The Ama train

[Kintamayama]

Ama is on an Ozeki run. Two consecutive 10-win bashos at Komusubi, and going strictly by numbers, he needs 13 wins to make the minimum requirement. Not an easy task. He has a cold and a 38 degrees C fever, but had 23 bouts yesterday against Aminishiki and Mongolian Moukonami from Tatsunami beya who came for degeiko. "I thought of going to the hospital and getting a drip, but decided to do keiko, and seeing Hakuhou may be coming over tomorrow to train, I'll overcome that cold with my fighting spirit", he said. "I can only go out there and do my best. If the results follow, great..", he declared.

[bulsara]

Ama has not managed more than 11 wins while being in Makuuchi for 13 bashos. We could talk about "ozeki run", but realistically I cannot see it... not before he can win 12 matches during any of 2008 tournaments.

[higginbotham]

And before September he never had had more than a bare kachikoshi at Sanyuaku but he has come from two double digits basho, thus it would not be a very great surprise if he managed to improve his record against maegashira rikishi and make it to ozeki in the near future - July, May or even March

[Washuyama]

It's not like he HAS to make the 13 wins in Hatsu... As long as he maintains the 10-5 pace (I know, easier said than done,) he will be open for an Ozeki try. Who's to say, he won't go 10-5 every basho in 2008 and all of a sudden, pull out a couple great performances to give him the final push early in 2009.

[messi19]

I like your way of thinking! Very unlikely he'll get the 13 wins in Hatsu, but with steady improvement perhaps by mid-year he'll be alternating 11 and 10 victories, by the end of the year consistently scoring 11 and thus slowly getting promotion within range of possibility.

[Stephanoshima]

Ama is on an Ozeki run. Two consecutive 10-win bashos at Komusubi,

...in which Asashoryu did not not participate, thus saving Ama from two near-certain losses.

[higginbotham]

But he will face a possibly wrecked Chiyotaikai in January, having a chance to "compensate"

[Chisaiyama]

But he will face a possibly wrecked Chiyotaikai in January, having a chance to "compensate"

Not to mention an age debilitated Kaio, a knee weakened Kotooshu, and Kotomitsuki recovering from

gall bladder surgery. Of the 4 Ozeki only Kotomitsuki really stands any chance at all if Ama is in top

form.

Although Kintamayama has reported that he (Ama, not Kinta) is suffering a cold and fever currently.

[kaiguma]

Ama is on an Ozeki run. Two consecutive 10-win bashos at Komusubi,

...in which Asashoryu did not not participate, thus saving Ama from two near-certain losses.

You might have also considered Ama's last two bouts against yusho-winning Hakuho to be near-certain losses. Coming into Aki basho Ama was 0-7 against Hakuho. So we have no idea if his vigorous performances would have given him what it takes to beat Asashoryu again (and again).

If if if. If Asa had been participating, he would have been under severe stress due to public outcry after the jungyo, and possibly still sporting the double injured back and elbow, so we have no idea if he would have performed at his best in September.

I'm not saying Ama was clearly slated to beat Asa, only that we never will know. Any assumption that these would have been near-certain outcomes is utter speculation.

[HenryK]

Ama is on an Ozeki run. Two consecutive 10-win bashos at Komusubi,

...in which Asashoryu did not not participate, thus saving Ama from two near-certain losses.

You might have also considered Ama's last two bouts against yusho-winning Hakuho to be near-certain losses. Coming into Aki basho Ama was 0-7 against Hakuho. So we have no idea if his vigorous performances would have given him what it takes to beat Asashoryu again (and again).

If if if. If Asa had been participating, he would have been under severe stress due to public outcry after the jungyo, and possibly still sporting the double injured back and elbow, so we have no idea if he would have performed at his best in September.

I'm not saying Ama was clearly slated to beat Asa, only that we never will know. Any assumption that these would have been near-certain outcomes is utter speculation.

Any statement about an event that did not happen is necessarily speculation. This said, given Ama's and Asa's record against one another thus far, it is perfectly reasonably to assume that Ama would have been likely to lose.

