Hatsu basho 2009 banzuke predictions

[Charlemagne]

Here goes:

Yokozuna E: Hakuho Y1e (13-2)

Yokozuna W: Asashoryu Y1w (0-0-15)

Yokozuna E2: None

Yokozuna W2: None

Ozeki E: Kotomitsuki O1e (9-6)

Ozeki W: Chiyotaikai O2e (8-7)

Ozeki E2: Kotooshu O2w (8-7)

Ozeki W2: Kaio O1w (1-3-11)

Ozeki E3: Ama S1e (13-2)

Ozeki W3: None

Sekiwake E: Baruto S1w (9-6)

Sekiwake W: Aminishiki K1w (8-7)

Sekiwake E2: None

Sekiwake W2: None

Komusubi E: Kisenosato M4e (11-4)

Komusubi W: Toyonoshima M1e (9-6)

Komusubi E2: None

Komusubi W2: None

Maegashira E: Kotoshogiku M3e (9-6)

Maegashira W: Kyokutenho M6w (10-5)

Maegashira E2: Miyabiyama M7e (10-5)

Maegashira W2: Takekaze M8e (9-6)

Maegashira E3: Yoshikaze M12e (11-4)

Maegashira W3: Goeido K1e (5-10)

Maegashira E4: Wakanosato M2w (6-9)

Maegashira W4: Kokkai M11e (9-6)

Maegashira E5: Futeno M1w (5-10)

Maegashira W5: Bushuyama M10e (8-7)

Maegashira E6: Aran M10w (8-7)

Maegashira W6: Takamisakari M14e (10-5)

Maegashira E7: Hokutoriki M3w (5-10)

Maegashira W7: Dejima M5w (6-9)

Maegashira E8: Asasekiryu M5e (5-10)

Maegashira W8: Kakuryu M6e (5-6-4)

Maegashira E9: Tosanoumi M16e (9-6)

Maegashira W9: Chiyohakuho M16w (9-6)

Maegashira E10: Tochinonada M7w (5-10)

Maegashira W10: Tokitenku M9w (7-8)

Maegashira E11: Tochiozan M9e (6-9)

Maegashira W11: Iwakiyama J2e (11-4)

Maegashira E12: Tochinoshin M4w (3-12)

Maegashira W12: Kakizoe M8w (5-10)

Maegashira E13: Koryu M11w (6-9)

Maegashira W13: Tamawashi J4w (10-5)

Maegashira E14: Toyohibiki M2e (0-0-15)

Maegashira W14: Masatsukasa M13e (6-9)

Maegashira E15: Tamanoshima M13w (6-9)

Maegashira W15: Yamamotoyama J3w (9-6)

Maegashira E16: Homasho M15w (7-8)

Maegashira W16: None

Maegashira E17: None

Maegashira W17: None

Note: Harumafuji is still listed as Ama because the GTB database still lists him as Ama.

[HenryK]

Here goes:

Nice effort, I've only small disagreements (for example, I expect Tokitenku above Tochinonada).

I've a question though: most order Aminishiki -- Kisenosato -- Toyonoshima just as you did. I wonder why -- shoudn't M1e 9-6 be worth more than K1w 8-7?

I personally would give the Sekiwake rank to Toyonoshima. Then Aminishiki, and Kisenosato at the bottom of the Sanyaku ranks as he came from below (or bottom end of, depending on the definition) the meatgrinder. But I guess I must be missing something.

Edited November 26, 2008 by HenryK

[Charlemagne]

Nice effort, I've only small disagreements (for example, I expect Tokitenku above Tochinonada).

I've a question though: most order Aminishiki -- Kisenosato -- Toyonoshima just as you did. I wonder why -- shoudn't M1e 9-6 be worth more than K1w 8-7?

I personally would give the Sekiwake rank to Toyonoshima. Then Aminishiki, and Kisenosato at the bottom of the Sanyaku ranks as he came from below (or bottom end of, depending on the definition) the meatgrinder.

Well, I strongly doubt the Kyokai and the banzuke makers define terms such as "meatgrinder", let alone use them. It's all completely on a rank+result basis, IMO.

