Who is going to become Sumo Gaming World Champion?

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

Hi!

Like in many years before, I am crazy enough to create daily updates on the Masters and World Championship in Kyushu. This year, the race for the title might be particularly tight, as the four players at the top were separated by only about 10 points at shonichi. Unkonoyama was in the lead, a mere 0.16 points in front of perennial and reigning champion Pandaazuma. Andoreasu and DeRosa weren't far behind.

As you can see from the graph below, only one of the main contestant has a strong basho so far, and the other three are performing well below their average performances. Unkonoyama has now barely tallied 5 points, the Panda has about 11 points, and DeRosa has even less than a single point. Compare that to Andoreasu (more than 50 points for the basho), and we have a clear leader at the moment. Andoreasu won the World Championship twice before (2013 and 2015), and he currently leads in Toto, UDH, and Sumo Game (four-way tie) for a lofty 190.37 points. Pandaazuma (158.89) stays in second place while Unkonoyama has dropped to 3rd (153.34). Meanwhile, Kaito has conquered 4th place (146.30) from DeRosa (138.40).

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

I just noticed that even the graph display requires going from https to http...

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

Standings after Day 4:

Andoreasu lost first place in UDH and Sumo Game but still has a lead of more than 22 points over Unkonoyama who overtook the unusually fledgling Panda. Kaito remains in 4th place while Flohru moves into 5th.

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

Day 5:

As Andoreasu holds his ground at the pole position, Kaito has moved into 2nd place. Pandaazuma remains in 3rd place. Flohru moves up to 4th while Unkonoyama drops from 2nd to 5th.

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

Day 6:

One day too late, but Norizo Cup did not have standings for a prolonged time.

Meanwhile, we have a really dramatic battle for the World Championship. After six days of action, we had four different leaders already. Unkonoyama was up front before shonichi, Pandaazuma took over on shonichi, and Andoreasu took the lead on Day 2. However, on Day 6 the lead went to Kaito! Exciting stuff!

I haven't had a single look at Day 7 results, but I will do so immediately to bring your Day 7 standings. :)

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

Day 7:

Kaito was only king for a day, he lost over 16 points today by dropping from co-lead to 9th place in Tipspiel and losing 6 points in Juryo Game, dropping to 3rd place in the process. While Andoreasu also had a net loss today (somewhat worryingly, his fourth in a row) the World Champion of 2013 and 2015 has re-taken the lead. Pandaazuma moved up to 2nd place right now, but as he somehow scrambles together about 20 points even in his worst bashos, he is definitely a force to be reckoned with. If I were a betting man, I would bet on him, but I don't and I won't. Unkonoyama is 4th while DeRosa is a zero point flatliner in 5th place. The remaining players in the Top 10 are Kachikoshi (earned close to 20 points just today), Bunbukuchagama (though his extremely solid lead in the *true" Oracle standings has melted away), Flohru (who lost 18 points over the last two days), Norizo, and Oskahanada. 

[Kaito 328]

I'm really starting to regret phoning it in on GTB this time. I had changes in mind that would've put me in the middle of the top 10, but I was too lazy to resubmit.

I've got a lot of games going poorly this time, but I'm still hanging around in enough to have some hope, which is more than I expected at this stage. Even 2nd would be appreciated.

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

Standings after nakabi:

Andoreasu stopped his slow downward trend and now leads with almost 20 points over Kaito (who also improved considerably). 20 points looks like much, but a lot of this leading margin is due to Andoreasu leading a 13-way tie in Toto - a single loss could wipe out 15 points. We'll see. Pandaazuma drops to 3rd place. While Unkonoyama stays 4th, a stellar basho by Kachikoshi so far has catapulted him into 5th place. The Top 10 are rounded out by Flohru, DeRosa, Bunbukuchagama, Beeftank, and Oskahanada.

Later today I might peek into more details about the Top 5 players.

Edited November 16 by Randomitsuki

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

Here are some speculations about the prospects of the Top 5 players:

Kachikoshi has a sensational basho and leads for the Green Mawashi. He is eligible in 15 of the remaining 17 games and actually is in striking distance of the points regions in 12 of them! The downside is that he already is in the points in nine of them. He also is in double digits in three games, and the "bad" thing is that it is so much easier to drop to single digits than gain a lot. If he can even improve on his stellar performance, he might feature in the World Championship race, but a minor regression to the middle could be a bit more likely. 5% likelihood of winning, I'd say.

