Kaio's prospect or lack thereof

[Jonosuke]

I read a story about Kaio's lack of progress recovering from his injuries and still not able to do proper training. He hasn't been looking good and he has not been able to do any training.

The situation is not that much different from what he has been going through almost every basho but this coming basho may be different. He cannot afford to skip the Hatsu but I don't see how he can even win six right now. I really can see his imminent retirement now.

[Harry]

Yes and he stated just the other day that he will retire if he will lose his ozeki rank. His arm seems worse than his leg but both are bad and take a long time to heal in the best of circumstances, having done 20 years of sumo not being the best circumstance. I'm afraid I don't hold out much hope for him either but he has certainly surprised us before.

[Asashosakari]

Yes and he stated just the other day that he will retire if he will lose his ozeki rank.

That's been said by Kaio or associated parties for at least the last five of his kadobans though; I wouldn't interpret that alone as "he doesn't think he will make it this time". At any rate, he's got the same thing going for (or possibly against) him as Asashoryu would - the meatgrinder looks very weak for Hatsu. I can't decide if that means he'll have an easier time of it or that there will be so many guys fighting for their own survival that he can't expect any gifts this time around...

[Millwood]

I continue to believe that the Kyokai got it wrong when they changed the Kyujo rules. In response to complaints that Ozeki were using kyujo to avoid makekoshi, they went too far. IMHO, at least an Ozeki, if not any Sanyaku or even any Makuuchi rikshi, should be able to declare kyujo before the basho and retain his rank. Bodies need time to heal, and it's wrong to loose great athletes because they must play hurt for their whole careers.

All sorts of details come to mind, such as "earning" kyujo basho passes based on time at rank.

[Kintamayama]

Teppo and shiko today + light butsugari for KaioU. "I'm hoping to be able to do some sumo at the beginning of next year. If I get my sumo-kan back I may be able to pull off something..", he said. But then.. "I'll probably not be putting on a mawashi this time next year..". "If he doesn't get the results then he has no choice but to quit. If by any chance he won't enter the basho, it's all over", said Tomozuna Oyakata.

Edited December 29, 2008 by Kintamayama

[Kotoviki]

I continue to believe that the Kyokai got it wrong when they changed the Kyujo rules. In response to complaints that Ozeki were using kyujo to avoid makekoshi, they went too far. IMHO, at least an Ozeki, if not any Sanyaku or even any Makuuchi rikshi, should be able to declare kyujo before the basho and retain his rank. Bodies need time to heal, and it's wrong to loose great athletes because they must play hurt for their whole careers.

All sorts of details come to mind, such as "earning" kyujo basho passes based on time at rank.

You are right on this one! It is painful to watch some of these guys at ALL ranks have to compete injured when they really do need time to heal.

Any rikishi knows that if he sits out a basho or two or three to heal a knee or shoulder or whatever happens to be they will plummet down the banzuke! They face two choices.. go on injured and hope for the best or sit out and start over.

Which is better? someone struggling to recover barely getting buy and not healing or someone sitting it out and getting a full recovery and starting over?

Well, Onomatsu's Waksuruga sat out 5 basho to recover. Came back just before dropping off the banzuke two basho ago and last basho earned the Jonokuchi Yusho. How heart breaking for him to go from Makushita 25 to Jonokuchi 24 in one year!! ;-)

So I for one hate this rule that they can't sit out a basho or two with legitimate injuries receiving care to get well. But then again some of the guys tell me "we're rikishi, supposed to be strong!"

[Washuyama]

I remember back in the 70s, Kotokaze was injured and went from M1 down to Ms30. It took him a year to make it back to Sekiwake and later Ozeki. Of course he was 21 not 35. I hope I'm wrong, but I think this the end of the line for Kaio.

[Mark Buckton]

I continue to believe that the Kyokai got it wrong when they changed the Kyujo rules.

So I for one hate this rule that they can't sit out a basho or two with legitimate injuries receiving care to get well. But then again some of the guys tell me "we're rikishi, supposed to be strong!"

the rules as they stand are something I support fully - except that I would also apply a similar rule to yokozuna except that retirement comes following an agreed upon absence.