[ilovesumo]

I like your way of thinking! Very unlikely he'll get the 13 wins in Hatsu, but with steady improvement perhaps by mid-year he'll be alternating 11 and 10 victories, by the end of the year consistently scoring 11 and thus slowly getting promotion within range of possibility.

Hm...

He will have his chance. He will. It might take some time but he will. forget the stats, that's Sumo... (sorry, I don't wanna make statistic gurus angry, but we are not talking about Chiyotaikai etc. here) and, that's Ama. He tries hard to impress the Japanese -

and he does. I mean, just think of his cold. He just tries to forget about it and works on- that's the japanese way, no? In a big bout he can give it all...dangerous but he gives it- and often he wins. Pushed by his own (and his fan's) hopes and expectations. Everything can happen. He showed often enough that he is able to beat everybody if he can beat himself.

He is the idol of Hoshihikari (To me Hoshi's Sumo looks better)

Ama has some inner power, kinda magic....that will lead him to the Ozeki-rank.

[philafuji]

I like Ama.

The problem I see with him (IMO) is that he is very unprectible.

He seems at times to win bouts you wouldn'think he would and loses bouts you think he would win. This isn't a once in a while thing either.

For this reason I don't think he will become an Ozeki.

I will be glad to eat my words if he proves me wrong.

[kaiguma]

Ama is on an Ozeki run. Two consecutive 10-win bashos at Komusubi,

...in which Asashoryu did not not participate, thus saving Ama from two near-certain losses.

You might have also considered Ama's last two bouts against yusho-winning Hakuho to be near-certain losses. Coming into Aki basho Ama was 0-7 against Hakuho. So we have no idea if his vigorous performances would have given him what it takes to beat Asashoryu again (and again).

If if if. If Asa had been participating, he would have been under severe stress due to public outcry after the jungyo, and possibly still sporting the double injured back and elbow, so we have no idea if he would have performed at his best in September.

I'm not saying Ama was clearly slated to beat Asa, only that we never will know. Any assumption that these would have been near-certain outcomes is utter speculation.

Any statement about an event that did not happen is necessarily speculation. This said, given Ama's and Asa's record against one another thus far, it is perfectly reasonably to assume that Ama would have been likely to lose.

Perfectly reasonable and absolutely pointless. Just as it would have been perfectly reasonable to assume Ama would lose (near-certainly) to Hakuho these past basho. Perfectly reasonable and completely wrong.

As we see again and again, these records can change quite suddenly when a rikishi pushes himself to a new plateau, or the other begins his descent. If Ama was ready to suddenly start beating Hakuho he may well have been ready to beat Asashoryu. This is not predictable like Math or Science. Asa's absence does not overshadow Ama winning 10 back-to-back.

Edited December 31, 2007 by kaiguma

[HenryK]

Ama is on an Ozeki run. Two consecutive 10-win bashos at Komusubi,

...in which Asashoryu did not not participate, thus saving Ama from two near-certain losses.

You might have also considered Ama's last two bouts against yusho-winning Hakuho to be near-certain losses. Coming into Aki basho Ama was 0-7 against Hakuho. So we have no idea if his vigorous performances would have given him what it takes to beat Asashoryu again (and again).

If if if. If Asa had been participating, he would have been under severe stress due to public outcry after the jungyo, and possibly still sporting the double injured back and elbow, so we have no idea if he would have performed at his best in September.

I'm not saying Ama was clearly slated to beat Asa, only that we never will know. Any assumption that these would have been near-certain outcomes is utter speculation.

Any statement about an event that did not happen is necessarily speculation. This said, given Ama's and Asa's record against one another thus far, it is perfectly reasonably to assume that Ama would have been likely to lose.

Perfectly reasonable and absolutely pointless. Just as it would have been perfectly reasonable to assume Ama would lose (near-certainly) to Hakuho these past basho. Perfectly reasonable and completely wrong.

