Azuma: I am thinking of the "Unthinkable."

[madorosumaru]

As a result of losing to Kotooshu on Day 13 and assuring his make-koshi, Ozeki Tochiazuma will face his eighth kadoban in Osaka. "My knee is still a bit shaky," he told the press. "You know, I haven't really been able to do much keiko, so I'm even a bit surprised that I lasted this long."

He stuck through this basho despite the pain and the frustrations so that he could keep his sumo sense alive. Haru Basho is going to be the critical battle. "What am I going to do if he fell from ozeki?" Azuma asked himself rhetorically. "I have no intention of continuing if that happens."

When he was demoted to sekiwake in '04 Nagoya and '05 Hatsu, he made it back to ozeki by winning 10 in each basho. But this time is different. He wants to retire as an ozeki. "There is only one thing in my mind. It's either a matter of life or death," he said resolutely. "I have to approach it with that kind of intensity."

His father, the shisho, supports him but is also resigned: "If that's how strongly he feels. Well, he is at that point [of his life and career]."

[Iwagakki]

I think we are in for a year of changes.

Tochiazuma's body is so torn apart, I am amazed that he has gone this long. He won't be around in 2008, I think.

Kaio is not doing good keiko, and is losing a lot of muscle in the last 2 years. A LOT. He's still stonger than anyone, but time is not on his side. Now he is talking about being the "gatekeeper" . It is not a role that suits him, and it won't satisfy him. I think a loss of drive, and a bit of some contentment outside the dohyo is the end of the Tsuna, and Kaio is finally there. I hoped so much that we see one more solid run at the tsuna out of him this year, but we won't.

Tosanoumi is losing his shine, a little bit more than last year.

many of our guys are on the north side of 30.

In sumo that is like being 65. Eligible for social security.

Tochi is "only" 30, but an old 30, even for a rikishi. He will be happy to be a young man again when he is Oyakata.

Kaio is 34. He will be a fine young man again, when he is oyakata, too.

Taikai and Mickey are not so old as Tochi , even though they are the same age.

Miyabiyama is getting older now too. He was younger last basho, and felt "indian summer" . Maybe not anymore.

'Zakura's are not getting any younger. Younger brother is soon 33. They are too fun to intai though.

Otsukasa looks slightly fresher than "use by" date, but still is fading fast.

Edited January 22, 2007 by Iwagakki

[Asashosakari]

Otsukasa looks slightly fresher than "use by" date, but still is fading fast.

Heathen! (First prize...) Otsu has had that fading look for close to four years now, but somehow he, Kobo and Tamakasuga (object of my Worst Prediction Ever*) manage to keep it up without much change in performance. Otsu's back in Juryo now, but I wouldn't bet against him returning to Makuuchi yet again before the year is over.

* I confidently predicted "intai before the end of the year" when he followed up on a disappointing 8-7 as J2e in Haru 2004 with an 0-7 start in Natsu. Egg, meet face.

But I agree with you that some big changes at the top of the banzuke look quite likely now. Kaio is but a shell of his old self, and Tochi has only two more years to go anyway. Even Chiyo is probably just one big-gish injury away from intai. He managed to hang on ever so barely in 2004/05 when he basically couldn't do any decent thrusting for several tournaments, I don't think he'd manage that nowadays.

[kaiguma]

(First prize...) Mado-san, that is the scariest thread title I have ever witnessed in my short life.

However, with his strain of determination (First prize...) I'm confident Tochiazuma-zeki will be back at 85% by Haru basho.

[sumofan]

Sure, he can limp along for another 1 or 2 basho, just like Kaio.

But there is something to be said for ending in glory and moving on.

3 years ago, Kaio's Sumo was beautiful. Especially I he could get hold of an arm or wrist.

These days his sumo is rather sad.

I have never seen Tochi at his peak, but his moment has come and gone.

Just my 2 ct.

[Kotoseiya Yuichi]

Kaio has been "limping" ever since 1772 if we are to believe the doommongers. (That's probably not a proper word.) Keep on predicting his demise. Eventually you'll be right, perhaps at your 119th try. Then you can pat each other in the backs and proudly claim "We said so. We said so! Didn't we said so?!?! The guy retires. We knew it!"

