Stephanoshima

Who would expect an Ozeki to retire after two consecutive MK?

The Japan Sumo Association Heavy hitters Feb 14th 2008 | TOKYO From The Economist print edition Scandal rocks the national sport http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displa...ory_id=10696234

...in which Asashoryu did not not participate, thus saving Ama from two near-certain losses.

To be exact, a 50-50 rikishi will achieve a 6-1 or 7-0 (or 1-6 or 0-7) basho with a probability of 6.25%. (Typing at computer...) So given the sheer number of rikishi, there will always be more than just a few significant aberrations.

Even The Economist picked up the story, even though the article offers nothing new and is more tabloid-style than one would expect from that newspaper. Sumo wrestling Heavy petting Oct 11th 2007 | TOKYO From The Economist print edition A gruesome death hits Japan's already ailing national sport http://economist.com/world/asia/displaysto...tory_id=9963190

He should leave Sumo and switch to K-1 or Puroresu. (Kimura Zatoichi...)

Ummm, right. Then the result should be: 68*(31/365.25)*(1-31/365.25)^67=1.515% (Laughing...)

In a similar way. The probability that there is some month with no birth in a given group of 42 people is the given by the classic probability definition: no. of favorable cases / total no. of cases. The total number of cases is, of course, 365 to the 42. The number of favorable cases is the sum of the numbers for individual months, i.e. 7 times the number for a 31 day month, 4 times the one for 30 a day month and one for february, numbers that are given in the post above. The final formula: 7*(334/365)^42 + 4*(335/365)^42 + (337/365)^42 Of course, this model isn't taking leap years into account. The result will vary slightly taking that into consideration. As an aside, I'm still waiting for Doitsuyama's method that yielded 2.6% for the 31 day months. P.S. Are any of you guys watching snooker? Shaun Murphy pulled of an incredible comeback against Matthew Stevens earlier today. He came back from 11-5 down to win 13-12. WOW! Edit: OOPS. I seem to know my math well, but I don't know how many 30-day months there are in a year. I was thinking along the lines of: p(at least one zero-birthday month)=1-p(no ZBM) p(no ZBM)=p(no ZB January)*p(no ZB February)*...*p(no ZB December) p(no ZBM)=p(no ZB 31-day month)^7*p(no ZB 30-day month)^4*p(no ZB 28.25-day month)^1 p(no ZBM)=(1-0.02411)^7*(1-0.02733)^4*(1-0.03401) p(no ZBM)=0.72884 p(at least one zero-birthday month)=1-p(no ZBM)=1-0.72884=0.27116 The strange thing is that I've run a little simulation for this, and its result is ~28.4% over enough runs to be sure that it's not just some random deviation from 27,1%, but a significant discrepancy. :-P. After some thinking, I have come to the conclusion that the simulation is correct because the formula is based on all those probabilities being perfectly independent of each other, which they aren't. Let's assume for a moment that there are only 11 rikishi. According to the formula, the probability of at least one ZBM is 99.7% (just believe me). However, since there are 11 birthdays and 12 months, it is intuitively clear that there always has to be at least one ZBM, hence the probability is exactly 100%.

2.411% is correct, (1-31/365.25)^42=0.02411 :-P But I wonder how you calculated the 36.691%. :-D

What about his 9-6 at the 2004 Aki Basho? He had won the previous four tournaments of the year, and had just had his wedding ceremony. If he really could manipulate the outcomes of all but a few bouts, why on earth would he choose to end up with such a mediocre record?

...and a bit like the Scarecrow as well (Singing drunk...) <{POST_SNAPBACK}> ...and a whole lot like the Tin Man, especially when he's walking.

I find the new icon for "Goto last unread" (if I am not mistaken, this should in fact take you to the FIRST unread message) too small. I think the old one was larger than 8*8 pixels; at any rate, I am having real problems with consistently clicking that icon on the first try.

In the case of Discworld, I do indeed recommed starting with the first ones, since the world (particularly when the Watch is concerned; this also seems to be TPs favorite set of characters) is evolving. At least one of the fansites ("The L-Space Web", I think) had, and probably still has, a nice "map" showing interconnections between the books and offering "entry points" for starters.

Kokkai as Ozeki seems highly doubtful to me. I just don't see what's supposedly so great about him, and I think his record will look a lot like Kotonowaka's: mostly mediocre bashos as Maegashira and probably a few short stints as Komosubi, maybe even Sekiwake.

"Simplicity is the result of maturity." - Friedrich von Schiller "Simplicity is the last step of art." - Bruce Lee

Without a doubt, E.Honda from Street Fighter II. If only because I don't know a single one of those on the list.

Actually, I think Akebono's chances of winning are better than in his previous fights. Under K-1 rules, he was only allowed to box (which he had absolutely no skill and experience in) and kick (dito), while all his Sumo-style moves were barred. As far as striking and particularly groundfighting are concerned, he will be completely outclassed against Gracie, no doubt about that. But Gracie is small and light, and even with all his skill (it's hard to judge how good he still is; his fights are few and far between, and his days of glory during the early UFCs were a decade ago), he won't be able to ground Akebono easily. Akebono, on the other hand, can finally use his "Sumo stuff", and even though many regard Sumo more as a stylized set of rituals than a bona fide martial art, a tachi-ai-style shoulder block can easily KO Gracie, especially since he's so light and probably quite unexperienced against this kind of move. Plus, Gracie usually wears a Gi, and that may give Akebono opportunity to grab him and toss him around, not to mention the discomfort to Gracie if Akebono should happen to drop on him. Ouch.

But doing a knee kick means, he will be coming very close to me. I: Have you seen the video of Bonjasky to study him? A: No I have not. That is rather obvious.

"I'd be flying like a butterfly and stinging like a bee to finish off Akebono as quickly as possible," Bonjasky said. I think Bonjasky will wear Akebono down methodically and only go for a KO towards the end of the third round. A quick KO won't do him any good in his preperations for december's GP Final, and he will probably try to use as much of his in-ring time left until then.

I really don't care about your opinion, and that's what it is, nothing more than an opinion, whatever you try to make it look like a fact. Too bad this forum doesn't have an Ignore List.

I am referring to his preferred choice of sumo techniques, not to the shape of his body.

I voted for Musoyama. Being an Asashoryu fan, Tochiazuma is the opponent I am most concerned about. He's one-dimensional, sure, but he's good at what he's doing. With Chiyotaikai and Kaio, I think it's more his weakness than their strength if he loses to them. If he's up against Musoyama, I can't see how he can lose unless he commits a major blunder.

"I really wanted to attack, but he was running all over the place, so I couldn't use all the stuff I practiced" I am convinced he would have won... ...if he his opponent had been a not-too-high stack of roof tiles. "This powerful technique shatters 15 tiles in an instant using the Sunkei technique!" "...he lowered his stance, lifted his right arm and after a moment of concentration- "HNN!!" the former Grand Champion grunted and destroyed all 15 tiles in one motion!" http://www.so-net.ne.jp/feg/k-1gp/b04_0628.htm "Boards don't fight back." - Bruce Lee (Laughing...) "Neither do roof tiles." - Stephanoshima :-D

Somehow he reminds me of Yoda. (Enjoying a beer...) OK, except for the ears. (Cheers...)

Then came the genkiest ever Musoyama who is ridiculing people who think he is ready for intai. Unfortunately, he is just as good at ridiculing people who think he's a contender for the next yusho after finishing strong in one basho.