Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion Aki 2025

[Reonito 1,793]

It depends on the sumo, too—they were planning to have a board meeting to discuss Takakeisho's promotion but called it off after he got absolutely rag-dolled by Goeido on day 15.

[Sumo Spiffy 670]

Theoretical question: Aonishiki will be top four next time, so the yokozuna will be out of his hair until the final days. Let's say twelve wins is where they'll seriously think about it but might still say no. Is promotion in any of these situations more likely than the others?

• 12-0, loses out (both Y and either Koto or Oho)
• 11-1, leading or tied for lead; loses to both Y, wins day 15
• 10-2, second place, beats one Y, wins day 15
• 9-3, on the edge of contention, beats both Y, wins day 15

Assume no yusho. Maybe JY, but that depends on everyone else.

Edited September 30 by Sumo Spiffy

[Bunbukuchagama 989]

2 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

12-0, loses out (both Y and either Koto or Oho)

This should be impossible, the last 3 days would be Onosato, Hosh, KTZ (in reverse order). Oho shouldn't be in the picture at that point. Still, a strong performance confirming his incredible reliability and high floor.

9-10 wins is not going to do it no matter what. I wouldn't count on 11 either if he loses to both Y. If he beats one of them - maybe, but still very shaky. 

[Bunbukuchagama 989]

52 minutes ago, Reonito said:

It depends on the sumo, too—they were planning to have a board meeting to discuss Takakeisho's promotion but called it off after he got absolutely rag-dolled by Goeido on day 15.

Let's assume Onosato blasts him out as usual - would it mean anything? 

Because I don't see anybody else clearly embarrassing him.

[Reonito 1,793]

26 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Theoretical question: Aonishiki will be top four next time, so the yokozuna will be out of his hair until the final days. Let's say twelve wins is where they'll seriously think about it but might still say no. Is promotion in any of these situations more likely than the others?

Hard to say, they didn't promote Baruto after this:

Day 1		oshidashi	M3e Hokutoriki 0-1 (3-12)	7-3
Day 2		oshidashi	M3w Kisenosato 2-0 (9-6)	8-2
Day 3		yorikiri	K1w Kakuryu 1-2 (7-8)	9-3
Day 4		fusen	S1w Chiyotaikai 0-4	7[-1]-5
Day 5		yorikiri	O2w Kaio 2-3 (9-6)	3-5
Day 6		oshidashi	K1e Kotoshogiku 2-4 (6-9)	6-6
Day 7		sukuinage	Y1e Hakuho 6-1 (12-3)	1-11
Day 8		yorikiri	O1w Harumafuji 6-2 (10-5)	6-7
Day 9		yoritaoshi	O1e Kotooshu 7-2 (9-6)	5-7[-1]
Day 10		oshidashi	M1e Toyonoshima 4-6 (8-7)	8-1
Day 11		shitatenage	Y1w Asashoryu 10-1 (13-2)	0-9
Day 12		yorikiri	M2e Goeido 6-6 (7-8)	5-3
Day 13		oshidashi	M6w Aminishiki 9-4 (11-4)	6-3
Day 14		osakate	M4e Kakizoe 6-8 (6-9)	2-2
Day 15		uwatedashinage	M5w Kyokutenho 8-7	6-4

 

[Reonito 1,793]

17 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Let's assume Onosato blasts him out as usual - would it mean anything? 

Because I don't see anybody else clearly embarrassing him.

I think losing to Goeido, who was very much on the downslope of his checkered ozeki career and finished 9-6 with a fusen, in completely embarrassing fashion in the final bout of the basho left a particularly bad taste.

[Bunbukuchagama 989]

18 minutes ago, Reonito said:

they didn't promote Baruto after this:

Was there a (semi)-official reason for that? Maybe his 9-win dip in the middle of the run?

[Sumo Spiffy 670]

1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

This should be impossible, the last 3 days would be Onosato, Hosh, KTZ (in reverse order). Oho shouldn't be in the picture at that point.

Unless Koto is out with an injury. 

[Reonito 1,793]

58 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Was there a (semi)-official reason for that? Maybe his 9-win dip in the middle of the run?

Before my time; I can only point you to Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baruto_Kaito

I'm sure others here can chime in.

[Reonito 1,793]

On 29/09/2025 at 12:01, Asashosakari said:

FWIW, I've decided to chicken out on a proper guess and wait to see if maaaybe Takarafuji calls it quits before the banzuke-making session. But yeah, it's the 12 guys you mentioned + Daiamami who are in the running for those 10 spots, so definitely a crowded area this time. (Conversely, the full top 15 look quite empty, I only found 27 proper candidates for that at first glance yesterday.)

