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Shibouyama

Can Miyabiyama make it back to Ozeki?

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Yes, of course it's too early, and this is just idle speculation, but with a 10-5 last basho at Komosubi and him looking strong this basho and with Asa out and with (not counting Hakuhou) a less than intimidating Ozeki field and etc...

Does anyone else think that Miyabiyama could be starting an Ozeki run?

It would be great and add another dimension of interest to this year's bashos if he came up with double digit wins this basho.

Not a huge fan of The Sherrif, but would like to see it. Spice things up a bit, ya know?

Edited by Shibouyama

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My vote is NO! (Punk rocker...) I am not a fan of the slobber blobber... (Hugging...) I don't think he can keep winning and do that well for 15 Days. He will get tired. (Dohyo-iri...)

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If the Sherrif can keep this form, I expect him to get 11 or 12 wins. The obstacles he will face are 2 or 3 henka and Hakuho. Go Miyabi !!

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Could he get the necessary wins to make the next basho a potential promotion basho? Perhaps. Could he actually become an Ozeki again? Hell no.

It's a huge step from being a sanyaku regular that manages, say, 28 or so wins in any three basho (just about the level he seems to be at now, which is impressive in its own right) to getting the necessary 33 wins for Ozeki promotion. Just ask Wakanosato. Sato never managed to get 12 wins in the joi-jin, permanently dooming his Ozeki aspirations. Miyabiyama hasn't even reached 11 again since before his original Ozeki promotion back in 2000.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Could he get the necessary wins to make the next basho a potential promotion basho? Perhaps. Could he actually become an Ozeki again? Hell no.

Is it likely, no. But, I disagree with your 100% NO answer. I would give him at least a 10-15% yes probability given his current genkiness and the current status of the field.

I should probably just agree with you, but...

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I think given that there are currently 5 Ozeki, Miyabiyama would have to do something pretty extraordinary to get promoted again, especially after his less than stellar previous tenure at that rank.

Then again, we may have only 3 Ozeki in 2 bashos time, so who knows (Whistling...)

Cheers

Zenjimoto

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Is it likely, no. But, I disagree with your 100% NO answer. I would give him at least a 10-15% yes probability given his current genkiness and the current status of the field.

I should probably just agree with you, but...

No problem, I'm just voicing my opinion. (You are going off-topic...) I'm obviously exaggerating when I put his chances at 0.000%, but then I do consider even 10% much too high. There are so many examples of rikishi getting hot and putting up 20+ wins in two tournaments, but maintaining that pace for a third basho (or rather, exceeding it, since even after something like 10-5, 11-4 you still need to go at least one better the next time) is just tremendously difficult. Even guys with "future Ozeki" written all over them are failing more often than not, and often need multiple attempts to finally make it.

Of course, I might be a little jaded from seeing the same discussion a year and a half ago, after Miya had consecutive 9-6's as Sekiwake. And then he even added a third 9-6. Lots of people looked at that as him being ready for a breakout basho - all I saw was consistency with little upside. (Whistling...) And that's pretty much what I'm seeing today as well. Still, I might be wrong...stranger things than Miya re-attaining the Ozeki rank have surely happened.

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I'd actually like to see Miya go back to Ozeki... Just so I could dislike him with more gusto. (Whistling...) And of course, because Kintamayama said he would.

BTW, why "The Sherrif"?

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Well, sure, I don't think he'll actually do it.

I'm just trying to provoke some discussion on a possibility.

I want to post cuz I'm happy.

Nobody can stop me. Ha ha.

(Whistling...)

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Since I've been 'out there' and on record for some time hee heeing his chances to return to ozeki, I'll stick to my guns by saying he won't make it. I will say though he's surprising the heck out of me right at this minute but like Asashosakari said, we've seen it all before - perhaps not this impressively, but we've seen it. It's never been about ability with him - it's just about having the mental toughness to sustain the motivation. He can do it for a while but keeping it up is just too hard and he slips backward and looks like he'd rather be somewhere else. Actually, I'd like to be wrong because - how can anyone be opposed to having another strong ozeki?

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Is it likely, no. But, I disagree with your 100% NO answer. I would give him at least a 10-15% yes probability given his current genkiness and the current status of the field.

I should probably just agree with you, but...

No problem, I'm just voicing my opinion. (Whistling...) I'm obviously exaggerating when I put his chances at 0.000%, but then I do consider even 10% much too high. There are so many examples of rikishi getting hot and putting up 20+ wins in two tournaments, but maintaining that pace for a third basho (or rather, exceeding it, since even after something like 10-5, 11-4 you still need to go at least one better the next time) is just tremendously difficult. Even guys with "future Ozeki" written all over them are failing more often than not, and often need multiple attempts to finally make it.

