Day 12 results and day 13 pairings

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

Asashoryu won against Tochiazuma who still needs two wins for Ozeki re-promotion. He needed Kasugao, Kyokushuzan and Hakuho to lose today to win the yusho officially, but just Kyokushuzan lost while Hakuho won against Kotooshu and Kasugao against Aminishiki. It would be the biggest yusho meltdown in the history of Sumo though if Kasugao or Hakuho wins it.

Chiyotaikai lost against the "easy" Kakizoe, and now has to ensure kachi-koshi with two wins out of three bouts against Roho, Wakanosato and Asashoryu to avoid a fall to Sekiwake. Wakanosato also lost to a Maegashira and kachi-koshi will be difficult to get for him as well.

Kyokutenho is the highest ranked Maegashira better than 6-6, but 8-4 at M6 doesn't look too good for Sanyaku aspirations. It's also possible that no new Sanyaku are needed with Kotomitsuki and Wakanosato as Komusubi, Hakuho, Miyabiyama and 0 to 2 from Chiyotaikai and Tochiazuma as Sekiwake. The worst case is the need of two new Komusubi (Kotomitsuki 6-9, Wakanosat 8-7).

In Juryo we have a clear yusho leader now with Otsukasa at 10-2 after a win against co-leader Katayama. Toki lost to join Kasuganishiki and Hakurozan at 8-4 two wins behind the lead. Tomorrow we have two interesting Juryo-Makushita exchange bouts with Ichinotani and Toyonokuni having to get the possible promotion clincher in Juryo.

--

Doitsuyama

Day 12

Juryo

J9e    Asofuji (7-5)       hikiotoshi     J12w   Sumanofuji (3-9)
J14w   Daimanazuru (6-6)   hatakikomi     J9w    Yotsukasa (5-7)
J8e    Wakanoyama (6-5-1)  yorikiri       J13w   Chiyotenzan (4-8)
J7e    Hakurozan (8-4)     uwatenage      J13e   Senshuyama (7-5)
J7w    Otsukasa (10-2)     oshitaoshi     J12e   Katayama (9-3)
J5e    Kobo (4-8)          kainahineri    J14e   Bushuyama (3-9)
J11w   Asanowaka (7-5)     hikiotoshi     J5w    Kinkaiyama (4-8)
J4e    Kasuganishiki (8-4) tsukiotoshi    J11e   Kaido (6-6)
J4w    Ishide (6-6)        tsukiotoshi    J10w   Maikaze (5-7)
J10e   Wakakirin (6-6)     amiuchi        J3e    Takanotsuru (3-9)
J3w    Wakatoba (7-5)      hikiotoshi     J8w    Daishodai (6-6)
J6w    Tamaasuka (4-8)     yorikiri       J1e    Gojoro (4-8)
J1w    Futeno (7-5)        yorikiri       J6e    Toki (8-4)

Makuuchi

M17e   Toyonoshima (6-6)   okuridashi     J2w    Kitazakura (5-7)
M17w   Tokitenku (4-8)     okuridashi     J2e    Toyozakura (7-5)
M14e   Kasugao (9-3)       kotenage       M16w   Aminishiki (5-7)
M13e   Ama (7-5)           oshidashi      M12e   Tokitsuumi (3-9)
M12w   Kisenosato (5-7)    yorikiri       M16e   Kotoshogiku (4-8)
M11w   Jumonji (8-4)       oshidashi      M14w   Tamakasuga (5-7)
M10e   Dejima (8-4)        yorikiri       M11e   Asasekiryu (7-5)
M13w   Buyuzan (7-5)       oshidashi      M9w    Shimotori (7-5)
M6e    Kyokutenho (8-4)    yorikiri       M7e    Hayateumi (6-6)
M6w    Kaiho (5-7)         shitatenage    M10w   Kyokushuzan (8-4)

