Doitsuyama 1,173 Posted July 26, 2006 Some of you might remember my Historical Strength Analysis from one year ago. If not it might be a good idea to go back to that topic, because I won't repeat the explanation of the methodical approach, table column meanings etc. since nothing of these have changed this time.Six basho have gone by since this last edition, and I thought it's a good time to look at the changes. Especially since some rikishi's performances, Hakuho and Miyabiyama on the forefront, are throwing up questions in historical context lately.The following tables are listing all rikishi with career high rank in makuuchi who were active in the last six basho, grouped by yokozuna, ozeki, sekiwake, komusubi and maegashira, just like the original tables. Since the rikishi who weren't sekitori after Nagoya 2005 can't change strength ratings I omitted all those for the sake of better readability. You can refer to the original analysis for these (their ranks can be lower now of course with new rikishi rising).Let's start right away with the simplest category as Asashoryu stayed the sole active yokozuna all year. I actually have added two new columns on the right which serve to illustrate the change over the last year. Δ P is the change of the Peak rating (always positive or 0) and Δ R10 is the change of the Rating 10 (normally positive or 0, but can actually get negative as well for rikishi in decline). Yokozuna 1960-2006 Rank Shikona First Last Basho Makuuchi Kyujo W-L-D Peak Rank Rating 3 Rank Rating 6 Rank Rating 10 Rank Δ P Δ R10 Y Asashoryu 200009 200607 36 34 0 410-114 2612 5 2606 5 2582 5 2531 9 4 75 Asashoryu was able to improve his peak slightly after the 14-1 in Kyushu, but suffered an 11-4 in Hatsu and an 1-2-12 in Natsu. Each time he recovered quickly with yusho in Haru and Nagoya of course, but still is 30 short of his peak right now. The last year underlined his career consistency with those two basho being mere bumps on the road in the big picture and his R3, R6 and R10 values have risen considerably. With his peak rating he clipped ahead of Kitanofuji and his R3 and R6 also are ranked 5th just ahead of Kitanofuji, behind only Taiho, Kitanoumi, Tamanoumi and Chiyonofuji. These four are still considerably ahead of Asashoryu except Tamanoumi's R6, which would be better if his career hadn't been tragically cut short. Asahoryu's R10 is lower only because his career still is relatively short and will rise over the next year even if he has an off year. Ozeki 1960-2006 Rank Shikona First Last Basho Makuuchi Kyujo W-L-D Peak Rank Rating 3 Rank Rating 6 Rank Rating 10 Rank Δ P Δ R10 O Hakuho 200401 200607 16 14 0 168-65 2512 25 2442 41 2365 58 2317 69 168 106 O Tochiazuma 199605 200607 57 54 5 480-275 2463 39 2450 36 2428 37 2406 36 13 17 O Kaio 199201 200607 85 76 3 728-452 2461 41 2454 35 2441 31 2429 27 0 0 O Chiyotaikai 199507 200607 63 50 4 555-343 2419 54 2418 49 2413 44 2402 38 0 1 O Dejima 199609 200607 56 53 4 456-343 2394 66 2373 66 2341 67 2312 71 0 0 O Miyabiyama 199811 200607 45 43 2 369-282 2392 67 2360 69 2326 74 2298 76 43 32 O Kotooshu 200405 200607 14 12 0 135-74 2382 70 2332 78 2245 120 2216 130 81 31 The ozeki table is much bigger already with five current plus two former ozeki. Two ozeki are new compared to one year ago with Kotooshu and Hakuho getting promoted meanwhile. Kotooshu had a very promising ozeki run, but injuries prevented him from showing strong performances at the new rank. Right now he would be one of the worst ozeki since 1960, and he isn't exactly showing immediate improvement with his current rating being 75 below his peak. His career still is quite short with just 12 makuuchi basho, so he still can improve his values.The other new ozeki is Hakuho of course, and he didn't stop with the promotion as he is 27-3 since. His peak rating is right now naturally, and only a few ozeki had a better one; Kitanofuji, Mienoumi, Wajima and Wakamisugi in the last ozeki basho and Asahifuji after the three basho 1989.01 until 1989.05 without getting promoted (he got promoted to yokozuna later