Persistence Watch

[Asashosakari]

The fact that Ishii defeated Akatsuki doesn't bode well for the latter's future either.

Akatsuki has had an interesting torikumi so far. Sugishita and Ishii on the one hand, and Ri and Yamamotoyama on the other...

Edit: BTW, Akatsuki has now had bouts on four days in a row. I don't think I've seen that before in the lower divisions.

Edited March 17, 2007 by Asashosakari

[Jonosuke]

Both Asaamami and Kida are still in banzuke-gai.

Though I wonder about those guys as well as someone like Hariya of Michinoku are still around in their heya.

It's awful long time to be away.

Edit: According to Takasago beya blog, Asaamami was one of the five lead pack of Takasago rikishis headed to Osaka on February 18 so he cannot be that sick.

The other four members were Ichinoya, Minanosato, Asakubo and Daigonishiki.

Edited March 17, 2007 by Jonosuke

[Asashosakari]

A bit late, but here's the Nakabi update:

Shikona	Heya	Debut	MK	Current Rank	Highest Rank	Record	Win%	Last Basho	This Basho
Morikawa	Otake	Natsu 2003	22	Jonokuchi 23 East	Jonokuchi 5	32-123-3	0.206	2-5	1-3
Daishiryu	Kise	Haru 2004	17	Jonokuchi 22 East	Jonokuchi 1	29-90-4	0.244	2-5	0-0-4
Ishii	Magaki	Haru 2004	17	Jonokuchi 35 East	Jonidan 133	23-100	0.187	0-7	2-2
Iwanaga	Michinoku	Haru 2005	11	Jonokuchi 22 West	Jonokuchi 7	19-62	0.235	2-5	0-4
Yamamoto	Naruto	Haru 2005	9	Jonokuchi 21 East	Jonokuchi 2	22-45-7	0.328	3-4	2-2
Wakahizen	Hanakago	Haru 2006	5	Jonokuchi 16 East	Jonokuchi 16	14-25	0.359	3-4	2-2
Kotoyamaguchi	Sadogatake	Haru 2006	5	Jonokuchi 19 West	Jonokuchi 15	12-27	0.308	2-5	2-2
Tsunehikari	Nishikido	Haru 2006	5	Jonokuchi 23 West	Jonokuchi 20	13-22-4	0.371	2-5	1-3
Sugishita	Naruto	Haru 2006	5	Jonokuchi 35 West	Jonokuchi 30	1-38	0.026	0-7	0-4
Kida	Arashio	Haru 2005	5	Banzuke-gai	Jonokuchi 19	12-17-13	0.414	---	---
Tateishi	Dewanoumi	Natsu 2006	4	Jonokuchi 17 East	Jonokuchi 17	9-23	0.281	3-4	1-3
Higashi	Shikoroyama	Natsu 2006	4	Jonokuchi 25 West	Jonokuchi 20	7-25	0.219	1-6	1-3
Kanai	Michinoku	Nagoya 2005	4	Jonokuchi 26 West	Jonokuchi 24	8-24-7	0.250	1-6	1-3
Asaamami	Takasago	Haru 2005	3	Banzuke-gai	Jonokuchi 26	7-10-11	0.412	---	---

Not quite as good as last basho, when we had two rikishi at 3-1 after the first week. However, hope strings eternal and with four rikishi even at 2-2, there is still a good chance for at least one kachi-koshi. Probably the biggest surprise here is Ishii who has two nakabi wins for only the second time in his career (following Morikawa who experienced the same d

Edited March 18, 2007 by Asashosakari

[aderechelsea]

Probably the biggest surprise here is Ishii who has two nakabi wins for only the second time in his career

Not so much of a surprise. The invisible factor is probably the fact that his shisho is in hospital. As I said in another thread the intensity of all Magaki rikishi is probably increased by that fact.

i know this thoery sounds appealing but let's not forget that his 2 wins were against the legendary Sugishita (1-38 career) and the new guy Akatsuki who had the worse results in mae-zumo last basho

[1] Minami	   [2] Yamamotoyama [3] Ri		   [4] Aran
3 o Aran		 3 o Ri		   3 x Yamamotoyama 3 x Minami
4 o Kato		 4 o Kato		 4 o Hatodanriki  4 o Hatodanriki
5 o Ri		   5 o Aran		 5 o Kato		 5 o Hatodanriki
							  5 x Minami	   5 x Yamamotoyama
							  5 o Aran		 5 x Ri