As we see again and again, these records can change quite suddenly when a rikishi pushes himself to a new plateau, or the other begins his descent. If Ama was ready to suddenly start beating Hakuho he may well have been ready to beat Asashoryu. This is not predictable like Math or Science. Asa's absence does not overshadow Ama winning 10 back-to-back.

Hmmmm. Why don't you back this up with some stats about the likelihood of rikishi A beating rikishi B, when A is 0-9 versus B in the last 9 fights. If your line of arguing holds water, the likelihood shouldn't be too different from 50 percent. If Stephanoshima is right though, it should be close to 0 percent.

I offer you a little wager: 25 plus likelihood for fighter A and I take everything back and state the opposite. Obviously I expect the same from you in the reverse case. Up to it?

Edited December 31, 2007 by HenryK

[kaiguma]

Any statement about an event that did not happen is necessarily speculation. This said, given Ama's and Asa's record against one another thus far, it is perfectly reasonably to assume that Ama would have been likely to lose.

Perfectly reasonable and absolutely pointless. Just as it would have been perfectly reasonable to assume Ama would lose (near-certainly) to Hakuho these past basho. Perfectly reasonable and completely wrong.

As we see again and again, these records can change quite suddenly when a rikishi pushes himself to a new plateau, or the other begins his descent. If Ama was ready to suddenly start beating Hakuho he may well have been ready to beat Asashoryu. This is not predictable like Math or Science. Asa's absence does not overshadow Ama winning 10 back-to-back.

Hmmmm. Why don't you back this up with some stats about the likelihood of rikishi A beating rikishi B, when A is 0-9 versus B in the last 9 fights. If your line of arguing holds water, the likelihood shouldn't be too different from 50 percent. If Stephanoshima is right though, it should be close to 0 percent.

I offer you a little wager: 25 plus likelihood for fighter A and I take everything back and state the opposite. Obviously I expect the same from you in the reverse case. Up to it?

All I really need to do is draw attention to the bold portions above, to highlight that you have missed my argument entirely. I don't care about statistical analysis, which is irrelevant to this discussion. Statistics are accurate because they are drawn from huge sample sizes. When predicting the outcome of something that never happened, we are in effect limiting our sample size to '1' or 'near 1' and therefore unpredictable using statistics as a model. This is precisely the reason (mathematically) that unexpected variations occurs naturally and perhaps more frequently than you would expect. Doitsuyama's strength ratings would do a better job predicting the outcome than head-to-head records, simply because it is attempting to accurately assign value to a rikishi qualitatively and holistically by compiling all bouts in his career, against varied opponents. Refilter. Rinse. Repeat.

Doitsuyama-san, what would you guess was Ama's chance of defeating Asashoryu in Aki 2007?

And HenryK, here is another statistical analysis for you >>>

No one has ever received an ozeki promotion starting at Komusubi with a 10-5 record followed by another 10-5 record at another Sanyaku rank (Komusubi or Sekiwake). This includes ozeki runs longer than 3 basho, of which there have so far been none at all. Ama is now only the third to attempt this particular feat since the introduction of 15-bout tournaments. So by your rigid assessment of statistics, Ama's chance of winning 13 bouts to become ozeki is "near 0%." Also, he's never won 13 bouts in one basho, so here we have "near 0%" from another angle. Both of these are just twisted logic, IMHO.

No one knows right here and now if he has what it takes to storm through the basho like Dan Akroyd in Big Black sunglasses. I believe there is no way to accurately assess what are his "true odds" of getting the 13 wins. Maybe Doitsuyama could use his ingenious Ratings and come close to a reasonable percentage. Even if there were a way to do so, it could not be tested without watching Hatsu basho start over from scratch 100 times in a vaccuum. Sadly (?) we have no means for doing so.

[HenryK]

Any statement about an event that did not happen is necessarily speculation. This said, given Ama's and Asa's record against one another thus far, it is perfectly reasonably to assume that Ama would have been likely to lose.

Perfectly reasonable and absolutely pointless. Just as it would have been perfectly reasonable to assume Ama would lose (near-certainly) to Hakuho these past basho. Perfectly reasonable and completely wrong.

