Makuuchi veterans

[Kashunowaka]

<p>Aki basho was not a good basho for the old guard of makuuchi.</p><p>There were 14 makuuchi rikishi on the Aki basho banzuke who made their makuuchi debut in 1997 or before. Below are their results in order of makuuchi debut. I think the table speaks for itself.</p><style>td.mk { background-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) }td.kk { background-color: rgb(255, 136, 136) }</style><table border="1" style="text-align: center"><tr><th>Shikona</th><th>Rank</th><th>Highest rank</th><th>Makuuchi debut</th><th>Year of birth</th><th>Result Aki 2003</th></tr><tr><td>Kotonowaka</td><td>M12E</td><td>S</td><td>11/90</td><td>1968</td><td class="mk">0-0-15</td></tr><tr><td>Musashimaru</td><td>YW</td><td>Y</td><td>11/91</td><td>1971</td><td class="mk">0-0-15</td></tr><tr><td>Takanonami</td><td>M4W</td><td>O</td><td>11/91</td><td>1971</td><td class="mk">7-8</td></tr><tr><td>Wakanoyama</td><td>M14W</td><td>K</td><td>05/92</td><td>1972</td><td class="mk">7-8</td></tr><tr><td>Kaio</td><td>OE</td><td>O</td><td>05/93</td><td>1972</td><td class="mk">7-8</td></tr><tr><td>Musoyama</td><td>O2E</td><td>O</td><td>09/93</td><td>1972</td><td class="mk">1-5-9</td></tr><tr><td>Asanowaka</td><td>M14E</td><td>M1</td><td>03/94</td><td>1969</td><td class="mk">6-9</td></tr><tr><td>Tosanoumi</td><td>KW</td><td>S</td><td>07/95</td><td>1972</td><td class="mk">7-8</td></tr><tr><td>Kotoryu</td><td>M3E</td><td>M1</td><td>07/96</td><td>1972</td><td class="mk">4-11</td></tr><tr><td>Kyokushuzan</td><td>M8E</td><td>K</td><td>09/96</td><td>1973</td><td class="kk">8-7</td></tr><tr><td>Tochiazuma</td><td>O2W</td><td>O</td><td>11/96</td><td>1976</td><td class="kk">10-5</td></tr><tr><td>Dejima</td><td>M10E</td><td>O</td><td>03/97</td><td>1974</td><td class="mk">6-9</td></tr><tr><td>Tochinonada</td><td>M1W</td><td>S</td><td>05/97</td><td>1974</td><td class="kk">8-7</td></tr><tr><td>Chiyotaikai</td><td>OW</td><td>O</td><td>09/97</td><td>1976</td><td class="kk">11-4</td></tr></table><p>As you can see, two of the "youngsters" - Tochiazuma (26 yo) and Chiyotaikai (27 yo) - did rather good results.</p><p>What's there to add?</p><ul style="margin-right: 20%"><li>In addition to the ten first rikishi in the table, two other makuuchi rikishi are over 30 years old: M15E Otsukasa (32 yo, 8-7) and M10W Kaiho (30 yo, 5-10).<li>M13W Yotsukasa (7-8) turns 30 on Thursday.</li><li>In juryo, there were 4 rikishi with makuuchi experience from 1997 or earlier: <ul> <li>ex-sekiwake Tamakasuga (J1E, 10-5),</li> <li>ex-komusubi Oginishiki (J2E, 1-2-12),</li> <li>ex-M1 Aogiyama (J6E, 6-9) and</li> <li>ex-M3 Gojoro (J1W, 0-0-15)</li> </ul>At least Tamakasuga did OK. :-)<li>And veteran Sentoryu (34 yo, highest rank M12) did a visit to juryo but unfortunately only managed 4 wins.</li></ul>Edit: Otsukasa managed kachikoshi, despite his age. :-)

Edited December 14, 2004 by Exil

[Yubiquitoyama]

Nice report. With all the young ones in Makushita and a somewhat increasingly interesting Juryo it seems a major shifting of the guard, even more extreme than before, is on its way. :-)

However, I'm almost certain Otsukasa will not get demoted :-)

[Kashunowaka]

However, I'm almost certain Otsukasa will not get demoted :-)

Oops :-)

[Takanobaka]

I guess I shouldn't get my hopes up for a Hoshitango comeback anytime soon....