but never reached this peak again). Even the best ozeki rating of Takanohana II was lower despite winning two zensho in the end as always a bad basho would drag his rating down during his ozeki time. In comparison with the yokozuna since 1960 Hakuho still would be in the bottom quarter right now but as he is quite young I expect him to improve his peak rating in the future.Out of the three current longtime ozeki only Tochiazuma could improve his peak rating with a yusho in the Hatsu basho and elevated his career level to be about equal with Kaio now which is among the best ozeki all-time, but nowhere near yokozuna level. Kaio and Chiyotaikai couldn't even improve the R10 as both slipped over the last year to be currently about 150 (Kaio) and 100 below the peak.No improvement for former ozeki Dejima as well and nothing to expect in the future as his rating is sliding slide from 2204 to 2127 as he enjoys regularly being at the fringes of the joi-jin. It is totally another story for Miyabiyama who surprised many observers with a breakout year as the former ozeki actually improved his peak rating by 43 and also the R10 by 32. Just a year ago he was the worst ozeki since 1960 along with Masuiyama, now he is at least leaving Masuiyama alone in that spot. He still would be quite at the bottom of the ozeki ranking at his age we'll have to see if he can continue to improve. Sekiwake 1960-2006 Rank Shikona First Last Basho Makuuchi Kyujo W-L-D Peak Rank Rating 3 Rank Rating 6 Rank Rating 10 Rank Δ P Δ R10 S Kotomitsuki 199911 200607 39 34 2 342-227 2365 75 2353 72 2331 72 2311 72 0 11 S Wakanosato 199711 200607 49 44 4 416-294 2354 81 2346 74 2333 71 2316 70 0 5 S Tosanoumi 199411 200607 70 65 1 535-510 2317 100 2308 92 2291 90 2276 85 0 0 S Kyokutenho 199603 200607 62 47 0 451-475 2278 123 2270 120 2254 116 2228 118 0 15 S Kotonowaka 199007 200511 89 86 4 630-668 2268 136 2246 140 2227 137 2211 133 0 0 S Takanowaka 199905 200607 42 33 2 304-297 2262 139 2237 146 2209 148 2169 164 0 1 S Hokutoriki 200201 200607 28 26 0 203-215 2257 144 2196 186 2162 199 2132 214 0 5 S Tochinonada 199611 200607 58 54 1 421-422 2241 159 2238 144 2233 132 2222 124 0 0 S Tamanoshima 199909 200607 41 34 0 309-301 2235 169 2233 148 2222 140 2196 142 0 33 S Tamakasuga 199503 200607 68 55 1 487-502 2225 175 2197 179 2182 169 2164 169 0 0 There isn't much to tell about the bunch of active career sekiwake as most are on the decline. Noone was able to improve his peak rating. Only Tamanoshima came quite close to his peak, improving his R3, R6 and R10 considerably; still on a rather low level for a sekiwake. Others still showing some sign of improvement or Kyokutenho and current sekiwake Kotomitsuki. Komusubi 1960-2006 Rank Shikona First Last Basho Makuuchi Kyujo W-L-D Peak Rank Rating 3 Rank Rating 6 Rank Rating 10 Rank Δ P Δ R10 K Iwakiyama 200203 200607 27 23 0 206-189 2246 154 2226 155 2205 152 2165 166 0 26 K Takamisakari 200001 200607 34 29 2 253-242 2241 160 2207 171 2176 183 2148 198 0 9 K Roho 200401 200607 16 12 0 132-102 2221 181 2208 168 2163 198 2147 200 24 56 K Kakizoe 200303 200607 21 18 0 160-155 2214 192 2200 178 2168 190 2152 186 0 3 K Kisenosato 200405 200607 14 11 0 110-98 2205 206 2126 275 2068 353 2055 364 207 103 K Toki 199707 200603 51 37 1 352-400 2204 208 2183 206 2161 200 2143 204 0 0 K Asasekiryu 200207 200607 25 21 0 187-164 2198 214 2165 226 2139 232 2100 259 60 39 K Ama 200403 200607 15 11 0 119-105 2196 217 2120 288 2062 369 2048 381 123 62 K Shimotori 200105 200607 31 20 1 230-225 2186 228 2153 239 2127 239 2087 295 0 0 K Chiyotenzan 199701 200511 48 22 1 326-387 2174 242 2151 241 2118 257 2069 327 0 0 K Kyokushuzan 199503 200607 68 60 0 466-548 2166 253 2165 228 2160 205 2151 190 0 4 K Futeno 200305 200607 20 14 0 148-144 2166 254 2147 243 2099 293 2062 345 0 46 K Tochinohana 199901 200607 38 19 1 272-280 2166 255 2097 334 2062 370 2029 430 0 24 K Kaiho 199705 200607 54 42 2 382-419 2148 274 2134 263 2112 273 2089 293 0 0 We had some komusubi debuts over the last year with Roho, Kisenosato, Asasekiryu and Ama all increasing