[5] Kato		 [6] Hatodanriki  [7] [b]Akatsuki	 [/b][-]Kajitani
3 o Hatodanriki  3 x Kato		 3 -			  3 -
4 x Yamamotoyama 4 x Ri		   4 -			  4 -
4 x Minami	   4 x Aran		 5 x Hatodanriki  5 -
5 x Ri		   5 o Akatsuki
			 5 x Aran

[aderechelsea]

True but it's not like we are talking about Taiho here. Ishii is 23-100 with 17 straight MK tournaments. If he does manage somehow to get two more wins I'm definitely going to give him some congratulatory present!

That you do, and i can send him something too, but the reason of my post was to disconnect the wins with the fact that Magaki Oyakata was hospitalised. After all Ishii's 1st win was on day 1, two days before the incident (Whatever above, it is funny...)

[aderechelsea]

To support my argument, Akatsuki just lost to "club member" Higashi, so you can see how tough it is to beat him. The new guy is giving away "freebies" ...

.

.

.

anyway, back to the subject:

Morikawa lost again and got his 23rd MK.

Yamamoto entered the "Dai-persistent club" since he lost today and got his 10th MK.

As Asashosakari predicted, Wakahizen moved one step closer to his first KK witha win today and a 3-2 overall record.

[Asashosakari]

Yamamoto entered the "Dai-persistent club" since he lost today and got his 10th MK.

Erm, he was 2-2 before today. (Whatever above, it is funny...)

[aderechelsea]

Yamamoto entered the "Dai-persistent club" since he lost today and got his 10th MK.

Erm, he was 2-2 before today. ;-)

"time-machine effect" .... (Blushing...)

just came back from the future and forgot that you didn't actually see his 4th defeat like i did .... :-P

btw ... Higashi beat Akatsuki for his 2nd win of the basho (2-3).

Akatsuki is officially on persistence-watch.

[Asashosakari]

As Asashosakari predicted, Wakahizen moved one step closer to his first KK witha win today and a 3-2 overall record.

And he's the only one, as the other three guys at 2-2 all lost (Yamamoto tomorrow yesterday (Annoyed...) and Ishii and Kotoyamaguchi today).

Make-koshi for Tateishi who seems bent on continuing his good-bad series (1-6, 3-4, 1-6, 3-4), while Kanai staves off the same courtesy of a win over Sugishita. Tsunehikari also goes to 2-3 with a win.

[aderechelsea]

Higashi and Ishii lost on day 11 and will be on the list at least one more basho.

Wakahizen missed the chance for KK today but still hopes to get the elusive 4th win on his final bout.

[Asashosakari]

In post-persistence news, our two KK'ers from last basho (Omori and Iwasa) met in Jonidan today - Omori won to go to 2-4.

[Asashosakari]

Bah, I forgot to post a Day 12 update. (Sign of disapproval...) Anyway, we've had three rikishi at 3-3 and still able to reach kachi-koshi, but two of them already blew it today on Day 13, namely Tsunehikari and Yamamoto. Evidently aderechelsea's time machine works. (Shaking head...) Tsunehikari had come back from 1-3 while Yamamoto was 2-1 at one point. Pretty disappointing for the latter one, but he does get the dai-persistence title for his troubles.

Wakahizen is the last guy standing and faces Terasawa (13-22 with one 4-3 kachi-koshi in five prior basho) tomorrow with KK on the line.

Sugishita: 0-7. 'Nuff said. One can only hope there'll be at least one guy in the new shindeshi class that's even weaker than him.

(Incidentally, perhaps the worst-possible record one can have this basho as a low Jonokuchi is 1-6, as that will probably place you right next to the strongest incoming shindeshi. So maybe the 0-7 was a strategically smart decision here.)

Edit: Oh, and of course 3-4 will likely be good enough for a promotion to Jonidan this basho (possibly even 2-5 for the ones ranked around Jk20), so there's that, at least.

Edited March 23, 2007 by Asashosakari

[aderechelsea]

(Neener, neener...) (Holiday feeling...)

Morikawa fans rejoice !!!!!

he got a 3rd win during a honbasho for the first time in his career. No KK of course, but we saw a beam of light in the horizon.

Akatsuki (his opponent) is officially a hot prospect for joining this list.