How many times have we seen 'legitimate injuries' coincide with a few losses in the first week that then need '2 weeks to heal'

Far too many times have admirable careers been lengtened until the sekitori in question really was running on fumes as Kaio has been doing for 2/3 years. He was once a great rikishi but that time is past. Had he retired, say, late 04, his legacy would have spoken much better - whenever he retires now he will forever be remembered as the injured one / the kadoban record holder - without even the gumption to go for repromotion like Tochiazuma did. All this 'if I am demoted I will quit' talk sounds like 'its my ball and I'm going home if we don't play what I want to play'

Often these career extensions come at the expense of new talent making its way into the upper echelons - a side issue based on balancing the banzuke.

The guys who tell you they are supposed to be strong- are right.

Edited December 31, 2008 by Mark Buckton

[Doitsuyama]

Often these career extensions come at the expense of new talent making its way into the upper echelons - a side issue based on balancing the banzuke.

That's a total myth according to your own logic - if Kaio is that weak a new talent should be happy to face him instead of another joi-jin maegashira, shouldn't he? Well, obviously that's not true, and while the ozeki rank doesn't look right at times, Kaio certainly is stronger than a lower joi-jin rikishi.

So, a new talent would have it easier if Kaio and Chiyotaikai are gone - maybe Kotomitsuki too, and Tochiazuma already is away. Do you really want it that way? Be careful what you ask for, it might not be what you really desire.

[Jejima]

He was once a great rikishi but that time is past. Had he retired, say, late 04, his legacy would have spoken much better - whenever he retires now he will forever be remembered as the injured one / the kadoban record holder

As of the January basho, he will be tying the kadoban record with Chiyotaikai. These two are now numbers 1 and 2 for the longest serving Ozekis in the history of Ozumo (in terms of the number of bashos). Perhaps the kadoban record is a side-effect of longevity?

I will remember Kaio (if/when he retires) as one of the greatest Ozekis in the modern era, not to have been promoted to Yokozuna. He has won more Yushos than some Yokozunas. He has outlasted the rest of his debut class (Yokozunas Akebono, Takanohana and Wakanohana) - and then some. All this, in spite of being plagued by injuries.

I will miss him when he retires.

I have no problem with him deciding to retire, rather than being demoted to Sekiwake. I think he is old enough (and has been an Ozeki long enough) to have earned that right.

My only problem with this matter, is that he should have kept this to himself, as it is unfair on the other rikishi. He has said similar things before. In March 2006 he was kadoban and 5-7 going into the last three days, and won them all - Dejima on day 13 (okay, Kaio was probably favourite in this bout, anyways) Kotomitsuki on day 14, and Hakuho (who was 13-1 at the time, and would have secured his first ever Makunouchi yusho with a victory if he had won - in the end he lost to Asashoryu in the subsequent play-off) on day 15....

Then again in March 2007, he was again kadoban, and going into the last three days with a 5-7 record. Over the last three days, he defeated Kisenosato (handing him his MK), Takekaze (also being rewarded with an MK) and Ama.

Just one loss out of any of those six would have resulted in Kaio's intai. I am not suggesting that any of these bouts were 'yaocho', but rather that the aite of Kaio at the time realised the life-changing consequences of the bout, and this (plus Kaio being more fired up, due to what was on the line) may have effected their usual sumo a little.

[Asashosakari]

He has outlasted the rest of his debut class (Yokozunas Akebono, Takanohana and Wakanohana) - and then some.

Right. Basically he has managed to stick around through the Takanohana and Asashoryu eras, even though those two barely overlapped.

At any rate, exactly which retired rikishi is primarily remembered for the downside of his career? (Singing drunk...) Even something like Wakanohana 3's yokozuna stint is little more than a footnote when people remember his career - if anything, the main effect might be that it has dulled the overall impact of his career to the point that fewer people think about him altogether, but not that they emphasize the negative aspects when they do. If becoming a bit underappreciated is the worst that will happen to Kaio's career post-retirement, I'm sure neither he nor his fans will mind one bit. Not that there's that much of a chance of even that happening anyway, I suspect; he's pretty clearly the defining Japanese rikishi of the decade, and that's going to count for something.