As we see again and again, these records can change quite suddenly when a rikishi pushes himself to a new plateau, or the other begins his descent. If Ama was ready to suddenly start beating Hakuho he may well have been ready to beat Asashoryu. This is not predictable like Math or Science. Asa's absence does not overshadow Ama winning 10 back-to-back.

Hmmmm. Why don't you back this up with some stats about the likelihood of rikishi A beating rikishi B, when A is 0-9 versus B in the last 9 fights. If your line of arguing holds water, the likelihood shouldn't be too different from 50 percent. If Stephanoshima is right though, it should be close to 0 percent.

I offer you a little wager: 25 plus likelihood for fighter A and I take everything back and state the opposite. Obviously I expect the same from you in the reverse case. Up to it?

All I really need to do is draw attention to the bold portions above, to highlight that you have missed my argument entirely. I don't care about statistical analysis, which is irrelevant to this discussion. Statistics are accurate because they are drawn from huge sample sizes. When predicting the outcome of something that never happened, we are in effect limiting our sample size to '1' or 'near 1' and therefore unpredictable using statistics as a model. This is precisely the reason (mathematically) that unexpected variations occurs naturally and perhaps more frequently than you would expect. Doitsuyama's strength ratings would do a better job predicting the outcome than head-to-head records, simply because it is attempting to accurately assign value to a rikishi qualitatively and holistically by compiling all bouts in his career, against varied opponents. Refilter. Rinse. Repeat.

Doitsuyama-san, what would you guess was Ama's chance of defeating Asashoryu in Aki 2007?

And HenryK, here is another statistical analysis for you >>>

No one has ever received an ozeki promotion starting at Komusubi with a 10-5 record followed by another 10-5 record at another Sanyaku rank (Komusubi or Sekiwake). This includes ozeki runs longer than 3 basho, of which there have so far been none at all. Ama is now only the third to attempt this particular feat since the introduction of 15-bout tournaments. So by your rigid assessment of statistics, Ama's chance of winning 13 bouts to become ozeki is "near 0%." Also, he's never won 13 bouts in one basho, so here we have "near 0%" from another angle. Both of these are just twisted logic, IMHO.

No one knows right here and now if he has what it takes to storm through the basho like Dan Akroyd in Big Black sunglasses. I believe there is no way to accurately assess what are his "true odds" of getting the 13 wins. Maybe Doitsuyama could use his ingenious Ratings and come close to a reasonable percentage. Even if there were a way to do so, it could not be tested without watching Hatsu basho start over from scratch 100 times in a vaccuum. Sadly (?) we have no means for doing so.

Not exactly sure how to read your response. At times you seem to say that outcomes of fights are totally unpredictable -- as if every fight would be 50-50 ex-ante. This would of course be absurd.

I agree that there are crucial issues, and you are right that one is sample size. Now what is the sample size of "rikishi pairs who met 10 times in a row, and where the score of first nine fights has been 9-0"? I don't know; but as fight #10 has a binomial outcome, and from 20-30 observations the binomial converges to the normal distribution, this is the size one needs for reasonably acurate assessments. I guess one could compile such a sample succesfully.

Another argument is that fighters' direct record against one another may not be all that matters -- recent records against other opponents, age and experience etc. might also help predict future outcomes. One can control for these factors and test which ones matter and which don't. I'd be extremely surprised though if two rikishis' past record against one another would not matter at all, or be only a minor factor. And it seems to me that only then would you have refuted Stephanoshima's claim.

As for Ama's chances to make 13-2 and get to Ozeki -- well, one would need to compile a sample of all two subsequent 10-5 scores at Sanyaku and see how large that is. Again, 20-30 observations would be needed at least to engage in meaningful statistical analysis. The odds to obtain such a sample are probably not great -- in which case we could say precious little about Ama's expected success in the upcoming basho.

Btw, where can I find Doitsuyama strenght ratings? Like you I greatly appreciate his work.