M5e    Roho (5-7)          sokubiotoshi   M8e    Hokutoriki (6-6)
M5w    Takamisakari (5-7)  hikiotoshi     M9e    Takanowaka (5-7)
M3e    Tamanoshima (4-8)   yorikiri       M7w    Kotoryu (3-9)
M2e    Kotonowaka (4-8)    yorikiri       M3w    Kokkai (4-8)
K1e    Kotomitsuki (6-6)   yorikiri       M2w    Tosanoumi (5-7)
K1w    Hakuho (9-3)        yorikiri       M4e    Kotooshu (6-6)
S1w    Miyabiyama (8-4)    oshidashi      M1e    Iwakiyama (6-6)
M1w    Tochinonada (4-8)   oshidashi      S1e    Wakanosato (6-6)
M4w    Kakizoe (6-6)       hatakikomi     O1w    Chiyotaikai (6-6)
Y1e    Asashoryu (12-0)    oshidashi      S2w    Tochiazuma (8-4)

Day 13

Makushita

Ms18w  Masatsukasa (5-1)                  Ms14w  Koryu (5-1)
Ms16e  Hochiyama (3-3)                    Ms12w  Hamanishiki (3-3)
Ms46e  Fujitsukasa (0-6)                  Ms7w   Tamamitsukuni (0-6)
Ms6e   Shiraishi (3-3)                    Ms6w   Raiko (3-3)
Ms4e   Chiyohakuho (6-0)                  Ms51e  Kimurayama (6-0)

Juryo

Ms5w   Ichinotani (5-1)                   J14w   Daimanazuru (6-6)
Ms2w   Toyonokuni (3-3)                   J11w   Asanowaka (7-5)
J13w   Chiyotenzan (4-8)                  J10w   Maikaze (5-7)
J10e   Wakakirin (6-6)                    J13e   Senshuyama (7-5)
J11e   Kaido (6-6)                        J9w    Yotsukasa (5-7)
J8e    Wakanoyama (6-5-1)                 J9e    Asofuji (7-5)
J7e    Hakurozan (8-4)                    J12e   Katayama (9-3)
J14e   Bushuyama (3-9)                    J6w    Tamaasuka (4-8)
J6e    Toki (8-4)                         J8w    Daishodai (6-6)
J12w   Sumanofuji (3-9)                   J5w    Kinkaiyama (4-8)
J7w    Otsukasa (10-2)                    J4w    Ishide (6-6)
J4e    Kasuganishiki (8-4)                J5e    Kobo (4-8)
J3w    Wakatoba (7-5)                     J1w    Futeno (7-5)
J1e    Gojoro (4-8)                       J2w    Kitazakura (5-7)

Makuuchi

J3e    Takanotsuru (3-9)                  M17w   Tokitenku (4-8)
M17e   Toyonoshima (6-6)                  J2e    Toyozakura (7-5)
M14w   Tamakasuga (5-7)                   M13w   Buyuzan (7-5)
M11e   Asasekiryu (7-5)                   M13e   Ama (7-5)
M16e   Kotoshogiku (4-8)                  M10w   Kyokushuzan (8-4)
M10e   Dejima (8-4)                       M11w   Jumonji (8-4)
M8e    Hokutoriki (6-6)                   M14e   Kasugao (9-3)
M12e   Tokitsuumi (3-9)                   M7w    Kotoryu (3-9)
M7e    Hayateumi (6-6)                    M16w   Aminishiki (5-7)
M12w   Kisenosato (5-7)                   M6w    Kaiho (5-7)

M4e    Kotooshu (6-6)                     M9w    Shimotori (7-5)
M3e    Tamanoshima (4-8)                  M3w    Kokkai (4-8)
M2e    Kotonowaka (4-8)                   M9e    Takanowaka (5-7)
M2w    Tosanoumi (5-7)                    M1w    Tochinonada (4-8)
M1e    Iwakiyama (6-6)                    K1w    Hakuho (9-3)
K1e    Kotomitsuki (6-6)                  M5w    Takamisakari (5-7)
M4w    Kakizoe (6-6)                      S2w    Tochiazuma (8-4)
M6e    Kyokutenho (8-4)                   S1w    Miyabiyama (8-4)
M5e    Roho (5-7)                         O1w    Chiyotaikai (6-6)
Y1e    Asashoryu (12-0)                   S1e    Wakanosato (6-6)

