Sumo Stock Exchange Game?

[Gusoyama 105]

For several years now, I've been playing on the Hollywood Stock Exchange, a fictional stock exchange that lets you trade shares in your favorite films, actors, producers, etc. http://www.hsx.com/about/whatishsx.htm I thought that we might be able to do something similar with sumo. I only wish I was a better programmer, so I could make this idea a reality.

Here's what I have thought of so far: Each player gets a certain amount of fictional money to use to buy and sell rikishi, heya, options and warrants(more on this later). The overall "standings" for the game are sorted by total portfolio worth.

Rikishi are given an initial cost when they first enter sumo, which can be set by a group of people, or by a specific formula. Factors for IPO price could be family history, age, nation of origin, high school/amateur results, size, etc. Existing rikishi can be given an IPO based on their records, awards, etc. Once an initial price is set, the stock price for each rikishi would go up and down according to two factors: Performance and Perception. Wins, yusho wins, kachi-koshi, and special prizes could boost prices, while losses, kyujo, and make-koshi would bring down a price. Promotions and demotions could also affect price, perhaps. Perception of the rikishi's performance/outlook could also affect the price, raising a certain amount whenever X number of stock are bought, falling whenever Y number of stock are sold. Stocks split when they hit a certain level, reverse split when they get too low.

e.g.(all numbers theoretical) Kotomitsuki's stock is at $320 before the basho. I buy 1000 shares, for a worth of $320,000. Several other people buy his stock at $320, because the papers are touting that he's going to have a great basho. Even before the basho, 50,000 shares are bought, bringing his price up to $325.(assuming a $1 raise for every 10,000 shares bought ) Mickey then goes 5-1, raising his worth to $329.(+$1 for each win, -$1 for each loss) Another 60,000 shares are bought in that time, bringing his price up to $335. My net worth is now $335,000! I'm sitting pretty, so I sell 5,000 shares, and I have $167,500 cash, $167,500 in stock. Unfortuately, Mickey chokes, goes 6-9, and plummets to $315(8 losses=-$8, 1 win=+$1, MK=-$3, and 200,000 shares were sold). My cash is still $167,500, but my stock is only worth $157,500. My net worth is $325,000, so I'm still up $5000, but took a hit from my highest point.

I envision heya being like funds, based on the overall performance of a group of individuals, rather than the individuals themselves. The initial and ongoing price could be the average price of the rikishi in the heya, pretty straight forward.

Options would be short term investments based around a certain event, such as "Kotooshu gets 10 wins this basho", or "Baruto makes it to sanyaku in 2006", and have specific payouts, or strike points, depending on the length of the event and the type of event. Calls and puts can be bought, depending on whether you think that the event will come true or not. The price you pay for call and put stocks vary only by the amount of stock traded.

e.g.: "Kotooshu gets 10 wins this basho" has a strike point of $15, meaning you'll get $15 for each share you bought, regardless of the price you bought them at. The price at the beginning of the basho was set at $2. You buy 1000 shares. Kotooshu starts winning, people start buying, and the price goes up to $10 by day 9, when he is 8-1. You buy another 1000 shares, for a total of 2000 shares, at an average price of $6. Kotooshu gets his 10th win, you cash out for $30000(2000 * $15), or a profit of $18000. If he doesn't get that 10th win, you get 0, and you're out that $12000.

Warrants would be longer term investments based on a certain performance barrier, such as "Number of wins Asashoryu gets this year", or "Number of fusen wins this year". Again the price is set when the IPO is made, and will go up or down depending on the number of shares bought and sold. Cash-out prices are given at the end of the event, so if Asa gets 70 wins, the stock cashes out at $70.

I know that was a long-winded and somewhat confusing explanation, but I think in theory, it could work.

Edited December 28, 2005 by Gusoyama

[Jejima 1,498]

This sounds like a good, original idea for a game. I would definitely give it a whirl (I am not worthy...)

It has the advantage over other games in that it could be played between bashos too. (No reason to stop buying or selling rikishi then - maybe even factor in TV appearances / newspaper reports into it some how, or performances in those TV special 2 day events (Clapping wildly...)

How much would the workload be for the admin?

[Torideyama 33]

Sorry, count me out. Sounds too much like work, and I have a hard enough time trying to get my UDH lineup right (see my ranking).

Torideyama

[Gusoyama 105]

How much would the workload be for the admin?

I don't think it would be all that much. Once you got the formulas in place, I believe all that would need to be done is minor admin stuff, and setting prices for new rikishi, warrants, and options.

That being said, actually getting it set up would be an enormous project. :-(

[Kintamayama 47,347]

I got dizzy just reading the rules. I doubt there will be many players, as us guys with no idea about the workings of the stock exchange won't start getting into it for the sole purpose of playing a Sumo game.

I may be totally wrong, but if you have more than 20 players, I'll eat my hat and join too.

As long as there are no clones/drones/stand-ins, of course..

Edited December 29, 2005 by Kintamayama

[Asashosakari 20,288]

I don't think it would be all that much. Once you got the formulas in place, I believe all that would need to be done is minor admin stuff, and setting prices for new rikishi, warrants, and options.

Yeah, just like the work needed for Draft Sumo dwindled to practically zero once you got it set up initially, eh? :-( Snarking aside, as neat as the idea may be, this whole thing sounds like a) an administrative nightmare, and b) pretty much like any other sumo game in its results since I doubt you'll get a viable market simulation going with the usual number of sumo gamers that could be interested in a highly complex game. (By "viable" I mean "does not simply approximate people's Hoshitori selections because there are no real constraints on what people are able to buy".)

BTW, what I was missing in your initial outline was how the inter-player trading model is supposed to work, or if there's even supposed to be such a thing - your Kotomitsuki example sounded like there are infinite numbers of shares, which wouldn't be much of a market game. Of course, if shares are limited, there's going to be a huge first mover's advantage if the game starts while Asashoryu is still dominating.

At any rate, my gut feeling as a gamer is along Torideyama's...the whole thing sounds very much like work to me, and my interest in perpetual games isn't very high to begin with, I'm afraid.

[Itachi 396]

The concept is very interesting to me but I expect that it will remain a dream. There probably aren't many who would invest their time learning how to play the game and even fewer who would keep up with it.

If someone actually put this game together, I'd find it hard to resist playing but I'm kind of maxed out on my sumo gaming time as it is so it would be difficult to stick with it.

Good idea though!

Itachi

[Zenjimoto 40]

I'd probably try any new game, but I would love to see more than anything your programming skills applied to resurrect OddSumo (I am not worthy...) If only some one could get ahold of Kojamuri and get the source code released, that would be a real joy! (Zabuton flying...)

CHeers

Zenjimoto

Edited January 2, 2006 by Zenjimoto