fastest-rising foreign rikishi of 2004

[Asashosakari 16,980]

I recently came to wonder if there is any way to spot rising talents "automatically", aside from the obvious ones, i.e. those who are in the spotlight by competing for and/or winning the lower division yushos. I've settled on a fairly simple metric, and to bolster my statto credentials :-) I've calculated it for all 47 foreign toriteki. While this was mostly an exercise to satisfy my own curiosity, I do greatly appreciate feedback as to the usefulness of this (or utter lack thereof) to anyone else.

The first five table headers should be self-explanatory. HR2004.01 is the rikishi's highest rank achieved up to Hatsu 2004, i.e. not necessarily the rank he had in Hatsu 2004, while R2005.01 is his actual rank for the upcoming basho.

My rationale for not simply comparing the current rank with that of a year ago is probably best explained through an example: Ryuo was Ms15w in Kyushu 2003, very near his highest career rank of Ms13e. He was kyujo in that tournament, dropping him to Ms55w for Hatsu 2004. So, while a straight comparison would show a huge improvement for him (from Ms55w to Ms10w), all he really did in 2004 was recapturing lost ground, not actually getting much closer to Juryo (which is what I'm chiefly concerned with, the remaining distance to sekitoridom).

"Rise" is simply the relative improvement towards Juryo, e.g. somebody who was Ms40w and is now Ms30w has cut his distance to Juryo (more specifically to J14w, for ease of calculation) from 80 ranks down to 60, improving his position by 25% or 0.250.

Disclaimers:

1a) Negative rise quotients aren't quite as useful as positive ones, and all that should probably be inferred from them is that those particular rikishi did not improve upon their sekitori chances in the last year. Since I'm mostly interested in seeing who could be a future sekitori, I'm not too troubled by that.

1b) Related to the previous problem, these calculations will break down for rikishi who have been at a high Makushita rank in the past. As an extreme example, somebody who was once Ms1e and is now Ms4e would have a quotient of -6, even though he's just one kachi-koshi away from Juryo promotion. A bit bothersome, but not really a huge problem IMHO, since I'm trying to identify fast risers...somebody who's in spitting range to Juryo should have caught everyone's eye already and doesn't need additional highlighting.

2) To channel an SEC filing, past results are no guarantee of future performance...being at the top of these standings doesn't mean those guys are a shoo-in for future Juryo promotion, although their chances are probably pretty good. Ideally, this type of metric should probably be checked every couple of basho, to see who continues to rise, and whose progress has levelled off (dropping their rise quotient towards zero).

Edited January 6, 2005 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 16,980]

Anyway, after way too much blathering in the previous post, here's the data. :-)