their peak rating in that period as well. Kisenosato and Ama had the biggest increase as they profited from increasing makuuchi experience and are getting better at a young age. Asasekiryu also had a nice improvement going with the debut, he also still is young getting 25 in 12 days. We will see if the can continue to improve over the next year.None of the older komusubi could improve the peak rating while some padded the R10 with more basho experience. The six komusubi from Shimotori down are in the lower half of the komusubi since 1960, and I see only Futeno as having potential for improvement. Maegashira 1960-2006 Rank Shikona First Last Basho Makuuchi Kyujo W-L-D Peak Rank Rating 3 Rank Rating 6 Rank Rating 10 Rank Δ P Δ R10 M1 Kokkai 200305 200607 20 16 0 160-137 2241 161 2223 157 2184 168 2159 175 0 39 M4 Baruto 200509 200607 4 2 1 47-13 2222 180 2107 311 2092 310 2086 297 New New M1 Kotoshogiku 200407 200607 13 9 0 107-88 2167 251 2114 301 2071 350 2061 350 99 37 M3 Tokitsuumi 199705 200607 54 43 2 381-411 2146 282 2142 253 2122 246 2101 256 0 1 M1 Aminishiki 200001 200607 40 35 0 285-304 2145 283 2131 268 2119 255 2098 264 26 21 M1 Tokitenku 200403 200607 15 11 0 118-105 2133 305 2108 310 2062 368 2049 379 95 60 M2 Hakurozan 200409 200607 12 7 0 92-88 2097 372 2048 435 1999 488 1987 493 136 50 M1 Tochisakae 199803 200607 37 24 3 267-256 2097 374 2081 368 2067 356 2045 388 0 1 M3 Takekaze 200209 200607 22 16 2 169-148 2087 394 2084 361 2072 346 2067 333 0 6 M1 Buyuzan 200005 200607 34 25 0 239-260 2080 410 2073 381 2060 374 2036 414 0 5 M5 Toyozakura 199809 200607 30 12 0 210-233 2069 431 2031 467 1998 489 1964 528 0 18 M6 Jumonji 199801 200607 41 31 1 293-318 2067 433 2062 403 2048 409 2034 420 0 11 M6 Kasugao 200207 200607 25 14 0 181-185 2066 437 2046 436 2012 473 1990 488 0 16 M8 Toyonoshima 200405 200607 14 10 0 114-96 2062 443 2044 440 2027 448 2023 445 75 41 M4 Otsukasa 199601 200607 59 25 0 420-465 2047 470 2032 462 2017 466 2002 477 0 0 M10 Ushiomaru 200201 200607 23 7 3 172-163 2038 481 2017 482 1986 502 1961 536 0 -11 M11 Homasho 200601 200607 4 2 0 37-23 2033 488 1986 521 1980 513 1978 505 New New M5 Kasuganishiki 199907 200607 31 12 1 215-231 2016 506 2000 503 1985 504 1959 538 0 13 M8 Takanotsuru 200103 200603 29 5 1 200-229 2014 507 1982 527 1952 554 1928 584 0 -6 M8 Tamarikido 199909 200607 27 11 4 187-186 2009 512 2004 499 1986 501 1969 519 0 -5 M11 Yotsukasa 199805 200511 41 8 0 275-324 2003 523 1984 522 1957 544 1932 573 0 0 M9 Yoshikaze 200507 200607 7 4 0 56-48 2000 529 1971 541 1967 534 1965 524 127 92 M9 Kitazakura 199807 200607 43 9 1 314-330 1997 532 1982 528 1960 541 1941 559 0 15 M10 Harunoyama 200011 200607 32 3 2 225-246 1981 546 1954 562 1925 595 1901 614 0 -6 M11 Wakatoba 200105 200607 28 7 0 191-228 1976 553 1963 552 1939 569 1910 603 0 9 M12 Shunketsu 200101 200607 19 5 1 133-150 1972 558 1941 577 1917 605 1910 605 13 1 M9 Tamaasuka 200411 200601 8 3 0 46-49 1972 559 1922 606 1907 613 1903 611 0 1 M13 Katayama 200407 200607 13 5 0 94-101 1960 574 1938 582 1927 592 1924 588 0 15 M9 Kobo 199901 200607 43 4 0 298-333 1948 589 1941 579 1923 600 1907 606 0 1 M16 Daimanazuru 200401 200607 12 1 0 81-98 1888 656 1857 670 1833 685 1828 689 71 34 This is the last table, and I am listing all maegashira this time (as opposed to only those with ten makuuchi basho one year ago). Kokkai still is leading all maegashira since 1960 and he still couldn't get to the komusubi rank during the last year. This could change now as he posted a 10-5 from M5 this basho; ironically his current rating still is about 50 below his peak. Comfortably in second place already with only two makuuchi basho is Baruto, and I don't think he'll finish his career as a maegashira... Kotoshogiku in the next place was severely out of his depth in the joi-jin but I could still fathom him reaching sanyaku in the future.Standing out in last place is Daimanazuru with a peak of 60 lower than that of the next-to-last, Kobo. Still, he isn't the worst all time as Oko (1868), Makimoto (1851) and Azumanishiki (1846) had even lower peaks as moto-maegashira. All of them were in makuuchi only for one basho naturally. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asojima 2,873 Posted July 26, 2006 Thanks much for the masterwork update. (Sign of approval) (Sign of approval) (Sign of approval) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fay 1,677 Posted July 26, 2006 Thank's very much for this great analysis. Well I fear I have to go back to the old forum post and spend an evening with it ;-) to understand it all, but it's worth it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zuikakuyama 1 Posted July 27, 2006 A very big thanks for your analysis!!! (Applauding...) A question. The data you have here seems to be different than those on Here Are they different? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Doitsuyama 1,173 Posted July 27, 2006 The data you have here seems to be different than those on HereAre they different? The two sets are quite similar. The difference results from two changes I did for the historical ratings. The most important and most obvious change is that this set adds all makuuchi bouts from 1927 to 1988 in addition to the Heisei ratings which leads to calculated ratings where the Heisei ratings had to assume entry ratings for all rikishi in 1989.01. The second and more subtle change is a more refined method to determine entry ratings (= ratings for rikishi entering the rating system for the first time). The Heisei ratings simply have a fixed entry rating which definitely wasn't possible for the historical ratings due to greatly varying size of makuuchi, and especially the Shunjuen incident, so entry ratings are now based on banzuke rank (as a rank number, counting from 1 upwards; eg J14w now would be rank #70). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Quentooshu Posted July 28, 2006 The data you have here seems to be different than those on Here Are they different? The two sets are quite similar. The difference results from two changes I did for the historical ratings. The most important and most obvious change is that this set adds all makuuchi bouts from 1927 to 1988 in addition to the Heisei ratings which leads to calculated ratings where the Heisei ratings had to assume entry ratings for all rikishi in 1989.01. The second and more subtle change is a more refined method to determine entry ratings (= ratings for rikishi entering the rating system for the first time). The Heisei ratings simply have a fixed entry rating which definitely wasn't possible for the historical ratings due to greatly varying size of makuuchi, and especially the Shunjuen incident, so entry ratings are now based on banzuke rank (as a rank number, counting from 1 upwards; eg J14w now would be rank #70). Incredible work! What database do you have that contains all of the results and is it available? Also, does your rating calulator change the ratings of each rikishi after each bout or after each basho? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ryukaze 0 Posted July 30, 2006 (edited) Im a little dissapointed in you bro, seems to me like you plug in this formula and use it to make your sumo game picks eh? (or anyone who uses any type of formula etc.) As they should come from you, your own head and knowledge of watching individual bouts etc. not with the help of statistics, I dont agree. Edited July 30, 2006 by Ryukaze Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fay 1,677 Posted July 30, 2006 Im a little dissapointed in you bro, seems to me like you plug in this formula and use it to make your sumo game picks eh? (or anyone who uses any type of formula etc.) As they should come from you, your own head and knowledge of watching individual bouts etc. not with the help of statistics, I dont agree. Hey bro, this is really one of the biggest bollocks I've read in the last time .... (I am not worthy...) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zeokage 0 Posted July 30, 2006 I agree, the analysis gives a scientific analysis of past results. All that can do for the future is tell you how they're currently doing. For all we know, Futeno could go 13-2 next basho which would be completely against the science. You can predict a trend using science, but it will not be 100% accurate. If it was, there wouldn't be betting. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sumofan 6 Posted July 30, 2006 I agree, the analysis gives a scientific analysis of past results. All that can do for the future is tell you how they're currently doing. For all we know, Futeno could go 13-2 next basho which would be completely against the science. You can predict a trend using science, but it will not be 100% accurate. If it was, there wouldn't be betting. Indeed, but this is exactly what bookmakers do. They use statistical analysis to determine the odds, and then use those to calculate the odds they are going to give the gamblers. Strange things, miracles and disasters happen during the games, but on average, the games turn out as predicted. That is why bookmakers and casinos always win in the long run. And I do NOT agree with Ryukaze. You can make sumo predictions any way you want. flipping coins, using your gut feeling, or statistical analysis. Why would you not use the knowledge that you have? That's called improvisation. If I want to solve a difficult sudoku or logic puzzle, I 'll write an application to do so. Just because I can. Instead, I am grateful that doytsuma shares this knowledge with us, instead of keeping everything to himself, which he could do as well. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
_the_mind_ 0 Posted July 30, 2006 (edited) I agree, the analysis gives a scientific analysis of past results. All that can do for the future is tell you how they're currently doing. For all we know, Futeno could go 13-2 next basho which would be completely against the science. You can predict a trend using science, but it will not be 100% accurate. If it was, there wouldn't be betting. i sincerely doubt Doitsuyama-san went through all the trouble of making this in an attempt to predict the future. it is a ranking of where each rikishi stands in relation to all previous rikishi(and current). it is in no way trying to predict the future. it is a comparison ranking of the past. .....i could be wrong, as i did not recreate it so i dont know its true intention, but that is how it is presented. thats is why he called it "historical strength analysis" not "here is my predictions for the future" Edited July 30, 2006 by _the_mind_ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Coo-cook 0 Posted July 31, 2006 (edited) I agree, the analysis gives a scientific analysis of past results. All that can do for the future is tell you how they're currently doing. For all we know, Futeno could go 13-2 next basho which would be completely against the science. You can predict a trend using science, but it will not be 100% accurate. If it was, there wouldn't be betting. i sincerely doubt Doitsuyama-san went through all the trouble of making this in an attempt to predict the future. it is a ranking of where each rikishi stands in relation to all previous rikishi(and current). it is in no way trying to predict the future. it is a comparison ranking of the past. .....i could be wrong, as i did not recreate it so i dont know its true intention, but that is how it is presented. thats is why he called it "historical strength analysis" not "here is my predictions for the future" Who knows, we might have a Sumo- Nostradamus among us. (I am not worthy...) Edited July 31, 2006 by Coo-cook Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ryukaze 0 Posted July 31, 2006 (edited) Notice the key words, "It seems to me....." just my thoughts and opinions, (which is what this board is here for right?) I may very well be right with regards to "Doitsuyama-sama's" uses of the information he has (seemingly) painstakingly gone through the trouble to gather, and I may not be. Either way it's just that "my opinion" so "RELAXXXXXXXXX" he's a big boy so he can defend himself if he feels the need to, yet Im sure by now he knows not to take anything I say too personally, he he he (Incidentaly regarding sumo games however I do indeed still think that the highest degree of skill is shown when someone can predict the outcome of a match using their own personal knowledge having watched bouts etc. as opposed to using any kind of statistics, win % etc to pre-determine the likelyhood of a bouts outcome.) Edited July 31, 2006 by Ryukaze Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Naganoyama 5,881 Posted July 31, 2006 I think it shows a considerable amount of skill to carry out analysis like this also. Jealous Lollipop? (Chucking salt...) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
_the_mind_ 0 Posted July 31, 2006 (Incidentaly regarding sumo games however I do indeed still think that the highest degree of skill is shown when someone can predict the outcome of a match using their own personal knowledge having watched bouts etc. as opposed to using any kind of statistics, win % etc to pre-determine the likelyhood of a bouts outcome.) so if Asa were to fight takamisakari you wouldnt already know the outcome? based on the fact you personally know Asa usually only loses one or two a whole basho and sakari is usually scraping just to get 8. and the fact you know the rank difference and that Asa owns everyone except hakuho. you dont think that is using your personal knowledge of the statistics of sumo? it is, it just isnt written on paper. you are using statistics when you try to pick a winner or you would just use a dart board to pick the winner. you can act like you arent using statistics, but you are. its just in your head, the knowledge you have of previous fights, insead of a list. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sumofan 6 Posted July 31, 2006 so if Asa were to fight takamisakari you wouldnt already know the outcome? Well, if that would ever happen (suppose all sanyaku rikishi go kyujo), Taka might actually amaze you. He is pretty strong, and most of all, he is unpredictable. He manages to lose matches that he should win, based on ranking. He also manages to win against a strong Tochiazuma, who is someone who could win against pretty much all rikishi when he is not injured. So with Takamiskari, you never know until the fat lady sings. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kintamayama 44,646 Posted July 31, 2006 (edited) Doitsuyama is on holiday at the moment, so he can't answer y'all dudes, bro. (LOL). We have an ongoing rivalry in all sumo games (till Fujisan came along and showed us how it's done..) I always make fun of him that his picks are analytical as opposed to my gut feelings. To each his own, I don't see no problems wif dat.. Edited July 31, 2006 by Kintamayama Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
aderechelsea 124 Posted July 31, 2006 (edited) ok .. since Doitsuyama is not around it is the best opportunity to state that this topic is completely insanish (sic). i cannot follow it even for a bit. i guess that's why i never do good in the games when results are "normal". Do you get the same Kintamayama? The bad thing is that the results in Sumo tend to be very "normal" so that's why Doitsu is so much better than me in the whole gaming world. I wonder if Fujisan is using his tables or if he is going by gut feeling too, and if he is WHY THE HELL DOES HIS GUTS PREDICT THE FUTURE SO MUCH BETTER THAN MINE ??? Edited July 31, 2006 by aderechelsea Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jakusotsu 5,874 Posted July 31, 2006 Psst, a secret: Fujisan doesn't rely on his own guts - he uses rabbit entrails instead. (Chucking salt...) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
_the_mind_ 0 Posted August 1, 2006 ok .. since Doitsuyama is not around it is the best opportunity to state that this topic is completely insanish (sic).i cannot follow it even for a bit. i guess that's why i never do good in the games when results are "normal". Do you get the same Kintamayama? The bad thing is that the results in Sumo tend to be very "normal" so that's why Doitsu is so much better than me in the whole gaming world. I wonder if Fujisan is using his tables or if he is going by gut feeling too, and if he is WHY THE HELL DOES HIS GUTS PREDICT THE FUTURE SO MUCH BETTER THAN MINE ??? perhaps it might be less confusing if you check out the link in his post to the previous whole ranking. it is pretty well explained. at least i think so. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