Edited January 20, 2005 by Doitsuyama

[aderechelsea 124]

Kaiho did his duty as Asa's tachimochi and beat Shuzan with the 32nd shitatenage in his career, one of kaiho's favourite kimarite.

him being slim and short helps him get the shitate grip almost everytime,since his opponents get the uwate grip anyway.

last time Kaiho lost to shitatenage was in 2001 by no other than Asashoryu ....

this win helps Kaiho to even a bit the record against Kyokushuzan (9-10)

[Kashunowaka 300]

Kyokutenho is the highest ranked Maegashira better than 6-6, but 8-4 at M6 doesn't look too good for Sanyaku aspirations. It's also possible that no new Sanyaku are needed with Kotomitsuki and Wakanosato as Komusubi, Hakuho, Miyabiyama and 0 to 2 from Chiyotaikai and Tochiazuma as Sekiwake. The worst case is the need of two new Komusubi (Kotomitsuki 6-9, Wakanosat 8-7).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

With bad luck Hakuho could be shifted out of a sekiwake position *again*. Miyabiyama has secured his sekiwake slot, but then there are five rikishi "competing" for sekiwake: Chiyotaikai, Wakanosato, Tochiazuma, Kotomitsuki and Hakuho. I can easily see Hakuho stay at komusubi with 10-5, but after what happened with the last banzuke I wouldn't be surprised to even see him stay at komusubi with 11-4. The banzuke committee has been that unwilling lately to create extra slots to those who deserve them. They can't keep him down with 12-3, though.

Mickey is probably out of the sekiwake race already, since he is three wins behind Hakuho. So I predict a record-breaking sixth basho in a row at komusubi for him.

[sumofan 6]

With bad luck Hakuho could be shifted out of a sekiwake position *again*. Miyabiyama has secured his sekiwake slot, but then there are five rikishi "competing" for sekiwake: Chiyotaikai, Wakanosato, Tochiazuma, Kotomitsuki and Hakuho.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

personally, i think chio will either remain Ozeki or go Intai.

Wakanosato risks demotion, and i think zuma can still return to ozeki.

this would leave only Kotomitsuki and hakuho

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

Kotomitsuki has practically no chance to be Sekiwake next basho. The best he can get is 9-6 which ONLY is enough if there is only one Sekiwake, and we already have Miyabiyama guaranteed. So he will be Sekiwake only if:

- Tochiazuma gets 10

- Chiyotaikai gets 8 (or Intai, which I doubt very much)

- Wakanosato is MK

- Hakuho loses all three

- Kotomitsuki wins all three

Then Kotomitsuki gets preference ahead of Hakuho just because he is on the East Komusubi side. No chance.

[Kashunowaka 300]

Kotomitsuki has practically no chance to be Sekiwake next basho.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree.

The most likely after all seems to be that both Chiyotaikai and Tochiazuma are ozeki next basho. Chiyotaikai should go 2-1 in his last three bouts. Tochiazuma has an easier schedule, and even 11-4 is possible for him. I don't give Wakanosato much chance for kachikoshi, but he should beat his maegashira opponent (Tenho perhaps?) for 7-8.

Kotomitsuki should get kachikoshi quite easily against three maegashira opponents. Iwakiyama will lose to Hakuho, but then 8-7 is within his reach. In all we get:

Y Asashoryu 15-0 -> Y

O Chiyotaikai 8-7 -> O

S Wakanosato 7-8 -> K

S Miyabiyama 9-6 -> S

S Tochiazuma 11-4 -> O

K Kotomitsuki 9-6 -> K

K Hakuho 12-3 -> S

M1 Iwakiyama 8-7 -> K

(You are going off-topic...)

