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Baruto in makushita

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This ONE GREAT HOPE is gone for now to wait next time! Sadly!!! Couldn't see the b out therefor can't say what happened .. :'-(

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DAY 7

Jk40e

Edited by Senpai

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Sorry, no Baruto movie this time. In the last days the streaming started only after the Juryo dohyo-iri, so this was to be expected as Hochiyama-Baruto was the last bout before it.

But I have uploaded the Makushita and Juryo bouts from today's stream. Special - Makuuchi East dohyo-iri with kesho-mawashi in relative detail.

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This ONE GREAT HOPE is gone for now to wait next time! Sadly!!! Couldn't see the b out therefor can't say what happened .. :'-(

A promotion from 6w with a 6-1 is still a remote possibility-it has happened before (Katayama, May 2004). It all depends on what happens above him and the number of demotions, of course, doh.. At the moment, only three rikishi seem destined for promotion. There are three 1-3 rikishi and one 0-4 guy, so they're pretty much out. There are two with a 2-2 (one of them is Gojourou, I'd count him out) and one 3-1 guy. And of course, the guy that beat him today, though ranked lower, can be promoted with a 7-0. As for Juryo demotions, Sumanofuji is pretty much gone, as is Hayateumi. The others-still too early, but I'm betting we'll have 4 demotions.

Anything is still possible. These instances are pretty rare. Of course, another loss and that's pretty much over, but let us remain optimistic.

Edited by Kintamayama

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Takahashi continues beating his opponents as the number of rikishi with no losses decreases fast. Masutoo and Orora got their 3rd loss and are near to MK. BTW Orora was upset by his another russian Amuru. Maenoyu meanwhile managed to get a win to prevent getting MK on day 9 already. Sawai shows no marks of weaknesses beating today chinaman Sokokurai and is only rikishi with Takahashi among prospects without no losses this basho. In makushita Kurazono got his first this basho in the time when Kimurayama, Mokonami and Shiraishi got their 4th and the KK in the same time. With this Shiraishi for sure got promotion to the juryo next basho. In the big fight today Baruto won against Raiko .. both of them showing good wrestling this basho but both have slim chances to get promotion.

DAY 9
Jk40e  TAKAHASHI (5-0)    -       Jk43w  Kotoemoto (4-1)
Jd19w  Dainin (3-2)       -       Jd20w  MASUTOO (2-3)
Sd5w   MAENOYU (2-3)      -       Sd8e   Takakitamura (1-4)
Sd12w  Amuru (3-2)        -       Sd9e   ORORA (2-3)
Sd61w  SAWAI (5-0)        -       Sd54w  Sokokurai (4-1)
Ms57w  SHIBUYA (3-2)      -       Ms56w  Kotonomine (2-3)
Ms49e  KURAZONO (1-4)     -       Sd1w   Tokinoboru (0-5)
Ms45w  KIMURAYAMA (4-1)   -       Ms50e  Hoshihikari (3-2)
Ms36w  Matsumidori (3-2)  -       Ms39w  KAGAYA (2-3)
Ms19w  MOKONAMI (4-1)     -       Ms25w  Kirinowaka (3-2)
Ms8e   HOMASHO (3-2)      -       Ms9w   Dewanosato (2-3)
Ms4w   Dairaido (3-2)     -       Ms7w   KAKURYU (2-3)
Ms6w   BARUTO (4-1)       -       Ms2e   Raiko (3-2)
Ms1e   SHIRAISHI (4-1)    -       Ms5e   Ryuho (3-2)

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I wouldn't call Raiko's promotion chances slim. In fact he basically just needs another win out of two.

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I wouldn't call Raiko's promotion chances slim. In fact he basically just needs another win out of two.

OK, he has good chances if he gets KK and Maikaze will fail to get KK, Hokutojo won't finish with 6-1 record and Hochiyama won't get yusho. That all if there will be only 4 demotions from juryo and there is also factor of how higher powers will see this and make the new banzuke. So lots of maybe's and time will show. (Applauding...)

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OK, he has good chances if he gets KK and Maikaze will fail to get KK, Hokutojo won't finish with 6-1 record and Hochiyama won't get yusho. That all if there will be only 4 demotions from juryo and there is also factor of how higher powers will see this and make the new banzuke. So lots of maybe's and time will show.
Edited by Asashosakari

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I wouldn't call Raiko's promotion chances slim. In fact he basically just needs another win out of two.