aderechelsea 124 Posted August 1, 2006 i tried to watch this thread since joining this forum but i guess it is not "my cup of tea" after all. It's probably not difficult but it's not that interesting to me after all ... anyway .... back to the topic before Doitsuyama returns and finds out i am wrecking his topic .... (Whistling...) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kotobaru 0 Posted August 1, 2006 Well, back to topic, as a new here it's really amazing to see how many work one :-/ person have been through! My area of knowledge is much related to math and numbers, so they tell me a story. I think this analysis giving the best possibility to compare rikishi of present time to those who are out of dohyo. I hope Doitsu will be back soon to answer my question. I'm really wondering where you got the idea to use the Elo kind of ranking system? Is there any argumentation why it's better than some other, or is it just so easy algoritm to use? Can you give some light ... ;-) Thanks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mokele 3 Posted August 2, 2006 These numerical ratings are very similar to those in the chess world, and your work is similar in some ways to that of Jeff Sonas: http://db.chessmetrics.com/ In any case it's a great idea. I've been a sumo fan since around 1992, diligently watching every basho as long as I could access it. I've noticed that the Kyokai doesn't have a strict or well-defined manner in which the ranking of a maegashira rikishi changes from 1 basho to the next. The only thing that a sumo fan seems to know is that, among maegashira, a rikishi's ranking rises (if there's room for him to rise of course) if he scores kachi-koshi and falls with a make-koshi result, and better scores result in a greater rise in the ranking whereas a very bad result results in a large drop in the ranking. Sekiwake and komusubi will invariably drop out of sanyaku if they win less than 7 bouts in a basho, and will at least keep their ranking if they score kachi-koshi. 1 thing that a numerical rating for rikishi could do is to allow a fairly reliable prediction of how a rikishi will do in a given basho based on his rating and the ratings of his opponents. Of course intangible factors are involved too such as injuries and other health issues. Also, psychological factors seem to play a role, as the plethora of "elevator rikishi" demonstrates. Many of the maegashira rikishi have good results when ranked near the bottom of Makunouchi but have disastrous results when ranked near the top. I suspect that this phenomena is due not just to the strength of the rikishi they face but their mental attitude as well. It's a complicated issue. Anyway, great research and study! It is appreciated. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zeokage 0 Posted August 4, 2006 This analysis is brought together using formulae derived from the Elo system, which was originally used for chess... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Doitsuyama 1,173 Posted August 4, 2006 Im a little dissapointed in you bro, seems to me like you plug in this formula and use it to make your sumo game picks eh? (or anyone who uses any type of formula etc.) As they should come from you, your own head and knowledge of watching individual bouts etc. not with the help of statistics, I dont agree. I certainly use my statistics as a help for making game picks, not solely by any means, and not even exclusively as anyone is invited to do the same (the Heisei ratings are freely available after all). But even if I would use this stuff solely and exclusively - I don't care if you agree or not. I still feel it's a valid approach. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites