Day 6 lower division results

[Doitsuyama]

Hokutokuni fought in juryo today and already is kachi-koshi as he beat struggling Satoyama with oshidashi to improve to 4-0. Musashigawa-beya Mongolian Shotenro won against Kotoyutaka to join the field of 3-0 rikishi in makushita, and his next opponent is Tosayutaka tomorrow in a rematch of the day 13 makushita yusho decider of last basho, as those two are the highest ranked rikishi left at 3-0. The third highest ranked rikishi at 3-0 already is Russian Amuru who seems to have transformed into a legit juryo candidate as he beat strong Takakoyama with yorikiri. He will face compatriot Aran on day 8 in another interesting bout. Minami suffered his first loss this basho at the hands of former juryo Kanbayashi.

A lot of interesting rikishi are 2-1 with wins like Mori, Shimoda, Sadanoumi, Furuichi (with tottari against Towanoyama, his seventh career tottari), Ri, Asahisakari and Kurosawa. Kurosawa is the youngest rikishi in makushita now at 19 years and

3 months, 6 months younger than Ri who in turn is a full year younger than Sadanoumi, Daishoyu and Gagamaru. The next are also young talents to watch with Sasaki, Nionoumi, Ikioi, Fujimoto and Fukunaga while the other 110 makushita rikishi already are 22 years old or older.

The youngest rikishi in the top 30 sandanme ranks are 17 years old Takayasu (who narrowly missed a makushita debut at Sd2e), 18 years old Asahisho and 19 years old Seiro and Kyokushuho, both from Mongolia. Those two were in action today with Seiro losing to Hidenofuji and Kyokushuho beating the oldest active rikishi in Ozumo, 40 years old Tochitenko, with tsukidashi. Makushita regulars Maeta and Shibuya are on track to return as both are 3-0 with wins today. 19 years old Karatsuumi also is 3-0 on his career high rank of Sd34e. Hungarian Masutoo and tall Tamanoi-beya youngster Oazuma lost today.

Fujiarashi had his win streak of nine wins since his return from injury broken with a loss today, but this was expected as his opponent was a makushita regular with Mongolian Arawashi. 17 years old Kotowatanabe also is 3-0 with a win against Namiki. In low jonokuchi Fujiazuma won with hikiotoshi, but something must have gone wrong for the returnee to the banzuke as he already is on the NSK kyujo list for tomorrow.

Jonokuchi

Jk32e  Fujiazuma (2-1)	 hikiotoshi	 Jk30w  Takamine (1-2)
Jk31e  Hanaoka (2-1)	   yorikiri	   Jk28e  Shuho (1-2)
Jk29w  Nasu (1-2)		  yorikiri	   Jk25w  Daishiryu (0-3)
Jk24e  Hisanotora (3-0)	oshidashi	  Jk27e  Wakatoohashi (2-1)
Jk23e  Kanai (2-1)		 oshidashi	  Jk25e  Daikosei (1-2)
Jk21w  Masuda (3-0)		hikiotoshi	 Jk20e  Terasawa (2-1)
Jk19e  Ishihara (2-1)	  yorikiri	   Jk22e  Ebisumaru (1-2)
Jk17w  Iwanaga (1-2)	   yorikiri	   Jk16e  Tochidaiho (0-3)
Jk17e  Kotosaito (2-1)	 tsukiotoshi	Jk15e  Fukusegawa (1-2)
Jk12w  Teraoumi (2-1)	  yorikiri	   Jk14w  Kikusegawa (1-2)
Jk11e  Teraoryu (2-1)	  tsukiotoshi	Jk10w  Oarai (1-2)
Jk9w   Adachi (3-0)		yorikiri	   Jk8w   Kainofuji (2-1)
Jk7e   Koseki (2-1)		hatakikomi	 Jk8e   Tateishi (1-2)
Jk6e   Shobimaru (2-1)	 shitatenage	Jk4e   Yamamoto (1-2)
Jk2w   Shobushi (3-0)	  oshitaoshi	 Jk5w   Yudai (2-1)

