Asashoryu's Future Potential

[Chinonofuji]

After reading the debate in the Ozumo thread on Asashoryu's potential, I thought we could hear what everyone thinks. How many yusho will Asashoryu retire with? Your prediction?

--C.

[tominishiki]

He his still young but he is in the right way I say he go to be like Takanohana but not the same because he his mongolian and not have so much injuries

[Fujisan]

20+ I think-

His healthy weight and youth,plus his obvious talent being the reasons why.

[Takanobaka]

I think he'll have some serious injury before he hits 20. First off, it is statistically improbable that it won't happen. Second, he does not seem to handle injuries (even relatively minor ones) very well...it seems to deflate his spirit. Additionally, he just doesn't have the physique to protect himself as well as some others. While he has excellent balance and quickness, his knees look fairly weak and it only takes one big guy to roll him over funny to knock him out for 6-10 months. Finally, part of the reason for his current greatness may hurt him....his ability and willingness to use unorthodox techniques may end up biting him in the butt....part of the reason many of them are used less frequently is because they present a much higher chance of injury during or after execution. Still, he'll be remembered as a great yokozuna, but the sentences may end up ending with 'what if...' more often than not...

[Chinonofuji]

OK who was brave enough to say 40 or more? (Clapping wildly...) (Punk rocker...) :-P

[Exil]

Let's play with statistics, shall we. ;-)

Let it be noted that we have 3 serious yusho contenders at the time.

Asashoryu's last 10 Year Basho Rank Record 2002 Haru Sw 11-4 Natsu Se 11-4J Nagoya Se 12-3J Aki O3e 10-5 Kyushu O2e 14-1Y 2003 Hatsu Oe 14-1Y Haru Yw 10-5J Natsu Ye 13-2Y Nagoya Ye 5-5-5 Aki Ye 13-2Y

Chiyotaikai's last 10 Year Basho Rank Record 2002 Haru Ow 7-8 Natsu O2w 11-4J Nagoya Ow 14-1Y Aki Oe 10-5 Kyushu Ow 6-3-6 2003 Hatsu O2w 0-0-15 Haru O2e 12-3Y Natsu Oe 10-5 Nagoya Ow 11-4J Aki Ow 11-4

Kaio's last 10 Year Basho Rank Record 2002 Haru O2w 12-3J Natsu Oe 11-4J Nagoya Oe 0-4-11 Aki O2e 12-3J Kyushu Oe 2-2-11 2003 Hatsu O3e 0-0-15 Haru O2w 10-5J Natsu Ow 11-4J Nagoya Oe 12-3Y Aki Oe 7-8

(Musashimaru won the missing 3 with 13-2 each. Also note that Tochiazuma won Hatsu 2002 and Kotomitsuki won Aki 2001.)

Now, due to some strange laws of statistics that defy common sense we are able to predict the outcome of next 5 bashos based on this data. ;-) Asashoryu looks certain to grab 1-2, maybe even 3. Kaio and Chiyotaikai should more or less get one each. That leaves us approximately one basho for a possible surprise winner, maybe even Musashimaru. (Sign of approval)

Based on this amazing analysis (which cannot be wrong, being based on statistical science and all), Asashoryu should be able to win some 2.4 yusho per year making it 6.666666... years before he hits the magical number 20. That'd be around Nagoya 2010, if I'm not badly mistaken. Should he be around then, he has 20 yusho under his belt. Q.E.D. (Applauding...) :-) :-(

Exact sciences :-) aside, I still think he has what it takes to get 20 yusho. Without serious injuries (and without personal problems...) he should be able to do it. (Eh?)

Edited December 14, 2004 by Exil

[Zenjimoto]

Let's play with statistics, shall we. :-D

Let it be noted that we have 3 serious yusho contenders at the time.

Asashoryu's last 10 Year Basho Rank Record 2002 Haru Sw 11-4 Natsu Se 11-4J Nagoya Se 12-3J Aki O3e 10-5 Kyushu O2e 14-1Y 2003 Hatsu Oe 14-1Y Haru Yw 10-5J Natsu Ye 13-2Y Nagoya Ye 5-5-5 Aki Ye 13-2Y

Chiyotaikai's last 10 Year Basho Rank Record 2002 Haru Ow 7-8 Natsu O2w 11-4J Nagoya Ow 14-1Y Aki Oe 10-5 Kyushu Ow 6-3-6 2003 Hatsu O2w 0-0-15 Haru O2e 12-3Y Natsu Oe 10-5 Nagoya Ow 11-4J Aki Ow 11-4

Kaio's last 10 Year Basho Rank Record 2002 Haru O2w 12-3J Natsu Oe 11-4J Nagoya Oe 0-4-11 Aki O2e 12-3J Kyushu Oe 2-2-11 2003 Hatsu O3e 0-0-15 Haru O2w 10-5J Natsu Ow 11-4J Nagoya Oe 12-3Y Aki Oe 7-8

(Musashimaru won the missing 3 with 13-2 each. Also note that Tochiazuma won Hatsu 2002 and Kotomitsuki won Aki 2001.)