[Kintamayama]

To add to this report, the ten oldest rikishi over-all had their worse collective performance since i've been following them (1998) Only one managed KK..

Interested? You'll have to pack your bags and travel to my never-visited Old Geezers place at:

http://www.dichne.com/OldestRikishi.htm

Hey, nothing is free..

P.S. If you want to see how all ex-Makuuchi rikishi did, it's at:

http://www.dichne.com/exmaku.html

Edited September 22, 2003 by Kintamayama

[Yoavoshimaru]

This is probably a difficult question, but hey, we have seven weeks right? :-)

Statistically speaking, what is historically the peak year in a rikishi's career? This could be an age e.g. 27 or a year of experience e.g. 5th year from debut. To make it less ambiguous let's consider only rikishi who've won at least one makuuchi yusho.

I guess one would compute this based on the year in which the rikishi won the largest percentage of his or her yusho.

For example, Takanohana won 4 yusho in 1995 and also 4 in 1996, out of 22 yusho in total. So either year could be his best, since he got 4/22 = 18.2% of his yusho during the year. 1995 was 7 years after his sumo debut, and he was 23 years old.

So that's one rikishi... Doing it for many rikishi would be time-consuming... :-)

[Kashunowaka]

This is probably a difficult question, but hey, we have seven weeks right?  :-P

Statistically speaking, what is historically the peak year in a rikishi's career?  This could be an age e.g. 27 or a year of experience e.g. 5th year from debut.  To make it less ambiguous let's consider only rikishi who've won at least one makuuchi yusho.

I guess one would compute this based on the year in which the rikishi won the largest percentage of his or her yusho.

For example, Takanohana won 4 yusho in 1995 and also 4 in 1996, out of 22 yusho in total.  So either year could be his best, since he got 4/22 = 18.2% of his yusho during the year.  1995 was 7 years after his sumo debut, and he was 23 years old. 

So that's one rikishi... Doing it for many rikishi would be time-consuming...  ;-)

Takanohana also won 4 yusho in 1994, two of which were zensho ... At least recordwise perhaps one could argue that he was at his peak in 1996: 4 yusho, one playoff loss after a 14-1 basho, had to skip Kyushu basho due to an injury and still had the most wins over the year with a 70-5 record.

Akebono peaked in 1993 with 4 yusho and 76-14, but he also had a very good final year of his career in 2000. He "only" won 2 yusho but had the same win-loss record as in 1993.

Takatoriki won only one yusho, and that was naturally the highlight of his career, but I would hardly call 2000 his peak year. :-)

I think it would be hard to come up with a reliable formula for deciding the peak year of a rikishi's career. Counting yusho only makes sense for a very small number of rikishi. Win-loss records perhaps would make more sense.

[Yoavoshimaru]

I think it would be hard to come up with a reliable formula for deciding the peak year of a rikishi's career. Counting yusho only makes sense for a very small number of rikishi. Win-loss records perhaps would make more sense.

I agree it would be difficult to come up with a formula. This is exactly the kind of debate I wanted. The win-loss record is an interesting criteria. Perhaps it could be combine with percent yusho.

There are several forum members far more adept than myself at calculating and evaluating such statistics. Their input would be welcome as always ;-)

[Asashosakari]

This is probably a difficult question, but hey, we have seven weeks right?  :-P

Statistically speaking, what is historically the peak year in a rikishi's career?  This could be an age e.g. 27 or a year of experience e.g. 5th year from debut.  To make it less ambiguous let's consider only rikishi who've won at least one makuuchi yusho.

If you're willing to toss out that last provision, this post made to the SML last year might be something like what you're looking for...

Edit: I think Yubi-zeki also has made some age-related statistics, but bugger if I can find them online anywhere...(hint, hint ;-) )

Edited September 23, 2003 by Asashosakari

[Kashunowaka]

This is probably a difficult question, but hey, we have seven weeks right?  (In a state of confusion...)