Jonidan

Jd123w Osawa (2-1)		 hatakikomi	 Jd121w Wakahizen (1-2)
Jd120e Akatsuki (2-1)	  yorikiri	   Jd118w Aoiumi (1-2)
Jd119e Mitsugi (1-2)	   yorikiri	   Jd116w Tsuzuranuki (0-3)
Jd117e Kirimaru (2-1)	  hatakikomi	 Jd115w Abeshima (1-2)
Jd113e Daiechizeno (2-1)   yorikiri	   Jd114w Kinoshita (1-2)
Jd111w Saio (2-1)		  shitatenage	Jd112w Suzunohana (1-2)
Jd109w Akifuji (1-2)	   yorikiri	   Jd108e Tamakazan (0-3)
Jd108w Daimao (2-1)		okuridashi	 Jd106e Hokutoryu (1-2)
Jd104e Matsubayama (1-2)   yorikiri	   Jd105e Toshi (0-3)
Jd103w Omiyamoto (2-1)	 tsukiotoshi	Jd102w Daigen (1-2)
Jd100e Kamakari (1-2)	  yorikiri	   Jd102e Aragyoshi (0-3)
Jd98w  Sekiho (2-1)		yorikiri	   Jd97w  Owaka (1-2)
Jd95e  Nekomata (1-2)	  yorikiri	   Jd96e  Taiseizan (0-3)
Jd96w  Tanemaru (2-1)	  yoritaoshi	 Jd94e  Akofuji (1-2)
Jd93e  Kotofubuki (1-2)	hatakikomi	 Jd90w  Kitakenmu (0-3)
Jd88w  Wakamigo (2-1)	  hikiotoshi	 Jd89w  Kojima (1-2)
Jd86e  Miyakofuji (1-2)	okuridashi	 Jd88e  Yoshinofuji (0-3)
Jd84e  Yoshioyama (2-1)	oshidashi	  Jd83e  Tamanosho (1-2)
Jd81e  Shinshiro (1-2)	 oshidashi	  Jd83w  Isanishiki (0-3)
Jd82e  Yamato (2-1)		yorikiri	   Jd80e  Yatsurugi (1-2)
Jd77e  Kotookuyama (2-1)   yorikiri	   Jd78e  Takasuruga (1-2)
Jd79e  Tamadaito (3-0)	 yorikiri	   Jd76e  Kawataka (2-1)
Jd72w  Taikomaru (2-1)	 hatakikomi	 Jd75w  Daikamifusa (1-2)
Jd71e  Kirimiyama (2-1)	okuridashi	 Jd69w  Shimasegawa (1-2)
Jd68w  Daishokai (1-2)	 oshidashi	  Jd70e  Noguchi (0-3)
Jd67w  Minezakura (2-1)	hikiotoshi	 Jd66w  Zendaisho (1-2)
Jd67e  Koju (3-0)		  yorikiri	   Jd63e  Tochiotoha (2-1)
Jd61w  Kasugamine (2-1)	oshidashi	  Jd62e  Kirizakura (1-2)
Jd61e  Kasugaumi (2-1)	 hatakikomi	 Jd59w  Amanowaka (1-2)
Jd58w  Kozan (3-0)		 makiotoshi	 Jd56e  Komatensho (2-1)
Jd55e  Asashogo (2-1)	  oshidashi	  Jd57e  Kotokobai (1-2)
Jd53w  Yamakashira (2-1)   uwatenage	  Jd51w  Tagen (1-2)
Jd52e  Daitenpaku (1-2)	oshidashi	  Jd50e  Nishitani (0-3)
Jd48w  Hanasegawa (2-1)	oshidashi	  Jd51e  Sadanokuni (1-2)
Jd47e  Taketoba (2-1)	  katasukashi	Jd46e  Asakubo (1-2)
Jd45e  Oito (1-2)		  okuridashi	 Jd47w  Shotsukasa (0-3)
Jd43w  Tochitensho (1-2)   yorikiri	   Jd42e  Aiyama (0-3)
Jd42w  Daishokaku (2-1)	yoritaoshi	 Jd40w  Hamamiiwa (1-2)
Jd38e  Ansei (2-1)		 uwatenage	  Jd39w  Kakushoma (1-2)
Jd35e  Miyoshi (2-1)	   shitatenage	Jd36w  Waki (1-2)
Jd34e  Kotowatanabe (3-0)  oshidashi	  Jd37e  Namiki (2-1)
Jd33e  Masumiura (1-2)	 yorikiri	   Jd31e  Maenohana (0-3)
Jd29w  Kotodaishin (2-1)   oshidashi	  Jd30w  Ayanokaze (1-2)
Jd26e  Teraoho (3-0)	   tsukiotoshi	Jd28w  Kotokashiwadani (2-1)
Jd27w  Kitagawa (2-1)	  yoritaoshi	 Jd25e  Komanokuni (1-2)
Jd22w  Arawashi (3-0)	  oshidashi	  Jd23e  Fujiarashi (2-1)
Jd21e  Sawada (2-1)		sukuinage	  Jd23w  Daishoryu (1-2)
Jd19e  Kaisenryu (2-1)	 oshidashi	  Jd20w  Takaki (1-2)
Jd17e  Fusanohana (2-1)	okuridashi	 Jd18e  Shinzan (1-2)
Jd16e  Daishoiwa (2-1)	 yorikiri	   Jd15e  Shinjo (1-2)
Jd13e  Kasuganami (3-0)	yorikiri	   Jd16w  Ryusei (2-1)
Jd11w  Makuhari (3-0)	  oshidashi	  Jd10e  Terunosato (2-1)
Jd9e   Fujita (2-1)		uwatenage	  Jd11e  Higuchi (1-2)
Jd8w   Jiguruma (2-1)	  yoritaoshi	 Jd6w   Okoryu (1-2)
Jd7e   Hiyoriyama (3-0)	yorikiri	   Jd5e   Tamakishin (2-1)
Jd3e   Notononami (2-1)	oshidashi	  Jd4e   Kairyu (1-2)

