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Ozeki Hakuho

How many wins does he need next basho  

54 members have voted

  1. 1. How many wins does he need next basho

    • 10 (to make it 33 over 3 basho)
      1
    • 11
      15
    • 12 and a jun-Yusho
      27
    • at least a Yusho (13-2 or better)
      6
    • no promotion, regardless the number of wins
      3
    • who is Hakuho?
      1


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In the olden days, with Syd "Eurosport" Hoare as my main source of sumo info, I was under the impression that you needed to win a yusho (as a sekiwake, presumably) *and* have a decent score over three basho in order to get promoted. Strict rules are good, so I say - no ozekidom for Hakuho unless he wins the yusho in March! So there! :-O

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In the olden days, with Syd "Eurosport" Hoare as my main source of sumo info, I was under the impression that you needed to win a yusho (as a sekiwake, presumably) *and* have a decent score over three basho in order to get promoted. Strict rules are good, so I say - no ozekidom for Hakuho unless he wins the yusho in March! So there!  :-O

AFAIK, Yusho is not a requirement. I don't remember a Miyabiyama Yusho..

Edited by Kintamayama

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In the olden days, with Syd "Eurosport" Hoare as my main source of sumo info, I was under the impression that you needed to win a yusho (as a sekiwake, presumably) *and* have a decent score over three basho in order to get promoted. Strict rules are good, so I say - no ozekidom for Hakuho unless he wins the yusho in March! So there!

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I went for 12 wins. 35 wins should account for the run starting from m1 and lack of a longer makuuichi record, with each accounting for 1 additional win.

11 wins will likely mean that they will make him wait one more tournament, since 12-11-11 starting from m1 is not an extremely convincing case. And with the 22 wins built up in sanyaku, they can afford to be conservative, and make him prove his worth.

10 is definitely a no-no since it will then be a 12-11-10 downward trend starting from m1.

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11 wins won't be enough.

12 wins should be enough, even without a jun-yusho (but 12 wins would probably also mean a jun-yusho).

In fact, given Hakuho's level of sumo, I'm about sure he is able to obtain at least 13 wins. If he continues to appear as the new Taiho, he can't lose more than 3 bouts next basho. So he will become ozeki after next basho.

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The people in charge of Ozeki promotion have got to be the most inconsistant and wacky people on earth. Kotomistuki with *A* yusho, and 34 gets turned down, yet Chiyotai kai gets promoted with 32 (don't quote me on this) and a Yusho (in the 3rd of 3 basho). Miyabiyama gets in without a Yusho and so does Asashoryu and Tochiazuma.

I think they should be more consistant and come up with solid criteria.

He deserves it with 10 as he would have the set 33, but I think he'll need 11.

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i believe 11 wins are ok if he gets a jun-yusho but i "see" him getting those 12 shiroboshi and makes Ozeki by Natsu ...

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Now is as good a time as any and Hakuho seems good enough for Ozeki and more.

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I read in another thread that he had to have about 33 wins in 3 bashos, as Sanyaku... If they want to respect the regles, he should be promoted next... July?!?

Seriously, I bet for May!!!

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I'll go with 11 wins here. 12-11-11 would show the ability to maintain Ozeki-level results (something Kotomitsuki didn't) and I can't see them deny promotion with that, youngest Ozeki promotion ever or not.

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I read in another thread that he had to have about 33 wins in 3 bashos, as Sanyaku... If they want to respect the regles, he should be promoted next... July?!?

Seriously, I bet for May!!!

There are no rules, only guidelines.

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His basho at M1 should have been in Sanyaku anyway... Asashoryu got from Maegashira debut to Komusubi with a cheap 9-6, 9-6. (First prize...) Hakuho needed a 12-3, 11-4, 8-7 to arrive at M1. Quite a difference.

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His basho at M1 should have been in Sanyaku anyway... Asashoryu got from Maegashira debut to Komusubi with a cheap 9-6, 9-6. (Sigh...) Hakuho needed a 12-3, 11-4, 8-7 to arrive at M1. Quite a difference.

That is not exactly a fair comparison.

hakuho started makuuichi at m16 while asashoryu started at m12.

Of course the promotion/ demotion situation in each basho is different, so some luck does come into it.