Toyonoshima has M1e+9-6 -> potential M(-2)e

Kisenosato has M4e+11-4 -> potential M(-3)e

Hence Kisenosato should be ahead of Toyonoshima.

As for Aminishiki, my intuition and a few observations tell me it's quite rare for a maegashira to leap over a kachikoshi Komusubi and take a vacant Sekiwake slot.

I agree with you about the Tokitenku/Tochinonada part, I could have as well swapped them, but I must have overlooked this when I was sumbitting my entry form. Still, it might be either way.

All these being just my opinions and considerations, though.

Edited November 26, 2008 by Charlemagne

[Asashosakari]

Can't be much worse than last time when I got pretty much everything wrong in makuuchi and makushita... Lower juryo sure is tricky again, and pretty small promotions all across makushita this time:

Hakuho

[Bealzbob]

y Hakuho Asashoryu

o Kotomitsuki Chiyotaikai

o Kotooshu Kaio

o Harumafuji

s Baruto Aminishiki

k Toyonoshima Kisenosato

m1 Kotoshogiku Kyokutenho

m2 Miyabiyama Takekaze

m3 Yoshikaze Goeido

m4 Wakanosato Futeno

m5 Hokutoriki Kokkai

m6 Bushuyama Aran

m7 Dejima Asasekiryu

m8 Takamisakari Kakuryu

m9 Tochinonada Iwakiyama

m10 Tokitenku Tochinoshin

m11 Tochiozan Tosanoumi

m12 Kakizoe Chiyohakuho

m13 Tamawashi Koryu

m14 Yamamotoyama Toyohibiki

m15 Masatsukasa Tamanoshima

m16 Homasho

[Bealzbob]

Nice effort, I've only small disagreements (for example, I expect Tokitenku above Tochinonada).

I've a question though: most order Aminishiki -- Kisenosato -- Toyonoshima just as you did. I wonder why -- shoudn't M1e 9-6 be worth more than K1w 8-7?

I personally would give the Sekiwake rank to Toyonoshima. Then Aminishiki, and Kisenosato at the bottom of the Sanyaku ranks as he came from below (or bottom end of, depending on the definition) the meatgrinder.

Well, I strongly doubt the Kyokai and the banzuke makers define terms such as "meatgrinder", let alone use them. It's all completely on a rank+result basis, IMO.

Toyonoshima has M1e+9-6 -> potential M(-2)e

Kisenosato has M4e+11-4 -> potential M(-3)e

Hence Kisenosato should be ahead of Toyonoshima.

As for Aminishiki, my intuition and a few observations tell me it's quite rare for a maegashira to leap over a kachikoshi Komusubi and take a vacant Sekiwake slot.

I agree with you about the Tokitenku/Tochinonada part, I could have as well swapped them, but I must have overlooked this when I was sumbitting my entry form. Still, it might be either way.

All these being just my opinions and considerations, though.

I've given Toyonoshima the east slot because his record was achieved from a joi-jin rank whereas Kisenosato's was not. To me that is a big factor. As well as that, Toyonoshima starting at M1e was 'knocking on the door' as it were, so in any kind of a tight race, which 9-6 against an M4 11-4 imo is, he should get the nod. But you're right, it's all opinions and considerations :)

[Charlemagne]

Considering Kisenosato's torikumi for Kyushu Basho 2008, I'd disagree that he wasn't in the joi-jin (or the meatgrinder, as some like to say :)).

http://sumodb.sumogames.com/Rikishi_basho....35&b=200811

[Tikozan]

Tamaasuka

[Golynohana]

Tamaasuka (J8e, 5-10) J14 Hakuba (J12w, 7-8)

Fukuoka (Ms1w, 5-2) Ms1

Would be hard for Fukuoka .-(

or

is there a chance when they would demote Tamaasuka or Hakuba ;-)

It is the fact. New juryo have been already announced:

http://www.sumoforum.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=16770

[HenryK]

Considering Kisenosato's torikumi for Kyushu Basho 2008, I'd disagree that he wasn't in the joi-jin (or the meatgrinder, as some like to say :)).

http://sumodb.sumogames.com/Rikishi_basho....35&b=200811

Well, Kiseonsato fought 6 opponents ranked lower than himself. By contrast, Hokoutoriki at M3E fought only 4 lower ranked opponents; 3 of them in the last 3 days when KK was already way out of reach. And Toyonoshima at M1E fought only 2 opponents ranked lower than M4E (Kisenosato's rank). I would think this should be taken into consideration when comparing his 9-6 to Kise's 11-4.