[Jejima 1,303]

Y  Asashoryu    15-0  -> Y

O  Chiyotaikai  8-7  -> O

S  Wakanosato    7-8  -> K

S  Miyabiyama    9-6  -> S

S  Tochiazuma  11-4 -> O

K  Kotomitsuki  9-6  -> K

K  Hakuho      12-3  -> S

M1 Iwakiyama    8-7  -> K

I'd have to disagree with you there. If all results are as you predict, then there is no need to have 3 komusubis. I think in such a case Wakanosato would be demoted to M1, even with a 7-8 record.....

[Elenrian 0]

O Chiyotaikai 8-7 -> O

S Wakanosato 7-8 -> K

You meant the contrary, uh?

I would say Chiyotaikai 7/8 ( loses vs Asashoryu and Wakanosato)

And Wakanosato (loses ? to Asashoryu, wins vs Chiyotaikai and his last opponent)

[Asashosakari 18,698]

I'd have to disagree with you there.

Edited January 20, 2005 by Asashosakari

[Jejima 1,303]

[Nah. The way they've been extremely lenient on make-koshi sanyaku lately (e.g. Tochinonada Kw -> M1w with 6-9 last basho when they simply could have moved Kotonowaka and Tosanoumi a bit higher), I'd be shocked to see a Sekiwake demoted out of sanyaku with a 7-8.

That's a different matter entirely. Somebody has to be ranked at M1w, and if Tochinonada is the best fit (in *their* opinion), then so be it.

You only have to have two Komusubi in sumo.

There have been instances in the past when Sekiwakes have been kicked out of sanyaku with a 7-8 record. I *think* (from memory when a similar topic was raised on the Sumo ML) there has even been a case (a reasonably long time ago) when a Sekiwake with a 7-8 record has been demoted all the way down to M3.

I would still think that the banzuke makers would kick him out of Sanyaku all together if the scenario is as described.... ....but the Banzuke makers do work in mysterious ways...

edit: (in *their* opinion) added. Some !s deleted

Edited January 20, 2005 by Jejima

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

I guess what Asashosakari meant was that not Wakanosato, but Iwakiyama is the odd guy missing out. Staying at M1 with 8-7 isn't new and fits very well with recent practice.

Edit: Here is a list of M1 with 8-7 not getting to Sanyaku, much longer than Sekiwake dropping to Maegashira with 7-8...

Edited January 20, 2005 by Doitsuyama

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

There have been instances in the past when Sekiwakes have been kicked out of sanyaku with a 7-8 record.  I *think* (from memory when a similar topic was raised on the Sumo ML) there has even been a case (a reasonably long time ago) when a Sekiwake with a 7-8 record has been demoted all the way down to M3.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hey, you should have learned of hakkeyoi by now. Looking this one up there is MUCH faster than even typing this sentence... As you can see, no M3. I guess you meant M2 anyway. There are several examples, yes, but look when the last one was. The banzuke practices changes a lot faster than the 12 years since the last example, and currently the practice is strict, without question. 7-8 and Wakanosato stays a Sanyaku, I don't doubt that.

[Kashunowaka 300]

I guess what Asashosakari meant was that not Wakanosato, but Iwakiyama is the odd guy missing out. Staying at M1 with 8-7 isn't new and fits very well with recent practice.

Edit: Here is a list of M1 with 8-7 not getting to Sanyaku, much longer than Sekiwake dropping to Maegashira with 7-8...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What speaks for Iwakiyama is that he is M1e.

[Asashosakari 18,698]

I guess what Asashosakari meant was that not Wakanosato, but Iwakiyama is the odd guy missing out. Staying at M1 with 8-7 isn't new and fits very well with recent practice.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's possible, but my expectation would be three Komusubi, as outlined by Kashunowaka. Still, there's really not much data to go by...the last M1e who went 8-7 and didn't move into a regular Komusubi or Sekiwake slot was almost 10 years ago, and as you're saying, a lot of water has gone down the banzuke stream since then. But after what they did with Hakuho last basho, it's certainly possible for Iwakiyama to stay M1e even if he goes 8-7.

Edit: Needless to say, for the sake of my next GTB submission I hope for a less murky situation than this. (You are going off-topic...)

Edited January 20, 2005 by Asashosakari

[Celeborn 0]

What speaks for Iwakiyama is that he is M1e.

