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Yubiquitoyama

What will Kotomitsuki need to go Ozeki?

  

13 members have voted

  1. 1. What will Kotomitsuki need to go Ozeki?

    • A good yusho, 14-1 or 15-0.
      1
    • A 13-2 yusho.
      3
    • A 12-3 yusho.
      0
    • 13-2 or better, even without a yusho.
      1
    • 12-3 is needed, but no yusho.
      4
    • 11-4 period. That's 33 wins.
      1
    • 10-5 His yusho 2 basho ago should make that enough.
      0
    • He won't be promoted whatever result he gets. That 9-6 combined with the 4 Ozeki we already have makes that impossible.
      1


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Well, maybe this poll is ridiculous, since I doubt it will get many votes. But I'll try anyway...

It's day 5 of the Hatsu basho when I write this, and Kotomitsuki has begun reasonably well with 5-0, although not many top opponents. Now the question is, what do you think will be required for him to be promoted Ozeki after this basho? He won a yusho in September, 13-2, and followed this up with 9-6 last basho at Sekiwake, which means that 11-4 now would meet the 33 win standard for Ozeki promotion. Now, here are the pros and cons I can see. The things that would make his promotion more probable, as well as those making it less probable:

In favour:

*Kotomitsuki has shown good strong sumo and at times definite Ozeki or even Yokozuna quality. He also likes yotsu sumo, which is quite unusual among current Yokozuna/Ozeki.

*He won the yusho and did it in the run of the last three basho, showing he is capable of it (as opposed to for example Miyabiyama).

*He has shown that he can beat all Ozeki and Musashimaru, in some cases multiple times.

*Popularity of sumo is down right now. Kotomitsuki could possibly be a new force to create attention to sumo, now that the old generation is starting to disappear. If he's the one to dominate sumo, an early promotion is not bad.

*Something that always make a stir are great rivalries. Kotomitsuki could possibly be a part of such a rivalry, against Tochiazuma, Chiyotaikai or Asashoryu. To get all possible counter-parts promoted early will hardly weaken the interest in sumo.

*Although Sadogatake is a historically strong stable, it currently has few rikishi in the top division (Kotonowaka and Kotoryu). Therefore there is no "Sadogatake"-factor, such as it has been for Musashigawa and Futagoyama rikishi in the past. Therefore, Kotomitsuki's record isn't inflated, and he will have to meet all quality opponents.

*Sadogatake is soon retiring and will want to see his pupil go far and do it quickly. He also has some power within the Kyokai as a former Yokozuna, current riji, as well as riji candidate in the upcoming elections. It's possible he could take measures in convincing the relevant parties in favour of Kotomitsuki's promotion (recall how Musashigawa spoke for Musashimaru on his yokozuna promotion in an unprecedented morning meeting during the basho after which Maru got promotion).

Against:

*There are already 4 Ozeki, and they are also all four Ozeki that might stay for awhile. It's always more difficult to be promoted when it's crowded up there.

*There are no yokozuna against whom he can measure his powers in this basho.

*There have been a lot of discussion about prematurely promoted Ozeki, after Miyabiyama failed miserably, and Dejima was demoted. The Kyokai will think twice, not to get another one of those poor Ozeki, especially since Kotomitsuki is relatively new in the top division.

*Kotomitsuki has never beaten Takanohana in four tries.

*Kotomitsuki would be yet another college kid promoted to Ozeki. It's obvious with the new rules for amateur rikishi entering Makushita that the Kyokai feels college kids are taking over sumo too easily.

*Kotomitsuki has shown some inconsistencies, with good records following bad ones and vice versa. Some might want to see him stabilize before getting a promotion.

*Kotomitsuki had a 9-6 record in the 3-basho run. This is very bad, since 10-5 minimum, or often even 11-4 are required, unless the three-basho record is VERY good.

*The yusho was in the first basho of three. It's always much better to get in the last. Furthermore, it's always easier to get promotion with a record such as 10-5, 11-4, 12-3, (continually increasing number of wins) than the other way around.

Well, these are the facts. What will they mean? Can he get the promotion, and in that case, what will be needed. Observe that even if you think Kotomitsuki will go 15-0 and be promoted, the question is what the WORST record still earning him promotion would be.

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I think he will need a jun-yusho, or 13-2, loosing only to Taikai and Azuma... 12-3 with a jun-yusho would be fine.

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*Kotomitsuki had a 9-6 record in the 3-basho run. This is very bad, since 10-5 minimum, or often even 11-4 are required, unless the three-basho record is VERY good.

*The yusho was in the first basho of three. It's always much better to get in the last. Furthermore, it's always easier to get promotion with a record such as 10-5, 11-4, 12-3, (continually increasing number of wins) than the other way around.

I don't think that this really is important.There has been a lot of talk about it on the ML, but I still have to see a case where promotion is denied.I think this won't be a case to be taken into consideration because Kotomitsuki has been so good that it would surprise me if he got less then 12 wins this basho.

There have been 5 Ozeki before and there were even times when all were at least good Ozeki (for most part of their career), as in the mid 80's with Wakashimazu, Asashio, Hokutenyu, Onokuni and Kitao. At one time there was even the chance to have 6 Ozeki when Hokutoumi was promoted. The NSK avoided this situation by promoting Kitao to Yokozuna, although he had not won a single Yusho. Good Sekiwake records like Hokutoumi's garantee promotion, even if it is crowded.I think Kotomitsuki will be no different.

PS. I hope this time I made no mistakes with the quote option...

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Another question is : does Kotomitsuki firstly aim at the Yusho win (the second on three last basho) or an Ozeki promotion ? or is he so ambitious to really aim at both of them ?  :-Q

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Another question is : does Kotomitsuki firstly aim at the Yusho win (the second on three last basho) or an Ozeki promotion ? or is he so ambitious to really aim at both of them ?

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Well, 12-3 without jun-yusho wasn't enough... pity poor Mickey, but I can understand Kyokai's reasons. Here's hoping for another good result in Haru to show he has got what it takes to become an Ozeki. (Thumbs up...)

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I'm happy they didn't promote him as I don't think he's ready yet. He needs to get rid of those 9-6 bashos sooner or later if he's to become a viable ozeki.

He has time and I'm probably harsher to him than to others as he's "one of our boys". (Thumbs up...)

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