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Gusoyama

Haru Speculation

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So, what do people think will happen in the upcoming basho? Who's going to win the yusho? Will anyone get promoted? Any surprises?

My thoughts/predictions:

Tochiazuma drops 2 of his first 3 bouts, and finishes with a 12-3, but no promotion.

Hakuho self destructs, but still ends up with 9 wins, keeping his promotion hopes slimly alive.

Kotomitsuki has a 10 win basho

Kisenosato has a 10 win basho

Roho, Hokoturiki, Ama, and Kokkai have double digit loss bashos.

Kaio and Chiyotaikai both survive with 8-7 and 9-6 records.

Asashoryu will win it with a 14-1 record.

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Asashoryu surely doesn't win the yusho.

Interesting returning rikishi to high makushita. Ajigawa-duo Ama and Aminishiki surely are interesting at this level while Futeno also makes a return. Futeno has shown difficulties in getting his sumo back together and rarely succeeds in getting his hidari-yotsu but whenever he does, he is extremely strong. Lets hope his sumo is in groove and flow is devine.

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Why Gusoyama exclude Kotooshu from prediction. In Haru Hakuho and Tochiazuma are in hard presure because of promotions and Osh can gain good result. I think that hi will be in a yusho race again.

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I think this is an over for Kaio for sure - Intai. :-) Chiyotaikai will survive. (Applauding...) Hakuho - big question mark here. He have to focus more when he is facing lower ranked rikishi. There is also much difficult schedule this basho. I think he will fail with 9-6 record. Same situation with Kotooshu - 9 -6. I believe that it will be very successful basho for Kotoshogiku and Futeno. (Futeno...) I am seeing Futeno at Komusubi slot in Natsu with 10-5 or even 11-4 record. Tochiazuma 12-3 and jun-yusho. Promoted. ;-) Yusho goes to Asa. (Applauding...)

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Asa, barring an injury, will win in a walk. Kaio intai on day 1, no later than day 6. Tochi and Hakuho both 11-4. Oshu 12 at most. Taikai maybe 9. Roho and Kokkai both have strong basho. Hokey Rick and Futeno barely show up. Wakanosato 11 or 12. Ichinoya 4-3.

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Wow, a rather pessimistic view for everyone except Asashoryu. Just wondering who will Asashoryu lose to ? Kotooshu? You said nothing about him. Actually I am hoping Wakanosato to create a havoc on everyone.

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Yusho: Asashoryu - no doubt

Tochiazuma will lose 2-3 early and will either go for a small kk or dive

Hakuho will also lose 2-3 early but will make 9/10 in the end, but no promotion

Kaio will eventually fail to recover and intai, while Chiyotaikai will cheaply safe his rank one more time.

Kotoosho will profit from the lack of interest in his sumo and will jun-yusho

(last time i was absolutely sure, that Tochiazuma will yield up a kk and stay there, so take my guess not to serious)

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I didn't mention Kotooshu because I can't get a bead on him this basho. I'm guessing 9-10 wins, one of those over Asashoryu.

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THE YUSHO WILL BE WON BY EITHER HAKUHO OR KOTOOSHU.

mark my words. if i had to bet i would go with the former. asashoryu has still not recovered (reading between the lines) enough.

I agree. Hakuho sounds more determined than I have ever heard him sound. No idea what Kotooshu is up to, but he's got to do better than last time. Kaio to fold again. Tosh - who knows? I odn't think he will get the Yusho, but he might just do enough for promotion in the eyes of the Kyokai. Asa will get get injured again. He won't figure.

On the other hand, I could be completely wrong about everything!

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Kaio to fold again. Tosh - who knows? I odn't think he will get the Yusho, but he might just do enough for promotion in the eyes of the Kyokai. Asa will get get injured again. He won't figure.

If Kaio folds again, that will be the end of him. He will retire. So in a way you are saying he will retire.