[Gusoyama]

At any rate, exactly which retired rikishi is primarily remembered for the downside of his career? (Singing drunk...) Even

I remember Musoyama's downside more than his upside, but that has something to do with when I really started following sumo closely.

[Millwood]

the rules as they stand are something I support fully - except that I would also apply a similar rule to yokozuna except that retirement comes following an agreed upon absence.

How many times have we seen 'legitimate injuries' coincide with a few losses in the first week that then need '2 weeks to heal'

That's why I specifically said that Rikshi should be able to declare Kyujo BEFORE the basho and sit the whole basho out. If you disagree with that, please state an objection other than the one above.

[ryafuji]

January will be Kaio's 93rd makuuchi basho -- he needs only four more after that to equal Takamiyama's record. Personally I'm a little sad that it seems unlikely now that he'll make it -- it would have been quite an achievement for an ozeki. Normally it's only ex sekiwake bouncing up and down the maegashira ranks who get that close (Terao, Kotonowaka, Akinoshima etc).

[Asashosakari]

How many times have we seen 'legitimate injuries' coincide with a few losses in the first week that then need '2 weeks to heal'

What a strange claim, given that those rikishi are deriving no benefit whatsoever from withdrawing from the tournament. Who's going to fake an injury under those circumstances?

Edited December 31, 2008 by Asashosakari

[Shomishuu]

the rules as they stand are something I support fully - except that I would also apply a similar rule to yokozuna except that retirement comes following an agreed upon absence.

How many times have we seen 'legitimate injuries' coincide with a few losses in the first week that then need '2 weeks to heal'

That's why I specifically said that Rikshi should be able to declare Kyujo BEFORE the basho and sit the whole basho out. If you disagree with that, please state an objection other than the one above.

'Legitimate injuries' being in quotes - I believe - implies that the injuries are not thought to be real, and so kosho was requested as a result of the early losses to not only avoid a potential make koshi, but to gain an undeserved rest as well. But I'm sure Mark will set us all straight when he's up and about. (Singing drunk...)

Edited December 31, 2008 by Shomishuu

[Shomishuu]

As of the January basho, he will be tying the kadoban record with Chiyotaikai. These two are now numbers 1 and 2 for the longest serving Ozekis in the history of Ozumo (in terms of the number of bashos). Perhaps the kadoban record is a side-effect of longevity?

In Kaio's case, I would say to a large extent, the record has been 'earned' due to his make koshi rate of 26% in his ozeki career. This is 5th (going back to circa 1950) among the 18 rikishi with 20 or more ozeki basho. This rate has actually decreased in the past 17 basho since he's had only three MK during that time.

In case you're wondering about the other heads of that class:

Kotogahama 43%

Tochiazuma 42%

Musoyama 33%

Tochihikari 27%

Kaio 26%

Yutakayama 26%

Chiyotaikai 25%

On the other hand, for the most part, when Kaio and Chiyotaikai weren't horrid, they were very very good, as they rank 4th and 6th respectively in that same group of 18 ozeki, in their percentage of double digit wins as ozeki (48%/46%).

[Jejima]

In Kaio's case, I would say to a large extent, the record has been 'earned' due to his make koshi rate of 26% in his ozeki career. This is 5th (going back to circa 1950) among the 18 rikishi with 20 or more ozeki basho. This rate has actually decreased in the past 17 basho since he's had only three MK during that time.

Is your list including those rikishi who went on to become Yokozuna? If yes, how does he look when only compared to rikishi in that category, who peaked at Ozeki?

[Shomishuu]

In Kaio's case, I would say to a large extent, the record has been 'earned' due to his make koshi rate of 26% in his ozeki career. This is 5th (going back to circa 1950) among the 18 rikishi with 20 or more ozeki basho. This rate has actually decreased in the past 17 basho since he's had only three MK during that time.

