Who is going to become Sumo Gaming World Champion?

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

Day 13:

Though the overall performance of the very top players this year is not as dominant as in recent years, Day 13 showed that the cream of the crop consists of really strong players as almost everybody managed to improve their tally today. Among the top contenders, the sole exception was Flohru who drops to third. Curiously, he has two more games in the points than yesterday, and still he received a small net loss for today, mostly because he dropped a bit in my Oracle standings (from 13.5 to 10 points). Kaito manages to defend his razor-thin lead (160.24), now over Pandaazuma (159.37). Andoreasu also improved a bit today, overtaking Unkonoyama in the process. Others in Top 10 are DeRosa, Oskahanada, Bunbukuchagama, Kachikoshi,  and Kotononami.

 

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

As for the prospects, it pretty much depends on how Pandaazuma will perform in daily games with a defined W/L records. He is at 10-3 in ISP (tied for 5th, one win behind the leader), 9-4 in Toto (tied for 2nd, one behind the leader and high in potential tie-breaker scores), and 8-5 in TTT (tied for 4th, one win behind the leader). So, six daily performances left. I think that if he goes 4-2 or better in these three games, he is most likely to win the Championship. But we'll see. 

[Kajiyanosho 75]

And here's the updated anymation!

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/26319075/

 

[Oskanohana 381]

22 hours ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

Please do not forget. Just one successful bet in Odd Sumo can bring 15 points on a single day. Well, not so much for Kaito who is already in 2nd place currently. But for the other four combatants this game offers huge potential for additional points.

Ganzohnesushi

Shhhh, don't give them any ideas, that's my plan for a surprise run at the title.

Choose Ante	Total Quota	Ante Remaining	Ante Spent
	0.0	0.00	30
		you don't have enough points to place your bet (minimum is 1.00)	(you are already classified)

Y'all got any more of that ante?

[Sumo Spiffy 672]

1 hour ago, Oskanohana said:

you don't have enough points to place your bet (minimum is 1.00)

(you are already classified)

Y'all got any more of that ante?

This is why I quit playing it. 

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

Day 14:

There is only one thing for sure: this is a Championship race for the ages.

I had the feeling that Pandaazuma is in the driver's seat. As I wrote yesterday, going 4-2 or better in three crucial games would have turned him into a clear favorite. The first of these six "bouts" were happening today, and in ISP, Toto, and TTT the Panda went 0-3! That added up to a net loss of 7.42 points for the day, and he dropped from 2nd to 4th.

That could be good news for leader Kaito. He even had crucial wins in Bench and TTT that made up for lost points in Tipspiel and Quad. Last year's runner-up had a net gain of 0.59 points today. Enough for the title? Au contraire! I would not say "out of nowhere" but at least out of left field comes Flohru! Most crucially, Flohru won in Toto and doubled his score in that game (now 10 points). He also went to the top of my Oracle standings (though on Day 14 my standings and the official standings are both only mediocre predictors of final outcomes). Flohru gains 11.3 points for the day and suddenly moves to 1st place, even with a 4.23 leading margin (that appears to be huge given recent standards...). That turns Flohru into the 5th different leading player this basho! In-cre-di-ble!!!

Unkonoyama won in Bench and another win on senshuraku could pay off big time. For now, Unkonoyama takes third place while the Panda drops to 4th, as mentioned above. Andoreasu was pegged for 10 Oracle points yesterday but was kicked out of the Top 10 today. He drops to 5th but in a crazy basho like that I would not completely write him off (at least not until I do a more thorough analysis later today). 

Oh, the Kyushu Masters race is also quite interesting, with two players just barely over 40 points. For the moment, Hakumadashi and BlackPinkMawashi lead the standings.

[Hakumadashi 28]

1 minute ago, Randomitsuki said:

Oh, the Kyushu Masters race is also quite interesting, with two players just barely over 40 points. For the moment, Hakumadashi and BlackPinkMawashi lead the standings.

Missing an entry in TTT could end up really hurting me... I still don't know how it happened lol. Didn't expect to be this high up however! Wins in Toto, TTT and SG would give me a good chance maybe, and I'm looking good in Oracle. Would love to sneak a Yusho somehow, but I'd take lots of JYs if it meant winning the Masters!
 

Anyway, this race really seems to be decided by singular results. I can already smell the Hail Mary in Odd winning someone the title, or someone losing it because of a tiebreak loss in Toto. Many opportunities for absurd things to happen tomorrow.

