Natsu 2008 banzuke discussion

[Asashosakari]

Hi-jacking Bealzbob's post into the more usual forum for these...

It'll also be the first time in almost 50 years that someone (Wakakirin) goes 6-9 from M15 and stays in makuuchi if it happens.

On the other hand, Kakizoe did it from M16 just last year...

The decision-making room for Wakakirin/Hakuba is somewhat self-contradictory thanks to that example and another recent one:

2007.07:

M16e Kakizoe 6-9 -> M16w

J4e Wakanoho 8-7 -> J1w

difference: 2 wins, 4.5 ranks --> no exchange

2006.09:

M12e Yoshikaze 5-10 -> J1e

J3w Katayama 8-7 -> M15w

difference: 3 wins, 7.5 ranks --> exchange

What makes it even more difficult to evaluate is that in both those situations, ranks disappeared (M17e in the 2007 example, both M16's in the older one). Frankly, if I had been in charge of those two banzukes, I would have done both cases exactly the opposite way...

On the one hand, Wakakirin/Hakuba is exactly the same as the Kakizoe/Wakanoho case (2 wins, 4.5 ranks); on the other hand, it might make a difference that Hakuba is at J3, not J4. In light of the fact that I would have taken Wakanoho, too, I guess that means I should take Hakuba for the final slot in my guess, but I have a feeling I'm going to be on the wrong side of the banzuke makers' decision again that way.

[Asashosakari]

And on another subject: Holy synchronicity, Batman!

Had to over-promote O3 & Futeno as no-one else deserved the slots

Check this out:

			   Hatsu 2008:				 |				  Haru 2008:

|

K Dejima 3-12 | K Takekaze 3-12

M1 Tokitenku 6-9 | M1 Kakuryu 6-9

[Bealzbob]

So do you think, like me, that 'kirin will get lucky ? I admit I'm basing it on nothing other than a hunch because, as I've said, history isn't exactly on his side. I just think in this case Hakuba's complete lack of makuuchi experience will count against him.

There are arguments for both sides, but I do think the one potentially significant difference in the 2 examples you give is that in both Hakuba and Wakanoho's cases they would have been makuuchi rookies and as such don't/didn't have any makuuchi pedigree, so the feeling might have been that they have/had to earn promotion by right, whereas Katayama possibly got the benefit of big banzuke luck because he was becoming (relatively speaking) a regular makuuchi rikishi having been in 5 makuuchi basho in the previous 1.5 years (although ironically that banzuke luck was his last makuuchi appearance to date).

Continuing the more general banzuke discussion, do you think Kokkai is safe for a komusubi 2 east slot ? I don't think they can deny him unless they really have decided to do away with the S2/K2 ranks that they seem to have done in the last few years.

[Bealzbob]

could they decide to keep Miyabiyama at the same rank again?

Funny you should mention that. My first attempt at a banzuke also resulted in flobby staying @ M2 but I shoe-horned him down to M3 bumping Tochiozan up to M2w from his initial M3w which also resulted in a corrective promotion of Futeno up from M4e to M3e.

My problems were mainly in the lower echelons of the makuuchi banzuke, not the top .... I had about 6 rikishi for the M16 rank (Blushing...)

[Asashosakari]

... I do think the one potentially significant difference in the 2 examples you give is that in both Hakuba and Wakanoho's cases they would have been makuuchi rookies and as such don't/didn't have any makuuchi pedigree, so the feeling might have been that they have/had to earn promotion by right

Now that is a very interesting point. FWIW, there hasn't been any such makuuchi debut in the last 30+ years (promotion with 9-6 at J5+, with 8-7 at J3+...1991 doesn't count, that was an expansion basho), so Kotokasuga looks set to do something fairly special. Which brings up an obvious question: if they have to do it with one guy already, perhaps they won't mind throwing in Hakuba, too? Maybe I'll just flip a coin... (Heck, maybe they will, too!)

Continuing the more general banzuke discussion, do you think Kokkai is safe for a komusubi 2 east slot ? I don't think they can deny him unless they really have decided to do away with the S2/K2 ranks that they seem to have done in the last few years.

I'd like to think he's a lock, but I'm not 100% sure. Still, his record tied that of a yokozuna who only missed out on the yusho in the very last bout of the tournament, that should count for something. Then again, there was this not so long ago, so I'm ready to believe almost any outrageous possibility when it comes to additional sanyaku slots.