Wakahizen lost his chance for a first career KK. 3-4 his final record

[Jonosuke]

Sugishita: 0-7. 'Nuff said. One can only hope there'll be at least one guy in the new shindeshi class that's even weaker than him.

I think his fortune will turn around the next basho with a throng of 15 year olds with absolutely no sumo experience and more feeble build than him.

He will likely come across an opponent who will trip himself without any assistance.

Or at least a fusen win.

Edited March 24, 2007 by Jonosuke

[Asashosakari]

Akatsuki (his opponent) is officially a hot prospect for joining this list.

He's only second in line though. There's also Otokoyama who has gone 3-4 for the second time since his debut, both times losing his final bout. He's probably ticketed for the list now, considering he'll be up in Jonidan in May and likely get his third MK there.

(FWIW, those two are the only ones I'm left to track from the previous two shindeshi classes. Everybody else achieved KK in their first basho, is already retired, or banzuke-gai. And now, for the 70+ new guys...)

[Asashosakari]

No, I didn't forget to wrap up the basho. (Pulling hair...) For various reasons that will become clear in a moment, I wanted to wait for the publication of the retirement list. Anyway, here we go:

Shikona	Heya	Debut	MK	Current Rank	Highest Rank	Record	Win%	Last Basho	This Basho
Morikawa	Otake	Natsu 2003	23	Jonokuchi 23 East	Jonokuchi 5	34-124-3	0.215	2-5	3-4
Ishii	Magaki	Haru 2004	18	Jonokuchi 35 East	Jonidan 133	24-102	0.190	0-7	3-4
Daishiryu	Kise	Haru 2004	17	Jonokuchi 22 East	Jonokuchi 1	29-90-7	0.244	2-5	0-0-7
Iwanaga	Michinoku	Haru 2005	12	Jonokuchi 22 West	Jonokuchi 7	20-64	0.238	2-5	1-6
Yamamoto	Naruto	Haru 2005	10	Jonokuchi 21 East	Jonokuchi 2	23-47-7	0.329	3-4	3-4
Wakahizen	Hanakago	Haru 2006	6	Jonokuchi 16 East	Jonokuchi 16	15-27	0.357	3-4	3-4
Kotoyamaguchi	Sadogatake	Haru 2006	6	Jonokuchi 19 West	Jonokuchi 15	13-29	0.310	2-5	3-4
Tsunehikari	Nishikido	Haru 2006	6	Jonokuchi 23 West	Jonokuchi 20	15-23-4	0.395	2-5	3-4
Sugishita	Naruto	Haru 2006	6	Jonokuchi 35 West	Jonokuchi 30	1-41	0.024	0-7	0-7
Kida	Arashio	Haru 2005	5	Banzuke-gai	Jonokuchi 19	12-17-13	0.414	---	---
Tateishi	Dewanoumi	Natsu 2006	5	Jonokuchi 17 East	Jonokuchi 17	9-26	0.257	3-4	1-6
Higashi	Shikoroyama	Natsu 2006	5	Jonokuchi 25 West	Jonokuchi 20	8-27	0.229	1-6	2-5
Kanai	Michinoku	Nagoya 2005	5	Jonokuchi 26 West	Jonokuchi 24	9-26-7	0.257	1-6	2-5
Asaamami	Takasago	Haru 2005	3	Banzuke-gai	Jonokuchi 26	7-10-11	0.412	---	---

As already reported in bits and pieces above, none of our squad managed to reach kachi-koshi in Osaka. We do, however, have an abundance of 3-4 records. More than half of the active guys (6 out of 11) fell just short of a winning record, and with the incoming shindeshi class that means lucky promotions all the way up to Jonidan for most of them. Ironically enough, according to my back-of-the-envelope calculations the only 3-4'er likely to miss out due to a too-low rank is Ishii, who is currently the only one of our 14 club members who already got to smell Jonidan air before. Some 2-5 Jonokuchi rikishi may also find themselves in Jonidan next basho, but our two representatives Higashi and Kanai probably won't be among them, also being ranked too low this time.

At any rate, as already alluded to a couple of posts above, Natsu is likely to be a tough basho for our crew, what with some of them competing in Jonidan and the others (except Sugishita) likely seeing plenty of action against the strongest of the shindeshi class.

In other news, fresh on the heels of his very first three-win basho Morikawa is coming up on his MK-quadrennial which may be significant for an additional reason - research is currently underway, more about it closer to Natsu basho. (Pulling hair...)