Unkonoyama went into the basho as the leader but I think that he has only a very slim chance of getting the title. He is eligible in 15 of the 17 remaining games but there are only 3 games left where he might have a chance at scoring, and he is already in the points in one of them. I would be surprised if he managed to finish higher than 4th place in the end. 5% likelihood of winning the title.

Pandaazuma should never be counted out. He is eligible in 16 of the remaining 17 games, and while he currently is in the points in only 2 of them, there are three to five more games where he lurks just outside of the Top 10. Given that he is relatively low in the points in Tipspiel and Toto, but that he also is one of the strongest players in these games, I could imagine that he will straddle 20 points in the end. Whether this is enough to defend the title, will depend on the other contestants as well. 25% chance of winning the title.

Kaito is eligible in all 17 remaining games, and he has irons in the fire in 10 of them. Moreover, he only has a single double-digit performance right now. This looks quite bright for him, I could well imagine him holding his current level, give or take a few points. 30% chance of winning the title.

Andoreasu of course sits nicely in the driver's seat. He is eligible in 16 of the remaining 17 games, and in 7 of them he might be up for points. Toto will be crucial: as I mentioned already, he has 15 points in that game, but there are 12 others with an identical W/L record. On the plus side, he is one of the very best Toto players historically. If he remains in double digits, he might be able to keep up with the current level. And then there are five other games where he currently hovers between 4 and 7 points. This is hard to predict as that range allows for a lot of upward movement but also could just as easily end up with zero points. 35% chance of winning the title.

Of course, with so much more basho to pass, all these speculations might turn out to be incredibly wrong. :)

Edited November 16 by Randomitsuki

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

Day 9:

'twas not a good day for those who vied for the title. All five top contestants lost points today, and while Kachikoshi in 5th only lost some small change, the Top 4 players lost over 40 points today, collectively. For leader Andoreasu, it looked like a worst-case scenario. He indeed lost in Toto and fell from overall lead (15 points) to a 16-player tie for 6th place (0.94 points). To make matters worse, he lost 6 points in UDH. If it hadn't been for some positive news (most notably, an ISP win that brought him into double-digits for that game), he would have plummeted even further. As it is, he lost about 14 points today. And still, his overall leading margin just dropped from 19 points to 14.5 points. The main reason for this is that his main pursuer Kaito also had an abysmal day that cost him not only 16 points but also 2nd place overall (in fact, he dropped all the way to 5th!!). Pandaazuma still hasn't found his mojo at all, but in spite of losing more than 4 points and having only 7.02 points for the basho, he moves up to 2nd. Quite crazy. Meanwhile, Flohru made an incredible jump in the "true" Oracle standings (being at 0.75 points yesterday and 12 points today) and suddenly finds himself in 3rd place overall! Unkonoyama remains fixed in 4th place while Kaito dropped to 5th (with Kachikoshi just fractions of a point behind). The remaining spots in the current Top 10 are taken by Bunbukuchagama, DeRosa, Oskahanada, and Kakushoyama. 

[Kaito 328]

Yeah, everything went wrong yesterday. I'm throwing hard in TTT and Quad, and found a way to lose from a strong position in Sumo Game. Could've won that and Bench in the end if Kotozakura hadn't escaped defeat by yanking Takanosho out by the hair. My mood's still spoiled over these "fun" sumo predictions, despite another flawless day of betting the NFL yesterday.

[Nantonoyama 258]

Also, keep in mind that JG final results will see players with Meisei in their team lose those points. For instance, Kaito and Unkonoyama are currently scoring 0.25pt each on the standings, actually they score 2pts each (as of day 9). As usual when this happens, I will post the official final standings for top 10 asap after senshuraku proceedings.

[Oskanohana 381]

4 hours ago, Kaito said:

Yeah, everything went wrong yesterday. I'm throwing hard in TTT and Quad, and found a way to lose from a strong position in Sumo Game. Could've won that and Bench in the end if Kotozakura hadn't escaped defeat by yanking Takanosho out by the hair. My mood's still spoiled over these "fun" sumo predictions, despite another flawless day of betting the NFL yesterday.