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As for what will be enough, I think he will be promoted with 11 wins. It happens to be the same which I think should be required. He has shown what he's got and those 34 wins with no dips are good enough. The fact that the banzuke situation didn't promote him to sanyaku earlier should not be an issue in my opinion since he's had pretty much the same opposition all three basho.

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His basho at M1 should have been in Sanyaku anyway... Asashoryu got from Maegashira debut to Komusubi with a cheap 9-6, 9-6. (Sigh...) Hakuho needed a 12-3, 11-4, 8-7 to arrive at M1. Quite a difference.

That is not exactly a fair comparison.

hakuho started makuuichi at m16 while asashoryu started at m12.

Sure it's not fair, but it's biased towards Asashoryu, not Hakuho. Asa went up 12 ranks (M12->K) with 9-6, 9-6 for his first two basho, while Hakuho went up 13 ranks (M16->M3) with a much winning-er 12-3, 11-4. So their debut ranks aren't the deciding factor in this comparison, only banzuke luck is. If they weren't so darned conservative on promotions these days, a combined record of 23-7 really should have been enough for a Komusubi debut after two basho already, even from M16.

Edited by Asashosakari

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I have to nitpick with your statement Asashosakari.

Talking about "ranks" distorts the facts somewhat. A more accurate description would be the number of rikishi you jump over. So you are really jumping over double the people when you skip a rank (unless you are moving only from 3e to 2w).

And the differance between m3 and komusubi, is more accurately described as jumping over 6 other people. In other words, you had to be judged to be better than those 6 people if you make the jump from m3 to k.

And I think by virture of the fact that if you score an excellent record, then you had to jump over more people. This tends to make banzuke luck more pronounced because alot depends on those how those 2x(rank) people scores in front of you (and also how those 2x(rank) people behind you does too).

It just adds twice the uncertainty into the equation. And luck does play more of a part in those situations.

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I have to nitpick with your statement Asashosakari.

Talking about "ranks" distorts the facts somewhat.  A more accurate description would be the number of rikishi you jump over.  So you are really jumping over double the people when you skip a rank (unless you are moving only from 3e to 2w).

That's certainly true, but doesn't have any bearing on the fact that Asashoryu got approximately the same kind of banzuke jump with a combined 18-12 record that Hakuho got with 23-7, which is the only thing I was meaning to point out, since you seemed to say that Hakuho's lower initial rank had something to do with it. It didn't.

And I think by virture of the fact that if you score an excellent record, then you had to jump over more people. This tends to make banzuke luck more pronounced because alot depends on those how those 2x(rank) people scores in front of you (and also how those 2x(rank) people behind you does too).

It just adds twice the uncertainty into the equation. And luck does play more of a part in those situations.

I can't say I'm able to make sense out of that (sorry), unless you're implying that Asashoryu didn't have too much banzuke luck, just that Hakuho had too little? (Sigh...)

Anyway, it's not really a matter of uncertainty, or of Hakuho just being out of luck because everyone else scored a wee bit better. Take a look at Hakuho's promotion from M8e to M3e in particular. A few short years ago, he would have passed by Tamanoshima, Iwakiyama, Shimotori, and possibly even Kotomitsuki and Kokkai, so there was certainly a chance he could have become Komusubi there. Conservative promotion decisions are the main reason that didn't happen.

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I was just trying to say that it is much harder to jump a great deal based on exceptional 11+ win records simply because there are more rikishis you are jumping over and there are more uncertainty in the performance of those rikishi you jump over.

In a perfect world, there should be some proportionality between win-loss records and the number of places one should move up or down. But we all know it is not like that. Again, because more rikishis need to be skipped when one makes a big jump in banzuke, it is harder to satisfy all these "proportionality" rules for each skipped rikishi.

For example, if one was to jump over 10 rikishis, 10 "mini-proportionality" rules for each of those skipped rikishi needed to be satisfied. But if one was to jump over 16 rikishis, 16 of those "mini-proportionality" rules needed to be satisfied. Satisfying all 16 rules would obviously be harder because there are 16 variables rather than 10. Somewhere, someone has to be treated differently from this general rule.

In sum, unless you are lucky, it is statistically harder to jump proportionally based on an exceptional 11+ win record. The number of jumps/demotions one can expect to get on average gets compressed as one moves away from the median 7-8 wins of the bell curve.

And sorry for this off-topic discussion.

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I'll wait and hope that Hakuho makes it to ozeki. He has already this ozeki spirit in him.

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