chishafuwaku Posted March 5, 2015 Posted March 5, 2015 (edited) Hello everyone Welcome to the second edition of this game with NEW RULES, SIMPLE RULES Basically the goal is to predict the daily time in seconds of a single match regardless of the winner. I will use the numbers (rounded) post by Akinomaki (Hope you can continue provide us the data. Thank you in advance) Choice of the Daily Bout:Every day we choose the Bout with the Maegashira(day)EastSo, day1 with M1e, day2 with with M2e, and so on...If he cannot fight, we choose for the daily bout his ranking partner. (for example in day 6, bout with Kaisei instead of bout with Aminishiki)If this is not possible for the same reason, we will choose the sekitori with rank west above. M6w in the example, if not possible, M5w and so on...Fusen bouts: Our daily prediction applies to the alternative combat. RULES Every day you post here, in the forum, your prediction (in seconds) for the daily bout There´s no limitation to the number of times you use the same number (NEW) You should indicate which number do you want for a default bet (used when you cannot make your entry) (NEW). If you don´t, you lose that day. Default pick: max 5 times for absent daily bets (but not more than 3 days in a row) (NEW)Daily Victory:Every day, the differences between predictions and real bout time will be ordered. Then, the players will be divided into two groups: Smaller differences have daily victory Larger differences have daily defeat(Detailed way to find the two groups will be found in the following post) Yusho: Who has the most wins take it (Detailed way to resolve ties will be found in the following post) Sansho:(at least 8-7) Shukun-sho: Most bull-eyes. If tie, most one differences, if tie most two differences, if tie all win.Gino-sho: Smallest sum of all orders. If tie all win.Kanto-sho: Greatest average of orders (only days with victory), If tie all win Do not forget that this game will only exist as long as bout times are supplied by Akinomaki So one more reason to play Good luck to everyone chishafuwaku Edited March 5, 2015 by chishafuwaku
chishafuwaku Posted March 5, 2015 Author Posted March 5, 2015 (edited) DAILY VICTORY OR LOSS Use the median of the differences (ordered) EVEN NUMBER OF PLAYERS 1) All differences are not equal to the median Player Diff Result A 0 Win B 1 Win C 2 Win D 3 Loss E 4 Loss F 4 Loss Median 2,5 Difference smaller than median = WIN Difference higher than median = LOSS 2) Some differences equal to the median a) More differences higher than median Player Diff Result Result A 0 Win B 2 Win C 2 Win D 2 Win E 3 Loss F 4 Loss Median 2 Difference equal to the median = WIN b) More differences smaller than median Player Diff Result Result A 0 Win B 1 Win C 2 Loss D 2 Loss E 2 Loss F 4 Loss Median 2 Difference equal to the median = LOSS c) Differences higher than median = Differences smaller than median Player Diff Result Result A 0 Win B 1 Win C 2 ? D 2 ? E 3 Loss F 3 Loss Median 2 The first time this happens, we grant victory (KEY = 0, see below) We are left with one more victory than it should be (4 versus 3), for each pair of occurrences. Let us call this KEY. In this example KEY = 1 Next time, everyone will lose, but the new KEY = 1- number of pairs. In Short: Positive KEY = All loseKEY not positive = All Win ODD NUMBER OF PLAYERS 1) All differences are not equal to the median IMPOSSIBLE 2) Some differences equal to the median a) More differences higher than median Player Diff Result Result A 0 Win B 1 Win C 2 Win D 2 Win E 3 Loss F 4 Loss G 4 Loss Median 2 Difference equal to the median = WIN b) More differences smaller than median Player Diff Result Result A 0 Win B 0 Win C 1 Win D 2 Loss E 2 Loss F 3 Loss G 4 Loss Median 2 Difference equal to the median = LOSS c) Differences higher than median = Differences smaller than median Player Diff Result Result A 0 Win B 0 Win C 1 Win D 2 ? E 3 Loss F 4 Loss G 4 Loss Median 2 The first time this happens, we grant victory (KEY = 0) We are left with one more victory than loss (4 versus 3). New KEY = 1 If we had more ties, we are left with one more victory than loss plus one more victory than it should be If 3 ties (5 versus 2) we get KEY = 2 (1 + 1 pair of ocurrences) If 5 ties (6 versus 1) we get KEY = 3 (1 + 2 pairs of ocurrences) And so on... Next time, everyone will lose, but the new KEY = ancient KEY - ( 1+ number of pairs of occurrences). YUSHO TIE-BREAK 1) Higher standard deviation In this basho I will continue to choose the standard deviation, because this gives us a measure to see if the input values are more concentrated or more dispersed. A low standard deviation indicates that the data tend to be very close to the mean.A high standard deviation indicates that the data are spread out over a large range of values. This is to counter those who want to repeat daily entries and award the variability of bets. if tie (highly unlikely) than2) Higher Shukun3) Higher Gino4) Higher Kanto5) Higher Banzuke chishafuwaku Edited March 9, 2015 by chishafuwaku
chishafuwaku Posted March 5, 2015 Author Posted March 5, 2015 (edited) BANZUKE HARU 2015 EAST WESTTsukiko (13-2 YSG) M1 Mmikasazuma (12-3 J)chishafuwaku (10-5) M2 Tenshinhan (9-6)Ayagawa (9-6) M3 orandashoho (9-6)Profomisakari (9-6 K) M4 Senkoho (8-7)Ganzohnesushi (6-9) M5 Jakusotsu (6-9)kuroimori (5-10) M6 Andonishiki (5-10)shimodahito (5-10) M7 Susanoo (4-11)Shokikogi (4-7-4) M8 Wamahada (4-11) Green are registered. Thank you chishafuwaku Edited March 8, 2015 by chishafuwaku
chishafuwaku Posted March 5, 2015 Author Posted March 5, 2015 (edited) Final Standings: Shikona D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10 D11 D12 D13 D14 D15 SCORE Y_TIE chishafuwaku 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 11-4 1,552 Pitinosato 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 10-5 1,502 shimodahito 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10-5 1,407 kuroimori 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 9-6 3,089 Ayagawa 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 9-6 2,44 orandashoho 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 9-6 1,885 Jakusotsu 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 9-6 1,87 Shokikogi … 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 8-6-1 2,555 Profomisakari 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 8-7 1,897 ScreechingOwl 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 8-7 1,06 Chisaiyama 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 7-8 1,799 Taka 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 7-8 1,534 Pandaazuma 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 6-9 8,026 Susanoo 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 6-9 6,181 Achiyama 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 6-9 2,586 Holleshoryu 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 6-9 1,988 Senkoho 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6-9 1,457 Tenshinhan 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 5-10 1,915 Andonishiki 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 … … … … 0 … … … 3-5-7 2,722 Tsunamiko 0 1 0 1 1 0 … 0 0 … … … … … … 3-5-7 1,885 chishafuwaku Edited March 22, 2015 by chishafuwaku
chishafuwaku Posted March 5, 2015 Author Posted March 5, 2015 (edited) Sansho Standings: Shukun-sho: chishafuwaku and Pitinosato Gino-sho: chishafuwaku Kanto-sho: Jakusotsu chishafuwaku Edited March 22, 2015 by chishafuwaku
chishafuwaku Posted March 5, 2015 Author Posted March 5, 2015 (edited) Registration Shikona Default Bet 1 chishafuwaku 6 2 kuroimori 7 3 Profomisakari 8 4 orandashoho 6 5 Tenshinhan 9 6 Ayagawa 7 7 Jakusotsu 7 8 Senkoho 6 9 Taka 6 10 Pandaazuma 7 11 Achiyama 8 12 Susanoo 9 13 Tsunamiko 9 14 Hollesshoryu 9 15 Shimodahito 13 16 Andonishiki 8 17 Chisaiyama 8 18 Pitinosato 5 19 ScreechingOwl 7 20 Shokikogi 8 chishafuwaku Edited March 10, 2015 by chishafuwaku 1
chishafuwaku Posted March 6, 2015 Author Posted March 6, 2015 BOUT TIME DAY 1 M1e Tochiozan vs Kisenosato Deadline 15:00 JST (8 March 2015) chishafuwaku
chishafuwaku Posted March 7, 2015 Author Posted March 7, 2015 Compared to last tournament are missing :-( Tsukiko MmikasazumaGanzohnesushi Andonishikishimodahito SusanooShokikogi Wamahada And we have no one new :-( , so far chishafuwaku
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