell should have long since tolled.

The proximity concept perhaps???

It would be interesting to see what Orion/Simmons has to say as another forum member in Japan although of course, as is seen above, not all those overseas think he should hang on as long as his fingernails hold out.

[Jejima]

Actually, and perhaps a coincidence, it occurs to me that James Hardy, Nishinoshima and myself have all stated on here and with James and I, in Japanese English language news sources that Kaio should go intai.

All three are in Japan as is another writer on sumo I know to read the SF but not post who concurs that the bell should have long since tolled.

The proximity concept perhaps???

It would be interesting to see what Orion/Simmons has to say as another forum member in Japan although of course, as is seen above, not all those overseas think he should hang on as long as his fingernails hold out.

I don't think statisticians would allow the above suggestion to go by unchallenged, as your data pool is quite small at the moment, and more corroborative evidence is needed (IMO).

In support of your argument....

Athough I lived in Japan for about 4 years, I've not lived there now for a number of years. I've managed to go to just one basho since my time away, and I've not managed to watch nearly as much sumo on TV as I used to. If, I do go to a basho again in the near future, I would love to see Kaio fight, as my current opportunity to attend is rare. (I'd also like to see Takanohana, Musashimaru and Mainoumi fight in such a scenario, but I can't).

Also these days, I don't get to watch as many of the Kaio bouts that I used to, so I'm not yet sated with his below-expectation-ozeki sumo.

If I were still living in Japan, still watching sumo every day (and especially if I were also reporting on it), I could see that a same-old, same-old Kaio 'eeking' out KKs could become a bit tedious after a year or two, and that it could be time for something new.

But, as I don't live in Japan, I hope that Kaio goes on for a while longer, so that if I do get to go Japan within the next year, I can watch him live one more time. (East wins...)

[James H]

James - I imagine the 91 comment was the London Jungyo and arrival in Japan came 5-10 years later

Apologies for off-topicness...

Purely to put the record straight on this, I got into sumo when living in Yokohama from 1991-92 (My dad was transferred here on business). Before that I was aware of sumo from my parents, who had lived here in the mid 70s (my mum and Washuyama could swap Wajima anecdotes all day). So I got into sumo about age 13 - mainly because at the time there was nothing else on TV that made any sense and kept on following it through the 90s til I returned to Japan after graduating in 2001.

[Asashosakari]

a proper ozeki should be competitive enough to post a minimum of 9 wins any time he's not obviously injured, with regular double-digit records,

Personal figure?

The accepted / oft discused 'norm' for an ozeki in Japan is 10 wins - and pushing the yokozuna for the yusho.

You lower the bar considerably with claiming nine is OK when even 10 wins is a mere two thirds of bouts they will fight.

We're talking different things. 10 is what an ozeki should strive for on a regular basis (and I'm acknowledging that with "should regularly reach double-digits"); I'm talking about 9 as what should be the absolute minimum "acceptable" performance for any given basho. I'm quite sure nobody in Japan has been claiming that an ozeki must never score below 10, because that's simply not realistic and never has been. Anyway, the overall guideline I've laid out was based on what by my impression (and I dare say I've paid much more attention to this than you have) is sufficient not to arouse significant public disapproval, not just the oft-repeated "10 wins or bust" conventional wisdom. Unquestioned conventional wisdom is boring, and rarely useful.

Edit: Massive whitespace in quoted post trimmed.

Edited March 26, 2009 by Asashosakari

[Mark Buckton]

the terminology usually rotates aound (ozeki standard is to) 'win a minimum of 10 bouts' which is kind of splitting hairs but is a term I see as leaning towards 'always' as opposed to

'should regularly reach double digits'

You are right though - not practical -especially with the kadoban luvin ozeki at the moment.

[Jakusotsu]

Conclusion: when Kaio retires, one half of the forum members will be glad, and the other half will be sad. That won't be changed, no matter how elaborate each side argues.

