The next Ozeki

[HenryK]

Who is gonna make it next? Ama, Asasekiryu, Goeido, Baruto, or someone else?

My take: Ama.

Edited November 16, 2007 by HenryK

[aderechelsea]

Kyokushuho ... (Blushing...)

and "none of the above" ....

[Jakusotsu]

Kotooshu

[aderechelsea]

Kotooshu

that one doesn't count ....

he will always be Ozeki Kotooshu. No new numbering for him ... (Blushing...)

[Azumashida]

Goeido hopefully, the most spectacular and IMHO most promising of the young Japanese talents. Hope this won't jinx his superb run so far this basho...

[XiaoTan]

I'd also go for Kotooshu - why doesn't he count - i wouldn't be surprised, if due to the knee we get's demoted to Sekiwake in 2008.

[Guest Chankoyama]

Goeido

[Andreas]

If kotooshu gets demoted(possible, but not likely), its not guaranteed that he will be promoted again like tochiazuma used to... In my opinion, the current kotooshu doesnt look as good as tochiazuma in his later career.

[kaiguma]

I'd love it to be Ama . . .

problem is so far this basho he can only beat ozeki and no one else (and now Homasho on day 7)

[Gernobono]

i am not quite sure if he will be the next ozeki, but i am sure he will be ozeki once:

Toyonoshima

[Xris]

Ama should be the next Ozeki, taking the place of Kaio. But he should clearly improve his score with makuuchi, otherwise he will have an earlier Kotomitsuki :-)

[Bealzbob]

At least Ama's problem can be overcome. He can beat the top guys. Many can't. He just needs to stay motivated against the rank and file. I would say only Toyonoshima, and possibly Goeido, will give him trouble in the remainder of Kyushu.

[Kaikitsune Makoto]

At least Ama's problem can be overcome. He can beat the top guys. Many can't. He just needs to stay motivated against the rank and file. I would say only Toyonoshima, and possibly Goeido, will give him trouble in the remainder of Kyushu.

Many can. INteresting you point out Toyonoshima as probably the only one giving him trouble although he faces Kisenosato, Dejima and Tenku, all against whom he definitely has problems while Toyonoshima is a rikishi he usually beats without any real problems. Staying motivated isn't enough for Ama to beat rank and filers.

[Bealzbob]

An 11-4 will send him into Hatsu with 21 wins from 2 basho. History has shown that any sanyaku rikishi who has gone 10-5 in basho 1 then 11-4 in basho 2 and managed >9 wins in basho 3 has never failed to get ozeki rank. Now I'm not suggesting a 10-5 in Hatsu would do it, because it woudn't, but 11-4 would certainly get them talking. It has happened before

[aderechelsea]

guys guys ... i am one of the biggest Toyonoshima fans around here but come on !!! Ozeki? ... ozeki? naaaaahhh ......

he is on a good roll and he has the ability to win against most other rikishi if the bout goes the way he planned it .. BUT, he cannot win against most sanyaku consistently and this is the biggest criteria when it comes to ozeki promotions.

do you want a small list of his head-to-head records against the current sanyaku/sanyaku prespects in the last 2 years?

Ama 0-7

Aminishiki 2-4

Asasekiryu 2-3

Asashoryu 0-3

Baruto 0-1

Chiyotaikai 2-0 (his only "customer")

Dejima 4-3

Hakuho 1-3

Homasho 3-2

Kaio 0-2

Kisenosato 1-4

Kotomitsuki 2-3

Kotooshu 2-2

Kotoshogiku 1-4

Kyokutenho 0-3

Hakurozan 0-4 (i included this to make a point that if you have a negative record against Rozan in the last 2 years then you cannot become Ozeki ... simple as that)

[Washuyama]

Hakurozan 0-4 (i included this to make a point that if you have a negative record against Rozan in the last 2 years then you cannot become Ozeki ... simple as that)

I think the NSK needs to include this rule!

[Bealzbob]

Adere, we're on about Ama, not Toyo.

[aderechelsea]

my response was towards Gernobono's comment

[Bealzbob]

OK, it's just when used the plural 'guys guys' it sounded like you were responding to a discussion, not to one person's suggestion.