[Asashosakari]

No one knows right here and now if he has what it takes to storm through the basho like Dan Akroyd in Big Black sunglasses. I believe there is no way to accurately assess what are his "true odds" of getting the 13 wins. Maybe Doitsuyama could use his ingenious Ratings and come close to a reasonable percentage.

FWIW, if I didn't screw up the math too badly, Ama's probability for 13+ wins is about 2.1%, based on the Hatsu ratings for him and his highest-ranked potential 15 opponents. An early withdrawal by a high-ranking opponent would affect that a bit, of course...replacing Hakuho with Asasekiryu (Ama's #16 opponent) the calculated probability just about doubles.

Take with the usual grain of salt, of course. But I'd say 5% or so is probably a good estimate for Ama's chances, even if one believes that he's better than the ratings indicate.

On a related note...does anybody who saw Kaiketsu back in the 70s have an opinion on how he compares to Ama? He seems pretty similar physically (of course, 128 kg got you more mileage in makuuchi than it does nowadays), and the kimarite distribution looks somewhat like Ama's too.

[Asojima]

On a related note...does anybody who saw Kaiketsu back in the 70s have an opinion on how he compares to Ama? He seems pretty similar physically (of course, 128 kg got you more mileage in makuuchi than it does nowadays), and the kimarite distribution looks somewhat like Ama's too.

I remember Kaiketsu and Hasegawa as roughly the equivalent of the Ama/Aminishiki pair of today. They were both dangerous contenders for the Yokozunas and Ozekis. Both had a well-rounded set of techniques and both were aggressive fighters. Ama would be very close to Kaiketsu, and Ami without a bum knee would be very close to Hasegawa.

[Kintamayama]

Ama is going all out in training. He had 38 bouts today against Aminishiki and Asoufuji. 15 with Aminishiki, 23 with Asoufuji. After the moshiai, Isegahama Oyakata demanded some butsugari. This heya has been training the most among heyas. They had only 2 days off- New Years day and the 2nd. At the soken, Ama was the only one to engage one of the Yokozuna (Asashouryuu) in the middle of the battle of the titans. No Ozeki attempted to do that..

He is on an Ozeki run and even Isegahama Oyakata said "The next Ozeki is one of my boys!". Still, it's a tall order/high hurdle/ long shot. He needs 33 wins in three bashos, so he needs 13 this time. But all the latest Ozeki needed 34 wins. Miyabiyama even won 34 and was denied in Nagoya 2005. "I'm not even thinking of a post-Hatsu promotion", said Ama himself. When Miyabiyama attempted his promotion, there were already 5 Ozeki. Maybe this time around if Ama goes all out, he may have a "present" waiting for him.

[HenryK]

Ama is going all out in training. He had 38 bouts today against Aminishiki and Asoufuji. 15 with Aminishiki, 23 with Asoufuji. After the moshiai, Isegahama Oyakata demanded some butsugari. This heya has been training the most among heyas. They had only 2 days off- New Years day and the 2nd. At the soken, Ama was the only one to engage one of the Yokozuna (Asashouryuu) in the middle of the battle of the titans. No Ozeki attempted to do that..

He is on an Ozeki run and even Isegahama Oyakata said "The next Ozeki is one of my boys!". Still, it's a tall order/high hurdle/ long shot. He needs 33 wins in three bashos, so he needs 13 this time. But all the latest Ozeki needed 34 wins. Miyabiyama even won 34 and was denied in Nagoya 2005. "I'm not even thinking of a post-Hatsu promotion", said Ama himself. When Miyabiyama attempted his promotion, there were already 5 Ozeki. Maybe this time around if Ama goes all out, he may have a "present" waiting for him.

I don't think they should tighten Ozeki promotion standards any further. 33 it is, and 33 should do. They were pretty rough with Miyabiyama at the time.

This said, 13-2 with both Yokozunas injury free and motivated is a tall order.

[kaiguma]

Ama is going all out in training. He had 38 bouts today against Aminishiki and Asoufuji. 15 with Aminishiki, 23 with Asoufuji. After the moshiai, Isegahama Oyakata demanded some butsugari. This heya has been training the most among heyas. They had only 2 days off- New Years day and the 2nd. At the soken, Ama was the only one to engage one of the Yokozuna (Asashouryuu) in the middle of the battle of the titans. No Ozeki attempted to do that..