Now, due to some strange laws of statistics that defy common sense we are able to predict the outcome of next 5 bashos based on this data. ;-) Asashoryu looks certain to grab 1-2, maybe even 3. Kaio and Chiyotaikai should more or less get one each. That leaves us approximately one basho for a possible surprise winner, maybe even Musashimaru. (Sign of approval)

Based on this amazing analysis (which cannot be wrong, being based on statistical science and all), Asashoryu should be able to win some 2.4 yusho per year making it 6.666666... years before he hits the magical number 20. That'd be around Nagoya 2010, if I'm not badly mistaken. Should he be around then, he has 20 yusho under his belt. Q.E.D. (Applauding...) :-) :-(

Exact sciences :-) aside, I still think he has what it takes to get 20 yusho. Without serious injuries (and without personal problems...) he should be able to do it. (Eh?)

I thought statistics NEVER defy common sense! ;-)

Fascinating analysis! ;-)

Go Miyabiyama!

Cheers

Z.

Edited December 14, 2004 by Exil

[Asashosakari]

Based on this amazing analysis (which cannot be wrong, being based on statistical science and all)

What's that adage about lies, damn lies, and statistics again... ;-) All kidding aside, nice work on the table and the analysis. (Eh?) Now I just need to do something about that pesky stats ghost in the back of my mind that keeps shouting "insufficient sample! Insufficient sample!" Yeah, yeah, I know you're being tongue-in-cheek...it's a study-induced reflex, I can't help it. (Applauding...)

Exact sciences :-( aside, I still think he has what it takes to get 20 yusho. Without serious injuries (and without personal problems...) he should be able to do it. :-)

I definitely agree, although like Takanobaka I would say the injury subject requires a pretty big 'without'...but hey, maybe the new kyujo rules will actually reduce the prevalence of injuries among the top guys. :-)

[Zenjimoto]

I definitely agree, although like Takanobaka I would say the injury subject requires a pretty big 'without'...but hey, maybe the new kyujo rules will actually reduce the prevalence of injuries among the top guys. (Applauding...)

'Course, the Yokozuna rank is the only one really totally unaffected by the kosho rules change - they can still show up as they please, within reason. :-)

Cheers

Z.

[Zentoryu]

The key for Asashoryu, as pointed out already in this thread, is injuries. I think he can survive most upper body injuries, but if he suffers a lower body injury, ie to his legs, it could be devastating.

The one thing you always hear the other rikishi say when they talk about Asashoryu is this: "The Yokozuna is so fast!"

Kaio has said this. Chiyotaikai has said this. They all say it.

It's visible just how quick and agile Asa is just from watching on TV.

He can have all the skill in the world, but it is clear that the key to his success, what really seperates him from the pack, is his incredible speed.

A serious injury to his legs or ankles that could rob him of that superior speed would probably serve to crush any hope of 20 or more Yusho.

[Jesinofuji]

Rikishis' ability changes over time. Young rikishi improve, while old rikishi slow down with age. I don't think the chart goes back too far to when Asashoryu was younger and not quite as powerful as he is now, its goes bact to before he was in the Yusho races, now thats not fair to a young rikishi. I think its more accurate to look over that last one year. I will revise this chart to give a better representation of our Yokozuna's true potential:

Asashoryu's last 6 Year Basho Rank Record 2002 Kyushu O2e 14-1Y 2003 Hatsu Oe 14-1Y Haru Yw 10-5J Natsu Ye 13-2Y Nagoya Ye 5-5-5 Aki Ye 13-2Y

Chiyotaikai's last 6 Year Basho Rank Record 2002 Kyushu Ow 6-3-6 2003 Hatsu O2w 0-0-15 Haru O2e 12-3Y Natsu Oe 10-5 Nagoya Ow 11-4J Aki Ow 11-4

Kaio's last 6 Year Basho Rank Record 2002 Kyushu Oe 2-2-11 2003 Hatsu O3e 0-0-15 Haru O2w 10-5J Natsu Ow 11-4J Nagoya Oe 12-3Y Aki Oe 7-8

Now we see that based on this statistical analysis we can conclude that Asashoryu is to win 4 basho a year. Making it exactly 4 years bfore he hits magic number 20 and 9 before he hits the 40 mark. Now we shoudl also take into account that he hasn't hit his prime yet and that he will soon get some heya help from the red dragon. Edited December 14, 2004 by Exil

[Asashosakari]

I definitely agree, although like Takanobaka I would say the injury subject requires a pretty big 'without'...but hey, maybe the new kyujo rules will actually reduce the prevalence of injuries among the top guys.

