Kotooshu promotion scenario

[Araiguma_Rascal 0]

It looks like Kotooshu can be promoted to Ozeki if he has a good tournament.

I checked the last three tournaments:

In May he was ranked M5e and had a 10-5 record.

In July he was ranked Ke and had a 12-3 record.

In September he was ranked Se and had a 13-2 record.

So this tournament, 8 wins would be 33 over 3 tournaments, but my feeling is that he will probably need at least 9 wins for promotion.

Does anyone have a feeling about exactly how many wins would be enough?

[Terarno 46]

Mmmmh... 10 would be a minimum, I think. And not ugly ones, by dancing around the dohyo.

A promotion with 9-6 and not being part of the Yusho race would be weird, right ?

[Sasanishiki 57]

Not based on statistical precendents, but rather on gut feeling, I think he would need double digits. Basically he should be doing ideal "Ozeki-like" sumo to be promoted to that level. To me that implies double digit wins, strong sumo style and in the hunt for the yusho. I think they will take the first two of these categories (Double digits and style) as the main criteria, even if he is not in the hunt for the yusho.

Once he is an Ozeki he can worry about the 8-7 and 9-6 (and even some 7-8 results as recent Ozeki have shown) (Whistling...)

[YukataNinja 0]

I remember reading on this board that his oyakata said something onlong the lines it would take 10 wins this basho (this was right at the end of last basho).

[Araiguma_Rascal 0]

Not based on statistical precendents, but rather on gut feeling, I think he would need double digits. Basically he should be doing ideal "Ozeki-like" sumo to be promoted to that level. To me that implies double digit wins, strong sumo style and in the hunt for the yusho. I think they will take the first two of these categories (Double digits and style) as the main criteria, even if he is not in the hunt for the yusho.

Once he is an Ozeki he can worry about the 8-7 and 9-6 (and even some 7-8 results as recent Ozeki have shown) ;-)

(Sigh...)

Clearly it is much easier to remain an Ozeki than it is to become an Ozeki. (Even after 2 consecutive makekoshi, one 10-win tournament can save you, I wonder if that will be Kaio's last hope if he can't manage 8 wins this time?) All the current group of Ozeki have been managing to barely meet the minimum requirements for a long time it seems. Of course this is because they are often injured, but still.

So, the general consensus is 10 wins or more will be enough (with good sumo), and 9 will not be enough.

I bet the Kyokai is hoping he makes it. Sumo needs a new star to increase the popularity I think.

[Faustonowaka 112]

He needs 10 wins, no doubt about it. And even then, backpedalling like he did last basho won't do his promotion chances any good. Straight forward sumo and 11 wins = certain promotion. And even if he collapses and can only scrape out a mere 8-7 he's still got a chance in January.

[Asashosakari 18,783]

Given that nobody has ever been promoted to Ozeki with less than 10-5 in the third basho since the advent of the 15-day tournaments, even back in the 1950s and 1960s when it was much easier to get promoted (sometimes just 28 wins over three basho etc.), I think it's very safe to say that 10-5 is the absolute minimum.

And even if he collapses and can only scrape out a mere 8-7 he's still got a chance in January.

Well, that's the Kotomitsuki case then. 13-8-? or 13-9-? would be very borderline again, unless Osh were to have a really good January tournament.

Edited November 2, 2005 by Asashosakari

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

I don't think so. The Kyokai has shown with Kotomitsuki that they will only promote to ozeki when they truly believe he will succeed. So even ten wins might not be enough depending on Kyokai's believe. Historically seen a good rate of ozeki continue to become yokozuna, but lately it has gotten a bit dry. Since Haru 1994 (or since Haru 1999 as there were none at all for five years) there were seven promotions to ozeki with only Asashoryu going on to the next level. And it isn't looking like Chiyotaikai, Dejima, Miyabiyama, Kaio or Tochiazuma will get to that. Musoyama even is retired already. Kaio, Chiyotaikai and Tochiazuma at least weren't weak ozeki, but no yokozuna either. So I understand the intention to become conservative.

Edited November 2, 2005 by Doitsuyama

[Asojima 2,870]

. if he gets ten wins promotion is a lock.

(Sigh...)

[Jakusotsu 5,806]

I disagree with Doitsuyama-zeki there. The NSK can't possibly afford to deny Kotooshu promotion after a 12-3 jun-yusho, 13-2 jun-yusho, 10-5 streak all at sanyaku level without hell breaking loose about the ole xenophobia plot again.

But then again, when did the NSK ever care about disrupting our little hell... (Sigh...)

[Ryukaze 0]

The kyokai may be a little more demanding of him (i.e. promoting another foreigner to the lofty rank of Ozeki), but at the same time with the current (and stagnant...) state of the 3 Ozeki at the moment this may balance out. I think he'll need at least a good strong 10-11 wins though (with no pussying around) to get promoted. Who knows though he may just collapse under the pressure like Hakuho, guess we'll see......

Also is it just me or does anyone else think that Kaio will be gone after Kyushu? At what 33 now and with his chronic back and now leg injuries piling up I think he may be planning for one last hurrah in his hometown and then call it good.....................?????

[Asashosakari 18,783]

I disagree with Doitsuyama-zeki there. The NSK can't possibly afford to deny Kotooshu promotion after a 12-3 jun-yusho, 13-2 jun-yusho, 10-5 streak all at sanyaku level without hell breaking loose about the ole xenophobia plot again.