OK, he has good chances if he gets KK and Maikaze will fail to get KK, Hokutojo won't finish with 6-1 record and Hochiyama won't get yusho. That all if there will be only 4 demotions from juryo and there is also factor of how higher powers will see this and make the new banzuke. So lots of maybe's and time will show. :-|

I say you are underestimating a 4-3 from Ms2e. In Heisei 34 rikishi had a 4-3 at Ms2e, 25 got promoted to Juryo. And most of the nine were from 1989 to 1994 when promotions generally were stricter. The last case for staying in Makushita was 1999.

For this basho, I really don't see why a 4-3 from Ms2e should stay as there aren't a lot of promotion candidates in first place and there seem to be enough demotions from Juryo.

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Given the likely demotees from Juryo, and the records for rikishis above Baruto in Makushita, do you guys expect him to earn a promotion to Juryo, if he wins his next two bouts?

I'm not a Juryo promotion/demotion expert but, I would say so.

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Given the likely demotees from Juryo, and the records for rikishis above Baruto in Makushita, do you guys expect him to earn a promotion to Juryo, if he wins his next two bouts?

I'm not a Juryo promotion/demotion expert but, I would say so.

We are looking at maybe three or four demotees (Hayateumi, Sumanofuji plus none or some of Chiyohakuho, Chiyotenzan, Yotsukasa etc.) . Should it stop at three will Baruto have pretty much zero chance to get promoted. Shiraishi, Raiko and Masatsukasa all look good for promotion and Baruto's chance would be to get in as fourth (or fifth). I see it as relatively likely that at least one of Maikaze, Tamamitsukuni, Hokutojo or Hochiyama will get what they need to get in front of Baruto (4-3, 4-3, 6-1 or 7-0 respectively) and then Baruto should again have more or less zero chance. Otherwise it could come down to a comparison between Baruto and Dairaido or Ryuho if they get 5-2.

In short, I think Baruto has a very slim, but still existent chance to get promoted. What's most important for him is that there are several more demotees than right now expected for him to have a chance, and of course that he must win his last two.

Edited by Yubiquitoyama

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Given the likely demotees from Juryo, and the records for rikishis above Baruto in Makushita, do you guys expect him to earn a promotion to Juryo, if he wins his next two bouts?

I'm not a Juryo promotion/demotion expert but, I would say so.

Let's see, who can be ahead of Baruto in the promotion line, if he scores 6-1?

Ms1e Shiraishi 4-1 in any case

Ms3w Masatsukasa 4-1, even 4-3 would likely put him ahead of Baruto

Ms2e Raiko 3-2, needs one win

Ms9e Hochiyama 5-0, needs two wins

Ms1w Maikaze 2-3, needs two wins

Ms2w Tamamitsukuni, needs two wins

Ms4w Dairaido 3-2, a 5-2 puts him likely ahead of Baruto

Ms5e Ryuho 3-2, same as Dairaido

Ms6e Hokutojo, 3-1, needs three wins. Ok, forget Hoktojo because he would fight Baruto next who has to win to get to 6-1.

So we have Shiraishi and Masatsukasa already ahead of Baruto, Raiko needing one win and five more who needs to win the rest. Suppose two of the last six make it, then Baruto already is number 5 in the line, which almost certainly is not enough for a Ms6 as Shiraishi had to learn the hard way last basho. So on the Makushita side alone Baruto needs a lot of luck just to become number 4.

The Juryo side isn't much better. Hayateumi will go down and Sumanofuji is very likely. But the rest is fighting hard to stay. Yotsukasa and Kinkaiyama are 3-6, but they just need a 6-9. Chiyotenzan is 4-5 and needs a 7-8. Chiyohakuho is 4-5 and needs a 8-7 which puts him in the most dangerous place of the rest, but he isn't looking bad and could make it.

In summary, if Baruto wins the last two bouts, it is still VERY unlikely that he gets promoted to Juryo, but Ms1 is a very nice place as well, as Shiraishi is showing this basho.

Oh, and I have a movie for Baruto today, he looked strong again. Very quickly he got a double handed mae-mitsu grip and Raiko had nothing to offer against the ensuing de-ashi. Will be uploaded later today.

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First of all, thanks Yubiquitoyama and Doitsuyama for your reviews (Enjoying a beer...)

Let's see, who can be ahead of Baruto in the promotion line, if he scores 6-1?

Ms1e Shiraishi 4-1 in any case

Ms3w Masatsukasa 4-1, even 4-3 would likely put him ahead of Baruto

<snip>

I'm curious about your comment regarding Masatsukasa. Does a 4-3 record at Ms3w sounds better than 6-1 at Ms6e? IMHO, that makes promotion from Makushita to Juryo harder than (maybe) Joijin ranks!