Sandanme

Sd100e Chiyohakuryu (2-1)  hatakikomi	 Jd2w   Katagiri (1-2)
Sd100w Chiyonoretsu (1-2)  oshidashi	  Sd99e  Nioyama (0-3)
Sd98w  Hidaka (3-0)		sukuinage	  Sd96w  Wakataizan (2-1)
Sd95e  Minanosato (2-1)	okuritaoshi	Sd96e  Tamakaizan (1-2)
Sd92w  Juban (2-1)		 yorikiri	   Sd92e  Oseumi (1-2)
Sd90e  Byakko (2-1)		yorikiri	   Sd91w  Tsubasaumi (1-2)
Sd87e  Dewahikari (1-2)	yorikiri	   Sd88e  Koryuyama (0-3)
Sd88w  Amanoumi (2-1)	  yorikiri	   Sd86e  Mankajo (1-2)
Sd84w  Aoba (2-1)		  oshidashi	  Sd83w  Genkaimaru (1-2)
Sd85w  Shinnishiki (1-2)   yorikiri	   Sd81w  Kubota (0-3)
Sd82w  Daishoko (3-0)	  kotenage	   Sd79w  Daise (2-1)
Sd78e  Hienriki (2-1)	  hikiotoshi	 Sd79e  Tokushuzan (1-2)
Sd77e  Mise (2-1)		  oshidashi	  Sd76e  Tochinoshima (1-2)
Sd73w  Yuzawa (1-2)		uwatedashinage Sd75w  Oazuma (0-3)
Sd70w  Umenokawa (1-2)	 hatakikomi	 Sd73e  Asatofuji (0-3)
Sd69w  Tosa (2-1)		  oshidashi	  Sd71w  Kotobuki (1-2)
Sd68w  Hamauzu (2-1)	   yorikiri	   Sd68e  Maenofuji (1-2)
Sd64e  Chiyonoshin (3-0)   oshidashi	  Sd65e  Kainowaka (2-1)
Sd62w  Ikeda (2-1)		 oshitaoshi	 Sd66w  Hitachigo (1-2)
Sd59e  Rendaiyama (3-0)	oshidashi	  Sd61e  Omatsuda (2-1)
Sd61w  Tanno (2-1)		 tsukiotoshi	Sd58e  Matsunoumi (1-2)
Sd56e  Kyokuhikari (1-2)   hatakikomi	 Sd60e  Takamiryu (0-3)
Sd53w  Toho (2-1)		  abisetaoshi	Sd55w  Rachimi (1-2)
Sd52e  Daishoki (1-2)	  hatakikomi	 Sd54e  Kasugasato (0-3)
Sd50e  Konofuji (2-1)	  okuridashi	 Sd51w  Hokutofuji (1-2)
Sd49w  Ryuden (2-1)		hatakikomi	 Sd48w  Tochinokuni (1-2)
Sd47e  Shinyu (2-1)		yoritaoshi	 Sd46e  Araumi (1-2)
Sd45e  Ginkakuzan (2-1)	oshidashi	  Sd43w  Masutoo (1-2)
Sd42w  Ryuyo (3-0)		 hikiotoshi	 Sd44w  Shima (2-1)
Sd39w  Tokizakura (3-0)	hatakikomi	 Sd40w  Kiozan (2-1)
Sd38e  Aotsurugi (2-1)	 yorikiri	   Sd41e  Kisomitsuru (1-2)
Sd39e  Yoshino (1-2)	   oshitaoshi	 Sd36e  Tsukamoto (0-3)
Sd34e  Karatsuumi (3-0)	oshidashi	  Sd37e  Futamusashi (2-1)
Sd35e  Enatsukasa (1-2)	oshidashi	  Sd32e  Onoshima (0-3)
Sd31e  Sonoda (2-1)		tsukiotoshi	Sd29e  Hokuo (1-2)
Sd31w  Wakahikari (1-2)	yorikiri	   Sd28e  Ichinotani (0-3)
Sd25w  Wakakengo (2-1)	 yorikiri	   Sd26w  Akinomine (1-2)
Sd26e  Saito (1-2)		 oshidashi	  Sd23w  Haruzakura (0-3)
Sd23e  Takahama (2-1)	  kotenage	   Sd22e  Tochifudo (1-2)
Sd19w  Chiyonohana (2-1)   yorikiri	   Sd18e  Kagemaru (1-2)
Sd16e  Maeta (3-0)		 oshidashi	  Sd21e  Koriyama (2-1)
Sd14w  Kyokushuho (2-1)	tsukidashi	 Sd13w  Tochitenko (1-2)
Sd12w  Shibuya (3-0)	   yoritaoshi	 Sd15e  Fujinokaze (2-1)
Sd11e  Hoshizakura (2-1)   yoritaoshi	 Sd10e  Tochihiryu (1-2)
Sd9w   Hidenofuji (3-0)	yorikiri	   Sd7e   Seiro (2-1)
Sd3w   Yuminosato (2-1)	okuridashi	 Sd6w   Kyokuryudake (1-2)
Sd5e   Toyohikari (2-1)	kubinage	   Sd2e   Takayasu (1-2)