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

Prospects for tomorrow:

My projection now has Flohru winning the Championship. He has six games in the points. With wins in both ISP and Toto, Flohru could make a decisive step towards his second Championship title (befittlingly, 20 years after his first). But then there is Oracle. In my projections (which suggests that all rikishi get half a win on senshuraku) he would come out on top, with 2 points over 2nd place, 4 points over 3rd place, and  5 points over 4th place. That is quite a cushion, and so I project 13.5 points for him in Oracle. Then again, if several bouts will go against his direction, his virtual lead might evaporate rather quickly.

And then there are multiple other reasons why the race is still wide open. Yes, there is the outside chance of one or several players making a kamikaze Odd Sumo bet on senshuraku and getting through with it. The likelihood for that is quite low, and the likelihood that one of the contestants manages to get that marvelous bet is even lower. The only one who really should be a little tight about Odd Sumo is Kaito as he might lose his precious 12 points.

Other reasons for the current state of unpredictability is that we have no clue who is going to win the Makuuchi yusho (and jun-yusho). This affects two games. Case in point: Salarycap Sumo. The only thing that is sure is that Aonishiki will at least get a jun-yusho, and so I have alreaday included 20 bonus points for the inofficial SCS standings. For the two Yokozuna, everything is possible from winning the yusho to not even getting the jun-yusho.  This could be crucial for Kaito who has Onosato as 10-pointer and Aonishiki as 9-pointer (he is currently trailing the Top 10 by a meager 12 SCS points). Another game where the yusho matters is Hoshitori Game (implications for Flohru who has Onosato on 13, Aonishiki on 12, and Hoshoryu on 11). And then there are games where several contestants are in or near the points (Tippspiel, Juryo Game). Bottom line: I will not place bets, and I will not even try to calculate odds at this stage.

And one more thing is uncertain, and that is my level of being occupied tomorrow. There is a small chance (maybe 25%) that I have plenty of time to give you some detailed information. It is more likely that I have very little time, but at least I hope to give you (provisional) standings without commentary tomorrow. Maybe someone is willing to compute Hoshitori Game final standings tomorrow and post them in this thread? They are often not properly updated by the game itself, one would have to check for maybe the top 20 or 30 players and assign the bonus points for yusho and sansho.

Anyway, good luck to the glorious Top 5 who gave us an incredibly entertaining show!

[Kajiyanosho 75]

Here are the latest animation and snapshot:

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/26319075/

[Hakumadashi 28]

Ah, disappointing day 15, loss in Toto and SG probably means I have no chance at the Masters. 
 

Can’t wait to find out who won the year though, I’ll try to be in broader contention next year, maybe I wasted my gunpowder with those last two basho before I have an entire year on record…

[Kaito 328]

Well, I've had a good day, gaining small amounts in Bench, TTT, Quad, Juryo Game, and Tippspiel, but I see Flohru won Oracle and scored a Toto win at least, so I should probably not get too hopeful.

I was hoping to knick the extra 3 points in Odd, but Wakamotoharu lost it for me, and it turned out the leader, glacier, defended himself well anyway, hitting a small bet that would have kept him ahead. In the end, I'm just lucky nobody passed me.

I've just noticed how unlucky I've been in Quad though. I tied for 2nd for number of winning rikishi picked, one behind the yusho winner. But placed in a big tie for 9th overall.

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

Hi there. Unfortunately (and as announced yesterday) I have no time today. Unfortunately, Hoshitori Game is stuck at Day 14, and I would not have the extra time of one hour or so to compute final results manually. Therefore, standings below are highly provisional. It's quite likely that Kaito has won the Championship! From what I gather, Flohru could only win if he got the yusho in Hoshitori Game. Again, apologies for the briefness of this, more detailed info will be issued in the upcoming days!

PROVISIONAL CHART

[shimodahito 342]

Well if there is any uncertainty, the TORCHBEARER points are presented to help  determine the world champ final rankings.  .  TORCHBEARER 2025 had 122 players and requires incredible sumo gaming ability.  TORCHBEARER JIKAN DESU.  

17 points - Unkonoyama
13 points - Pandaazuma
11 points - Bunbukuchagama
6 points - Kaito
0 points - chishafuwaku

The rest on the graph - minus 3 points for no entry 

[Bunbukuchagama 998]

8 hours ago, Randomitsuki said:

Unfortunately, Hoshitori Game is stuck at Day 14, and I would not have the extra time of one hour or so to compute final results manually

Results courtesy of Fia from Natto Sumo Discord:

Hoshi - Google Sheets

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

53 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Results courtesy of Fia from Natto Sumo Discord:

Hoshi - Google Sheets

Thanks a ton!

I have amended the graph and now consider the standings as almost official! Flohru did increase in Hoshitori Game in the end, but not enough to get away with the Championship. Congrats to Kaito! After finishing in 2nd place in 2023 and 2024, he finally made it! 

