Leaderboard Day 12 Hatsu Basho 2008

[Naganoyama]

After day 12, January 2008, Makuuchi division scores are: (Rikishi have fought 12 bouts except as otherwise stated)
Score	Rikishi	Shikona
12-0	0	-
11-1	2	Hakuho, Asashoryu
10-2	1	Kakuryu
9-3	2	Takekaze, Kyokutenho
8-4	7	Kaio, Kisenosato, Asasekiryu, Wakanoho, Kasugao, Futeno, Iwakiyama
7-5	5	Kotomitsuki, Kotooshu, Ama, Kotoshogiku(7-3-2), Kokkai
6-6	7	Tokitenku, Hokutoriki, Takamisakari, Tochiozan, Yoshikaze, Ichihara, Kaiho
5-7	6	Aminishiki, Miyabiyama, Goeido, Tochinonada, Roho, Baruto
4-8	3	Toyonoshima, Wakanosato, Toyohibiki
3-9	5	Tamakasuga, Homasho, Wakakirin, Kakizoe, Tosanoumi
2-10	2	Dejima, Tamanoshima
1-11	1	Shimootori(1-1-10)
0-12	1	Chiyotaikai(0-8-4)

After day 12, January 2008, Juryo division scores are: (Rikishi have fought 12 bouts except as otherwise stated)
Score	Rikishi	Shikona
12-0	0	-
11-1	0	-
10-2	0	-
9-3	2	Kitazakura, Tochinoshin
8-4	6	Sakaizawa, Hoshihikari, Hakuba, Shirononami, Kitataiki, Tamawashi
7-5	3	Ryuo, Kotokasuga, Otsukasa
6-6	5	Hakurozan, Hochiyama, Toyozakura, Mokonami, Masatsukasa
5-7	3	Koryu, Kimurayama, Wakakoyu
4-8	4	Chiyohakuho, Shunketsu, Asofuji, Kirinowaka
3-9	5	Kasuganishiki, Ushiomaru, Katayama, Satoyama, Tochinohana
2-10	0	-
1-11	0	-
0-12	0	-

[messi19]

Just thought about the fact that one of the two losses of Kakuryu came at the hands of the Wakanoho flight show and how he would likely be up there for a threesome Mongolian lead if he had been taken straight on! He really deserves a sansho for his efforts this basho.

[Washuyama]

I think it's pretty cool that the two leaders for the Juryo yusho at this late stage are at totally opposite ends of their careers. Kitazakura is showing some genkiness for someone who first reached Juryo almost 10 years ago. Tochinoshin is also looking very impressive for his first ever sekitori basho... I'm hoping they both do well down the stretch...

[Bealzbob]

3 days still to go and the lead juryo rikishi have 3 losses already. It's an assumption by me that given their current form they will both likely lose at least one more bout each, making the juryo yusho at best 11-4 - and that's only happened twice in the last 3 years (Foot in mouth...)

And in Tochinoshin's case - the last debutant juryo rikishi to yusho with 11-4 was Tosanoumi in 1994, and before him ? A certain Musashimaru in 1991 (Bow...) OK, weird facts are done for now.

[Fay]

he would likely be up there for a threesome Mongolian lead if he had been taken straight on!

I wouldn't say "likely". Kakuryu has four wins against Rikishi already MK, three more against likely MKs and one against a slumping Futeno.

Fair play to him for doing good sumo for a change but I'd still put my money on Waka in a head to head without a henka.

You will not be surprised that I couldn't disagree more. I would not only put my money for one bout but for the whole career. Kakuryu will make it to Ozeki at least, I doubt that Wakanoho will.

But that's not horseracing here, so I would prefer to set all my trust in Kakuryu. I watch and support him now for 2 1/2 years and I see that he is constantly developping.

[messi19]

he would likely be up there for a threesome Mongolian lead if he had been taken straight on!

I wouldn't say "likely". Kakuryu has four wins against Rikishi already MK, three more against likely MKs and one against a slumping Futeno.