Makushita

Sd1e   Kimenryu (2-1)	  hikiotoshi	 Ms60e  Bungonishiki (1-2)
Ms57w  Sadanishiki (2-1)   yorikiri	   Ms59w  Futasegawa (1-2)
Ms56e  Hananosato (2-1)	shitatenage	Ms54w  Gorikiyama (1-2)
Ms55e  Mizuguchi (2-1)	 hatakikomi	 Ms54e  Saita (1-2)
Ms52e  Nishikikaze (1-2)   sukuinage	  Ms53e  Orora (0-3)
Ms55w  Matsumidori (3-0)   hikiotoshi	 Ms51e  Fukunaga (2-1)
Ms49w  Kurosawa (2-1)	  oshidashi	  Ms50w  Chokozan (1-2)
Ms49e  Asahisakari (2-1)   yorikiri	   Ms47e  Taika (1-2)
Ms46w  Kaishoryu (2-1)	 okuridashi	 Ms45w  Keno (1-2)
Ms44e  Wakamifuji (3-0)	oshidashi	  Ms42w  Aozora (2-1)
Ms43e  Hayasegawa (2-1)	oshidashi	  Ms41w  Kakureizan (1-2)
Ms39e  Wakaryusei (2-1)	yorikiri	   Ms40e  Wakakasuga (1-2)
Ms38w  Ri (2-1)			oshidashi	  Ms36e  Minaminoshima (1-2)
Ms35e  Daitensho (3-0)	 hatakikomi	 Ms36w  Hokutoiwa (2-1)
Ms33e  Takaazuma (1-2)	 yorikiri	   Ms33w  Mochimaru (0-3)
Ms31e  Daishoma (2-1)	  uwatenage	  Ms32e  Dewaotori (1-2)
Ms29w  Furuichi (2-1)	  tottari		Ms30w  Towanoyama (1-2)
Ms26w  Kanbayashi (3-0)	oshidashi	  Ms28e  Minami (2-1)
Ms27e  Sadanoumi (2-1)	 yorikiri	   Ms25e  Tamaasuka (1-2)
Ms23e  Shimoda (2-1)	   oshidashi	  Ms24e  Shoketsu (1-2)
Ms20e  Daishoyu (1-2)	  hikiotoshi	 Ms22e  Tochinoyama (0-3)
Ms21w  Toyonokuni (2-1)	uwatenage	  Ms19e  Fukuoka (1-2)
Ms19w  Daimanazuru (2-1)   yorikiri	   Ms18w  Raiko (1-2)
Ms18e  Mori (2-1)		  oshitaoshi	 Ms17e  Satsukiumi (1-2)
Ms16w  Amuru (3-0)		 yorikiri	   Ms14e  Takakoyama (2-1)
Ms11e  Nakanishi (2-1)	 yorikiri	   Ms13e  Sensho (1-2)
Ms10e  Ryugi (1-2)		 yoritaoshi	 Ms12w  Tochitsubasa (0-3)
Ms8w   Shotenro (3-0)	  yorikiri	   Ms12e  Kotoyutaka (2-1)
Ms6e   Kaonishiki (2-1)	oshitaoshi	 Ms8e   Ryuho (1-2)