#	Shikona	Country	Heya	Debut	HR04.01	R05.01	Rise	abs
1	Maenoyu	Mongolia	Takadagawa	2004.01	---	Ms36e	0.894	597
2	Baruto	Estonia	Mihogaseki	2004.05	---	Sd6e	0.802	531
3	Musashiryu	Mongolia	Musashigawa	2001.03	Ms45e	Ms12e	0.742	66
4	Sensho	Mongolia	Shikihide	2001.03	Sd36w	Ms27e	0.724	139
5	Hoshihikari	Mongolia	Hakkaku	2000.11	Ms60e	Ms17e	0.723	86
6	Kakuryu	Mongolia	Izutsu	2001.11	Sd25e	Ms27w	0.680	115
7	Takaazuma	Brazil	Tamanoi	2004.05	---	Sd46w	0.680	450
8	Kazafuzan	Kazakhstan	Nishikido	2003.11	Jk33w	Sd42e	0.667	407
9	Sokokurai	China	Arashio	2003.09	Jd25w	Sd7e	0.641	237
10	Tokusegawa	Mongolia	Kiriyama	2003.07	Sd96w	Ms59w	0.622	194
11	Tamawashi	Mongolia	Kataonami	2004.01	---	Sd74w	0.599	400
12	Ryutei	China	Nishonoseki	2004.05	---	Sd86w	0.561	373
13	Mokonami	Mongolia	Tatsunami	2001.03	Sd33w	Ms43e	0.543	101
14	Daionami	Mongolia	Tatsunami	2001.01	Sd29w	Ms45w	0.494	88
15	Daionji	Mongolia	Asahiyama	2000.07	Sd17w	Ms43w	0.442	68
16	Arawashi	Mongolia	Araiso	2002.11	Sd47w	Sd5w	0.393	84
17	Daitensho	Mongolia	Takashima	2001.03	Sd32e	Ms60e	0.350	64
18	Amuru	Russia	Onomatsu	2002.05	Sd68e	Sd24e	0.345	88
19	Shironishiki	Mongolia	Sakaigawa	2003.01	Sd22e	Ms54e	0.344	56
20	Shosho	China	Isegahama	2004.03	---	Jd64w	0.338	229
21	Hoshikaze	Mongolia	Oguruma	2002.11	Ms58e	Ms40e	0.313	36
22	Daishochi	Mongolia	Shibatayama	2001.07	Ms26w	Ms19e	0.288	15
23	Kinryuzan	South Korea	Matsugane	2003.05	Jd15e	Sd69e	0.264	92
24	Haku	China	Kokonoe	2004.01	---	Jd77w	0.257	164
25	Yamada	South Korea	Takanohana	2004.03	---	Jd82e	0.256	166
26	Kainohama	Brazil	Tomozuna	2004.01	---	Jd93w	0.243	162
27	Kosei	China	Azumazeki	2003.11	Jk36e	Jd74w	0.239	147
28	Minaminoshima	Tonga	Musashigawa	2001.03	Sd52w	Sd27e	0.228	51
29	Kagamio	Mongolia	Kagamiyama	2003.07	Jd114w	Jd55e	0.217	119
30	Ryuo	Mongolia	Miyagino	2000.03	Ms13e	Ms10w	0.200	5
31	Kitakasuga	Mongolia	Kasugayama	1999.09	Sd44e	Sd29e	0.145	30
32	Nakanokuni	China	Minato	2002.07	Sd12e	Sd5e	0.098	14
33	Koryu	Mongolia	Hanakago	2000.11	Ms16e	Ms14w	0.097	3
34	Orora	Russia	Kitanoumi	2000.03	Sd56w	Sd47w	0.078	18
35	Ako	Mongolia	Ajigawa	2001.01	Sd57e	Sd51w	0.047	11
36	Hisanoumi	Tonga	Tagonoura	2001.03	Sd61w	Sd56w	0.041	10
37	Wakatora	Mongolia	Hanaregoma	2003.05	Jd67e	Jd59e	0.035	16
38	Azumao	Brazil	Tamanoi	1994.07	Sd11w	Sd9e	0.035	5
39	Dewahikari	Mongolia	Dewanoumi	2002.09	Jd52e	Jd66w	-0.069	-29
40	Hakuba	Mongolia	Michinoku	2000.01	Ms26w	Ms30e	-0.135	-7
41	Takanoyama	Czechia	Naruto	2001.11	Sd16e	Sd28w	-0.166	-25
42	Hoshizakura	Mongolia	Hakkaku	2000.11	Ms59e	Sd16e	-0.291	-34
43	Taika	Mongolia	Shikihide	2001.03	Sd20e	Sd46e	-0.327	-52
44	Daitenzan	Mongolia	Magaki	2001.01	Sd39e	Sd77w	-0.391	-77
45	Daiyuchi	Mongolia	Shibatayama	2001.03	Ms39e	Sd15e	-0.935	-72
46	Fudoyama	Mongolia	Takashima	2000.01	Sd13w	Sd89w	-1.041	-152
47	Kyokutenzan	Mongolia	Oshima	1992.03	Ms16e	Ms44w	-1.839	-57

Edited January 6, 2005 by Asashosakari

[Doitsuyama 1,156]

It is a good idea to take the highest rank until Hatsu 2004, not the actual rank, to avoid fluctuations. So why don't you do the same for Hatsu 2005, taking the highest rank between Haru 2004 and Hatsu 2005 instead of the actual Hatsu 2005 rank? This should avoid fluctuations the same way, and also make the two data more comparable.