Well, I don't see it in terms of "20+ wins in two tournaments". I rather like to look at my strength ratings, and Miyabiyama had his second highest career rating after the Haru basho (2325, he was 2349 after Natsu 2000, his ozeki promotion basho). He even made it into the top six on the index page for the first time ever. At 2325 strength, anyone becomes an ozeki candidate in my eyes. Let me look at some other rikishi in that context (in historical order).

- Chiyotaikai became ozeki the first time he jumped over 2325.

- Kaio needed a while, but at the seventh time he finally became ozeki (2432 by then).

- Tochiazuma needed even more with nine basho better than 2325 and below ozeki.

- Dejima also got ozeki the first time, breaking the barrier with a yusho. He was better than that only for six basho after that.

- Musoyama became ozeki with the second basho at better than 2325. Actually he was better than that only five times after than that, even fewer than Dejima despite his relative long tenure as ozeki.

- Wakanosato was better than that only for two basho.

- Kotomitsuki was it four times, thanks to several breakout basho.

- Oh, Hakuho actually already was EIGHT times over 2325 already before his promotion to ozeki. He is now at 2440 and just 21 years old. He has yokozuna written all over him.

- Kotooshu became ozeki with the second basho at better than 2325.

And this was it. No more at better than 2325 since Nagoya 1998, my starting point for that, except yokozuna of course. So, out of ten rikishi who made 2325, eight eventually became ozeki, only Wakanosato and Kotomitsuki missed (yet!). Actually, ten out twelve, since Musashimaru and Asahoryu should also count as successful ozeki promotions since Nagoya 1998.

All this just to show that Miyabiyama really is not only on a "20+ in two basho" trip (which is not enough to get to 2325), but has proven some sustained strength lately. How far this goes to translate in percent, I don't know, but I'd eagerly be willing to put my money on a 15% bet (i.e. I set 100, someone else sets 500, after Miyabiyama's intai the winner gets the total...)

Any takers?

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As much as I like Miyabiyama, I don't see him returning to the overcrowded ozeki rank. Despite his good performances, he only has a small window of opportunity between one or two ozeki retiring and the next wave of young guns (e.g. Baruto, Homasho, Mokonami...) reaching sanyaku.

The situation reminds me of Kaio's last (possibly) tsuna run. Would I rather have seen him stay as the best ozeki of our time, or promoted to yokozuna only to retire soon after? Frankly, I'd prefer a good (or excellent) sekiwake Miyabiyama to a mediocre ozeki Miyabiyama.

I think he likes things as they are, being heyagashira of Musashigawa. And that may be why he hasn't returned.

Well even if you beat an Ozeki, if you get tripped up by a lower rank guy, then you know I won't have much of chance, right?
(Kudos to Jonosuke. (Nodding yes...))
15 wins for Ozeki promotion? Sure, I know that. :-D
(Kudos to Madorosumaru. (Nodding yes...))

That said,

miya1.gif

Edited by Exil

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next wave of young guns (e.g. Baruto, Homasho, Mokonami...) reaching sanyaku.

Don't count on Mokonami. He's so weak (specially, no strength in upper body).

He probably would reach Makuuchi some day. But, I see him as another Tokitenku or Asasekiryu if lucky.

Generally, I think the Mongolians are pretty much filtered out from bottom (I don't know about Seiro yet).

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Never give up Exil until he retires!

Don't worry, nobody here is giving up Exil, he's far too valuable. B-)

Don't count on Mokonami. He's so weak (specially, no strength in upper body).

He probably would reach Makuuchi some day. But, I see him as another Tokitenku or Asasekiryu if lucky.

Generally, I think the Mongolians are pretty much filtered out from bottom (I don't know about Seiro yet).

Even if there isn't another Hakuho-in-waiting in the lower divisions, I think we can expect another handful of Mongolians to become sekitori in the next few years; most of them are still young enough that they're years away from their physical peak, so still lots of room for improvement.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Don't count on Mokonami. He's so weak (specially, no strength in upper body).

In his body style and shikiri mannerisms, he is an exact match for a young Wajima. Unfortunately, the similarity ends at the tachiai. Agree he seems to lack strength. At 22, he still has a little bit of development time ahead of him.

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NHK announcer introduced Miyabi's comment today:

Miyabiyama's sumo-mind has been going back and forth between oshi and yotsu after the injury.