Tosh? You mean Tochiazuma here? When I think of Tochiazuma, I used to think of WakanohanaIII. Wakanohana was Tochiazuma's hero and they both had a similar style (initially a similar body type). While watching the last basho, I realized Tochiazuma was almost 155 kg now, as heavy as Tamaoshima. Wakanohana III never got heavier than 135 kg or so that's 20 kg lighter than Tochiazuma now. It's possible that Tochiazuma could as heavy as 160 kg. Yokozuna Takanohana got to 160 kg and he looked pretty heavy and even sluggish at the weight.

I am not sure if it helps Tochiazuma to be this heavy. His sumo is not to dynamically overwhelm his opponents but getting down low and keep pushing from below and inside. It requires solid lower body but his is not exactly a yotsu-zumo style. Personnaly I think he could lose a bit of weight and that allows him to move around better and to respond quicker and better to his opponent's move. He seems to put too much emphasis on his tachiai and somehow he got in his head, he can't win unless he gets out much superior tachiai than his opponent. Since his sumo is more deliberate than others, he could recover if he can regain the speed he lost by going too heavy.

As for Asashoryu, injury or not, he will always figure as long as he shows up.

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I realized Tochiazuma was almost 155 kg now

Wow, that really seems too heavy for him, especially with the weak ankles.

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As for Asashoryu, injury or not, he will always figure as long as he shows up.

True. There is no reason to override Asa in yusho race. We don't really know how serious this injury is. BTW he kicked Kotooshu's ass with only one hand :-P

Edited by Shimpu

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Asashoryu 15-0 Yusho

Tochiazuma 11-4

Kotooshu 12-3 if knee gets healthy

Chiyotaikai 8-7 with a win on senshuraku

KaioU intai after day 4

Hakuho 13-2 and promotion

Kotomitsuki 12-3

both komosubi 9-6

Baruto Juryo Yusho

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Asashoryu 15-0 Yusho

Tochiazuma 11-4

Kotooshu 12-3 if knee gets healthy

Chiyotaikai 8-7 with a win on senshuraku

KaioU intai after day 4

Hakuho 13-2 and promotion

Kotomitsuki 12-3

both komosubi 9-6

Interesting exercise: how many of the joi-jin have to go MK to reach these numbers? Given they're feasible at all...

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So, what do people think will happen in the upcoming basho?

What will happen? I will go early on Day 8, nab some standing tickets for 1400yen, then enter the arena around midday, slinking my way up to the front, at about 2-3 pm, some overzealous attendant will come and wave his hands at me and shoo me back to the standing area, where I will proceed to find an empty masu seat when said attendant is not looking.

(Neener, neener...)

THE YUSHO WILL BE WON BY EITHER HAKUHO OR KOTOOSHU.

mark my words. if i had to bet i would go with the former.

consider them marked, but your marking words is not in the same league as Kintamayama staking his reputation on the line!

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consider them marked, but your marking words is not in the same league as Kintamayama staking his reputation on the line!

So, what about any prediction from our proven fortune-teller (14-1 Tochiazuma Yusho, Hatsu) (Punk rocker...)

Mr. Kintamayama, how do you see chance of Tochiazuma now? (Neener, neener...)

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Wow, that really seems too heavy for him, especially with the weak ankles.

Well, let's review the height and weight of top seven ranked rikishis of the Haru Basho banzuke. The data are taken from the Kyokai web page.

  East Height (cm) Weight (kg)
Asashoryu yokozuna

184

146

Tochiazuma ozeki

179

154

Chiyotaikai ozeki

181

158

Hakuho sekiwake

192

152

Roho Komusubi

195

152

Tamanoshima M1

189

157

Ama M2

185

113

  West Height (cm) Weight (kg)
   

Kotooshu ozeki

203

144

Kaio ozeki

185

173

Kotomitsuki sekiwake

182

156

Miyabiyama Komusubi

188

182

Kokkai M1

189

165

Hokutoriki M2

182

151

Edited by Jonosuke

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consider them marked, but your marking words is not in the same league as Kintamayama staking his reputation on the line!