Fair play to him for doing good sumo for a change but I'd still put my money on Waka in a head to head without a henka.

Well Wakanoho so far has not defeated any rikishi who are KK already nor any who are extremely likely to make it (couple of ones at 6-6)..except the victory over Kakuryu of course but we know how that happened..Wakanoho is obviously very strong at yotsu as the bout vs. Tochiozan again illustrated but Kakuryu is one of the smartest rikishi out there and he would have been my favourite especially considering Wakanoho's lack of experience. Perhaps I am overrating him, but I'd go as far as saying that Kakuryu is along with Goeido the most complete (technically speaking) rikishi Wakanoho has faced since he made sekitori(I know he has been up against Baruto and Wakanosato since then, but Waka didn't exactly face them in their prime and I'd take Kakuryu over the current versions of these two).

Edited January 24, 2008 by messi19

[Jakusotsu]

Perhaps I am overrating him, but I'd go as far as saying that Kakuryu is along with Goeido the most complete (technically speaking) rikishi Wakanoho has faced since he made sekitori...

Speaking about technically complete rikishi, I'm honestly surprised about Ichihara the more I got to watch him. He shows a great variety of skills - pushing, pulling, tripping, throwing, grappling - and doesn't look exactly bad with any of it (except for the half-hearted henka today perhaps). If he continues like that I'll gladly eat a crow and grant him far more potential than most other recent tsukedashi entrants.

Edited January 24, 2008 by Jakusotsu

[Bealzbob]

Kakuryu's first double figure basho EVER !! Congrats, and still only a baby (Yusho winner...)

[kaiguma]

3 days still to go and the lead juryo rikishi have 3 losses already. It's an assumption by me that given their current form they will both likely lose at least one more bout each, making the juryo yusho at best 11-4 - and that's only happened twice in the last 3 years (Laughing...)

And in Tochinoshin's case - the last debutant juryo rikishi to yusho with 11-4 was Tosanoumi in 1994, and before him ? A certain Musashimaru in 1991 ;-) OK, weird facts are done for now.

just for perspective, you'll find 2 more instances of juryo yusho with 10-5 in the past 3 years. 4/18 = 22% so it's not all that rare for a juryo yusho to be taken with less than 12 wins.

Further perspective: double your selection to 6 years and there are 9 cases for 11 wins alone, which is 25%. Throw in 10's and you get 12 out of 36, exactly 1/3 odds.

In the 3-year sample, 12-3 juryo yusho happened only 5 times (28%), 13-2 only 6 times (33%), 14-1 only twice (11% to match 10 or 11), and zensho only once (6% is not too bad, eh?) So even though modern-era sampling will put zensho juryo yusho at a marginal probability, it appears to be half as common as 3 of the other 6 possible results when you look at only the past 18 basho. Summation of lesser results goes a long way to disguise the error there, but a 3-year period is clearly too short for this type of analysis.

For the 6-year sample we have

10-5 : 3 : 8%

11-4 : 9 : 25% [a more or less 'common' result]

12-3 : 15 : 42%

13-2 : 10 : 28%

14-1 : 3 : 8%

15-0 : 1 : 3% [starting to more closely resemble reality]

And finally, just beyond the range of the 6-year sample, Buyuzan took the 2001 Aki yusho with only 9 wins. This is the only 9-6 juryo yusho ever, making it far more anamolous than even a juryo zensho. I'm sure others have written about it here before, but I'd love to have been ringside for the wicked 8-man kettei-sen!!! Yowza!!! (Yusho winner...) Anyone know how many rounds that lasted?

[Frinkanohana]

And finally, just beyond the range of the 6-year sample, Buyuzan took the 2001 Aki yusho with only 9 wins. This is the only 9-6 juryo yusho ever, making it far more anamolous than even a juryo zensho. I'm sure others have written about it here before, but I'd love to have been ringside for the wicked 8-man kettei-sen!!! Yowza!!! (Dribbling...) Anyone know how many rounds that lasted?