He thought the brutal oshi-strength left him, and so even thought of converting to a yotsu-zumo

rikishi at one point. But now he feels that oshi-power coming back as time heals the injuries,

that he can do the very kind of sumo he wants, as much as he wants. Oshi-zumo that is. B-)

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i have seen several times in this thread mention of him not getting back because there are so many ozeki, to me if he is able to get 10+ each basho even with all the ozeki's it shows he must not be losing to too many of them. granted Asa is out right now, but if you are pushing for ozeki and there are 5 of them ahead of you, then you nearly have to beat half of them each time(yes the math suggests that you COULD lose to them all and still get promoted, but the reality of it suggests something different). ....its a stacked banzuke at the top, and to meet the requirements for ozeki should make it even more impressive. i am not a big fan of miyabiyama but i am a fan of people who find success, i hope he does it, his sumo has looked strong lately. becoming the 6th active ozeki shows more about your ability to fight and win then being the person who moved up as the 3rd or 4th ozeki as there were less ozeki calibur fights that must be won for promotion. just my opinion.

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i have seen several times in this thread mention of him not getting back because there are so many ozeki, ....its a stacked banzuke at the top, and to meet the requirements for ozeki should make it even more impressive. ... becoming the 6th active ozeki shows more about your ability to fight and win then being the person who moved up as the 3rd or 4th ozeki as there were less ozeki calibur fights that must be won for promotion. just my opinion.

I think I've come around to possibly disagreeing with this generally accepted viewpoint. What's missing is the idea that our 'future retirees' are not fighting as strong as they were when last promoted, so at a certain point (maybe right before demotion or maybe years before demotion in a continual state of kadoban) you can almost count Kaio and Chiyo as jo'i who managed to get a foothold on the top rungs. Of course I make this comparison only to challenge the math, not to suggest that Kaio or Chiyotaikai don't deserve the respect of the rank. Miyabiyama trounced Kaio the other day, a fair reflection of this concept. So in a way it's more like trying to make Ozeki with only 3 strong Ozeki and 1 Yokozuna already on the banzuke. 3O + 1Y is just begging for another Ozeki to take the place of an imminent yokozuna promotion.

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In principle it sounds ok, what you are meaning. But now come on, Kaio and Chiyotaikai really aren't down to maegashira joi-jin level (which basically means a strength level of a 6-9 expectation). Have you seen how Kaio swatted Kakizoe away today like a nasty bug? And why is that pesky Chiyotaikai-joi-jin 4-0 in all places?

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Simple answer, no. He does not have the necessary variety of technique or movement.

As for other prospects - Mokonami is one I have been watching for a while, and it does seem true that he has not developed his bulk and upper body strength, unlike his near contemporary Hakuho. Whatever Hakuho has been doing, Mokonami has obviously not been following...

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In principle it sounds ok, what you are meaning. But now come on, Kaio and Chiyotaikai really aren't down to maegashira joi-jin level (which basically means a strength level of a 6-9 expectation). Have you seen how Kaio swatted Kakizoe away today like a nasty bug? And why is that pesky Chiyotaikai-joi-jin 4-0 in all places?

And even if they're weak Ozeki who barely make kachi-koshi - that's still one Yokozuna, three strong Ozeki, two weak Ozeki, and one strong Sekiwake in Kotomitsuki...seven bouts that one might expect an Ozeki candidate to get 4 wins in, at most. At that point he'd still pretty much need to go 7-1 or 8-0 against the rest of the field, and do that for three straight tournaments, so saying that "3 [strong] O + 1Y is just begging for another Ozeki" is overstating the case quite a bit.

Edited by Asashosakari

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From a different thread

The big story of the basho will be Miyabiyama establishing himself for Ozeki re-promotion. Hakuho will have a little hangover from the 2 months of promotion parties. Oshu will work his way back into shape. The other three Ozeki not being in threat of demotion will punch the time clock and watch as the blob bulldozes his way back up to the top.

12 wins at the least. B-)

When Miyabiyama was promoted the first time 2 things were happening, the old guard was fading and Musashigawa beya was the bomb. Let's review what was going on last time he made it to Ozeki, Wakanohana retired, Takanonami was being demoted from Ozeki for the second time, Dejima, and Musoyama were forces to be reconned with. Maru was injured but Wakanoyama was at M2. There was not much strength in the upper Maegashira (example Asanowaka was rated at M1)(Akinoshima and Kotonishiki were shadows of themselves). It was not a period of great sumo (this was before Taka and Akebono started to bring it on strong for their fairwell tour). The old guard's second string Musoyama, Kaio and Takatoriki were stepping up and winning their first yushos as others were fading. Miyabiyama was a wunderkind who couldn't even have his hair tied in a decent topknot.