Edited January 18, 2008 by Doitsuyama

[Asashosakari]

The youngest rikishi in the top 30 sandanme ranks are 17 years old Takayasu (who narrowly missed a makushita debut at Sd2e), 18 years old Asahisho and 19 years old Seiro and Kyokushuho, both from Mongolia.

And a bit lower at Sd49w, Ryuden who's even 8 months younger than Takayasu and won to move to 2-1 today...

[Doitsuyama]

The youngest rikishi in the top 30 sandanme ranks are 17 years old Takayasu (who narrowly missed a makushita debut at Sd2e), 18 years old Asahisho and 19 years old Seiro and Kyokushuho, both from Mongolia.

And a bit lower at Sd49w, Ryuden who's even 8 months younger than Takayasu and won to move to 2-1 today...

Ok, but there's a big difference between Sd2 and Sd49, about 140 rating points going by Zentoryu's divisional strength values, and lower sandanme usually has a lot of younger rikishi. So I felt compelled to make the restriction to Sd30. You are right though, Ryuden also is a talent to watch, the currently youngest rikishi in sandanme in fact.

[messi19]

That makes him nine days younger than Masunoyama. I wonder who will have the better career. They fought it out for quite a while when Masunoyama went to Takadagawa beya prior to Kyushu basho. Ryuden was doing a bit better.

Edited January 18, 2008 by messi19

[Gusoyama]

The third highest ranked rikishi at 3-0 already is Russian Amuru who seems to have transformed into a legit juryo candidate as he beat strong Takakoyama with yorikiri. He will face compatriot Aran on day 8 in another interesting bout. Minami suffered his first loss this basho at the hands of former juryo Kanbayashi.

Great. Another caucasian/european in the upper ranks. Just what we need. (Punk rocker...)

[Doitsuyama]

The third highest ranked rikishi at 3-0 already is Russian Amuru who seems to have transformed into a legit juryo candidate as he beat strong Takakoyama with yorikiri. He will face compatriot Aran on day 8 in another interesting bout. Minami suffered his first loss this basho at the hands of former juryo Kanbayashi.

Great. Another caucasian/european in the upper ranks. Just what we need. (Sign of disapproval...)

Trust me here, Amuru is very different.

[Gusoyama]

The third highest ranked rikishi at 3-0 already is Russian Amuru who seems to have transformed into a legit juryo candidate as he beat strong Takakoyama with yorikiri. He will face compatriot Aran on day 8 in another interesting bout. Minami suffered his first loss this basho at the hands of former juryo Kanbayashi.

Great. Another caucasian/european in the upper ranks. Just what we need. (Sign of disapproval...)

Trust me here, Amuru is very different.

I'll believe it when I see it, but at least there's hope. Or hope for hope.