Three rounds:

Round 1 (Quarterfinal):

• Tamarikido beats Terao with okuridashi
  
• Haminishiki beats Oikari with watashikomi
  
• Buyuzan beats Takatoriki with yorikiri
  
• Sentoryu beats Wakatoba with oshidashi
  

Round 2 (Semifinal):

• Haminsihiki beats Tamarikido with hatakikomi
  
• Buyuzan beats Sentoryu with hikiotoshi
  

Round 3 (Final):

• Buyuzan beats Haminishiki with oshidashi
  

[kaiguma]

And finally, just beyond the range of the 6-year sample, Buyuzan took the 2001 Aki yusho with only 9 wins. This is the only 9-6 juryo yusho ever, making it far more anamolous than even a juryo zensho. I'm sure others have written about it here before, but I'd love to have been ringside for the wicked 8-man kettei-sen!!! Yowza!!! (Clapping wildly...) Anyone know how many rounds that lasted?

Three rounds:

Round 1 (Quarterfinal):

• Tamarikido beats Terao with okuridashi
  
• Haminishiki beats Oikari with watashikomi
  
• Buyuzan beats Takatoriki with yorikiri
  
• Sentoryu beats Wakatoba with oshidashi
  

Round 2 (Semifinal):

• Haminsihiki beats Tamarikido with hatakikomi
  
• Buyuzan beats Sentoryu with hikiotoshi
  

Round 3 (Final):

• Buyuzan beats Haminishiki with oshidashi
  

Ahhh, I guess no round robin for this large a group, eh? Exciting nonetheless. With Tochinoshin's 10th win on day 13 we are guaranteed not to see such a sight this basho. (Showing respect...)

[Gusoyama]

In researching new scoring for Salarycap, I looked into the last 20 years:(except for juryo jun yushos, that's only a year's worth of data. Sorry for the horrible formatting.

	
		   M	J	%M	%J
15-0 Y	14	1	11.66666667	0.833333333
14-1 Y	45	6	37.5	5
13-2 Y	49	16	40.83333333	13.33333333
12-3 Y	11	42	9.166666667	35
11-4 Y	1	38	0.833333333	31.66666667
10-5 Y	0	16	0	13.33333333
9-6 Y	0	1	0	0.833333333
15-0 JY	0	0	0	0
14-1 JY	7	0	3.95480226	0
13-2 JY	45	1	25.42372881	8.333333333
12-3 JY	73	3	41.24293785	25
11-4 JY	48	2	27.11864407	16.66666667
10-5 JY	4	6	2.259887006	50

They say a picture is worth 1000 words:

[Doitsuyama]

Ahhh, I guess no round robin for this large a group, eh? Exciting nonetheless. With Tochinoshin's 10th win on day 13 we are guaranteed not to see such a sight this basho. (Clapping wildly...)

What did you think? "Round robin" is never done anyway. It's always a simple knock-out tournament with the notable exception of three rikishi (called tomoe-sen, when two rikishi start off and then always the winner fights the third which is done until one of the three rikishi wins two successive bouts. With six it's a knock-out round followed the three rikishi tomoe-sen. With five rikishi one lucky rikishi gets a bye to the tomoe-sen, and so on.

Bonus question for the "younger" members, like you: Do all three rikishi have the same chance in a tomoe-sen?

[aderechelsea]

i guess the rikishi that fights with the winner of the first bout has worse chances since he cannot afford to lose his first match-up, something that the others might.

i have no mathematic data to support this but it is just a feeling.

Edited January 25, 2008 by aderechelsea

[Doitsuyama]

i guess the rikishi that fights with the winner of the first bout has worse chances since he cannot afford to lose his first match-up, something that the others might.

i have no mathematic data to support this but it is just a feeling.

Perfect. If I remember correctly, the first to have a 5/14 chance, and the third only 4/14, given same chance to win against each other.