[Kaito 328]

Thanks, Rando!

Hard to believe this is the year I got it done. I was nowhere 2 basho ago. I wanted to fast forward to next year so I could try again. I didn't feel any pressure towards the end, because I never really believed I would win.

Even now, my score's a good bit lower than the last 2 years. It looks like this is easily the lowest winning score ever, despite 2020 only having 5 basho. Maybe there are more quality competitors at the top than ever? It'll be interesting to see if the trend continues.

Wheeeee! 

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

To be on the safe side, I will double-check all Kyushu results before providing super-official standings. Kyushu Masters results should be up in a few days. In contrast, setting up the final World Championship page for 2025 will take quite a while longer due to workload involved. I will notify when that is ready.

To not having you wait longer for additional tidbits, here are some semi-official standings about the Kyushu Masters and the World Championship:

Masters

Hakumadashi led after Day 14, but completely collapsed on senshuraku (from 10 projected Oracle points to 1.2 points; from 10 points in Toto to 3.63 points; from 10 points in Sumo Game to 5.43 points). With 21.26 points total, he dropped from 1st to 17th on senshuraku.

The Green Mawashi becomes blackpink this time, as BlackPinkMawashi scored the most points (43.50), barely fending off Kaito (42.28 points).

Shukun-sho: Kaito (for finishing in second place; and for having three games in double digits)

Gino-sho: Bunbukuchagama (17.00 point in his worse gaming category)

Kanto-sho: Kitakachiyama (8 games within the Top 10)

 

World Championships

2025 World Champion: Kaito (167.45 points)

2025 Shukun-sho: Andoreasu (among four players with 4 game yusho over the year, he has the highest overall score)

2025 Gino-sho: Unkonoyama (76.50 points in the worse gaming category)

2025 Kanto-sho: Andoreasu (among two players with 29 Top 10 finishes, he has the highest overall score)

2025 Pre-Basho Games Champion: Flohru (113.00 points)

2025 Daily Games Champion: Kaito (103.45 points)

 

2025 Bench Champion: Bunbukuchagama

2025 Chaingang Champion: sagi

2025 Tippspiel Champions: Kaito and tainosen

2025 GTB Champions: Hisui and Duden

2025 Hoshitori Game Champion: Wamahada

2025 ISP Champion: Konya ga Yamada

2025 Juryo Game Champion: Andoreasu

2025 Norizo Cup Champion: Kunibiki

2025 Odd Sumo Champion: Kajiyanosho

2025 Ozumo Bingo Champion: reeeen

2025 Paper Oyakata Champion: tomo

2025 RotoSumo Champion: Kitakachiyama

2025 SCS Champion: TochiYESshin

2025 Sekitori-Oracle Champion: Wamahada

2025 Sekitori-Quadrumvirate Champion: Beeftank

2025 Sekitori-Toto Champion: Kachikoshi

2025 Sumo Game Champion: Kakushoyama

2025 TTT Champion: Kotononami

2025 UDH Champion: Papayasu

Interesting, except for Hoshitori and Oracle (both won by Wamahada), every other game had a different champion!

 

[Hakumadashi 28]

remarkable… I knew I blew it on day 15, but 17th? Ouch… but prime Takayasu moment. I haven’t even won an individual game yet (the Juryo Yusho in SG I guess). 
 

I don’t have to be so annoyed about giving Tide away with a missed entry if it didn’t cost me the Green Belt. 
at least I can now concentrate on the World Championship for the first time! I might be getting ahead of myself (I can’t even score points in Bench any time soon) but I will ganbarise and do my brand of predicting (never bet on small guys, always bet on 7-7 rikishi against non 7-7 rikishi etc.) to achieve a Top 20 spot and reach Sekitori on the Superbanzuke. 
 

huge congratulations to @Kaito! This must be a lifelong goal for many players, I somehow scraped a win against you in SG (also against Flohru, maybe I’m extra focused against the best?) and it felt like a Kinboshi. I take you winning overall ahead of all these veterans who know how it felt to sort Takanohana, Musashimaru and Akebono in Hoshitori as an inspiration for a young Makushita guesser like me

thank you Randomitsuki for the daily updates and good luck to all for Hatsu. 

Edited Monday at 18:45 by Hakumadashi

[Sumo Spiffy 672]

2 hours ago, Randomitsuki said:

2025 Sekitori-Quadrumvirate Champion: Beeftank

Considering I quit playing because it was stressing me out too much, this is absolutely wild. Retire on top, I guess.

[Jakusotsu 6,428]

13 hours ago, Randomitsuki said:

Interesting, except for Hoshitori and Oracle (both won by Wamahada), every other game had a different champion!

for @Wamahada