Exactly. Last M1E with 8-7 not being promoted was in 1969. Since then, many sekiwake have left sanyaku with 7-8.

*Celeborn

[Kashunowaka 300]

What speaks for Iwakiyama is that he is M1e.

Exactly. Last M1E with 8-7 not being promoted was in 1969. Since then, many sekiwake have left sanyaku with 7-8.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What speaks for Wakanosato is that he is sekiwake east ... (You are going off-topic...)

[Asashosakari 18,698]

Exactly. Last M1E with 8-7 not being promoted was in 1969. Since then, many sekiwake have left sanyaku with 7-8.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The last M1 to go only to Komusubi with 12 or more wins (before Hakuho this basho) was in 1959. I'd be careful to draw conclusions from something that happened as recently as 1969. (You are going off-topic...)

[Celeborn 0]

Kashunowaka & Asashosakari (by the way, why do sumo fans use such unwritable nicknames ? (You are going off-topic...) ), thanks for such deliciously humoristic messages : my day is enlightened !

*Celeborn

Edited January 20, 2005 by Celeborn

[Jejima 1,303]

Okay, I concede that demoting a Sekiwake out of Sanyaku with a 7-8 record hasn't happened for a while, and neither has not promoting a M1E with an 8-7 record....

...but if the above scenario occurs, I still say that there will be only two komusubis.

Sumo prefers to have just two rikishi each ranked at komusubi and sekiwake, unless it can't be avoided.

In this case, (IMO), it can. Either Wakanosato or Iwakiyama would lose out on the komusubi slot, on the whim of the banzuke makers, even if it means dusting off some old banzukes for reference.

I'm now hoping that this scenario does happen, to see what would happen with GTB. Either I (probably), or the pro-3-komusubi people would be proved wrong. Either way, there could be very interesting results!

[Zeokage 0]

M1e with 8 wins staying at M1e

S1e with 7 wins going out of Sanyaku

Last occurrence of Case 1 = 1969

Last occurrence of Case 2 = 1992 (there are only 2 cases of this, the other being in 1970)

Banzuke from the 1992 case... Before and After.

I think there were things then that we should look at here...

• Takahanada won the yusho from M2e and was promoted to S
  
• Akebono got the jun-yusho from K1w with 12-3, which is what Hakuho could end up with
  
• They DID go to 3 Komusubi with Mitoizumi getting 8-7 from M1e
  

I'm sure there are things I haven't mentioned as well...

[QttP 0]

O Chiyotaikai 8-7 -> O

S Wakanosato 7-8 -> K

You meant the contrary, uh?

I would say Chiyotaikai 7/8 ( loses vs Asashoryu and Wakanosato)

And Wakanosato (loses ? to Asashoryu, wins vs Chiyotaikai and his last opponent)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Somehow Chiyotaikai is always favorite against Wakanosato. Tomorrow won't be an exception, although he might end up losing. Which will once again strengthen my opinion that he should leave and never come back.

[Chiyozakura 128]

Somehow Chiyotaikai is always favorite against Wakanosato. Tomorrow won't be an exception, although he might end up losing. Which will once again strengthen my opinion that he should leave and never come back.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Qttp: You say you are not too hard on Chiyotaikai. He just won a very important match to stay at Ozeki and you say "Tomorrow he could lose so he should retire"??? (Showing respect...)

He could lose to anybody, which has always been the case and always will be. He needs his 8, no matter how. He has lost to Sato a couple of times in the past and luckily did not retire afterwards....

Should he defeat Sato tomorrow how about a private bet that Chiyotaikai in better condition will win 10 in March?

[Kashunowaka 300]

M1e with 8 wins staying at M1e

S1e with 7 wins going out of Sanyaku

Last occurrence of Case 1 = 1969

Last occurrence of Case 2 = 1992 (there are only 2 cases of this, the other being in 1970)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Don't rely too much on precedence cases from past times ... As late as a couple of years ago, the banzuke people happily created extra slots for results similar to those of Kotomitsuki and Hakuho last basho. Now they don't.

