Jejima Posted January 23, 2009 Posted January 23, 2009 (edited) Chiyotaikai may be joining Kotomitsuki as kadoban..... He needs to face Asashoryu today, Hakuho tomorrow, and possibly a genki Goeido on day 15 (who is perhaps looking at a potential Sekiwake slot for March). These do not seem like easy bouts to me. With Kotomitsuki also kadoban for March, this could make the (rubbish) conspiracy theory of 'Ozeki back-scratching'* interesting. *Thanks to Bilu for giving a suitable name to this conspiracy theory. Edited January 23, 2009 by Jejima
hidenohana Posted January 23, 2009 Posted January 23, 2009 Well all your predictions this basho have benn correct... (Sign of approval...)
Harry Posted January 23, 2009 Posted January 23, 2009 (edited) Honestly I thought Chiyotaikai would beat Harumafuji (and lost bench because of it)! That said, there's no guarantee Goeido will be Taikai's senshuraku aite. Goeido has to survive Kaio's kotenage today first!!! Edited January 23, 2009 by Harry
Jejima Posted January 23, 2009 Author Posted January 23, 2009 Well all your predictions this basho have benn correct... (Sign of approval...) I think your praise is too much - I think the only firm(ish) prediction that I made was Kotooshu to lose to Chiyotaikai (against heavy odds though :-))... However, the 'Ozeki Back-scratcher's' theory should have Harumafuji defeating Kotooshu tomorrow (especially if Harry is upset in today's bout).... However, the following points should be considered (if you are buying into the theory - which I am not).... a) If Harumafuji wins today (which he should do), he will be going into day 14 with a 7-6 record, and a likely 'easyish' foe for day 15. He might not need a day 14 victory over Osh to secure his KK. Harry's victory over Hakuho scuppered my original scenario for him (needing an 8th win on day 15 against Osh)..... Plus with the day 13 and 14 match-ups, it means that there won't be an all Ozeki match-up (could have been Harry vs Osh) in the third to last bout on senshuraku (which could have been arranged with more foresight from the torikumi makers, when they realised that Mickey was almost certain to go kyujo - perhaps his late withdrawal from the basho was the reason this won't happen*? - or perhaps a conscious effort to stop the 'Ozeki back-scratching?) b) It is too early to say whether Harumafuji has joined the 'Back-scratcher's club' - I think being a member would hinder anyone's hopes of becoming a Yokozuna - and so is best for habitual Ozeki residents. c) Harumafuji defeated Osh in their past three meetings, and so is probably the favourite to win anyways - so a win by him tomorrow would prove nothing. However, if you really wanted to go into deep conspiracy theory, you could also say that as Osh has already got his KK, and is out of the Yusho race, it may be advantageous to his heya for Harumafuji to win tomorrow, as kadoban (gouty?) Kotomitsuki will need every win he can get next basho..... Once again, I should iterate that I do not buy into this Ozeki conspiracy theory in any way, but I am playing along as if it were true, just to see when I am proved wrong. (Which I will be!) *I could explain further, but this post is already obscure enough as it is.
Jejima Posted January 23, 2009 Author Posted January 23, 2009 Honestly I thought Chiyotaikai would beat Harumafuji (and lost bench because of it)! Oh! I did kind of predict that one too. (Sign of approval...)
sekihiryu Posted January 23, 2009 Posted January 23, 2009 He will pull and big ole henka in the next three days or the perhaps Chiyo Windmill will come out to play on Guido if that bout happens on day 15 - after a cortisone injection in all the achy parts of his body....I am pretty sure he will get a one more win.
Sokkenaiyama Posted January 23, 2009 Posted January 23, 2009 Jee, Jezz, for a guy who doesn't at all believe in it, you sure talk about it a lot.
Asashosakari Posted January 23, 2009 Posted January 23, 2009 Here's a hint for how to make this conspiracy theory work: functionally, Kaio = Chiyotaikai. And Goeido will probably face both. 1-1 cumulative record? (Actually, that's a pretty good reason to give Taikai Hokutoriki or Tochiozan as his senshuraku opponent if today's bout works out according to that idea.)
Kozaru Posted January 23, 2009 Posted January 23, 2009 (edited) Hey Jejima, if you don't believe the Ozeki theory, perhaps you'll tell us when was the last time that an Ozeki who needed a win in the final days lost to one who didn't. You're right that one win by Harumafuji tomorrow doesn't prove anything, but it would be the 12th or so data point in an obvious pattern that some choose to deny. I had Kaio as my #1 pick against Chiyotaikai, and Haruma as #1 against Kotomitsuki. It's amazing how safe that is. If Haruma loses tomorrow, then he either isn't in the club, or no such club exists. That doesn't get us anywhere either. But shall we begin to take bets on how nicely it will work out for the kadoban Ozeki next basho (assuming they make it to the final days in striking distance of KK)? If it comes down to it next basho, I can create a market on the needy Ozeki losing to the KK-Ozeki in Sumo Market Game. You can bet all you have on it. There's also a good reason that nobody took last basho's bet on Ama beating Hakuho in the playoff, even though I set the odds on Ama at 5%. You'd think a guy who wins 50% of matches against an opponent could get some support at 5%, right? It seems somebody bet a small amount of money on it, but nothing substantial. A bet of a few thousand would have won the game, had Ama won. In reality, it was a sucker's bet and everybody knew it. There was no way that Ama was going to win that match. Edited January 23, 2009 by Kozaru
Jejima Posted January 23, 2009 Author Posted January 23, 2009 Jee, Jezz, for a guy who doesn't at all believe in it, you sure talk about it a lot. Hey Jejima, if you don't believe the Ozeki theory.... <snip> :-P If I am not careful, I will become a believer! :-O
Kozaru Posted January 23, 2009 Posted January 23, 2009 It's OK to believe, as long as there's reason. The second Kotooshu sends one of the senior Ozeki to their retirement, I'll convert.