Statistically speaking, what is historically the peak year in a rikishi's career?  This could be an age e.g. 27 or a year of experience e.g. 5th year from debut.  To make it less ambiguous let's consider only rikishi who've won at least one makuuchi yusho.

If you're willing to toss out that last provision, this post made to the SML last year might be something like what you're looking for...

Thanks, Asashosakari-zeki. Interesting study. As the author himself says, the method can be likened to firing an elephant gun to bring down an elephant, but the conclusions seem very plausible.

Naturally, an average doesn't say much about individual rikishi. With the help of Chijanofuji's Sumo Colosseum, I compiled the following list over some prominent rikishi, using the win-loss average as method of measurement:

<pre>Rikishi Born Peak Age Avg

Taiho 1940 1967 27 .921

Kitanoumi 1953 1978 25 .911

Chiyonofuji 1955 1998 33 .933

Konishiki 1963 1991 28 .776

Akebono 1969 1993 24 .844

2000 31 .844

Wakanohana 1971 1993 22 .756

Takanohana 1972 1996 24 .933

Musashimaru 1971 2001 30 .811

Takanonami 1971 1994 23 .778

Musoyama 1972 2001 29 .656

Kaio 1972 2000 28 .689

</pre>

Not very conclusive evidence, but as a matter of fact, the average age happens to be 27.

I also believe there to be some truth in the assumption that rikishi nowadays have prolonged careers compared to rikishi of yesteryear. That is a trend that can be seen in other sports as well.

Edited December 14, 2004 by Exil

[Asashosakari]

Interesting stats...I never realized that Wakanohana's most consistently good year was the year of his Ozeki run, not actually any of the years he spent at Ozeki/Yokozuna. Then again, the same appears to hold true for Kaio and Takanonami, and to some extent to Musoyama...maybe an indication of just how hard getting to Ozeki really is, at least for those for whom it's not just a half-year step on the way to becoming Yokozuna (like Akebono and Asashoryu).

However, I'm fairly confident that Chiyonofuji's peak year wasn't 1998. (In a state of confusion...)

Edited September 23, 2003 by Asashosakari

[Kashunowaka]

1988, 1998 ... 8-7, 7-8 ... I think you guys are too obsessed with nitty-gritty details. (Going kyujo...) (Yucky...) (Blinking...) (In a state of confusion...)

[Asashosakari]

1988, 1998 ... 8-7, 7-8 ... I think you guys are too obsessed with nitty-gritty details. (Going kyujo...) (Yucky...) (Blinking...) (In a state of confusion...)

If it makes you feel any better, I do enjoy the artistic value of your tables as well. :-/ :-P

[Kashunowaka]

1988, 1998 ... 8-7, 7-8 ... I think you guys are too obsessed with nitty-gritty details. (Going kyujo...)  (Yucky...) (Blinking...) (In a state of confusion...)

If it makes you feel any better, I do enjoy the artistic value of your tables as well. :-/ :-P

MUCH better, thank you.

I can also do them in <span style="color: blue; background-color: red;">blue-on-red</span>, if you like.

[Yoavoshimaru]

How interesting... Thanks for the mailing list post link and the other analysis from Kashunowaka-zeki (In a state of confusion...)

The mailing list guy's saying that

collectively one would expect the 76'ers (those born in 1976, including Chiyotaikai, Tochiazuma, Kotomitsuki and Wakanosato) not to show that much improvement in their remaining careers.  While there may be an individual breakthrough or two, at age 26 they are more likely about as good as they'll ever be.  On the other hand, for Asashoryu at age 22^

[Asashosakari]

So let's say we accept 27 as the average peak age for rikishi. What is the average starting age? 21? So maybe we can also conclude it takes 6 years on average to reach one's peak in ozumo?

That's much harder to answer than it used to be. In general, the shin-deshi joining a heya right after middle school are usually 15 or 16. The foreigners seem to be mostly 18 or 19, with some being a bit older. (There also have been a few Japanese from that age group who've become rikishi lately...maybe it's becoming more fashionable to finish high school first, but I'm just guessing here.) The college rikishi are mostly 22 or 23 when they turn pro, if I remember correctly.