(well, that would be the "so called" Makushita wall many rikishis have trouble surpassing)

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I'm curious about your comment regarding Masatsukasa. Does a 4-3 record at Ms3w sounds better than 6-1 at Ms6e? IMHO, that makes promotion from Makushita to Juryo harder than (maybe) Joijin ranks!

(well, that would be the "so called" Makushita wall many rikishis have trouble surpassing)

Thats why so many sekitori often say the highlight of their careers was the day they were promoted from Makushita to Juryo. Upper Makushita really is a difficult barrier to get through.

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I'm curious about your comment regarding Masatsukasa. Does a 4-3 record at Ms3w sounds better than 6-1 at Ms6e? IMHO, that makes promotion from Makushita to Juryo harder than (maybe) Joijin ranks!

No, it's not really better, but for one thing, there's the "round thing through a square peg" effect. Because of the difference in promotion/demotion practices between the sekitori ranks and Makushita (e.g. a 7-8 gets you much less demoted than a 3-4), things get very snug at the top of Makushita since there just isn't enough upward mobility to promote everyone "properly", so you get these really close decisions where 6-1 is worth only a little more than a 4-3.

And beyond that, the Kyokai has made a conscious decision to treat Ms1-Ms5 as almost separate for promotion purposes. Going by the precedence cases, 6-1 vs. 4-3 is worth three additional ranks inside the Ms1-Ms5 area (e.g. Ms5w 6-1 gets promoted ahead of Ms2w 4-3), but only two ranks from outside the Ms1-Ms5 area (e.g. Ms6w 6-1 does not beat Ms3w 4-3).

Note that this only applies to the decision who gets promoted to Juryo: If neither the Ms6w 6-1 nor the Ms3w 4-3 get promoted, it's very likely that the 6-1 guy will end up higher in Makushita than the 4-3 guy. Confusing, yes. (Enjoying a beer...)

Edited by Asashosakari

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Baruto vs. Raiko bout is uploaded. The Juryo bouts too of course. Special today, as suggested from Mr. Golden Balls, Kitazakura from last shikiri until tegatana (his show never ends, just watch him after the tegatana).

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Special today, as suggested from Mr. Golden Balls, Kitazakura from last shikiri until tegatana (his show never ends, just watch him after the tegatana).

I particularly like the Asashoryu-like crouch he does immediately after the salt throw. (Nodding yes...) (Eating...)

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DAY 10
Jd64w  WAKANOHO (5-0)         yorikiri      Jd60w  Maeta (4-1)
Ms21w  Isobe (3-2)            hikiotoshi    Ms25e  TAKANOYAMA (2-3)
Ms23e  SATOYAMA (3-2)         okuridashi    Ms20e  Dewanofuji (2-3)
Ms16w  SURUGATSUKASA (3-2)    yorikiri      Ms13w  DEWAOTORI (2-3)
Ms11w  Musashiryu (3-2)       oshidashi     Ms13e  RYUO (2-3)

It was quiet day in the flanks of prospects as only Wakanoho with perfect record stepped on dohyo and kept clean sheet and is now 5-0 as Sawai and Takahashi managed to get yesterday. Satoyama got his third as did Surugatsukasa after bad start from the beginning of the basho.

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In jonokuchi no one from the leaders came to the dohyo. In the jonidan meanwhile Masutoo didn't show up and got his 4th loss. In sandanme Maenoyu fougth with his countryman for avoiding MK and failed. In makushita lose to Masatsukasa who secured promotion to juryo and Kakuryu won against Maikaze who now have to forget promotion with early MK.

DAY 11

Jd45w

Edited by Senpai

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Little more about promotion and demotion line between juryo and makushita.

So, talking about promotions and demotions after day 11 - things are starting to come together.

In makushita Shiraishi was first to secure the position to juryo already on day 9 even tough he lost today to Masatsukasa who got now the second spot to juryo with 5-1. Raiko also has now ticket to sekitorihood with win over Dairaido who had chance also but now with 3-3 is one of those for who the train has gone now, together with Maikaze (lost to Kakuryu) who got make-kochi today.

So, let's see again, who will be ahead of Baruto in the promotion line, if he scores 6-1?

Ms1e Shiraishi 4-2 ------ will be promoted already

Ms3w Masatsukasa 5-1 ------ will be promoted already

Ms2e Raiko 4-2 ------ will be promoted already

(who will be get best position in juryo will clear after last bout as they are pretty much in the same level at the moment)

And who are out after today!