Today there are some similarities Kaio and Taikai could be heading out and Miyabi will get a pass this basho against Asashoryu. But there is so much hunger at the top. Oshu and Hakuho still have to justify their existance as ozeki with yushos and there are no Musashigawa rikishi to help him along.

I wish the guy luck but I don't see it happening.

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I would love to see him back at Ozeki, but don't know if it would happen.

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What's missing is the idea that our 'future retirees' are not fighting as strong as they were when last promoted

as previous mentioned Chiyo is not exactly sucking in the last 3 basho's, im not sure if you have noticed that. Tochi is in the midst of trying to make Yokozuna ....and while Kaio maybe on the verge of retiring, he is still better then any megashira (also as already mentioned). but i must ask you, who was it/will it be harder to get promoted? Kotooshu whom literally had kyuju ozeki every basho, or miyabiyama who has to get past Tochi, Hakuho, Oshu, Kaio, Asa and Chiyo plus kotomitsuki. ......

for Kotooshu's promotion: keep in mind Kotooshu does not fight Kotomitsuki, a sanyaku regular.....

in the first of his 3 basho's for consideration, everyone ranked above M1(all examples will be all rikishi ranked above M1): Chiyo was kyuju, tochi only won 9, hakuho went kyuju, Kotomitsuki went 7-8, and Kaio went 10-5. further Miyabi went 7-8 at that point. so Oshu only had 3 ozeki to fight at all and one was kyuju, while hakuho was gone too. everyone other then Asa did fairly poor. so his tough fights were Asa, Kaio and Tochi. just 3 tough fights while only needing 10 wins

in the second basho for his promotion:

Kaio goes Kyuju, Chiyo and Tochi win 10, Wakanosato goes kyuju, kotomitsuki wins 9, and futeno wins 5. so yet again Kotooshu has a tough fight against Asa, Chiyo, and Tochi. so he had 3 tough fights.

in the third basho for his promotion:

Tochi is Kyuju, Kaio wins 10, Chiyo wins 11. Kotomitsuki 8-7, tenho 8-7, hakuho 9-6. so his tough fights this time are Asa, Kaio, Chiyo, and maybe hakuho can be added to this(he hasnt quite reached his potential yet).

so to gain ozeki Kotooshu had 3 tough fights each basho, thats it. he doesnt need to win more then 1 of them to get promoted. every time there was at least one ozeki kyuju, and in all but the last one there was a sanyaku kyuju also.

NOW

in the unlikely event that Miyabiyama makes ozeki again....

in his first basho that MIGHT get consideration: Tochi is 12-3, Kotooshu is 9-6, Chiyo is 9-6, Kaio is 8-7, Hakuho is 13-2, Kotomitsuki is 8-7, Roho is 4-11 ....and Miyabiyama won 10 having to fight ALL of those people. so Asa plus everyone except Roho is 5 tough fights and 2 not as tough but still better then M1 fights in Kaio and kotomitsuki. out of 7 tough fights, to even get a chance at promotion he MUST beat at least 3 of those fighters.

in this basho: he has already beat Kaio and Kotomitsuki, and while Asa is gone, there are now 5 ozeki to beat insted of the 4 last time and the 3 Oshu had to fight for promotion. ....it is still possable for a kyuju to occur as it is early, but it looks like all the Ozeki might try to fight now that Asa is gone. this is their best chance to get a yusho, so all of them will likely be fighting very hard. so that makes for 3 strong ozeki, one decent ozeki, one "weak" ozeki, plus kotomitsuki. so that is 6 tough fights, and again he would likely have to beat half of them for a realistic chance at promotion.

the third is obviously speculation but i doubt more then one ozeki goes kyuju next time, and Asa likely will be back. so thats at least 6 hard fights again.

this is not to say that Kotooshu is not worthy of being an ozeki, but to put to rest "miyabiyama is fighting weak ozeki's whom are almost out the door" .....the banzuke right now is more stacked then it has been in a very long time. plus he is not getting help from not having to fighting heya-mates like he did before. earning an ozeki promotion right now would be highly impressive. i dont see how anyone could say it wouldnt be hard right now when all 3 of the strong ozeki are trying to get promoted right now and you still have King Asa at the top. if kotooshu's promotion is impressive, then why wouldnt Miyabiyama's be?...there arent 2 fighting ozeki anymore, there are 5, 4 at the least.

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