I find it amusing that the posts circle around "M1 with 8-7 gets this and that" but no one challenged my prediction that Hakuho would easily win over Iwakiyama. (Showing respect...) And Kotomitsuki started out by losing too. So the discussion is out-of-date already ... New balls, gentlemen!

[QttP 0]

Qttp: You say you are not too hard on Chiyotaikai. He just won a very important match to stay at Ozeki and you say "Tomorrow he could lose so he should retire"???  (Shaking head...)

He could lose to anybody, which has always been the case and always will be. He needs his 8, no matter how. He has lost to Sato a couple of times in the past and luckily did not retire afterwards....

Have I not explained my opinion on this matter enough? Maybe I haven't so let this be now.

Chiyotaikai has been a very solid ozeki until the middle of 2004, won 3 yusho and has been a candidate for yokozunahood several times. Then all of a sudden his sumo got down drastically. Yes, he was always known for the occasional slip, which is part of the reason he never got up there, but he never had any problem delivering the numbers. He would always wipe the floor with hiramaku opponents, and only the best of the best, i.e. other ozeki and yokozunas could consistently defeat him. Which basically what you expect from an ozeki.

But ever since Natsu basho last year it has not been the same Chiyotaikai. He started packing up early losses, he fell out of the yusho hunt and started struggling for kachikoshi, he lost his powerful forward drive (that unique sumo style is what made him attractive to me in the first place). Granted, it was in part due to the nasty injury, but it also seemed that some of his will to carry on disappeared. He was constantly reported undertraining, in his post-match interviews he used to spit stuff like "Meh, I win, I lose, it happens, what's the difference". It seemed that he lost that fire that made him Chiyotaikai.

But all this time I was willing to believe that it's mostly that injury. It was clear to everyone that he was in real physical pain in Aki and Kyushu. Eventually he went kadoban, but I was still not that worried, because I heard reports that his injury is healing. In pre-basho keiko (the little that he did) it didn't seem to bother him.

When he was 4-1 after five days, following a slip loss on shonichi and four good, strong, forward sumo, classic Chiyotaikai wins, he seemed on the right track to a good basho. Never in my worst dreams I believed that we would come to the last stretch and his kachi-koshi will still not be secured.

When he lost to Azuma on day 6, it seeemed more like another unlucky slip. When he lost to Iwakiyama I began to have doubts. But then came Hakuho and Kotooshu. There's nothing in the current Hakuho that Chiyotaikai in good shape shouldn't throw out the window, and yet he couldn't. Chiyotaikai doesn't lose to random maegashira! Even if one of them is the next Akebono. And yet he lost to Kotooshu. That's too many losses, and this time it doesn't seem that the elbow injury is the reason.

Allright, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it is the elbow. But like I said, if this injury is so serious, I doubt it will ever heal. Musashimaru, with all his 230 kilos was beaten by his wrist. Chiyotaikai will be doomed with an elbow injury that will cripple his style completely.

But, whatever the reasons for his current performance are, it's a fact that it's mediocre at best. And this period has went on for too long for me to believe that he will just snap out of it. Now, I'm the biggest Chiyotaikai fan in the world. I like him much more than he deserves. But I prefer not seeing him on the dohyo at all than seeing a pathetic shadow of him. That's a selfish point of view.

However, as long as he stays as an ozeki, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and to hope that he will still return to give us a couple of good years. Once he drops, I don't see how he'll come back, and I just don't want to see him go down to wrestle with Buyuzan and retire like Takanonami. That, I repeat, is a purely selfish point of view.

Should he defeat Sato tomorrow how about a private bet that Chiyotaikai in better condition will win 10 in March?

I don't see how the bout with Sato tomorrow is directly related to his performance in March, assuming he doesn't indeed retire. But I'm not putting any bets on Chiyotaikai anymore.

Am I too pessimistic? Maybe. Let him defeat Sato tomorrow and Shoryu on senshuraku, and then I may have some increased faith in him again.

[Jakusotsu 5,772]

Very, very well put, QttP. Thanks! (Shaking head...)