[Doitsuyama]

Considering Kisenosato's torikumi for Kyushu Basho 2008, I'd disagree that he wasn't in the joi-jin (or the meatgrinder, as some like to say :)).

http://sumodb.sumogames.com/Rikishi_basho....35&b=200811

Well, Kiseonsato fought 6 opponents ranked lower than himself. By contrast, Hokoutoriki at M3E fought only 4 lower ranked opponents; 3 of them in the last 3 days when KK was already way out of reach. And Toyonoshima at M1E fought only 2 opponents ranked lower than M4E (Kisenosato's rank). I would think this should be taken into consideration when comparing his 9-6 to Kise's 11-4.

That's true, but look on the other hand who Kisenosato didn't meet out of those ranked higher than him: Goeido, Futeno and Hokutoriki (all 5-10, plus Wakanosato in his own heya) while Hokutoriki didn't meet Toyonoshima (9-6). Kisenosato (and also Tochinoshin and to a lesser degree even Asasekiryu) was in the joi-jin for all practical purposes (he was #14 after all with the withdrawal of Asashoryu, Kaio and Toyohibiki), and got the traditional mop-up duty to get stronger opponents for overperforming lower rankers like Miyabiyama and Takamisakari.

Going by my strength ratings, Kisenosato's opponents had a normal joi-jin average (even higher than Hakuho, but that's because Hakuho can't meet himself...). The lowest opponent averages in the joi-jin belonged to Kotomitsuki, Kotooshu and Kotoshogiku...

Edited November 28, 2008 by Doitsuyama

[HenryK]

Considering Kisenosato's torikumi for Kyushu Basho 2008, I'd disagree that he wasn't in the joi-jin (or the meatgrinder, as some like to say :)).

http://sumodb.sumogames.com/Rikishi_basho....35&b=200811

Well, Kiseonsato fought 6 opponents ranked lower than himself. By contrast, Hokoutoriki at M3E fought only 4 lower ranked opponents; 3 of them in the last 3 days when KK was already way out of reach. And Toyonoshima at M1E fought only 2 opponents ranked lower than M4E (Kisenosato's rank). I would think this should be taken into consideration when comparing his 9-6 to Kise's 11-4.

That's true, but look on the other hand who Kisenosato didn't meet out of those ranked higher than him: Goeido, Futeno and Hokutoriki (all 5-10, plus Wakanosato in his own heya) while Hokutoriki didn't meet Toyonoshima (9-6). Kisenosato (and also Tochinoshin and to a lesser degree even Asasekiryu) was in the joi-jin for all practical purposes (he was #14 after all with the withdrawal of Asashoryu, Kaio and Toyohibiki), and got the traditional mop-up duty to get stronger opponents for overperforming lower rankers like Miyabiyama and Takamisakari.

Going by my strength ratings, Kisenosato's opponents had a normal joi-jin average (even higher than Hakuho, but that's because Hakuho can't meet himself...). The lowest opponent averages in the joi-jin belonged to Kotomitsuki, Kotooshu and Kotoshogiku...

Thanks. A propos strenght-ratings.... please let me know when there is a publicly accessible update. I'm really interested.

[Chisaiyama]

Well the Kyushu basho has come and gone and Hatsu is looming on the horizon. We know we have a new Ozeki - Harumafuji and only 2 Makushita rikishi are advancing to Juryu, shin sekitori Kotokuni and multiple returnee Asofuji. So it's that magical time between the bashos when we all attempt to second and or third or fourth guess the shimpan and offer up our selections for the new banzuke.