Is your list including those rikishi who went on to become Yokozuna? If yes, how does he look when only compared to rikishi in that category, who peaked at Ozeki?

This group of 18 are from those who peaked at ozeki. The entire list of 32 ozeki from circa 1950 can be seen by clicking on "The Ozeki" article (left column) in SFM's October issue here.

[Wakatoryu]

Does the Kyokai not employ or have their own doctors/specialists that they can refer rikishi to go see if they are or suspect that they are injured? It seems if a rikishi were to go and see's a doctor/specialist, (especially one within the kyokai) and they are able to verify that a rikishi is indeed suffering from a legitimate injury or ailment and give an estimated time line for recovery there should be no question as to whether a rikishi is faking it or not.

Granted that still leaves the dilemma of what course of action should be taken with regards to rank in the case of a severe injury which may require many many months to heal, or much less severe injuries which may be nagging or re-occurring frequently. (Just what doctor ordered...)!

Edited January 1, 2009 by Wakatoryu

[Mark Buckton]

Does the Kyokai not employ or have their own doctors/specialists that they can refer rikishi to go see if they are or suspect that they are injured? It seems if a rikishi were to go and see's a doctor/specialist, (especially one within the kyokai) and they are able to verify that a rikishi is indeed suffering from a legitimate injury or ailment and give an estimated time line for recovery there should be no question as to whether a rikishi is faking it or not.

(I am not worthy...) (I am not worthy...) (Laughing...) (Laughing...) (Blinking...) (Blinking...) (Just what doctor ordered...) (Cheers...) ;-) (Going kyujo...) (Going kyujo...)

[Charlemagne]

This group of 18 are from those who peaked at ozeki. The entire list of 32 ozeki from circa 1950 can be seen by clicking on "The Ozeki" article (left column) in SFM's October issue here.

Just one flaw: Kotooshu isn't Caucasian, he's Bulgarian, and that's in Eastern Europe. :)

Besides this, it's a really nice article there, great statistical observations.

[Jejima]

This group of 18 are from those who peaked at ozeki. The entire list of 32 ozeki from circa 1950 can be seen by clicking on "The Ozeki" article (left column) in SFM's October issue here.

Very interesting article (Just what doctor ordered...). I am wondering whether some of the Yokozunas scored higher (using your system) because they passed through the Ozeki ranks quickly. It might be interesting to look at how they all did after 1 or 2 years at that rank - after which many of the list would have either have become Yokozunas, or would have started to decline in their performances, due to age and injuries.

I am very interested that Dejima (during his tenure as ozeki) performed better than Kotooshu is currently doing!

Edited January 1, 2009 by Jejima

[Shomishuu]

I am wondering whether some of the Yokozunas scored higher (using your system) because they passed through the Ozeki ranks quickly. It might be interesting to look at how they all did after 1 or 2 years at that rank - after which many of the list would have either have become Yokozunas, or would have started to decline in their performances, due to age and injuries.

In scrolling/scanning the database, I don't think you can establish a general rule regarding whether or not the yokozuna's ozeki careers were better early or late, except that the dai yokozuna generally had very short stints as ozeki. What is beyond dispute is that in almost every case, they ended up promoting the right guys to yokozuna, since - as the tables (not the database) show, only three yokozuna had worse ozeki grades than the highest graded ozeki (Kotokaze).

I am very interested that Dejima (during his tenure as ozeki) performed better than Kotooshu is currently doing!

Sometimes I wonder whether - if he no longer had a rank worth protecting - Kotooshu's current numbers would be any better than Dejima's post-ozeki numbers. Well, sometimes....

[nomadwolf]

Very interesting article ;-) . I am wondering whether some of the Yokozunas scored higher (using your system) because they passed through the Ozeki ranks quickly. It might be interesting to look at how they all did after 1 or 2 years at that rank - after which many of the list would have either have become Yokozunas, or would have started to decline in their performances, due to age and injuries.

I haven't read the article, but even if you include "kadobans" (or just MK) for Yokozunas, Chiyotaikai is still at the top. Assuming I did the query right.