Edit: And you could make an opposite argument to the makuuchi/juryo one here...perhaps an older guy who has never been in sanyaku and may never get another shot would be allowed to take an extra slot, while somebody like Kokkai for whom it's not a major accomplishment (or somebody like Homasho who is seen as a prospect) will be denied?

Edited March 25, 2008 by Asashosakari

[Bealzbob]

I wouldn't personally subscribe to your last paragraph as I'd see the likes of Kokkai & Homasho being let in 'to get their feet wet' for potentially longer stints in the future. But I do like the sentiment of letting an oldie in for 1 big hurrah.

I was actually thinking along similar lines with regards to Hakuba's promotion. I was thinking that if he'd been a younger hotter prospect that he'd be given the shout, but your Wakanoho example stymied that theory.

We'll have to leave it up to them to surprise us.

[chabonowaka]

Funny you should mention that. My first attempt at a banzuke also resulted in flobby staying @ M2 but I shoe-horned him down to M3 bumping Tochiozan up to M2w from his initial M3w which also resulted in a corrective promotion of Futeno up from M4e to M3e.

My problems were mainly in the lower echelons of the makuuchi banzuke, not the top .... I had about 6 rikishi for the M16 rank (Shaking head...)

i did something similar with Miyabiyama, but i ended up bumping Wakanoho over top of him. can't trust me though, i'm doing this for the second time in the last couple of years, and my attempt at last basho was horrible. :)

and i had the same problem with m16. actually, i would have placed about half of the guys in Juryo if i could, but _someone_ had to go into the bottom of Makuuchi. :) a lot of my final choices are kind of odd, maybe even startling. but it was the best i could do.

[Asashosakari]

And continuing the insomnia tour...

Still not sure what to do with makuuchi, so here's makushita-joi as a start. (Shaking head...) Plenty of forum favourites in there.

Hokutokuni

[That-Satsu-Guy]

Does this mean that Tosayutaka, fighting from the west, will have to fight and beat Aran, Yamamoto and Wakatenro to get back to the juryo?

Good luck, Mr. Gorilla.

[Doitsuyama]

Does this mean that Tosayutaka, fighting from the west, will have to fight and beat Aran, Yamamoto and Wakatenro to get back to the juryo?

Good luck, Mr. Gorilla.

Yes, of course lower divisions fight strictly east-west. Sekitori probably too if I think more about it.

[aderechelsea]

i suddenly realized that i have no personal interest in makushita after a looong time. (Shaking head...)

i guess i will root for Kanbayashi and Takakoyama this time around. I "need" heroes to spice up my interest :-)

[Fay]

And I have too many personal favourites among them, quite difficult to cross my fingers then, when they have to fight against each other:

Ryuho, Kotoyutaka, Tokusegawa, Sensho, Sugita. Nakanokuni, Sokokurai

[Bealzbob]

Oh dear oh dear. As opposed to aderechelsea, the top of makushita is almost a who's who of some of my favourites. YMY v Tosayutaka I really don't know who to root for. Probably YMY as I really want to see him against juryo in Nagoya.

[Asashosakari]

Does this mean that Tosayutaka, fighting from the west, will have to fight and beat Aran, Yamamoto and Wakatenro to get back to the juryo?

Notwithstanding Doitsuyama's snark :-P, no, the schedule isn't East/West based...it's well possible that Tosayutaka will have to go through all three, but he could also avoid all of them.

BTW, since there may be a couple of people interested, I did a quick check of the bottom of the division and I would place Takanoyama at Sd1e... It's close though, he's among four guys competing for the last two spots in makushita if I counted correctly.

[Oimeru]

I'm still horribly undecided about the sekiwake/komusubi situation.

If there were three komusubi, would the third one be east or west?

Look at these two precedents with and even number of rikishi at sekiwake and higher:

Aki 1997

Hatsu 1999

In the first case, they put the guy at K2W, balancing east and west makuuchi-wide

In the second case, they used K2E instead...

Maybe the simple way out is to go with 3 sekiwake or 4 komusubi. :-P

[Bealzbob]

I assumed he'd be K2e. That's obviously not the foregone conclusion that I thought it was :-P Considering there's currently an even amount of sanyaku (10) you'd have to assume (there I go again...) that any addition would go to the east side.

[Asashosakari]

I've always assumed that the Aki 1997 case was a screwup...there's really nothing else like it, and in any case if one wanted to balance out the east and west sides, the more logical way would be to skip the lowest east maegashira, not the lowest east sanyaku.

[Bealzbob]

P.S. to my above. If there were an odd number of ozeki and for example there was only an O2e then I could imagine a 3rd komusubi might might go to K2w

[messi19]

And continuing the insomnia tour...

Still not sure what to do with makuuchi, so here's makushita-joi as a start. :-P Plenty of forum favourites in there.

Hokutokuni

Edited March 26, 2008 by messi19

[HenryK]

Having mulled over this for some time, I expect Kokkai to be M1E, Baruto M1W, Kyokutenho M2E, Wakanoho M2W, Miyabiyama M3E, Kakuryu M3W, Tokitenku M4E, Aminishiki M4E. Bad banzuke luck for Kokkai, but everything else would simnply be too messy (including because there would be noone for M2W).

And I expect Wakakirin to stay in makuuchi.

Edited March 26, 2008 by HenryK

[Bealzbob]

It would be the first time in the history of ozumo if Kokkai was to miss out.

[Randomitsuki]

It would be the first time in the history of ozumo if Kokkai was to miss out.

I admit that I did not check this very carefully, but from a superficial analysis I believe that one could also argue for the opposite. If they did promote Kokkai to Komusubi it would be the first time (at least in recent times) that they open up an additional Komusubi slot for someone who was out of the meatgrinder/did not have regular sanyaku opponents.

Edited March 26, 2008 by Randomitsuki
replaced "joi-jin" with "meatgrinder"

[Bealzbob]

It would be the first time in the history of ozumo if Kokkai was to miss out.

I admit that I did not check this very carefully, but from a superficial analysis I believe that one could also argue for the opposite. If they did promote Kokkai to Komusubi it would be the first time (at least in recent times) that they open up an additional Komusubi slot for someone who was out of the meatgrinder/did not have regular sanyaku opponents.

A 12-3 from M4 or M5 has always, without exception, resulted in a sanyaku slot the basho afterwards. So it would be unprecedented for Kokkai to miss out. EDIT : In fact, going further than that, even maegashira 6 has always without exception achieved sanyaku after a 12-3.

There are plentiful examples of going from a rank > M2 into a K2 slot

I just think the odds are heavily heavily stacked in Kokkai's favour.

Edited March 26, 2008 by Bealzbob

[HenryK]

It would be the first time in the history of ozumo if Kokkai was to miss out.

I admit that I did not check this very carefully, but from a superficial analysis I believe that one could also argue for the opposite. If they did promote Kokkai to Komusubi it would be the first time (at least in recent times) that they open up an additional Komusubi slot for someone who was out of the meatgrinder/did not have regular sanyaku opponents.

A 12-3 from M4 or M5 has always, without exception, resulted in a sanyaku slot the basho afterwards. So it would be unprecedented for Kokkai to miss out. EDIT : In fact, going further than that, even maegashira 6 has always without exception achieved sanyaku after a 12-3.

There are plentiful examples of going from a rank > M2 into a K2 slot

I just think the odds are heavily heavily stacked in Kokkai's favour.

Sure, but the last time they openend an extra sanyaku slot for 12-3 and <=M4 was for Kaiketsu in 1972. And his case was arguably stronger, as he was (at M7w) tied with the eventual winner (S1E Hasegawa) after 15 days, and missed out on the yusho only in the play-off.

Which means Kokkai's case is pretty much unchartered territory, which gives the NSK quite a few degrees of freedom. What is likely to move the odds against him in my opinion is that the NSK won't be able to put a plausible M2/M3 together if Kokkai moves to K.

Btw, if we disregard the "extra sanyaku slot" business the odds would also be pretty favorable for Baruto -- since 1958, 9 out of 10 M7s were promoted to sanyaku after achieving 12-3.

Edited March 26, 2008 by HenryK

[Bealzbob]

I agree that Baruto will be unlucky in the next banzuke and have written as much elsewhere. I think Kokkai's situation will preclude Baruto from getting sanyaku unless they do the (to me) unthinkable and go for a K2e & a K2w which I don't think is a runner. Asasekiryu's KK really messed it all up :-P