Bilu Posted January 23, 2009 Posted January 23, 2009 To me, the 'Ozeki Back Scratching Club' (OBSC) is a done deal. Three things: 1. I really hope Harumafuji doesn't join the club. Actually I bet he doesn't. He's still young and has his pride and fighting spirit. 2. I wonder why mister 'get-your-act-straight-you'all' Rijicho (of the NSK, not the forum :-P ) doesn't do anything about the OBSC. Talking about 'unspirited sumo'... 3. Kaio should retire. The sooner the better. Yesterday will do.
sekihiryu Posted January 24, 2009 Posted January 24, 2009 (edited) He will pull and big ole henka in the next three days .... yep, picked that like dirty nose...not a big one but a desparate one nonetheless and it nearly worked for him, if he had kept his footing it was as good as done deal. Edited January 24, 2009 by sekihiryu
Sokkenaiyama Posted January 24, 2009 Posted January 24, 2009 There are great chances for Goeido to defer tomorrow. Especially after seeing what Kisenosato does in his bout with the Clown. We shall see, I for one would love to see an ass-kicking from the youngster, it would send a resounding message to the Old Ones.
Gernobono Posted January 24, 2009 Posted January 24, 2009 There are great chances for Goeido to defer tomorrow. Especially after seeing what Kisenosato does in his bout with the Clown. We shall see, I for one would love to see an ass-kicking from the youngster, it would send a resounding message to the Old Ones. come on... anyone really thinking goeido will win tomorrow?
Kintamayama Posted January 24, 2009 Posted January 24, 2009 anyone really thinking goeido will win tomorrow? I do.. but I've played him to lose in all games just to be on the safe side..
Tikozan Posted January 24, 2009 Posted January 24, 2009 Other theory: If Kisenosato wins his bout then he has 8-7 and will be Sekiwake next basho. Then Goeido will be only Komusubi and it doesn't matter whether 10 or 11 wins. That's the way to let Chiyotaikai win ;-) But if Kisenosato will lose and Kyokutenho wins then Goeido must win to get the Sekiwake slot. Could it be a right theory ;-)
Sasanishiki Posted January 24, 2009 Posted January 24, 2009 Wouldn't it be nice to see Chiyotaikai come out and smoke goeido tomorrow and put our suspicious minds to rest?
Doitsuyama Posted January 24, 2009 Posted January 24, 2009 Wouldn't it be nice to see Chiyotaikai come out and smoke goeido tomorrow and put our suspicious minds to rest? That's the wrong way around.
Sasanishiki Posted January 24, 2009 Posted January 24, 2009 Wouldn't it be nice to see Chiyotaikai come out and smoke goeido tomorrow and put our suspicious minds to rest? That's the wrong way around. Not necessarily. I'm talking over an honest contest in which Chiyotaikai displays high quality sumo and destroys his opponent in such a way that none of us are left wondering if back-scratching or whatever comes into play.
Doitsuyama Posted January 24, 2009 Posted January 24, 2009 Wouldn't it be nice to see Chiyotaikai come out and smoke goeido tomorrow and put our suspicious minds to rest? That's the wrong way around. Not necessarily. I'm talking over an honest contest in which Chiyotaikai displays high quality sumo and destroys his opponent in such a way that none of us are left wondering if back-scratching or whatever comes into play. Any makuuchi rikishi can let himself get pummeled from Chiyotaikai and let it look honest. That's no proof at all. Heck, even kimarite demonstrations from makushita rikishi can look pretty real.
Peterao Posted January 25, 2009 Posted January 25, 2009 Wouldn't it be nice to see Chiyotaikai come out and smoke goeido tomorrow and put our suspicious minds to rest? That's the wrong way around. Not necessarily. I'm talking over an honest contest in which Chiyotaikai displays high quality sumo and destroys his opponent in such a way that none of us are left wondering if back-scratching or whatever comes into play. Any makuuchi rikishi can let himself get pummeled from Chiyotaikai and let it look honest. That's no proof at all. Heck, even kimarite demonstrations from makushita rikishi can look pretty real. I think even I could have made Chiyotaikai's tsuppari today look real. At this rate, he will become the first ozeki forced out by the Kyokai's mandatory 65 year old retirement policy.
Sokkenaiyama Posted January 25, 2009 Posted January 25, 2009 Yawn. Nice drama in the end there. Goeido vs Taikai was clearly thrown, and I don't even want to begin on Hakuho vs. Asashoryu.
Mark Buckton Posted January 25, 2009 Posted January 25, 2009 hope the TV commentary in Romania was a little more colourful? (Shaking head...)
sekihiryu Posted January 25, 2009 Posted January 25, 2009 (edited) and I don't even want to begin on Hakuho vs. Asashoryu. why not, Asa thought it was a matta, as he got out very early, but he made a rookie mistake and let his guard down instead of going for the kill, the call from the Gyoji never came and he was swiftly dispatched. as for Chiyo, that was text book Chiyotaikai, he has done that a hundred plus times in the past few years Edited January 25, 2009 by sekihiryu
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