And I'm not even a proper fan of his...

[sumofan]

Kaio has been "limping" ever since 1772 if we are to believe the doommongers. (That's probably not a proper word.) Keep on predicting his demise. Eventually you'll be right, perhaps at your 119th try. Then you can pat each other in the backs and proudly claim "We said so. We said so! Didn't we said so?!?! The guy retires. We knew it!"

And I'm not even a proper fan of his...

Actually, I have not been saying this for a long time.

2 years ago, Kaio got DD in every basho, won a yusho and several JunYusho, and had 2 or 3 tsuna runs.

He regularly launched opponents out of the dohyo as if they weighed nothing.

These days he has a lot of trouble even getting KK, and jojos in and out of kadoban.

He cannot do serious keiko anymore, and has troubles just getting by.

I did not say that he cannot survive one more basho. He might do just that.

But I do think that it would be better to end in beauty, instead of waiting for the inevitable fall to sekiwake.

[SalParadise]

Ending in beauty would have been retiring after doing well in Kyushu, in front of his hometown fans, to some people. To others it would be fighting until he can't compete around sanyaku. To others it would be quitting when he feels the need to. Personally I thought he would retire in Fukuoka last year, and in Nagoya last year, and...

...but whenever he does it, doesn't matter much to me. His sumo record and marvelous bouts will stand no matter what condition he's in when he retires.

[Jakusotsu]

These days he has a lot of trouble even getting KK, and jojos in and out of kadoban.

That observation doesn't really fit with the facts (at least the jojo part):

Basho	Record
Haru'06	8-7
Natsu'06	9-6
Nagoya'06	9-6
Aki'06	1-6-8
Kyushu'06	10-5
Hatsu'07	8-7

[Hananotaka]

I think Kaio's gonna go out like Akebono.

[ilovesumo]

I think Kaio's gonna go out like Akebono.

How do you mean that? Rolling on the floor in K1?

SURE not.

[Doitsuyama]

I think Kaio's gonna go out like Akebono.

How do you mean that? Rolling on the floor in K1?

SURE not.

Why, going out with a yusho, of course.

[rhino]

I think Kaio's gonna go out like Akebono.

How do you mean that? Rolling on the floor in K1?

SURE not.

Why, going out with a yusho, of course.

Surely he means going out with a yusho and ranked at East Yokozuna

It could happen!

Back on topic though, I'll be sad to see Tochiazuma retire, whenever it happens. I think he has great dignity and a good attitude. It's just a shame he competed in this basho so soon after surgery when KK was surely never on the cards, although I guess that comes with the fighting spirit. I just hope this doesn't bring about his retirement prematurely.

[Kaikitsune Makoto]

Tochiazuma skill is so amazing that he can surely have a long career still if his knee heals well by Haru. Then he will easily escape kadoban. Azuma has had many problems with his injuries but at the moment he looks still like a superb rikishi. Arthroscopy to move some cartilage chips and polish the damaged menisci is not a major surgery but it can mess up the "kankaku" (sense, feeling of the knee) so that it truly feels like someone else's knee. This is what he repeatedly said in his interviews this basho. He doesn't look like his knee would give away but putting full pressure on it can't work yet and fast reactions to stabilize his big body doesn't work either. Good example of the problem was his loss to Kotooshu. He would never lose from such position and to such throw if he had his usual footwork.

When Azuma's shoulder was the biggest problem, it looked much more like intai-bound state. Now it looks like he could well recover and be a major obstacle for Hakuho, Kotooshu, Kisenosato, Shogun, Homasho etc. for even 2-3 years more. I don't believe in Azuma's retirement in 2007 at all. Much more probable seems KaioU's intai simply because he is losing the ability to catch up to his fast foes. Then again he did have excellent bouts too like the one against Kotomitsuki where he moved well and the one against Roho where he showed his glorious moves. It is sad though that all veteran ozeki are so burdened with injuries. The only wrinkle in otherwise super strong makuuchi competition.