Yeah, we need some advanced stats in sumo. Despite being at the vanguard of technology for the last half century, Japan is severely lacking in this department. We need to know how many backward yards Tomokaze rushes per hatakikomi attempt, Tochimaru's slaps per bout, Ura's downwards ducks per minute. Just a winner and a kimarite that it's wrong way too often. Get on with the times....

And to keep it within the topic discussed here, Who is going to become sumo gaming world champion? Not me 

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

Day 10:

Oh! My! Graph! 

This is going to be the most exciting World Championship Finale ever! Lots of mysterious things happen on the virtual dohyo. Many pre-basho games (whose standings use to be quite stable in the second week) go bonkers, changing their makeup from day to day, with players suddenly moving to the upper echelons from out of the Top 10 and vice versa. This creates an insane amount of unpredictability. Amidst this turmoil, Andoreasu loses points after points, barely clinging to a lead that is more or less courtesy of the general inability of other top players this basho. But his leading margin has dropped to only three points. The reason for this is that Flohru came out of nowhere over the last two days and now turns into a top contestant for the title, moving into 2nd place overall! Kaito managed to regroup after a disastrous Day 9 and trails Andoreasu by a mere 5.5 points. Pandaazuma and Unkonoyama are both in single digits for the basho, and still they are fully in the race, that's just unbelievable. Kachikoshi is now in the points in almost all the games where he has chances left. If he doesn't go bonkers and moves into high points in many of these games, I would think that he is close to the maximum for the basho, and hence is unlikely to feature in the World Championship deciders. But feel free to prove me wrong! 

I even tried to predict the most likely final outcome (not even thinking about a potentially successful Hail Mary senshuraku move in Odd Sumo). And these predictions have Pandaazuma in 1st place (160.34), Andoreasu in 2nd (158.42), Flohru in 3rd (154.66), Kaito in 4th (154.37), and Unkonoyama in 5th (152.50). But as you can see for yourself, the projected points are way too close to provide strong evidence for anything (except for Oskanohana not winning the title...).

In other news: Oyama has joined the chart (he also has taken the lead in the Kyushu Masters Series). And as I've learned by happenstance a few days ago that Oyama seems to be no one else than early 2000s gaming legend Igiski, this fills me with immense pleasure and a good sense of nostalgia!

  

Edited November 18 by Randomitsuki

[Kajiyanosho 75]

Thank you Randomitsuki!

I made an animation here: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/26319075/

 

[Hakumadashi 28]

Incredibly thrilling to follow. This is my first year paying attention to it; surely it isn't always this close? I assumed it wouldn't be unheard of to be long decided, but the Top 7 can go in almost any order now! It's so close I'm starting to think that a guess of mine could decide the title, just by virtue of a well timed win in Sumo Game, or by edging someone out of a day's win by 0.05 tiebreak points in Toto, etc., Good Luck to all involved in the title race! (I know that's a paradoxical wish)

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

26 minutes ago, Hakumadashi said:

surely it isn't always this close? I assumed it wouldn't be unheard of to be long decided

I think it was Gary Lineker who once famously said: Sumo gaming is very simple. 500 players are making picks over 90 days, and at the end Pandaazuma always wins. 

And as for the decision being up to single opponents (and single bouts): Unfortunately, it might be that I have no time to update the standings in time on senshuraku. But when the dust is settled some time next week, I am almost in a mind to present the graph just for senshuraku, on a bout-to-bout basis.

Edited November 18 by Randomitsuki

[Oskanohana 381]

24 minutes ago, Randomitsuki said:

I think it was Gary Lineker who once famously said: Sumo gaming is very simple. 500 players are making picks over 90 days, and at the end Pandaazuma always wins. 

If instead of his Pandaness, a german goes on to win, you can sneakily edit the message and use the original end of the quote.

[Kaito 328]

It would've been nice to score some points in Bench, but it seems 3rd in MCP is only good for a 5-5 record these days.

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

Day 11:

Before coming to the overall standings, let me say a few words about the Kyushu Masters. The Green Mawashi is currently up to - well, practically anybody! We have only one player barely passing the 40 points mark right now, so if this is not going to change we will have one of the lowest Masters scores ever. At the moment, BlackPinkMawashi leads. Other players in 30+ territory are Kaito, Flohru, and Oyama, and that's it.