Take Takanoyama for example, you have him at negative progress, but he actually had two basho in Makushita in the last year which qualifies as positive progress for me, even if his actual rank is lower than his highest rank until Hatsu 2004.

Another point, your metric is linear from Jonokuchi to Makushita 1, which sounds unrealistic to me, as the progress is well known to be much steeper and banzuke promotions more difficult as the rank rises. How about a logarithmic scale, as a progress from Sandanme to Makushita sounds a lot better to me than a progress from Jonokuchi to Sandanme? The difficult thing with a logarithmic scale here is setting a reasonable point of zero. If you set J14w as zero, the progress from Ms10 to Ms1 is too high, if you set Yokozuna as zero (and Ms1e as 71) the progress is not too much different from a linear progress... I tried Ms1e as 29 (so last Makuuchi rank is the point of zero), Ms1w as 30 and so on. With a logarithmus scale the half way from mae-zumo to Ms1e then is Ms57w which sounds ok to me.

Ok, enough ideas from me here. :-)

[Asashosakari 16,980]

It is a good idea to take the highest rank until Hatsu 2004, not the actual rank, to avoid fluctuations. So why don't you do the same for Hatsu 2005, taking the highest rank between Haru 2004 and Hatsu 2005 instead of the actual Hatsu 2005 rank? This should avoid fluctuations the same way, and also make the two data more comparable.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I considered doing it that way, but there just seemed to be too much potential for distortion. Hypothetical example: a Sd30 rikishi wins the Sandanme yusho and gets promoted to Ms20, where he promptly hits the wall and goes 1-6. He spends the rest of the year losing more than winning and finishes at Sd10. How much actual progress towards sekitori-dom did he make? I'd argue that it was 40 (half-)ranks, not 140.

As a real-life example, I'd point to Azumao...his old highest rank dated from 1999 (!) and while he improved on that by quite a bit through a 7-0 from Sd61, he finished the year almost exactly where his long-run results would have predicted it. Sure, he can now say that he's a former Makushita 36 rather than a former Sandanme 11, but he didn't actually make any progress towards becoming a sekitori.

Take Takanoyama for example, you have him at negative progress, but he actually had two basho in Makushita in the last year which qualifies as positive progress for me, even if his actual rank is lower than his highest rank until Hatsu 2004.

Yes, unfortunately. That's the kind of aberration (if it is one) that would disappear if the same stats were taken every basho or every second basho, and one could do something like a trend line of each rikishi's rankings.

Another point, your metric is linear from Jonokuchi to Makushita 1, which sounds unrealistic to me, as the progress is well known to be much steeper and banzuke promotions more difficult as the rank rises. How about a logarithmic scale, as a progress from Sandanme to Makushita sounds a lot better to me than a progress from Jonokuchi to Sandanme?

Too difficult for something I wasn't sure I'll even be persuing further. ;-) More seriously though, linear seemed to be a reasonable compromise for the first attempt. Let's take the following chain of ranks: Jd80 - Sd60 - Ms60 - Ms30 - Ms15. Each step would be an improvement of .500...the competition is obviously easier in Jonidan, but to improve by 50% also requires a much bigger jump and therefore better results at the bottom (notwithstanding that e.g. a 5-2 in Jonidan earns a somewhat bigger promotion than a 5-2 in Makushita).

That being said, I realize that my reasoning is a bit conflicted here; on the one hand I'm trying to figure out who's on the fast-track to Juryo, and on the other hand I don't want to ignore the guys in the lowest three divisions by putting too much emphasis on progress in Makushita. Your idea of using a logarithmic scale with the bottom of Makuuchi as the zero point sounds like an interesting compromise though...I'll do some experimenting to see if it "breaks" anything else.

