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Tetsuzukiyama

Upper Clique

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Hoping that they stay healthy down the stretch, the July tournament should have a really decent upper-clique of wrestlers for the first time in ages. Asashoryu, Hakuho, Kotooshu, Miyabiyama and maybe even Tochiazuma/Baruto seem to have put some distance between themselves and the rest of the top-16.

I had a few questions to throw out to gauge people's opinions. First off, who's gonna win?

I'm seeing the following probabilities to win, health assumed:

Asashoryu 3/10

Hakuho 3/10

Kotooshu 2/10

Miyabiyama 1/10

Tochiazuma .5/10

Baruto .5/10

Asa and Hack are probably closer to 40% as they've got the Yokozuna cred going in, but the spoiler factor is way higher here than it has been in a while. Anybody else seeing it like I do? Is Asashoryu still in a league of his own?

Second, when was the last time you recall the Yusho being so broadly contended? I've only been following for as long as Asashoryu's been the Yokozuna and to me there have never been more than one or two others within striking distance of the Cup. Never this close a six way race, that's for sure.

C'mon, let's get this forum moving again!

Edited by Tetsuzukiyama

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Here's how I see it, if everyone is healthy:

Asashoryu: 50%

Hakuho: 30%

Kotooshu: 10%

Tochiazuma 7%

Miyabiyama 2%

everyone else 1%

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Tochiazuma I think has next to no chance. Baruto as well. Asashouryuu will be very eager to go all out crazy, which is no good for him at all. He then proceeds to lose to someone on day 2 and falls out of his groove. Hakuhou looks stable, and barring injuries will probably have a good basho. Osh is well rested and will be back in full form, but no yusho. Miyabiyama will win enough to get re-promoted, but no yusho.

Someone else. I have no idea who, but someone else.

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Tochiazuma I think has next to no chance. Baruto as well. Asashouryuu will be very eager to go all out crazy, which is no good for him at all. He then proceeds to lose to someone on day 2 and falls out of his groove. Hakuhou looks stable, and barring injuries will probably have a good basho. Osh is well rested and will be back in full form, but no yusho. Miyabiyama will win enough to get re-promoted, but no yusho.

Someone else. I have no idea who, but someone else.

Kisenosato!!!! (Dribbling...) (In love...) (Eek...)

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I'm still new to sumo. I got to be in Japan for my first basho at Natsu 2005. I just recently moved back to the states. I thought I would chime in some about this. It helps me feel a little closer to the sport.

I would be surprised if Bart gets a KK. Don't get me wrong, I like him and think he has potential. But he will most likely be in the cannon fodder position next basho. The first week he will most likely get beat up by the big boys. Not many recover from that to do good against the rest of the cannon fodder in the last week. This is only his second Basho in Makuuchi after all.

Tochi had a chance to get the big belt but blew it in my opinion due to lack of motivation and spirit. If he would have fought at day one like he did near the end against high profile opponents, he would be wearing that big belt. I think he will make his KK to hold on to his rank. You never know. Could his self-esteem be smashed due to an injury and a lost promotion?

I see Asa getting the yusho. He will bounce back and kick ass like he does. Nothing more to say here that isn't already acknowledged.

Hakuho will again be a yusho contender. He will most likely get a jun-yusho and maybe that will be enough for his promotion. He has something Zuma doesn't have: desire. That look in Hakuho's eyes in the play off at Haru was scary. You could tell he wanted it. I was really sure he was going to win it that time.

Kotooshu really pissed me off the last basho. Here we have a pretty young guy that shot to the top pretty fast. The main reason was because he was able to avoid injury. Then he gets injured, but still competes. In Haru he gets even more hurt. For Natsu he should have just sat out. Why risk more injury? He wouldn't lose any rank. Sure he would be kadoban, but after some R&R he would have been full strength for Nagoya. He came really close to getting a MK for Natsu. That would have been crappy to risk injury for nothing. Luckily it looks like everything has worked out for him and he is ready to rock for Nagoya. He will effect the yusho some, but not take it or even jun-yusho. I still haven't seen him recover from his "cold feet" problem.

Not sure about Miya. Lets see if he can stay on this Ozeki run. He just needs to stick to what he is good at and have faith in it to work. His tsuppari. I see him effecting the yusho. Like he has been for the past few. He may not yusho or even jun-yusho, but he'll knock some of the big guys down to make things interesting.

Moti has a point though. Someone else. Never know who might pop up out of nowhere and shake things up. Kise? Giku? Kiryu? Someone may also get injured. Might have a better idea once the banzuke comes out.

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Someone else. I have no idea who, but someone else.

How about your favorite Kaio? Or even Chiyotaikai??