Ms1w Maikaze 2-4, needs two wins but got another loss

Ms4w Dairaido 3-3, needed two wins also but got loss

Ms6e Hokutojo, 3-2, needed three wins but got already one loss instead and is out

So we have probably one more spot to full (or who knows as there are pretty confusing standing in juryo in my opinion!?). But Baruto has truly only theoretical chances to get promoted as there are several rikishi who are hunting for that spot and are in better position than big estonian at the moment.

Tamamitsukuni (3-3) needs on win to get that position, one win short is also Ryuho (4-2). But they all (including Baruto) can forget their thoughts about promotion because of the wild-card Hochiyama (6-0) who can go past all of them if he can win his last bout. As we can see there are options but they all depend on others lack of luck and of course Bart has to win himself and tomorrow is Daishoma (4-1) the next obstacle to climb over.

That all will count if there will be four demotions if not and there will be only three - the cards on hand right now can be changed. But that is unlikely if we look the standing in juryo right now. Is it even possible that there can be more demotees? Or is it impossible? Even in theorethical?

As we have 4 matches each in juryo to fight we can already count Hayateumi and Sumonofuji in for demotion. Chiyohakuho with 5-6 is likely to join them as he need 3 wins from his last 4 bouts. Chiyotenzan (5-6) is in little better situation with 2 wins short as is Yotsukasa (3-8) but the situation of one of them will change worse tomorrow as they face each other. And there are also Kinkayama with 3-8 in not much better situation but has slightly better options tomorrow against Sumonofuji to get another needed win.

So, we are looking 5 possible demotions, or am I wrong? But it can be only three or four too, depending on next 4 days. So should there be three spots to fill we might have very intresting situation if Hochiyama manage to win his last. Pretty clear situation with four demotees and intresting situation all again if 5 slots will open up giving Bart a chance.

And so we have very intresting days in makushita ahead with so much to decide. This basho looks to become very intresting indeed in makuuchi and in makushita also.

Edited by Senpai

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So, we are looking 5 possible demotions, or am I wrong?

Wakanoyama could fall if he goes winless from here on, as far as I can see, but one win and he should be safe.

Edited by Yubiquitoyama

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Wakanoyama could fall if he goes winless from here on, as far as I can see, but one win and he should be safe.

I think he'll need two more wins to stay. Nobody has stayed in Juryo after a 3-12 from a corresponding rank (i.e. J5 before the expansion) or lower since at least 1971. (Hakkeyoi query)

Edit: Ironically, Wakanoyama himself was on the receiving end of an even harsher demotion, exiting Juryo after a 3-12 from J4w once...and he's also been demoted from J5w with the same result, so he has lots of experience as far as that goes. (Shaking head...)

Edited by Asashosakari

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Wakanoyama could fall if he goes winless from here on, as far as I can see, but one win and he should be safe.

I think he'll need two more wins to stay. Nobody has stayed in Juryo after a 3-12 from a corresponding rank (i.e. J5 before the expansion) or lower since at least 1971. (Hakkeyoi query)

True, but partly because there haven't been very many 3-12 rikishi in the relevant area (for most of the time around J05w) during this time (and I get the impression that in the nineties they were a bit rougher on such a record than is the current situation). Oikari last May only dropped from J04w to J10w with a 3-12, so I think that if there is no clear promotion candidate from Makushita, Wakanoyama could still stay. Anyway, I admit I didn't check it thoroughly enough (although I did a quick-check) so I agree that to be safe he'll need two wins.

Edited by Yubiquitoyama

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Oikari last May only dropped from J04w to J10w with a 3-12

That was a seriously weird basho though that also saw Daishodai drop from J13e to only J14e with a 6-9, and Wakakosho stay in the division despite 7-8 at J14w. (Shaking head...) And they still had enough demotion candidates to have to promote somebody from below Ms5 (Ms6w Katayama 6-1). I don't think that case is indicative of a big shift in demotion practices. (Just look at Asanowaka recently, dropping 12 full ranks on 1-14.)

I agree though, if there's no clear-cut Makushita rikishi for Waka's spot, he could very well stay with 3-12. They've been rather rough on marginal promotion candidates lately, as Doitsuyama already reminded me today. (Enjoying a beer...)

Edited by Asashosakari

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So, if I understand correctly then I was right when saying that there might be more than 3-4 demotions if propable demotees won't get those needed wins and there will be enough makushita rikishi kyokai thinks are ready for promotion if there would possible 5 spots opening? Or will they stick on 4 demotions even if there will be 5 rikishi with enough bad result?

As we have quite strong rikishi to promote: Shiraishi, Masatsukasa, Raiko, Baruto, Tamamitsukuni, Ryuho and probably Hochiyama.

Or what?

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