[Kintamayama]

An 11-4 will send him into Hatsu with 21 wins from 2 basho. History has shown that any sanyaku rikishi who has gone 10-5 in basho 1 then 11-4 in basho 2 and managed >9 wins in basho 3 has never failed to get ozeki rank. Now I'm not suggesting a 10-5 in Hatsu would do it, because it woudn't, but 11-4 would certainly get them talking. It has happened before

No way in hell he gets promoted to Ozeki with 30 wins over 3 basho, regardless of precedence in the distance past. 33 wins is the norm, and that is a big question mark too lately. Please show us where " History has shown that any sanyaku rikishi who has gone 10-5 in basho 1 then 11-4 in basho 2 and managed >9 wins in basho 3 has never failed to get ozeki rank." Not in the last years for sure. The one example you gave is from 1967 with Kotozakura, who had 32 wins overall. If anything, when a guy on the run has less wins in his third basho than on his second, it usually denies him the promotion, even with 34 wins.. For Ama to make Ozeki, he'd need at least 12 wins in Hatsu, assuming he gets 11 wins this basho. At least. His first basho of the run at Komusubi won't make it much easier.

[Washuyama]

Even 34 wins isn't always enough as Miyabiyama showed us last year. He went K: 10-5; S: 14-1; S: 10-5 without promotion. I think at least an 11-4 in that third basho is the crucial one.

[Bealzbob]

Now I'm not suggesting a 10-5 in Hatsu would do it, because it woudn't, but 11-4 would certainly get them talking.

No way in hell he gets promoted to Ozeki with 30 wins over 3 basho,

Where did I say he'd get in with 30. I never said that. I said 10 followed by 11 followed by >9 which is at the very least 31 and in all likelyhood probably going to need 32.

Please show us where " History has shown that any sanyaku rikishi who has gone 10-5 in basho 1 then 11-4 in basho 2 and managed >9 wins in basho 3 has never failed to get ozeki rank."

Here. A 10 followed by an 11 followed by anything over 9 has always, without fail, resulted in ozeki promotion. The results will show that the 3rd basho has in reality always been >10 rather than >9 but the fact remains and I've left an important point quoted by me at the top of this post.

If anything, when a guy on the run has less wins in his third basho than on his second, it usually denies him the promotion, even with 34 wins

Totally agree.

For Ama to make Ozeki, he'd need at least 12 wins in Hatsu, assuming he gets 11 wins this basho. At least. His first basho of the run at Komusubi won't make it much easier.

You might be right that he will probably need a 12 in Hatsu to be sure, but even a run of 10,11,11 would make them talk about it ... as there is precedent.

Edited November 18, 2007 by Bealzbob

[Doitsuyama]

You might be right that he will probably need a 12 in Hatsu to be sure, but even a run of 10,11,11 would make them talk about it ... as there is precedent.

By and large you may be on to something, but believe me, a run of 10,11,11 will cause no promotion talk whatsoever except how many wins in Haru are needed.

[Kintamayama]

Here. A 10 followed by an 11 followed by anything over 9 has always, without fail, resulted in ozeki promotion. The results will show that the 3rd basho has in reality always been >10 rather than >9 but the fact remains and I've left an important point quoted by me at the top of this post.

That point is moot these days, because these numbers are irrelevant for the present. It's a 33 win minimum, whatever the database says. And of all those that qualified, only 1 made it with 11 wins in his third basho, and that was 1967. All the rest, regardless, needed 12. So I'd say >11, not >9. In any case, as Doitsuyama said before me, there will be no talk whatsoever of a promotion unless he gets at least 12. And he still needs to get those 11 you have so generously given him this basho already..

You might be right that he will probably need a 12 in Hatsu to be sure, but even a run of 10,11,11 would make them talk about it ... as there is precedent.

Again, taking numbers at their face value without considering the times is wrong at best. Rest assured, anything under 32 will not even be discussed. This reminds me of the "no need for back to back yusho at Ozeki to become yokozuna because Futahaguro /Whoever did that in 1944" argument that some members bring up regularly. Criteria DOES change in promotion and demotion rules, and quoting stats using the awesome database without considering the present situation is, again, wrong and misleading. There is no way Ama will be promoted with 32 wins.

Edited November 18, 2007 by Kintamayama

[Asashosakari]

What Kinta and Doitsuyama said. Any ozeki promotion from before 1970 or so is useless in predicting what they will do today, because the standards just aren't the same anymore. Actually, there are borderline decisions well into the 1980s that wouldn't happen these days (Masuiyama with 8-7 -> 11-4 -> 12-3J comes to mind).

I dare say the absolute minimum required these days remains what Chiyotaikai did, namely 32 wins with a yusho at the end of the run. And even that promotion was pretty controversial at the time, IIRC.

Edit: All ozeki debuts since 1945. I really do recommend taking a look at the scores that got rikishi promoted in the 1950s and 1960s.

Edited November 18, 2007 by Asashosakari