We're also back to five ongoing 10+ MK streaks with Yamamoto the newest arrival, albeit with a winning percentage that's almost a third higher than that of the next-best Top-Fiver, and with consecutive 3-4 records as the clincher. One suspects he won't be hanging around for much longer, although it'll probably take at least two basho for all the strong(ish) shindeshi to bubble out of Jonokuchi and leave only potential future list members, so perhaps a realistic target date for Yamamoto's first kachi-koshi will be Aki basho. (Hmm, now that I've written that, that factor may explain why half of the currently active ex-streakers had their first, streak-ending KK in an Aki basho...) Fellow 10+ guy Daishiryu was absent this basho but has not retired, and we'll have to see if/when he makes his return to active competition.

The aggregated Week Two record was a respectable 11-22 (.333), or 6-17 (.261) after adjusting for inevitable outcomes, which is tons better than the previous three weeks this year which all hovered around .150 only. In fact, it's the first week that wins against outside competition have outnumbered wins in internal bouts (by 6 to 5; previous splits 5/12, 4/8, and 4/9). As always, here's the full list of wins:

Day 10: Jk26w  Kanai (2-3)		 oshidashi	  Jk35w  Sugishita (0-5)
	Jk23w  Tsunehikari (2-3)   abisetaoshi	Jk35e  Ishii (2-3)
Day 11: Jk23e  Morikawa (2-4)	  uwatedashinage Jk22w  Iwanaga (1-5)
	Jk23w  Tsunehikari (3-3)   yorikiri	   Jk19w  Kotoyamaguchi (2-4)
Day 15: Jk35e  Ishii (3-4)		 yorikiri	   Jk26w  Kanai (2-5)

Day 9:  Jk25w  Higashi (2-3)	   yorikiri	   Jk36e  Akatsuki (1-4)
	Jk16e  Wakahizen (3-2)	 yorikiri	   Jk19e  Fukukasuga (2-3)
Day 10: Jk22w  Iwanaga (1-4)	   hikiotoshi	 Jk16w  Akinosato (0-5)
Day 12: Jk21e  Yamamoto (3-3)	  hikiotoshi	 Jk19e  Fukukasuga (2-4)
Day 14: Jk23e  Morikawa (3-4)	  shitatenage	Jk36e  Akatsuki (2-5)
Day 15: Jk19w  Kotoyamaguchi (3-4) uwatenage	  Jk18e  Daikosei (2-5)

Very colourful kimarite (comparatively anyway) to go along with the increased winning percentage.

Anyway, that's all for this basho, back with more (Censored...) stuff in about six weeks when we're back in the Kokugikan. (Pulling hair...)

[Jonosuke]

I expect Morioka to get his Kachikoshi next basho as I heard from some unreliable source that he has grown competitive at his current level.

Both Higashi and Kanai have been improving a litttle by little so in a couple of bashos, they may be in place to get Kachikoshi.

The last few bashos I have been looking at the intain list fully expecting to see Sugishita's name but he obvously does not want to give up being our mascot boy.

Akatsuki cannot be too far away before he can join the list.

[Kintamayama]

I expect Morioka to get his Kachikoshi next basho as I heard from some unreliable source that he has grown competitive at his current level.

Probably will, in pachinko,or arm-wrestling, or hot-dog eating, since he's retired..

[Oimeru]

Just looking at the table there and at first I was confused by the winning % column. Why have you moved the dot two places? Is that like baseball? If so it wouldn't still be called % would it? For example 0.024 for Sugishita doesn't seem as simple or as easy to read as 2.4% to me.

It's just percentage sign abuse. I propose calling it per-un-age. (Chucking salt...)

I'm still rooting for Tateishi. He listed Kinkaiyama as his role model and was the only guy in his shindeshi class to like maths. I hope he graduates from the persistence watch one day.

Edited March 28, 2007 by Oimeru

[Asashosakari]

Just looking at the table there and at first I was confused by the winning % column. Why have you moved the dot two places? Is that like baseball? If so it wouldn't still be called % would it? For example 0.024 for Sugishita doesn't seem as simple or as easy to read as 2.4% to me.

It's just percentage sign abuse.