Thank you very much for your feedback! :-)

Edited January 6, 2005 by Asashosakari

[sekihiryu 51]

#1 Maenoyu (Sign of approval) thats my boy, I have been following his progress and am really looking foward to watching him live in action in the Osaka Basho.From what I have seen of him though he has been relying on his youth and size with good athleticism to win rather than using skill, he will stagnate fast in the top of Makushita without building a fine reportoire of techniques to back up his physique.

But still Maenoyu No.1 :-)

[Exil 300]

While this was mostly an exercise to satisfy my own curiosity, I do greatly appreciate feedback as to the usefulness of this (or utter lack thereof) to anyone else.

Very interesting. :-) Makes you wonder what the table would look with some of the more promising domestic rikishi in there...

[Jonosuke 28]

While this was mostly an exercise to satisfy my own curiosity, I do greatly appreciate feedback as to the usefulness of this (or utter lack thereof) to anyone else.

I really love the table as it really makes things clear and nice to look and I hope you can contiinue. I really appreciate it.

One thing though ever since I paid off my mortgage, I have become mathematically dead so for me, it would be nice if you could add how many ranks they jumped or fell.

[Asashosakari 16,980]

Very interesting. (Punk rocker...) Makes you wonder what the table would look with some of the more promising domestic rikishi in there...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It does, doesn't it. ;-) I'll have to find a way to automate the whole thing to a greater degree though, as of now it's still a semi-manual process and that won't work for more than the about 50 rikishi currently included.

One thing though ever since I paid off my mortgage, I have become mathematically dead so for me, it would be nice if you could add how many ranks they jumped or fell.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Your wish is my command. :-) I've added the absolute number of ranks risen or fallen as the last column. I kind of expect this to be more confusing than helpful though...

Edited January 6, 2005 by Asashosakari

[MongolPower 0]

#5 Hoshihikari! I expect him to become a great sekitori soon since he comes from a family with great wrestlers. His father is sekiwake in Mongolian wrestling and silver medalist in 1983 free style world champion. His uncle is two time world chamption in 1974, 1975 and bronze 1977. Olympic Silver medalist in 1976 olympics.

[Coo-cook 0]

#5 Hoshihikari! I expect him to become a great sekitori soon since he comes from a family with great wrestlers. His father is sekiwake in Mongolian wrestling and silver medalist in 1983 free style world champion. His uncle is two time world chamption in 1974, 1975 and bronze 1977. Olympic Silver medalist in 1976 olympics.

I don't know. His father and uncle were all very skinny (just bone and sinew)

guys. And, you really need some extra weight in sumo.

If Hoshihikari inherited their features.....

Well, we'll see.

[Asashosakari 16,980]

I don't know. His father and uncle were all very skinny  (just bone and sinew)

guys. And, you really need some extra weight in sumo.

If Hoshihikari inherited their features.....

Well, we'll see.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, Hoshihikari is pretty skinny (looks like he has strong legs though), but that didn't stop him from showing a very good performance against good upper Makushita competition last basho. I'm not so sure he could survive in Juryo in the long run without some more weight, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him become a sekitori very soon. Five of his bouts from last basho are on banzuke.com, btw.

[MongolPower 0]

#5 Hoshihikari! I expect him to become a great sekitori soon since he comes from a family with great wrestlers. His father is sekiwake in Mongolian wrestling and silver medalist in 1983 free style world champion. His uncle is two time world chamption in 1974, 1975 and bronze 1977. Olympic Silver medalist in 1976 olympics.

I don't know. His father and uncle were all very skinny (just bone and sinew)

guys. And, you really need some extra weight in sumo.

If Hoshihikari inherited their features.....

Well, we'll see.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

His father is not that skinny. His father wrestled in 83kg category of free style. Freestyle wrestlers lose and keep their weight down a lot from young age. Unless Hoshihikari kept weight from young age like Kyoktenzan there should be no problem becoming sekitori.