Kotomitsuki to Ozeki after Nagoya

[Torideyama 18]

Just a poll to see how you feel about Kotomitsuki's chances of making Ozeki after the Nagoya basho. Let's see what you think.

[Takamueda 0]

he will get a 6-9 and the Ozeki hype will be over on nakabi, when he is 3-5.

[Kashunowaka 175]

he will get a 6-9 and the Ozeki hype will be over on nakabi, when he is 3-5.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

My feelings exactly. I hope I am wrong!

[Manekineko 200]

More or less as others say. I'll believe in Sadogatake ozeki when I see one! (Depressed...)

[Zuikakuyama 1]

I'll stick my neck out and say he gets 11 and gets promoted.

P.S. The people voting for the first choice seems a bit illogical. Assuming he gets zensho yusho, they cant deny him.

[Manekineko 200]

P.S.  The people voting for the first choice seems a bit illogical.  Assuming he gets zensho yusho, they cant deny him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That might be because there's no option: "He'll get 10 or more but still won't get promoted". I might have voted for that, and not "9 or less"

[Naganoyama 4,264]

mickey is a sumo god.

...

once when he actually had what was it? 34/35 wins over two basho

...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's what I call a sumo god! (Bleh!)

[Zuikakuyama 1]

P.S.

[Asashosakari 14,934]

But like I said, getting zensho and not getting promoted is really beyond the realm of logical possibilty.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, so is getting 13 or 14 and not being promoted, really.

Sidenote: Getting 14 wins without it being at least jun-yusho is pretty much impossible, too.

Almost forgot...I voted for 10 wins, thus narrowly missing out on promotion, but with another chance in September (where another 10 would probably do it then).

Edited June 28, 2005 by Asashosakari

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

I don't think Kotomitsuki will make Ozeki more than most others here (I really would like him to though), but as I understand it, that's not really what the poll is about. Therefore I voted 12 wins (no jun-yusho needed) because I think that would be enough. I think whatever Kitanoumi says now, they can't realistically deny him Ozeki after not one but two 34-win streaks.

[Zuikakuyama 1]

Thanks to Hakke Yoi, I did a search on the following:

(1) Promoted to Ozeki with the 1st basho at megashira ranks

There has been 9 such examples since WWII, the last one being Futahaguro in 1985. Out of the 57 ozekis since 1947, that is about 15% of all ozeki promotions. The lowest starting points is M4.

(2) Starting from Megashira, getting at least 33 wins and not getting promoted

In addition to Mickey's own example in '01, the only other comparable performances are:

(a) Wakanohana in '93 (34 wins staring from M3). I think he was probably too young and starting from M3 he needed to show an upward performance trend, but instead it was 10, 14, 10 wins.

(b) Takanosato in '90 (33 wins starting from M1). However, each performance is at a downward trend at 13, 11, 9 wins, so they had reason to doubt him.

Edited June 29, 2005 by Zuikakuyama

[Torideyama 18]

Nishinoshima is quite correct that this was the real thought behind this question. There has only been one instance of a Rikishi going M-K-S-O in the 15 tournament era. Here is my post from the SUMO LISTSERVER:

"Having researched the data on hakkeyoi.net, I find that only 1 person has ever gone from Maegashira to Komusubi to Sekiwake to Ozeki in 4 bashos during the 15 bout basho era. That was Tochihikari in January through September of 1962. He did this during a time when there were 2 - 4 Yokozunas, and 2 or more Ozekis and Sekiwakes during that 4 basho stretch. So, there was no shortages that required Tochihikari to be promoted quickly. Here is his record over the 4 basho:

1962.01 M4 11-4

1962.03 KW 10-5 Shukunsho (2nd)

1962.05 S2W 13-2J Shukunsho (3rd)

1962.07 O2W 11-4J

The qustion now becomes, can Kotomitsuki duplicate this feat in Nagoya. Here is his record over the last 2 bashos.

2005.3 M2E 9-6

2005.5 KE 13-2J Ginosho (6th)

2005.7 SW ???

Does an 11-4 (giving him 33 wins over 3 basho) do it? Or will he need more than that to overcome the 9-6 not being in Sanyaku?