I'm willing to be the first to open themselves up for trash talking and/or ridicule by showing my choices for Kintamayama's mind devouring game. Here are my first thoughts on the subject. Some people had a lot of "banzuke luck" in my version but there were so many bad performances, e.g. 2-13s, 5-10s etc. and so few truly inspired ones by comparison. It was easier for me than Aki '08 but there are some sticky points and stumbling blocks. I am especially concerned about the Komosubi slots. I think it's nearly a foregone conclusion that Toyonoshima should have K1E wrapped up but I am torn between Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku for the K1W. I mean in theory the 11-4 from a M4E SHOULD be enough in good times for a Sekiwake slot, failing that I would like to believe with his previous Sanyaku experience the banzuke makers could easily leap frog him over the M3E Kotoshogiku, but WILL they?

 
Yokozuna E: Hakuho Y1e (13-2)		   Yokozuna W: Asashoryu Y1w (0-0-15)
Ozeki E: Kotomitsuki O1e (9-6)		  Ozeki W: Chiyotaikai O2e (8-7)
Ozeki E2: Kotooshu O2w (8-7)			Ozeki W2: Kaio O1w (1-3-11)
Ozeki E3: None						  Ozeki W3: Ama S1e (13-2)
Sekiwake E: Baruto S1w (9-6)			Sekiwake W: Aminishiki K1w (8-7)
Komusubi E: Toyonoshima M1e (9-6)	   Komusubi W: Kisenosato M4e (11-4)
Maegashira E: Kotoshogiku M3e (9-6)	 Maegashira W: Kyokutenho M6w (10-5)
Maegashira E2: Miyabiyama M7e (10-5)	Maegashira W2: Takekaze M8e (9-6)
Maegashira E3: Yoshikaze M12e (11-4)	Maegashira W3: Aran M10w (8-7)
Maegashira E4: Kokkai M11e (9-6)		Maegashira W4: Bushuyama M10e (8-7)
Maegashira E5: Wakanosato M2w (6-9)	 Maegashira W5: Goeido K1e (5-10)
Maegashira E6: Takamisakari M14e (10-5) Maegashira W6: Futeno M1w (5-10)
Maegashira E7: Tosanoumi M16e (9-6)	 Maegashira W7: Chiyohakuho M16w (9-6)
Maegashira E8: Dejima M5w (6-9)		 Maegashira W8: Hokutoriki M3w (5-10)
Maegashira E9: Iwakiyama J2e (11-4)	 Maegashira W9: Shotenro J9w (12-3)
Maegashira E10: Tokitenku M9w (7-8)	 Maegashira W10: Asasekiryu M5e (5-10)
Maegashira E11: Tamawashi J4w (10-5)	Maegashira W11: Kakuryu M6e (5-6-4)
Maegashira E12: Tochiozan M9e (6-9)	 Maegashira W12: Tochinonada M7w (5-10)
Maegashira E13: Kakizoe M8w (5-10)	  Maegashira W13: Tochinoshin M4w (3-12)
Maegashira E14: Yamamotoyama J3w (9-6)  Maegashira W14: Koryu M11w (6-9)
Maegashira E15: Tamanoshima M13w (6-9)  Maegashira W15: Toyohibiki M2e (0-0-15)
Maegashira E16: Masatsukasa M13e (6-9)  Maegashira W16: None

So that's how I got it figured for now. I will undoubtedly change many of them 2 or 3 times at least before the 22nd of December and end up no better off than if I had stuck with my first thoughts. That's how it usually works at least. Heck I did that so many times last time I never got around to entering the contest! At least this time I put these choices in so right or wrong at least I will have tried.

[Hakuyobaku]

aran > bushuyama? (Clapping wildly...)

[Charlemagne]

Also, Tamanoshima can't possibly be ahead of Masatsukasa, IMO.

[Jakusotsu]

And yet this draft might even get more GTB points than ours... (Clapping wildly...)

[Asashosakari]

And yet this draft might even get more GTB points than ours... (Clapping wildly...)

Funny, that was my first thought, too. Frustrating, ain't it.

I could spend hours critiquing Chisaiyama's banzuke guess, but in lieu of that just one comment:

I mean in theory the 11-4 from a M4E SHOULD be enough in good times for a Sekiwake slot...

