Juryo Division title winner?

[aderechelsea]

last input in the Baruto debate ....

he was lucky enough to drop down to Makushita and have his "recovery" basho there, and then from low Juryo blast through his opposition.

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as for the Yusho ... i guess Tochisakae proved my wrong for the 100th time in a row and won't do it this time either.

my money now on Jumonji or even Sumanofuji who have beaten some good opponents there (Wakanosato and Tamaasuka namely) and won't have to go to Makuuchi for any bouts.

ok now that i wrote that and thought about it .... chalk off Sumanofuji's name ... (what the hell was i thinking ???)

EDIT: Forgot to mention Wakanosato who is still the biggest favourite ....

Edited November 17, 2006 by aderechelsea

[Asashosakari]

Well, no matter what, he did something almost no one has done in the last 50 years, and there have been hundreds of different sceanarios for people, even future yokozunas to go through.

That's the thing about the recent foreign recruits...they tend to be older and more physically advanced compared to future yokozuna (and even more so compared to future ozeki or future sanyaku) of times past.

I think the best comparison to Baruto would probably be Miyabiyama, and he went 12-3Y, 14-1Y in Juryo...and with the second yusho coming at the top of the division, so his opponents were quite a bit stronger than Baruto's. (By Doitsuyama, the difference in average is 65 points, which is enough to drop the "zensho probability" from 9% to just 3% in my previous experiment.) Baruto's achievement was certainly outstanding, but the only way in which it was unparalleled was that he managed to avoid the one (possibly fluke) loss that several others didn't. Purely as a matter of dominance over the rest of the field, there have been others who were just as dominant in their yusho, they just didn't win 15.

When i mention current weakkness, its an ongoing thing, from barutos zensho until now. from before his zensho. The equality is really mind boggling.

I just don't think that it's all that unusual. As far as I can tell, there are three primary groups of rikishi who can be expected to do great things in Juryo: 1) Foreigners who are already too old for the level, 2) College rikishi with an upside of at least joi-jin, for the same reason, 3) Regular Makuuchi coming back from an injury fully healed.

Group 1 has dried up because the foreigner quota has drastically reduced the previously steady influx of strong talent, Group 2 hasn't been much to write about for whatever reason lately, and Group 3 has been killed off by the abolition of kosho (nobody's really completely healthy anymore when they make their comebacks).

So, the top of the field has been lopped off in most basho and been replaced by more run-of-the-mill rikishi. As a side-effect of that levelling of the competitive field, there also aren't many really weak rikishi right now. It used to be that you could count on one or two promotees from Makushita to fall back immediately with 10+ losses, or at worst in their second basho. Hokutoiwa, for example, just isn't a credible Juryo rikishi as far as I'm concerned, but because so many others are barely better than him, he has managed to hang on to the division for five basho now. (Not this basho though; 4-11 and back down toward the Ms20 area where he belongs.)

ANyone have any favorites so far to take juryo yusho? I dont think oga will make it. Wakanosato still the favorite for most of you?

With no *zakura in the running this time, I'm ambivalent on the question, but other than my previous pick Goeido, I'd probably go with Yoshikaze at this point. I didn't buy Wakanosato as a yusho favorite before the basho, and I don't now either.

Hey, maybe it'll be Sumanofuji. That would be a hell-freezes-over type of event. (Applauding...)

[Naganoyama]

Baruto's achievement WAS special, regardless of the quality of his 15 regular opponents.

There is always the 16th opponent that you have to face every day, yourself. To win 15 you have to eliminate all (or most) errors on your own part. (Some of course you get away with because your opponent can't capitalise).

You have to be very focused, really want to win and have a calm and confident (but not over-confident) mental state. Keeping that level up for 7 fights in 15 days is obviously doable since there are lower division rikishi doing it all the time. But just from the rarity of zenshos in the sekitori divisions, you can see that it is special. Even if you are fighting only moderate opposition, continuing lossless over 15 days is HARD.

[Asashosakari]

Keeping that level up for 7 fights in 15 days is obviously doable since there are lower division rikishi doing it all the time.

Bad analogy. (Applauding...) Somebody always has to go 7-0 in the lower divisions, just by the design of the torikumi.

[Naganoyama]

Keeping that level up for 7 fights in 15 days is obviously doable since there are lower division rikishi doing it all the time.

Bad analogy. (Applauding...) Somebody always has to go 7-0 in the lower divisions, just by the design of the torikumi.

Fair enough.

[Qijuryu]

Goeido lost his sekitori debut today. Wakanosato wins. Tochiozan wins. Oga wins vs. satoyama...i would have liked to see that rare "middleweight" sekitori bout.

you can see the bout here, but disappointing.......

Qijuryu

Edited November 17, 2006 by Qijuryu

[Tikozan]

It will become a very close decision in juryo.

Shunketsu 6-1 it's a surprise for me. But I think, he will not get the yusho.