[Doitsuyama]

I'll believe it when I see it, but at least there's hope. Or hope for hope.

Well, Amuru certainly is more grounded in the lower divisions. He joined Ozumo in the same basho as Roho and Hakurozan did, but was mostly a sandanme presence since then. Then he is built even more slender than Hoshihikari (while Hoshihikari is 182/106.2, Amuru is 192/104.5) with very athletic arms - the women will love him. The bouts I have seen from him so far were "good" sumo, seeking wins instead of avoiding losses. Finally, his heya seems to have a good mix of veterans and upcoming talents - veterans like Katayama and Furuichi and talents like Wakakoyu, Fujimoto, Kurosawa and Terashita.

[aderechelsea]

Amuuru is a great rikishi ... not much of a winner in the past but with good sumo as Doitsuyama mentioned. He probably matured some more, like Hoshihikari, and he is finally ready for greater things.

The women will love him indeed if they are into well toned bodies. Amuuru has by far the best body (tone-wise) in Sumo ....

[Fay]

As I said two days ago, it's really a pleasure to watch Amuru fighting, you can't compare him at all with our ossetian friends.

[Jakusotsu]

Looks like Takanoyama's twin brother. Let's see if he has more success in the upper ranks.

Edited January 18, 2008 by Jakusotsu

[Asashosakari]

Courtesy of sekihiryu's vidcapping, there are several Amuru bouts in the Hatsu and Haru 2007 archives at banzuke.com. And thanks to extensive webstream availability back in the day, also several bouts from Aki 2005. Well worth rewatching, even if obviously a far cry from his current skill level. Body type hasn't changed much, at any rate. (Sign of disapproval...)

I sure didn't expect him to ever amount to more than mid-makushita fodder, but if he's really turned a corner and is now competitive at his current ranking, I'd definitely approve.

[Asashosakari]

Incidentally, since one of those bouts is Amuru easily manhandling Orora (whoops, spoiled that one (Sign of disapproval...)), anybody surprised that Orora is 0-3 in makushita this basho? Yeah, me neither.

[ilovesumo]

I'll believe it when I see it, but at least there's hope. Or hope for hope.

Well, Amuru certainly is more grounded in the lower divisions. He joined Ozumo in the same basho as Roho and Hakurozan did, but was mostly a sandanme presence since then. Then he is built even more slender than Hoshihikari (while Hoshihikari is 182/106.2, Amuru is 192/104.5) with very athletic arms - the women will love him. The bouts I have seen from him so far were "good" sumo, seeking wins instead of avoiding losses. Finally, his heya seems to have a good mix of veterans and upcoming talents - veterans like Katayama and Furuichi and talents like Wakakoyu, Fujimoto, Kurosawa and Terashita.

He is good, but he can't do the butcher-Sumo-style which made others climb up... ;-)

Was he a Judoka? He should be....

It's not Amuru's world but he is able to reach Juryo. Some need far longer then others, some unexpected Rikishi reach it... (Yoshiazuma in mind)

"more slender than Hoshihikari"-yes. But the real difference is the style and here Hoshi has a natural advantage. He can change his grip, push,pull...-actions very fast. Faster then the others. Great Sumo instinct.

(ok, I shut up (Sign of disapproval...) )

[Bealzbob]

Hokutokuni could feasibly have achieved juryo promotion today. The last 3 to get 4 wins from that rank went up. Winning against juryo opposition wont have gone unnoticed either I imagine. Although I appreciate that if he was to finish 4-3 from this position it wouldn't look too hot, but still, the precedent is there.

In fact, looking back at 4-3 records from Ms3, historically if you finish 4-3 with a 1-2 final 3 days they tend not to let you up but anything better than that gets up. So it seems that with this borderline KK, it is the momentum of the last few days that will get you promotion.

He could (and probably will) make all of this moot with a 5th win though.

Edited January 19, 2008 by Bealzbob

[Asashosakari]

Hokutokuni could feasibly have achieved juryo promotion today.

I doubt it. I know you were posting this before the Day 7 bouts brought up the rest of makushita-joi to four bouts, but the way things look now it's highly likely that 4-3 would leave Hokutokuni with only the fifth-best record, if that.