Can we please put to rest the notion that the komusubi rank is simply Maegashira Zero and the sekiwake rank is Maegashira Minus One? (Clapping wildly...) That's just not how it works, not even "in theory".

Edited November 29, 2008 by Asashosakari

[Chisaiyama]

And yet this draft might even get more GTB points than ours... B-)

Funny, that was my first thought, too. Frustrating, ain't it.

I could spend hours critiquing Chisaiyama's banzuke guess, but in lieu of that just one comment:

I mean in theory the 11-4 from a M4E SHOULD be enough in good times for a Sekiwake slot...

Can we please put to rest the notion that the komusubi rank is simply Maegashira Zero and the sekiwake rank is Maegashira Minus One? (In jonokuchi...) That's just not how it works, not even "in theory".

As regards the 1st point: Any critiquing you might offer would of course be welcome. As I noted in my comments in my post I realize that there are many problems with it. I especially have problems, every time not just this basho, with my mid to lower maegashiras. I just never can quite get the hang of dealing with so many poor and mediocre performances. I always tend to overpromote and/or demote.

As regards the 2nd point: I don't regard Komosubi as M0 and Sekiwake as M-1, although I do use the negative values of the candidates to provide a guideline of who should normally be promoted higher. Then I have to try and deal with the mindset of the shimpan who are really doing the deciding. Not long ago the shimpan would always treat a superior performance, especially by the numbers and gleefully leapfrog a lower M over a higher M with a lesser record. However about a year and a half or 2 years ago they changed and went with a promote from the higher rank theory. Under the 1st theory Kisenosato should be K1E while Toyonoshima should be K1W. Under the alternative theory Toyonoshima would be K1E, Kotoshogiku would be K1W and Kisnosato would end up at M1E. Nowadays it appears to be a mix of both thought lines hence my belief that this time it will be Toyonoshima at K1E with Kisenosato ending at K1W jumping over Kotoshogiku at M3 since there is only 1 rank differential but the difference in their performances was so striking.

I still contend that under the previous line of thinking of rewarding performance over rank that IF there were an opening at Sekiwake and Komosubi in this same instance that Kisenosato would have gotten the Sekiwake post, Toyo the KE and Koto the KW.

I know also there is no single, "perfect" formula for generating a banzuke or we would all be 15-0 at GTB every time. I also know there are 2 prevalent schools of thought on predicting promotion/demotion numerically as a) Wins minus Losses = shift up/down the banzuke, or b) Maegashira rank plus losses - Wins = new rank. In my deliberations I normally work out the Sanyaku and above as, I believe at least we probably all manage to get at least the Sekiwake and above correct each time. Then I try to place the demotees using a combination of those processes (generally they will generate the same number, but not always). Then I try to place the promotees using the holes left from the demotion process. Unfortuneately I quite often end up as I said earlier overpromoting or demoting people. I really have a hard time applying "banzuke luck" as I tend to often over reward 8-7 people because I don't want to unduly reward 7-8 or 6-9 performers.

Sorry didn't intend to to such depths of explanation. Basically I guess I am saying can anyone help me better understand the nuances of the placement of these "mediocre performers" the 6-9,7-8,9-7 people? (Whistling...)

[Chisaiyama]

aran > bushuyama? (Whistling...)

Yes, as noted in my previous post, I tend to overpromote by deciding where the demotees should be and then filling the holes with the KK people. I am already re-thinking those two as well as others for my 2nd draft.

Edit: Actually after checking it out see here. As you can see Tochinoshin made the same unexpected jump as I have indicated for Bushuyama, Aran is another story though and needs to come down at least a peg.

Edited November 29, 2008 by Chisaiyama

[Chisaiyama]

Also, Tamanoshima can't possibly be ahead of Masatsukasa, IMO.