Yeah, pretty much. I could just as easily retitle the column header "WinR" for winning ratio, but that would presumably cause even more questions than using the percentage sign as a shorthand. Anyway, the perunage (heh) values will stay, for two reasons: 1) It doesn't require me to mess with the table cell alignment when copying over from Excel because the number of digits is always the same, and 2) I do find it easier to read this way (I'm actually tempted to drop the leading zero, even), but then I was a math major in high school and admittedly I'm used to seeing numbers expressed this way from baseball...

[Asashosakari]

Promote Me Baby One More Time: Jonokuchi shenanigans, the Jonidan edition.

Shikona	Heya	Debut	MK	Current Rank	Highest Rank	Record	Win%	Last Basho
Morikawa	Otake	Natsu 2003	23	Jonidan 132 West	Jonidan 132	34-124-3	0.215	3-4
Ishii	Magaki	Haru 2004	18	Jonidan 135 West	Jonidan 133	24-102	0.190	3-4
Daishiryu	Kise	Haru 2004	17	Banzuke-gai	Jonokuchi 1	29-90-7	0.244	0-0-7
Iwanaga	Michinoku	Haru 2005	12	Jonokuchi 6 East	Jonokuchi 6	20-64	0.238	1-6
Yamamoto	Naruto	Haru 2005	10	Jonidan 132 East	Jonidan 132	23-47-7	0.329	3-4
Wakahizen	Hanakago	Haru 2006	6	Jonidan 127 West	Jonidan 127	15-27	0.357	3-4
Kotoyamaguchi	Sadogatake	Haru 2006	6	Jonidan 128 West	Jonidan 128	13-29	0.310	3-4
Tsunehikari	Nishikido	Haru 2006	6	Jonidan 133 East	Jonidan 133	15-23-4	0.395	3-4
Sugishita	Naruto	Haru 2006	6	Jonokuchi 43 West	Jonokuchi 30	1-41	0.024	0-7
Higashi	Shikoroyama	Natsu 2006	5	Jonokuchi 4 East	Jonokuchi 4	8-27	0.229	2-5
Kanai	Michinoku	Nagoya 2005	5	Jonokuchi 4 West	Jonokuchi 4	9-26-7	0.257	2-5
Tateishi	Dewanoumi	Natsu 2006	5	Jonokuchi 5 West	Jonokuchi 5	9-26	0.257	1-6
Asaamami	Takasago	Haru 2005	3	Banzuke-gai	Jonokuchi 26	7-10-11	0.412	---

First off, we say goodbye to Kida, who finally decided to hang it up last basho after 5 MK and a year spent banzuke-gai. With nobody joining the club this basho we're currently at 13 rikishi, 10 of whom will be starting this tournament. I certainly hope it's not the end of the line for banzuke-gai dai-persister Daishiryu and kyujo cult favourite Sugishita and we'll see both of them again soon.

Turns out I was off by one in my napkin banzuke calculation, or rather the banzuke makers were in a more jovial mood than I expected - even the lowest-ranking 3-4 rikishi from Haru basho managed to grab a spot in Jonidan, and as it happens he's a club member in Ishii. It's not a debut for him thanks to similar banzuke luck two years ago, but five others including Morikawa do celebrate their Jonidan debuts this basho. Let's hope it's not all downhill from here... The two 2-5 rikishi Higashi and Kanai failed to make the Jonidan cut as expected, but they're close enough to the top of Jonokuchi (as are 1-6 Tateishi and Iwanaga) that they just might see action against fellow club members in Jonidan.

On with the basho!

Edited May 27, 2007 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari]

On with the basho!

Nope, one more thing first. :-D In case anyone is reading this stuff, you may recall my saying this in the last wrap-up:

Morikawa is coming up on his MK-quadrennial which may be significant for an additional reason

And indeed it is, as it turns out that another make-koshi will make him the all-Heisei leader:

[table]

Shikona

Heya

Debut

MK

Current Rank

Highest Rank

1st KK

Dai Record

Post-Dai Record

Overall Record

[tr][th=1]<

[aderechelsea]

whatever we root for, Morikawa needs all the luck in the world to get a KK.

i vote he gets the record ....

[Doitsuyama]

I say Morikawa already is the all-Heisei leader, as Arikado's hatsu dohyo was in Showa, as was his Jonokuchi debut.

[Asashosakari]

I say Morikawa already is the all-Heisei leader, as Arikado's hatsu dohyo was in Showa, as was his Jonokuchi debut.

All-Database leader, then. (Blushing...)