Quo vadis, Andoreasu? The only way is down, it seems. A loss in ISP cut his 10 points in half, and he lost his double-digit status in Juryo Game, losing roughly eight points for the day. In a tight race such as this, the consequence is dropping from 1st to 4th!!! The new leading man is - and somehow I knew it all along - perennial World Champion Pandaazuma who gained about 7.5 points today (now for a basho total of roughly 16 points). Most of this comes from a win in Toto that almost tripled his tally in that game.

Flohru kept his relatively high score but with a surging Panda he drops to 3rd place. Not that far behind are Andoreasu in 4th and Unkonoyama in 5th. DeRosa, Oskahanada, Bunbukuchagama, Kachikoshi, and Kotononami round out the Top 10.

My crystal ball projections now see Pandaazuma winning with a score in the mid-160s range. The other four contestants (Andoreasu, Flohru, Unkonoyama, Kaito) are all projected to end up between 156 and 154 points. It's up to you to change all that!

Edited November 19 by Randomitsuki

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

Day 12:

Yesterday, the Top 3 players for the year were separated by less than 3 points. Can we amp that spectacle? Yes, we can. Today, the Top 3 players for the year are separated by exactly 1.7 points!!!

Pandaazuma went from 3.5 points to 9 points in Toto yesterday, but with his loss today he dropped back to only 3 points. He was also ousted from the Top 10 in Norizo Cup and though the Panda could also improve in a few games, he is facing a net loss of 8.6 points for the day, shoving him from 1st place to 3rd place! Back into the lead for the first time since Day 6 is Kaito, and to be honest, I am rooting a bit for him as he is the only super-serious contestant without a World Championship title in his bag. But as of now, he sports a tiny 0.51 points lead over Flohru. Unkonoyama and Andoreasu are also just 5.26 and 8.40 points away from 1st place, respectively! If your pulse doesn't go up now, check whether you have any pulse to begin with.

I will add some speculations later.

[Randomitsuki 2,940]

Now who is going to become the Sumo Gaming World Champion?

Unkonoyama? Has two games in the points (Juryo Game, Bench) and still has an outside chance for points in Tipspiel, but that's it. Would probably have to win out in Bench to have a grab at the Championship title. 10% chance of winning

Andoreasu? Has three games in the points (ISP, Juryo Game, Oracle) and two more in theory (Bench, UDH). Must at least win the rest in ISP and still it will be an uphill battle from now on. 10% chance of winning.

Flohru? Has four games in the points (Oracle, OBG, UDH, Toto) and could still appear in Tippspiel, Hoshitori, ISP, Juryo Game. That looks quite promising. On the negative side, three of the games where he already is in the points are pretty high in the points (i.e., it is a bit more likely to lose points than gain in these). 20% chance of winning.

Kaito? Has seven games in the points, and three more just outside of the points, so a lot of potential. Among the seven scores there is only one game in double digits, and that is Odd Sumo which has been super-stable for about a week or so. 25% chance of winning.

Pandaazuma? Has four games in the points, and three more with potential. His advantage is having a higher starting level going into the basho; and he has no really high scores yet, so many of the seven potentialities could add him some extra points. Winning out in Toto could already guarantee the title. 35% chance of winning.

 

 

Edited November 20 by Randomitsuki

[Ganzohnesushi 548]

Please do not forget. Just one successful bet in Odd Sumo can bring 15 points on a single day. Well, not so much for Kaito who is already in 2nd place currently. But for the other four combatants this game offers huge potential for additional points.

Ganzohnesushi

[Jakusotsu 6,428]

2 hours ago, Ganzohnesushi said:

Just one successful bet in Odd Sumo can bring 15 points on a single day.

I know someone who can't help laughing from high above about your still thinking small even when you're dreaming big. 

[Ganzohnesushi 548]

40 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

I know someone who can't help laughing from high above about your still thinking small even when you're dreaming big. 

You didn't get my point at all. I was not talking about a bet winning 15 points in Odd Sumo but a bet which brings you 15 SB Masters points. I'm with Aretha Franklin here: Think!

Ganzohnesushi