Especially considering that with the current criteria for Yokozuna promotion, 12-3, 13-2 was only one win short of that, so the Kyokai needs to be careful not to make Ozeki promotion too difficult. If 13-2, 8-7, 13-2 was good enough for Akebono in a similarly stagnant time period, 35 wins with all double-digits really should be all it takes.

[aderechelsea 124]

if it was up to me i wouldn't promote him with 10 wins....

a minimum of 11 wins and with only two rikishi above him would be very nice. I would then forget about that henka thing with Miyabiyama and all those borderline wins ....

BUT i am not to decide who gets to become Ozeki so .... don't mind me.

if it was up to me be certain that Kaiho would be and Ozeki a long time ago .... (Nodding yes...)

[Fujisan 530]

And it isn't looking like Chiyotaikai, Dejima, Miyabiyama, Kaio or Tochiazuma will get to that. Musoyama even is retired already. Kaio, Chiyotaikai and Tochiazuma at least weren't weak ozeki, but no yokozuna either. So I understand the intention to become conservative.

The criteria for Yokozuna being stricter now I think it is logical that the criteria for Ozeki promotion should be stricter too. (Nodding yes...)

I personally think that in their prime our reigning Ozekis would have been a match for many of the Yokozunas of the past. (Laughing...)

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

I personally think that in their prime our reigning Ozekis would have been a match for many of the Yokozunas of the past. (Nodding yes...)

Well, I have published a strength analysis on a historical side in this forum. Unfortunately this doesn't support your view. Good ozeki, but worse than almost all yokozuna since 1957.

[Fujisan 530]

Well, I have published a strength analysis on a historical side in this forum. Unfortunately this doesn't support your view. Good ozeki, but worse than almost all yokozuna since 1957.

Can you show me that,or tell me where it is?

[Jejima 1,313]

I think the third basho is the most important of the three. I think double digits is almost certainly a must. I'm in the camp that thinks 10 might be enough, but it depends on the quality of the sumo (when wins by henkas do not count in favour for him), and who he loses to.

11 wins is more likely, but again I could imagine instances of him not being promoted (again quality of sumo, losing to two or three low ranked guys).

12 wins and above is probably a certainty as he should have a share of at least the Jun-Yusho with that number, and have been challenging for the Yusho throughout (as an Ozeki is meant to do).

I also think that Kaio could be a factor here. If Kaio retires during the basho, then Osh is more likely to get the nod. If Kaio has a great basho, blowing away Osh in both their head-to-head and overall record, then Osh is less likely to get promoted. Just gut feelings (Nodding yes...)

[Shimpu 0]

the main doubt that remains with kotooshu is his temperament

True... Success starts in mind. Sato, Kaio and Hakuho will be there (i hope in shape)... Difficult task if you ask me... (Nodding yes...)

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

Well, I have published a strength analysis on a historical side in this forum. Unfortunately this doesn't support your view. Good ozeki, but worse than almost all yokozuna since 1957.

Can you show me that,or tell me where it is?

Of course: Even More Historical Rikishi Strength Analysis

Edited November 3, 2005 by Doitsuyama

[Guest masamune2005]

of course as a choker he would fit right in with the current crop of ozeki

labelling the current ozekis 'chokers' is too good for them. oshu is definately a choker--he has been good through the first week and horrible at finishing...in contrast to the ozeki who lose simple bouts to rank-and-filers when there's no pressure then become annoyingly good when crunch time comes and they have to stave off their intai. its the rest of the time they have been sucking (in the last year at least.)

[Jakusotsu 5,806]

oshu is definately a choker

A choker who just had his 18th career basho and only one make-koshi so far, mind You!

(Heck, why do I recently find myself defending the "Bulgarian Crane*"?)

*by courtesy of a certain German Eurosport commentator

[Guest Mitsuhokkai]

I think we're all being a bit harsh on Osh here. Let's not lose track of the fact that should he make Ozeki, it will be the fastest rise ever. If he wins one of the next few basho, it will be the fastest yusho ever. While I personally think that the records Asashoryu can break in the next basho are more impressive, I don't think we should take anything away from Osh.

He's still very young, and it's not surprising that the pressure has overwhelmed him in his first few big chances. Takanohana going 4-11 in his first makuuchi basho, anyone? He will learn.

[Asashosakari 18,783]

Well, I've complained often enough about fans who measure success and failure in months rather than years and jump to conclusions ("Next yokozuna!" after one good basho, etc.) on the basis of, well, nothing, so I'll just say that I agree completely with Mitsuhokkai. Nobody talks about Asashoryu's first two unspectacular sanyaku basho anymore, and nobody will talk about Osh's 4-11 anymore if he makes Ozeki this month.

[Hashira 0]

Well, I've complained often enough about fans who measure success and failure in months rather than years and jump to conclusions ("Next yokozuna!" after one good basho, etc.) on the basis of, well, nothing, so I'll just say that I agree completely with Mitsuhokkai. Nobody talks about Asashoryu's first two unspectacular sanyaku basho anymore, and nobody will talk about Osh's 4-11 anymore if he makes Ozeki this month.

i think this is a danger of new sumo fans. I did this inmy earlier days, and have still only been watching sumo for less than five years, but now realize that there are many streaks, and try not to get too excited.

that being said- would love to see Kotooshuu get 11 this basho (which i think would be enough) 10 is a perhaps, depending on the quality, and what other people do