He is on an Ozeki run and even Isegahama Oyakata said "The next Ozeki is one of my boys!". Still, it's a tall order/high hurdle/ long shot. He needs 33 wins in three bashos, so he needs 13 this time. But all the latest Ozeki needed 34 wins. Miyabiyama even won 34 and was denied in Nagoya 2005. "I'm not even thinking of a post-Hatsu promotion", said Ama himself. When Miyabiyama attempted his promotion, there were already 5 Ozeki. Maybe this time around if Ama goes all out, he may have a "present" waiting for him.

I don't think they should tighten Ozeki promotion standards any further. 33 it is, and 33 should do. They were pretty rough with Miyabiyama at the time.

This said, 13-2 with both Yokozunas injury free and motivated is a tall order.

Everyone should know by now Miyabiyama was denied with 34 because he ended with a 9. If Ama has 10/10/13, which would likely be JY, Ama would not be denied the rank.

Now do I think it will happen? No, I believe he will extend the Ozeki run to next basho with 11 wins. (Sign of approval...)

[Otokonoyama]

I don't think they should tighten Ozeki promotion standards any further. 33 it is, and 33 should do. They were pretty rough with Miyabiyama at the time.

This said, 13-2 with both Yokozunas injury free and motivated is a tall order.

From Wikipedia:

Promotion to ōzeki

The promotion of a wrestler to ōzeki is a multi-tournament process. A wrestler at the rank of sekiwake will be considered for promotion if he has achieved a total of at least 30 wins over the three most recent tournaments, including 10 or more wins in the tournament just completed. Promotion is discretionary and there are no hard-and-fast rules, though a three-tournament record of 33 wins is considered a near-guarantee. Other factors toward promotion will include tangibles such as winning a tournament or defeating yokozuna, as well as the rikishi's overall consistency, prowess, and quality of sumo - for example, a record of illegal maneuvers or reliance on certain dodging techniques would count against the dignity expected of an ōzeki.

Promotions are recommended by the Judging Division to the Board of Directors of the Japan Sumo Association. If it is a first promotion to the rank a member of the Board of Directors will formally visit the wrestler's stable to inform the new ōzeki of his promotion. The ōzeki will usually make a speech on this occasion promising to do his best to uphold the dignity of the rank.

Edited January 10, 2008 by Otokonoyama

[Asashosakari]

Everyone should know by now Miyabiyama was denied with 34 because he ended with a 9.

10/14/10...

[Kintamayama]

Everyone should know by now Miyabiyama was denied with 34 because he ended with a 9.

10/14/10...

I think, generally speaking of course, that someone or other mentioned, IIRC, that the number of the third basho wins should exceed the one before that. I'm pretty sure it's pretty much a given, although etc. etc..

[Asashosakari]

I think, generally speaking of course, that someone or other mentioned, IIRC, that the number of the third basho wins should exceed the one before that. I'm pretty sure it's pretty much a given, although etc. etc..

Well, it's kinda hard to top 14 wins. :-) And having the strongest result in the middle basho certainly isn't a straight disqualifier (Kaio 8/14/11). My favourite pet theory remains that Miya was penalized for twice missing the 11-win mark in his run, and since he didn't exactly capitalize on his second shot (turning 10/14/10 into 14/10/9, which I'm guessing is what kaiguma was thinking of), well... Anyway, the most straight-forward explanation is probably still "he had sucked at ozeki once already, and there were five others anyway". Who knows.

Anyway, I think I'm going to expect a single-digit kachikoshi for Ama this basho.

Edit: And one more Miya bit...in both ozeki-tori basho he started badly and only improved his record at the end (2006 Nagoya 5-5 -> 10-5, 2006 Aki 5-6 -> 9-6). I don't think that helped either, though of course nine wins wasn't going to cut it anyway.

Edited January 10, 2008 by Asashosakari