So, what about any prediction from our proven fortune-teller (14-1 Tochiazuma Yusho, Hatsu) (Punk rocker...)

Mr. Kintamayama, how do you see chance of Tochiazuma now? (Neener, neener...)

Reporting from Switzerland and totaly dumbfounded by how much can happen in 4 days..

Tochiazuma, barring an injury that makes him go kyujo, will win at least 12. As for being promoted with twelve, I say it depends on how many came in before him and with what results.

Other than that, the rest is a total mystery to me. I would think Asa would yusho, but Im chickening out of being definite this time.. ;-)

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ok i'll give it a go myself.

Asashoryu should go back to his usual business and get the yusho 2-3 days before the end. He got injured last time but still managed to get 11 wins so why not 13 or 14 this time?

Tochiazuma is a mystery to me. I rarely manage to pick him in the pre-basho games when he is doing fine so my instinct cannot help me much on this one. Just for the record i chose to pick him in Bench as my Ozeki so you can make your own predictions ... :-D

Kaio will get 9 (or 10) wins and will continue tormenting himself and his fans ....

As for Chiyotaikai ... i really cannot remember the last time i thought of him prior to a basho (or even during one). He tends to become the "Kobo" of Makuuchi.

Kotooshu will have a good basho (should i change my bench sumo entry?). He will take advantage of the poor form of Kaio,Taikai and the mediocre joi-jin and will probabaly sneak to another jun-yusho or something. 11-12 wins won't surprise me. Anything more will be shocking ...

From the Sekiwakes i will pick Hakuho as a favourite for great things. He should get the wins he wants to become Ozeki if he abandons those tachi-ai experimentations. He has the quality to become an Ozeki but he should become more serious when it comes to winning a bout or trying new things in a honbasho.

Kotomitsuki is a major candidate for the 6 point spot in Zenjimoto's inside-out hoshitori. 8-7 from him and a colourless display. (sorry Nishi)

i cannot figure who will be better this basho between Roho and Miyabiyama. Roho is stronger (great nage-moves last basho) but lacks a lot to consider him a candidate for a KK from Komusubi. Miyabiyama changed my image of him in the last couple of basho when he showed solid oshi-sumo and he improved his balance. He is definately not the "belly-first" type of rikishi that he used to be (Tosanoumi reigns in the particular category for the time being). Small MK for Roho and small KK (??) for Miya.

From M1 to M5 :

If Tamanoshima wasn;t injured and Kokkai didn't have that tragic death in his family i would give them a chance to do well this time. Now i find it hard to believe that any of them could get a KK. Although ... Tamanoshima did good last time with his arm in worse shape and Kokkai might give it all to dedicate the performance to his father .... ok i give up in their case.

Hokutoriki will be a ragdoll for the sanyaku. Anyone who thinks differently is not watching sumo. 5 wins max but i cannot imagine against who. Dejima is one for sure ... and Futeno maybe ???

Ama is still out of his league up there. His technique could give him a couple of good wins but his body cannot help him much with those 150+ kilo monsters.

Dejima and Kyukutenho are looking more and more tired during bashos. They are probably sick of all of these and to tell you the truth i am a bit sick of seing their lacklustre sumo in the joi-jin. Small KKs or Mks for them ... chose whatever pleases you.

Tokitsuumi surprised all of us last time but he doesn;t have that element this time around. All of his opponents will be more cautious against him. Big Mac for him ....

so we are down to the last three ... Aminishiki, Iwakiyama and Futeno.

Futeno (who i recently noticed that he has the best tachi-ai posture than anyone) looks younger than 25 when i watch him fight. He misses a killer instinct that should be a problem when you are like Kisenosato but he was a college yokozuna and should be more intimidating than he is. He will probably have many problems this basho.