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And some more prophecy:

Asashoryu will make it once again.

Tochiazuma will get his KK, but that's all, no yusho, no jun-yusho.

Miyabiyama will fight for his re-promotion and he will get it.

Baruto will not reach a KK this time.

Kotooshu ... he should have set out already for Haru basho. I think he recovered, but I don't see him in the race for yusho or jun-yushu. He will get his KK.

Hakuho ... I'm a little bit worried. He seems to be in good shape and he wants the promotion with all his might but I don't think he will get it this time, maybe a little bit too early for him.

So let's see about some others

Kaio will reach a 12:3

Kotomitsuki, my all time hope, will finally reach his 10:5 I predict in every Guess the Kotomitsuki

let's not forget Roho and Ama ... They are on the way for Komusubi again, and this time they will stay there (A sekitori...)

But:

Jun-Yusho this time for Kotoshogiku (Clapping wildly...)

Kakuryu 11-4 and in september I can see him in Makuuchi (A yokozuna...)

and of course Koki 5-2 and on his way to Yokuzuna in 2010 (A yokozuna...)

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Going to be an interesting basho with a bunch of coin flips.

Asa and Haku in a kettei-sen. Winner: Flip a coin.

Taikai and Kaio 8-7/7-8: Flip a coin for which one goes Kadoban.

Zoomer: Kabu Kabu

Miyabi: Close, but no cigar. Maybe in Aki.

Shuzan will slip back into mid-maegashira.

Ama and Hokey Rick to M1 or Komisubi.

Bart will pull off some surprise wins and some embarassing losses. 8-7 or 9-6.

Homasho 10 or 11.

A warm wall.

Edited by Asojima

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Kotooshu ... he should have set out already for Haru basho. I think he recovered, but I don't see him in the race for yusho or jun-yushu. He will get his KK.

Kotomitsuki, my all time hope, will finally reach his 10:5

I think they both will do much better than expected and surprise all of us. I predict that floating in the waters of the Dead Sea will produce amazing results. Remember, you heard it here first. (Whistling...)

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Kotooshu ... he should have set out already for Haru basho. I think he recovered, but I don't see him in the race for yusho or jun-yushu. He will get his KK.

Kotomitsuki, my all time hope, will finally reach his 10:5

I think they both will do much better than expected and surprise all of us. I predict that floating in the waters of the Dead Sea will produce amazing results. Remember, you heard it here first. (Sigh...)

I will remember and I hope you're right - you must be (Whistling...)

I forgot Asasekiryu in my list. Well, he will come close to Kotoshogiku ...12-4 (Holiday feeling...)

Edited by Fay

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I think they both will do much better than expected and surprise all of us. I predict that floating in the waters of the Dead Sea will produce amazing results. Remember, you heard it here first. (Clapping wildly...)

Well, I don't know about Kotomitsuki but I'm pretty optimistic about Kotooshu this time out. He was really out to challenge Asashoryu six months ago and now that he's had a few basho to gain his footing I can see him in the front-runners again. Although, watching him get beat by Hakuho lately is pretty hard to forget. Man was I ever jumping out of my seat for some of those bouts.

I'm usually a one-sport guy but the World Cup has been very distracting... and the finals are the same day the basho starts!

That doesn't look good for Asa to have been beaten by Hakuho and citing his arm injury. I'm really looking forward to seeing him back on his game. Still, another Yokozuna wouldn't hurt...

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I'm terribly afraid that Asashoryu will get his butt handed to him. He hasn't shown well and it's getting awfully close to basho time for ligament injuries to heal. He needs to sit the next one out, but I'd bet money he won't --- also, unfortunately, that he won't last and that the yusho will go to Hakuho.

Nothing against Hak. He's a fine technical wrestler, just not that exciting to watch.

Well, I hope I will be proven wrong! (Clapping wildly...)

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I forgot Asasekiryu in my list. Well, he will come close to Kotoshogiku ...12-4

This at least is a predicition i dont believe.

As long as i remember (which is not so long, but) Miyabiyama has always been a 8-9 sanyaku. I dont see a reason why this should change, especially with strong opposition. He will have no chance to win, but may get a promotion.

Baruto will realize, that beating up M10 is something complete different than sanyaku and will finish along the mk/kk-line.

Tochiazuma will get his kk, but will slow down afterwards (like he did in Hatsu (I am not worthy...) )

Asashoryu is still the best and has the biggest chances for yusho, i would give him approx. 50%.

I also believe, that Hakuho will not get the yusho, despite his strong form at the moment. It is just too early for him.

Kaio will fight for the mk/kk; he is simply too old for yusho, but Chiyotaikai may be there for a surprise.

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