And keep in mind: none of us is in a position to demand from Kaio what he's supposed to do, one way or the other.

[tomayama]

a proper ozeki should be competitive enough to post a minimum of 9 wins any time he's not obviously injured, with regular double-digit records,

Personal figure?

The accepted / oft discused 'norm' for an ozeki in Japan is 10 wins - and pushing the yokozuna for the yusho.

You lower the bar considerably with claiming nine is OK when even 10 wins is a mere two thirds of bouts they will fight.

As most fights an ozeki gets are against lower rankers, in theory (although impossible) they will never have to beat one of their own rank or a yokozuna to satisfy this '9' that you deem required of a 'proper' ozeki.

Hardly something an ozeki should be able to fall back on.

I find it interesting that nobody mentions that the number of yokozuna and ozeki competing has to be included in any formula about a satisfying basho for an ozeki.

Assuming that an ozeki should win every third time against a yokozuna and you have five ozekis competing, every ozeki has in average 3.33 losses against the yokozunae and the other ozeki. To fulfill your requirement, they would have to go 8:1 against the lower rankers! And even then you would have some ozeki under 10 wins.

Or to tell it in another way: If the weakest ozeki looses to all other ozekis and yokozunas, he has to get a 8:1 of all lower rankers to secure his kachi-koshi, implying that he's really much stronger as them!

[Washuyama]

I had the same feeling about an ozeki back in the 70s, although it was only over a couple years... Sub-par records, not so great sumo. He actually lost his rank due to injury, but "lucked out" and got his 10-5 to get it back. Then went back to the 8-7/9-6 routine with a 5-10 in the middle. Everybody was predicting he would/should retire. (BTW, "everybody" was the Sumo World staff... Gimme a break I was 8).

Oh yeah, that ozeki "woke up" and made Yokozuna. Meet Mienoumi

OK Kaio... You can start your yokozuna run any time now!!!

[Gusoyama]

How about this for a solution? An Ozeki must carry a 50 win minimum over any 6 basho stretch. Or calendar year, whichever. But I don't think that is too unreasonable, it means 4 8-7 and 2 9-6 bashos. If you miss a basho, you have to up it to 10 per.

[harimakenji]

I think the most simple solution for the current situation would be to give protection from demotion to the ozeki only if in the previous basho he could get at least 10 wins (the expected result from an ozeki). This would make the back-scratching a bit more difficult (as every ozeki would need every win they can get to be safe for the next basho), and maybe it would inspire the ozeki to perform more worthy for their rank (and sort out the unworthy ones).

Edited March 26, 2009 by harimakenji

[Shomishuu]

The 9,10, 50 win requirement scenarios are much more reasonable than some kind of public impeachment process, which would be divisive, impossible to administer fairly, and embarrassing to all who would participate in it, not to mention the rikishi themselves. I did a study using the 9 win scenario recently by assuming it had been in place in the past (found here): Click on The Ozeki article in the left column. I would have had no problem with the outcomes, and frankly believe it would be good for ozumo.

But if Kaio (or Chiyotaikai) is to be the subject of a 'get out before you embarrass the rank' discussion, then the discussion should also include Musoyama, Hokutenyu, Asashio, Wakashimazu (and on and on), all of whom spent the bulk of their waning years at the rank without ever challenging for a single yusho, or even being viewed as a contender. This seems to be the general reason for asking for his head, while in fact it's nothing new. His only sin is that he is the current offender - not one from the past - and he's managed to hang on longer than the others.

I don't really have a problem with the idea that Kaio may not fit the ozeki ideal, but since there's nothing special about his example, I do firmly disagree with the idea that he be stripped of his rank by any process that has nothing to do with his opponents on the dohyo.

I would be highly in favor of a simple nine win requirement for avoiding kadoban and demotion, while maintaining the ten win avenue for regaining the rank in the first basho following demotion. The results of my study - while impossible to replicate actuality, of course - at least suggest that the outcome would result in more spirited competition, while still maintaining a reasonable degree of stability at the rank.

[Doitsuyama]

But if Kaio (or Chiyotaikai) is to be the subject of a 'get out before you embarrass the rank' discussion, then the discussion should also include Musoyama, Hokutenyu, Asashio, Wakashimazu (and on and on), all of whom spent the bulk of their waning years at the rank without ever challenging for a single yusho, or even being viewed as a contender. This seems to be the general reason for asking for his head, while in fact it's nothing new. His only sin is that he is the current offender - not one from the past - and he's managed to hang on longer than the others.

I thought the main point triggering the discussion was that Kaio is besmirching (sic) the ozeki rank because he has to use his awesome and deadly (not the actual choice of word) kotenage to keep it. That's missing in your good analysis, and with reason. That's because it's by and large meaningless to ask for his head because of the use of legal kimarite - the kyokai could easily have a quiet moment with him and telling him to stop it, like they supposedly did with Kyokushuzan (not the kotenage and not the ozeki rank obviously). Or is there another reason you omit that initial point?

Edit: The demise of Kaio has been discussed ad nauseam by now, and the more it gets discussed, it adds only to his legacy I feel. It's amazing that he is still doing his stuff when 36 of 62 thought he will retire within a year - in December 2005, or 31 of 39 in December 2007.

Edited March 26, 2009 by Doitsuyama

[Asashosakari]

But if Kaio (or Chiyotaikai) is to be the subject of a 'get out before you embarrass the rank' discussion, then the discussion should also include Musoyama, Hokutenyu, Asashio, Wakashimazu (and on and on) ...

There's really no "on and on" - the mere fact that it's always the same small handful of names that get brought up to make a history-based excuse is pretty indicting, actually. Besides, I thought the discussion did include all these guys already...

This seems to be the general reason for asking for his head, while in fact it's nothing new. His only sin is that he is the current offender - not one from the past - and he's managed to hang on longer than the others.

Agreed that any contemporary discussion will naturally be focused on the current case, but pointing that out is not a counter-argument in itself. And the "longer than others" part is actually a pretty major component and can't just be hand-waved away. Kaio's phase of ineffectiveness is soon going to be twice as long as those of the other guys, who mostly packed it in (or somehow managed to shape up) after ~2 years or less.

I don't really have a problem with the idea that Kaio may not fit the ozeki ideal, but since there's nothing special about his example, I do firmly disagree with the idea that he be stripped of his rank by any process that has nothing to do with his opponents on the dohyo.

Who in this thread or elsewhere proposed anything like that? In any case, there's always been lots of subtle and not so subtle pressure within the Kyokai on various issues, so expecting some type of action by them to deal with (what may or may not be considered a) devaluing of the ozeki rank is not exactly revolutionary. And it would be far from a "rank-stripping". The kosho abolition was a lot more major than anything mentioned in this thread, and it was pretty clearly aimed at the ozeki squad at the time, even if all rikishi ended up getting screwed by it. Somehow that didn't provoke much of a public outcry as far as the ozeki were concerned.

I would be highly in favor of a simple nine win requirement for avoiding kadoban and demotion, while maintaining the ten win avenue for regaining the rank in the first basho following demotion. The results of my study - while impossible to replicate actuality, of course - at least suggest that the outcome would result in more spirited competition, while still maintaining a reasonable degree of stability at the rank.

On the contrary, I suspect the main result of upping the requirements to 9 wins would be a lot more performances like Chiyotaikai's this basho. It's just too tempting to make one club member the designated fall guy of the basho if it's already clear after a few days that he's obviously incapable of fighting well and is going to miss the mark anyway.

[Shomishuu]

I thought the main point triggering the discussion was that Kaio is besmirching (sic) the ozeki rank because he has to use his awesome and deadly (not the actual choice of word) kotenage to keep it. That's missing in your good analysis, and with reason. That's because it's by and large meaningless to ask for his head because of the use of legal kimarite - the kyokai could easily have a quiet moment with him and telling him to stop it, like they supposedly did with Kyokushuzan (not the kotenage and not the ozeki rank obviously). Or is there another reason you omit that initial point?

I forget sometimes that not everyone (myself included) remembers all of the points made in prior posts in a long thread. Here's what I included in one of mine:

That leaves the kotenage issue, which the NSK could deal with, if they cared to (remember Raiden?) But as long as they don't, he's not the culprit - they are.

Lumping several tenuous arguments to make one strong case is sometimes tempting, but usually not very accurate.

As you (I think, at least) imply here, the kotenage issue is a red herring. It started out as the main thrust, but as I read more and more of the posts, it seemed to lose significance. Perhaps I should go back and re-read everything between the lines, but I'm approaching the ad nauseum stage myself. In short, I feel 'Kaionage' is useful only as a trifling add-on - something akin to the idea that the more cheap ingredients you add, the closer you get to a gourmet dish.

The only real issue to me is how competitive he is, or is not. In that vein, I haven't seen anything that warrants a summary demotion, especially in light of how others before him have been treated.

[Asashosakari]

Just to blatantly throw some more fire on the thread:

Anyone who's looked through old banzuke data (primarily on banzuke.com) has probably come across the 19th century practice of having large children do a ceremonial dohyo-iri. Those children are officially classified as makuuchi rikishi because they were listed on the banzuke, but I'm quite sure nobody (then or now) will have mistaken them for actual makuuchi rikishi.

And that's where Kaio's been headed these last few years - he's the giant child rikishi of the ozeki rank, an attraction for the audience but not actually a member in full standing. And the fact that he was such a strong near-yokozuna rikishi at his peak makes it all worse, not better.

[Mark Buckton]

actually, and slightly off topic - those children are not differentiated in the database which could lead new fans / general researchers to be confused as to why they have a 'record' listed.

[Shomishuu]

Asasho, on the aspect of including historical ozeki in the discussion, I meant one pointing out how Kaio's case might be different from theirs - that's what was missing.

Lastly (really): I couldn't tell where you were going with the idea of using fans' collective judgment and public perception to determine if an ozeki 'belongs,' and what process might be used to quantify that perception (e.g., I'm sure Kaio would get the Kyushu vote).

In the end, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on the validity of judgments that are admittedly very subjective. I respect your views and others who disagree with mine. This is, after all, why we are here. (Holiday feeling...)

[Sasanishiki]

This thread go tme looking a little more closely at Kaio in the past 18 months, thanks to the wonderful Doitsu-base (Holiday feeling...) I looked at his record since May 2007, which was the last time that Kaio got double digit wins (10-5) as we would expect him to as an ozeki. He is in his 11th basho since then, although he had to withdraw from two of those in the first week. I've therefore looked at the remaining 9 basho (including this one), where he has scored 8 or 9 each time - I don't really expect him to win the next two bouts he has this basho!

I was intrigued by the idea that Kaio scrapes his KK to hold his rank and that this could be explained by back-scratching (I realise there is another thread on this). I was surprised to find that, although he has only limped over the line in terms of the amount of wins each basho, in none of these 9 basho has he come down to needing a win on the win on the final day to get KK. He reached his KK on Day 11 three times, day 12 four times, and days 13 & 14 once each. I think this shows a couple of things: that he struggles in general when he faces the ozeki and yokozuna later in the basho, and that he perhaps has been saving himself to prolong his career.

Taking the first point, it must be noted that Kaio has not beaten Hakuho in the two and a half years since he became ozeki (0 from 12 in that time), and he has only beaten Asashoryu twice (2 of 14) in the last four years! I decided to do a break down of his record against the yokozuna, ozeki, sekiwake, komusubi and maegashira in each of these 9 basho to see where he struggles. With such a small sample I am hesitant to make definitive statements, but it appears that he has struggled against the Y all along, begun to struggle with the ozeki (although as conclusively), and is starting to struggle with the sekiwake (which sort of backs up my thoughts that he is losing his parity in fellow ozeki match ups). He has stayed reasonably steady against the komusubi and maegashira, with some allowance for off days. I think these numbers show that he is below the quality he once displayed and does not figure among the elite in terms of teh sumo he displays (which pains me to say because I've always had a soft spot for Kaio). However, likening him to the kaido rikishi (the big kids who were a spectacle) or the kanban ozeki (those that only did dohyo-iri and did not compete) is perhaps stretching the truth.

I'm loathe to make a table of the results I've made due to me not knowing how to (yes, I know there is also a thread about that at the moment). However, if you look in the database at Kaio's last year and a half, and particularly the last five basho, you'll see him trailing off against the O and S in particular.

[Asashosakari]

Lastly (really): I couldn't tell where you were going with the idea of using fans' collective judgment and public perception to determine if an ozeki 'belongs,' and what process might be used to quantify that perception (e.g., I'm sure Kaio would get the Kyushu vote).

I wasn't really going anywhere with it, other than to suggest a mild form of public shaming, resulting in Kaio getting the hint and voluntarily retiring by now. I disagree with the more extreme suggestions as far as that goes, such as MB's notion that Kaio should have retired after 2005 already, but I do think a kun-roku ozeki phase that's soon reaching four years is just too much. Put it this way - if he hangs on another year like that (and I can totally see that happening), that phase will have amounted to nearly half his entire ozeki career. And no matter where one stands on the "sullying one's legacy is/isn't possible" question, that's just got to have an effect.

[Hananotaka]

On the question of expectations of Ozeki vs. those of a Yokozuna, I'd like to add that while it doesn't get much play in the tabloid press, post-basho round-ups in the Japanese sumo magazines always get on the Ozekis' case for not getting 10+ wins and making the yusho arasoi interesting. Ozeki don't have a deliberation committee, nor pressure to retire if they don't consistently win, but they are the only other rank to have a ceremony when they are promoted, and they do have a limited protection from demotion, so expectations are there.

It seems though, that Kaio is getting picked on because he's not bad enough to get demoted even just one rank. I can't honestly see how this is something he should be blamed for. He won the Ozeki rank, and it is his until they take it from him. If they can't take it from him, then there's no need to retire. He'll go out with like a dying fuse rather than with a bang, but by the same token he'll accumulate some stupendous lifetime records. And after he retires, those records and his days of thunder will be remembered more than these kunroku times.

[Bilu]

It seems though, that Kaio is getting picked on because he's not bad enough to get demoted even just one rank. I can't honestly see how this is something he should be blamed for. He won the Ozeki rank, and it is his until they take it from him. If they can't take it from him, then there's no need to retire. He'll go out with like a dying fuse rather than with a bang, but by the same token he'll accumulate some stupendous lifetime records. And after he retires, those records and his days of thunder will be remembered more than these kunroku times.

If he won fare-and-square - then your point (i.e. let him stay until he's toppled) has its merit.

The problem is that he obviously employs back-scratching techniques for some of his wins and thus keeps his rank.

(BTW - maybe this technique should be added as a new kimarite (On the banzuke...) )

..And, I'm not sure what mark will he leave upon retirement... Many people may remember his era of disgrace and the undignified manner in which he accomplished his records...

[kame]

I think some of you kids (and non-kids) should get off your high horses asking for Kaio to retire because of "embarassing" performances.

He is the most respected rikishi among sekitori. He draws in the crowds. He's not a washed up wrestler living off old glories (5 makuuchi yusho) either: He has a winning record against the new "stars" (he is 16-11 vs Kise+Goeido+Baruto).

Kaio has been one of the top ozekis in history for years now, and has been proving nay-sayers wrong for just as long. He's a rock. What have you done?