Aminishiki is back in form and i really like to watch him fight. He can beat anyone now that he has built up his body. I would love to see him get a KK.

Iwakiyama disappointed me last basho. I always expect more from him. He has a lot of problems with his balance. If he snaps out of his slump this time around i expect him to be the best joi-jin rikishi ....

the rest

Kakizoe will have a better basho if all the Ozekis stay healthy. If they go kyujo/intai/whatever he will face tougher opposition and he will have problems. Only one thing is certain for him this basho. He WILL lose to Iwakiyama.

Tokitenku showed us brilliance for a while and now he is back to his usual business. Those rumours about him becoming Ozeki-Yokozuna-Japan's prime minister are to be taken with a pinch of salt ... He could get 8-9 wins though.

I am growing a dislike for Kisenosato as i watch him more and more. I really hate his crying when he loses. He makes Takamisakari likeable if you put them side by side. Anyway ... from M7 he should get 7 wins at least.

if Kasugao is fine with his health i expect to see him get 8-9 wins. He is extremely strong when not injured and it is due time to see him high in the joi-jin or even sanyaku soimeday.

Kotoshogiku has all the potential to become REALLY good. He is far better than Kisenosato in my book and i believe HE is the "great japanese hope". He had problems with his footwork last basho but managed to get the KK. He should be better this time.

Asasekiryu is my big disappointment. He is a typical elevator rikishi. Nothing more than 8 wins. Even more probably a MK ... Pitty.

Jumonji is in his best position to do good in a basho. Anywhere higher makes KK a "no-no". 8-7 or 7-8.

i have started to like Takekaze in the last year and i enjoy his cannonball style. Banzuke position leaves chances for something good.

Tochinohana looked good two basho ago and he should have better results than Hatsu now that the opposition is similar to his level ....

Toyonoshima looks to have found his place on the banzuke. i have no fears for him when he is around m10-m12 but i neither have great hopes. He should have no problem getting his 8 or even his 6-7 just to remain in this neighbourhood on the banzuke.

Wakanosato MUST win in double digits. Anything less will be dissapointing.

Hakurozan is probably the worse rikishi in the makuuchi (ok i realise it is a bit of an overstatement) but i really cannot understand how he can win matches. He is tall and that's all ....

and i really hate his morote....

i haven't watched Tochinonada last basho so i have no idea what to expect from him. If he is physically well i guess he is in a good position to get many wins. I will stretch my luck and predict 10 wins for Nada.

Kyokushuzan worries me a bit. He should have his "scheduled" KK last basho and avoid the troubles this time. If he messes again (which i doubt with the rikishi i see in the bottom of Makuuchi) then i don't know what ....

Kasuganishiki will get 9 wins. Period.

Toyozakura , who was described once as the "sultan of sweat", should get a KK. He failed last time when he started really badly, so this time he has a better chance. I get the imression from him that his natural position on the banzuke is slightly higher.

his brother Kitazakura surprised me last basho but i doubt he will do it again. I mean that i expect him to get the KK easily this time. I insist that the bottom of Makuuchi is hopeless ....

so let's go to the hopeless:

with the exception of Ushiomaru who might have a good basho i expect MKs from all the rest rikishi at the bottom (Tamakasuga ,Otsukasa ,Yoshikaze ,Buyuzan ).

They are either too old or too young to make an impression. I hope they make a fool out of me and get sanshos all of them .....

this is it ......

that's the way i see it and as you can understand this could be far from the reality. I tend to prove my inability to predict these things in all the pre-basho games .... (Mono-ii...)

HAVE A NICE BASHO !!!!!!!!!

EDIT: with the continuous reports on Kotooshu's lack of proper keiko due to his injury, i must reconsider my views on him ...

anyway we'll have to wait and see. I should probably stick to Azuma in Bench though ..... ;-)

Edited by aderechelsea

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