In fact, looking back at 4-3 records from Ms3, historically if you finish 4-3 with a 1-2 final 3 days they tend not to let you up but anything better than that gets up. So it seems that with this borderline KK, it is the momentum of the last few days that will get you promotion.

I think that pattern is either coincidence, or at most it's because losses at the end often mean that you were losing against exactly those rikishi who were jockeying for position with you in the promotion queue. I strongly doubt there's any direct causal link between "finishing 1-2" and "not being let up".

[Bealzbob]

you were losing against exactly those rikishi who were jockeying for position with you in the promotion queue. I strongly doubt there's any direct causal link between "finishing 1-2" and "not being let up".

I think you contradicted yourself slightly there. If finishing poorly is as a direct result of losing to those 'in the hunt' then we could both deduce that there is in fact a definite correlation between finishing poorly and not being let up. Perhaps not solely based on the numbers involved, but the scenario's surrounding the poor numbers. I'd never thought of it that way but your explanation has added some definite credence to the theory (Sign of approval...).

[Asashosakari]

I think you contradicted yourself slightly there. If finishing poorly is as a direct result of losing to those 'in the hunt' then we could both deduce that there is in fact a definite correlation between finishing poorly and not being let up. Perhaps not solely based on the numbers involved, but the scenario's surrounding the poor numbers. I'd never thought of it that way but your explanation has added some definite credence to the theory (Sign of approval...).

I said "direct" causal link for a reason. 1-2 might leave a rikishi in a disadvantageous position compared to his banzuke peers, but he's failing to get promoted because of that disadvantageous position, not because he went 1-2. Somebody who goes from 1-3 to 4-3 but still finds himself in an equally disadvantageous position wouldn't be getting promoted either. At least that's my opinion based on what I've observed; as I said I strongly doubt that win-loss pattern in themselves have any direct consequences for somebody's promotion chances.

Actually, I'm pretty disillusioned to that possibility even when it looks like it "ought to" count...take e.g. an bout between a J11w 6-8 and a Ms3w 3-3, which the makushita rikishi wins. I used to consider that a true exchange bout with promotion as the likely reward for the makushita rikishi. Turns out the banzuke makers are currently quite reluctant to consider such "earned promotions" as, after all, J11w 6-9 is still good enough to stay (if barely).

[Bealzbob]

I said "direct" causal link for a reason. 1-2 might leave a rikishi in a disadvantageous position compared to his banzuke peers

I think the point I'm making is that if you go into the final 3 days at 3-1 then you are likely going to face others in the promotion race, so by losing 1-2 you are giving 2 wins to direct rivals, so as I alluded to in an earlier post it is not just the win/loss numbers but where the 2 losses went that don't get you up. But ostensibly as a front runner finishing poorly you don't go up but finishing strongly you might - because the WINS are then accrued against promotion chasing rivals.

but he's failing to get promoted because of that disadvantageous position, not because he went 1-2.

I think that given the way the torikumi is decided, the 2 are inextricably linked.

[Asashosakari]

I think that given the way the torikumi is decided, the 2 are inextricably linked.

Well, rank differences do matter. Ms3e 4-3 will get promotion preference over Ms5w 5-2, even if the 4-3 guy lost his last bout against the 5-2 guy. The "link" is that the promotion zone is only five ranks long and one win generally equates to two ranks, so it's more likely than not that the rikishi in a direct matchup are close enough that the outcome matters. But that goes for any matchup, not just those during the final days.

And in fact, the number of bouts between rikishi who are very close on the banzuke decreases, the longer the basho is going on, because a) the records are more spread out (e.g. after 3 bouts there are only four possible results, after 6 bouts there are seven), so there's a lower probability that neighboring rikishi have the same record, and b) the matchups may already have happened earlier in the basho. That's at least part of the reason why most promotion zone 3-3 and 4-2 rikishi will be set against juryo opponents for their final bout - the only alternative would frequently be to match them against Ms8 or lower.

Also, note that I wrote "at most it's because losses at the end often mean that you were losing against exactly those rikishi who were jockeying for position with you", because I really wasn't convinced of my own argument there; I just needed something more than "it's all coincidence" for that post. (Sign of approval...)

Edited January 19, 2008 by Asashosakari

[Bealzbob]

No probs. Good chat. I like the mathematical complexities involved with something that is ostensibly very simple.