Yes, that was an oopsie that I had actually caught but forgot to change it in my post, I now actually have these three positions as

M15E Masatsukasa M15W Toyohibiki

M16E Tamanoshima M16W None

Thanks

[Chisaiyama]

Quote from Asashosakari:

Hakuho (Ye, 13-2Y) Y Asashoryu (Yw, 0-0-15)

Kotomitsuki (O1e, 9-6) O1 Chiyotaikai (O2e, 8-7)

Kotooshu (O2w, 8-7) O2 Kaio (O1w, 1-3-11)

Ama (Se, 13-2) O3 ---

I am curious on this entry in your banzuke prognostication. When Kotooshu, Hakuho, and Kotomitsuki were shin Ozeki they all debuted at the lowest available WEST rank. In Kotooshu & Kotomitsuki's case O2W and in Hakuho's case at O3W. In all 3 situations they finished their Ozeki-toris with strong Jun-Yusho performances and in Kotomitsuki's and Hakuho's cases they finished their 2 preceeding basho with Jun-Yusho performances, yet they debuted at the WEST ranking. I am interested in why you believe Ama, sorry, Harumafuji will come in at the EAST spot?

[Asysanyama]

Quote from Asashosakari:

Hakuho (Ye, 13-2Y) Y Asashoryu (Yw, 0-0-15)

Kotomitsuki (O1e, 9-6) O1 Chiyotaikai (O2e, 8-7)

Kotooshu (O2w, 8-7) O2 Kaio (O1w, 1-3-11)

Ama (Se, 13-2) O3 ---

I am curious on this entry in your banzuke prognostication. When Kotooshu, Hakuho, and Kotomitsuki were shin Ozeki they all debuted at the lowest available WEST rank. In Kotooshu & Kotomitsuki's case O2W and in Hakuho's case at O3W. In all 3 situations they finished their Ozeki-toris with strong Jun-Yusho performances and in Kotomitsuki's and Hakuho's cases they finished their 2 preceeding basho with Jun-Yusho performances, yet they debuted at the WEST ranking. I am interested in why you believe Ama, sorry, Harumafuji will come in at the EAST spot?

No other Yokozuna (filling the WEST SPOT) at THAT time?

[Asojima]

I am interested in why you believe Ama, sorry, Harumafuji will come in at the EAST spot?

They attempt to keep the East and West Sanyaku in balance. If Asashoryu had retired, Harry would come in on the West side to keep from having too many Sanyaku on the East side.

Edited November 29, 2008 by Asojima

[Asashosakari]

I am interested in why you believe Ama, sorry, Harumafuji will come in at the EAST spot?

As the others have mentioned in more general terms - Harumafuji goes east because there's no other "overflow" sanyaku rikishi already occupying a solitary east slot above him, unlike when the previous three ozeki were promoted (where Asashoryu was still the sole yokozuna and had no west counterpart).

Edited November 29, 2008 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari]

As regards the 2nd point: I don't regard Komosubi as M0 and Sekiwake as M-1, although I do use the negative values of the candidates to provide a guideline of who should normally be promoted higher. Then I have to try and deal with the mindset of the shimpan who are really doing the deciding. Not long ago the shimpan would always treat a superior performance, especially by the numbers and gleefully leapfrog a lower M over a higher M with a lesser record. However about a year and a half or 2 years ago they changed and went with a promote from the higher rank theory. Under the 1st theory Kisenosato should be K1E while Toyonoshima should be K1W. Under the alternative theory Toyonoshima would be K1E, Kotoshogiku would be K1W and Kisnosato would end up at M1E. Nowadays it appears to be a mix of both thought lines hence my belief that this time it will be Toyonoshima at K1E with Kisenosato ending at K1W jumping over Kotoshogiku at M3 since there is only 1 rank differential but the difference in their performances was so striking.

So striking, in fact, that there's really no question that Kisenosato will end up ahead of Kotoshogiku. I honestly can't think of any moment in the last 50 years where the bolded scenario would have happened.

In any case, it's never a good idea to conflate scenarios with varying numbers of sanyaku ranks. For instance, the following situations don't actually contradict each other:

SomeKKguy (Ke, 8-7)	 K  Toyonoshima (M1e, 9-6)  |  Kisenosato (M4e, 11-4)  K  Toyonoshima (M1e, 9-6)
Kisenosato (M4e, 11-4)  M1						 |  SomeMKguy (Ke, 7-8)	 M1

The "rule" for allocating scarce sanyaku slots doesn't have to be the same as the one for allocating non-scarce slots.