Edited October 8, 2003 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari]

Asashoryu's last 6 Year Basho Rank Record 2002 Kyushu O2e 14-1Y 2003 Hatsu Oe 14-1Y Haru Yw 10-5J Natsu Ye 13-2Y Nagoya Ye 5-5-5 Aki Ye 13-2Y

Chiyotaikai's last 6 Year Basho Rank Record 2002 Kyushu Ow 6-3-6 2003 Hatsu O2w 0-0-15 Haru O2e 12-3Y Natsu Oe 10-5 Nagoya Ow 11-4J Aki Ow 11-4

Kaio's last 6 Year Basho Rank Record 2002 Kyushu Oe 2-2-11 2003 Hatsu O3e 0-0-15 Haru O2w 10-5J Natsu Ow 11-4J Nagoya Oe 12-3Y Aki Oe 7-8

Now we see that based on this statistical analysis we can conclude that Asashoryu is to win 4 basho a year.

I trust you were being as tongue-in-cheek as Exil seemed to be. After all, there's Akebono.

6 yusho in 9 basho from 1992.11 to 1994.03

4 yusho in the following 40 basho of his career

In case you were indeed serious about using a 6-basho sample as the basis of your analysis spanning the next 9 years, nevermind.

Edited December 14, 2004 by Exil

[Yoavoshimaru]

I voted 10-20. Probably 16-18 would have been my more exact choice. Injuries, other contenders, mental pressure will all get to him. Nonetheless, he is already a very interesting yokozuna and will remain so for a while.

[Exil]

I thought statistics NEVER defy common sense! :-P

Fascinating analysis! :-D

Go Miyabiyama!

Statistics do not, the laws of statistics-based deduction do. :-D Thank you.

What's that adage about lies, damn lies, and statistics again... :-D All kidding aside, nice work on the table and the analysis. :-P Now I just need to do something about that pesky stats ghost in the back of my mind that keeps shouting "insufficient sample! Insufficient sample!" Yeah, yeah, I know you're being tongue-in-cheek...it's a study-induced reflex, I can't help it.  (Applauding...)

Oh, I forgot to include the essential "(margin of error 1.85%)" disclaimer. That always makes it more reliable. (Blushing...)

Now we see that based on this statistical analysis we can conclude that Asashoryu is to win 4 basho a year.

We can tweak the data even further: (I am not worthy...)

Asashoryu's randomly selected 4

Year	Basho	Rank	Record
2002	Kyushu	O2e	14-1Y
2003	Hatsu	Oe	14-1Y
	Natsu	Ye	13-2Y
	Aki	Ye	13-2Y

Which clearly shows that there is no question whether Asashoryu is capable of winning 4 out of 4. Thus we are able to deduce that he could win all of his remaining bashos (margin of error 1.15%). (I am not worthy...) Says the Magic 8 Ball. ;-)

Edited December 14, 2004 by Exil

[Asashosakari]

Ack!

[Kotoseiya Yuichi]

Not a forum standard emoticon as you can guess. (I am not worthy...) I would need to do about 176 of those if I started offering them...

[Asashosakari]

Not a forum standard emoticon as you can guess. (I am not worthy...) I would need to do about 176 of those if I started offering them...

Fortunately, a "Go Taka!" smilie could potentially be used for dozens of rikishi. (I am not worthy...)

[Takanobaka]

Says the Magic 8 Ball. (I am not worthy...)

Its reply was no (In a bad mood...)

[QttP]

We can tweak the data even further: (Whistling...)

<TABLE STYLE="border:1px solid black;">

<THEAD><B>Asashoryu's randomly selected 4</B></THEAD>

<TR STYLE="background:lightblue;"><TD><B>Year</B></TD><TD><B>Basho</B></TD><TD><B>Rank</B></TD><TD><B>Record</B></TD></TR>

<TR><TD ROWSPAN="1">2002</TD><TD>Kyushu</TD><TD>O2e</TD><TD>14-1Y</TD></TR>

<TR STYLE="background:lightgrey;"><TD ROWSPAN="3">2003</TD><TD>Hatsu</TD><TD>Oe</TD><TD>14-1Y</TD></TR>

<TR><TD>Natsu</TD><TD>Ye</TD><TD>13-2Y</TD></TR>

<TR STYLE="background:lightgrey;"><TD>Aki</TD><TD>Ye</TD><TD>13-2Y</TD></TR>

</TABLE>

Which clearly shows that there is no question whether Asashoryu is capable of winning 4 out of 4. Thus we are able to deduce that he could win all of his remaining bashos (margin of error 1.15%). (Blinking...) Says the Magic 8 Ball. ;-)

*nods*

Edited December 14, 2004 by Exil