I believe that if he can pull another 13-2, he gets promoted. 12-3 is borderline (maybe he gets promoted if it is a Junyusho?!?) I don't think 11-4 makes it, unless the world falls apart and he wins a yusho at 11-4.

I would be interested to hear any and all opinions on the matter.

Thank you.

Torideyama

Emmett Wayne"

i think the whole point is he is only on his second basho in sanyaku. the 13-2 was the first of three tournaments counted. i know there have been cases where someone came from maegashira but normally they don't and i think kitanoumi is just towing the party line here. anything short of 14 with a jun yusho and i really think they will wait (though i hope not). anyway mickey always does badly at home so i think we are looking at maybe 9 wins from him with a chance for ozeki promotion if he can get 11 in sept

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Asashosakari 14,934]

I believe that if he can pull another 13-2, he gets promoted. 12-3 is borderline (maybe he gets promoted if it is a Junyusho?!?) I don't think 11-4 makes it, unless the world falls apart and he wins a yusho at 11-4.

FWIW, nobody who started a 35-win run from anywhere in the meatgrinder was ever denied promotion to Ozeki (query). Hence my claim that it's all but impossible for him not to get promoted with another 13 win basho.

I agree that 12 is borderline (total 34), but given that it would be the second time he gets 34 in such a run starting from high Maegashira, I think he'd get in, especially since the results would be in the "correct" order this time, i.e. worst basho first.

11 wins...I don't know. I doubt it's enough, but it would be a great stepping stone for Aki basho. And as I said before, I'm reasonably sure that even the minimum 13+10+10 would get him promoted after Aki basho. In other words, all he needs now is consecutive 10-5's, which should be possible given the state of the competition. (Edit: Probably even something like 13+9+11 or 13+8+12 would be enough, considering it was enough for Wajima and Akebono under similar circumstances, e.g. periods with few Ozeki and Yokozuna).

One more point:

Nishinoshima is quite correct that this was the real thought behind this question.

Edited June 29, 2005 by Asashosakari

[Jejima 641]

Thanks to Hakke Yoi, I did a search on the following:

(1) Promoted to Ozeki with the 1st basho at megashira ranks

There has been 9 such examples since WWII, the last one being Futahaguro in 1985.  Out of the 57 ozekis since 1947, that is about 15% of all ozeki promotions.  The lowest starting points is M4.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

One of those 9 examples is a bit curious. Seems to a variation of the one basho at Sekiwake after demotion, bounce back...

[Faustonowaka 33]

A Yusho will do it.

If not, he needs at least 10 wins to have a chance in the next tournament.

[Torideyama 18]

P.S.

[Odoriou 0]

I miss the option "15, but only if yusho or junyusho".

In my opinion he will need 13 wins for promotion. ;-)

If Mickey had been in sanyaku for the last three bashos, 11-4 should be borderline (giving him 33 wins). But under theses conditions a 12-3 would make it a difficult decision. After the last remarks of the Rijicho it rather looks like a 12-3 may not be enough. That's why I came to the conclusion that Mickey needs a 13-2 again (which is almost an impossible task).

[hoshidango 0]

... they can't realistically deny him Ozeki after not one but two 34-win streaks.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think this really applies to him.

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

One of those 9 examples is a bit curious.

Edited July 1, 2005 by Yubiquitoyama

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

... they can't realistically deny him Ozeki after not one but two 34-win streaks.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think this really applies to him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It would be interesting to see how they do it (and I still say 12-3 is enough), so I wish for a 12-3 for him... Of course, I'd rather see him go zensho, but barring that...

[Fujisan 364]

No I dont think so,I think KK is enough to aim for at this point.

[Torideyama 18]

Just a poll to see how you feel about Kotomitsuki's chances of making Ozeki after the Nagoya basho.  Let's see what you think.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Congratulations to the 11 of you who have absolutely no faith in Kotomitsuki. You were right. Not only did he not get even 10 wins, he didn't even make KK.

[ilovesumo 12]

I am sad...

don't know why his mind isn't strong enough...why can't he relax? Everybody knows how great he is. (Being unsure...) How many more kicks will he need??? (I am not worthy...) damn.

A very bad Basho because of Kaiho and Mikey.