Well, you called it, it's still 12 guys for 10 spots but that's better than 13.

[Akinomaki 41,857]

The Sponichi guess for sanyaku and makuuchi promotions http://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2025/10/01/kiji/20251001s00005000095000c.html

They think that the day 15 bouts Takayasu-Kirishima and Takanosho-Wakatakakage were sanyaku deciders, and from recent experience, expect Takayasu to remain as komusubi, and Hakuoho not be promoted. They don't give a direct guess of who will be the 2nd sekiwake, only that Oho and Takanosho will return to sanyaku, and in that order, Oho is the one for sekiwake.

Takerufuji, Nishikigi and Hitoshi to go down, but 5 with records to go up. Fujiseiun and Asahakuryu will likely be left out. Even Hitoshi might stay after winning his final bout against Meisei. Judging from recent developments, his record is more than enough to remain, but in this case of a mass of proper promotion candidates, it is unlikely that he will. If he does, Chiyoshoma will be left out, or, highly unlikely, Meisei will go down.

Edited October 2 by Akinomaki

[Reonito 1,793]

21 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

The Sponichi guess for sanyaku and makuuchi promotions

Hard to argue with any of it

[Heather82Cs 15]

I am curious, does anyone put their predictions in GTB to see how they fare? (I assume that the top guy in the game is Hakkaku FWIW).

[Yarimotsu 645]

5 hours ago, Heather82Cs said:

I am curious, does anyone put their predictions in GTB to see how they fare? (I assume that the top guy in the game is Hakkaku FWIW).

I assume you mean the predictions in this thread - you may notice that juryo guesses and makushita joi guesses are made here, and aside from the sanyaku discussion - makuuchi is left for GTB. After GTB entries close, the usual contributors here generally post their makuuchi guesses in the relevant thread.

[Heather82Cs 15]

16 hours ago, Yarimotsu said:

I assume you mean the predictions in this thread - you may notice that juryo guesses and makushita joi guesses are made here, and aside from the sanyaku discussion - makuuchi is left for GTB. After GTB entries close, the usual contributors here generally post their makuuchi guesses in the relevant thread.

No I meant the Sponichi (or other main relevant media) guesses :D

I don't even want to know why you guys bother with juryo or below but I love reading all of that.

Edited October 4 by Heather82Cs

[Yarimotsu 645]

Just now, Heather82Cs said:

No I meant the Sponichi (or other main relevant media) guesses :D

I don't even want to know why you guys bother with juryo or below but I love reading all of that.

Oh yeah there was some discussion of that a while back, I believe it was Asashosakari (did I type it correctly from memory) but i could be mistaken, who was discussing what scores they would have gotten. I think the consensus was they are generally decent guesses but nothing special, and also that nobody was currently inputting those guesses as their own although someone had for half a year in the past. Perhaps someone can dig up the post and test my memory.

I also don't bother with Juryo / makushita guesses but like knowing about it.

[Asashosakari 20,300]

5 hours ago, Yarimotsu said:

Oh yeah there was some discussion of that a while back, I believe it was Asashosakari (did I type it correctly from memory) but i could be mistaken, who was discussing what scores they would have gotten. I think the consensus was they are generally decent guesses but nothing special, and also that nobody was currently inputting those guesses as their own although someone had for half a year in the past. Perhaps someone can dig up the post and test my memory.

You're probably thinking of this post of mine from half a year ago: Link

[Reonito 1,793]

5 hours ago, Heather82Cs said:

I don't even want to know why you guys bother with juryo or below but I love reading all of that.

Because it's fun? 

[Reonito 1,793]

2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

You're probably thinking of this post of mine from half a year ago

Could I ask you to also link to your post(s) on expected lower-division movements by record?

[Asashosakari 20,300]

11 hours ago, Reonito said:

Could I ask you to also link to your post(s) on expected lower-division movements by record?

I believe that was done by Gurowake rather than me...?

[Tigerboy1966 1,642]

On 04/10/2025 at 17:47, Reonito said:

On 04/10/2025 at 11:50, Heather82Cs said:

I don't even want to know why you guys bother with juryo or below but I love reading all of that.

Because it's fun? 

If you pay attention to the lower divisions you can follow new wrestlers as they rise to the top... or get stuck in makushita forever.

[Gurowake 4,154]

On 04/10/2025 at 14:21, Reonito said:

Could I ask you to also link to your post(s) on expected lower-division movements by record?

 

On 05/10/2025 at 01:44, Asashosakari said:

I believe that was done by Gurowake rather than me...?

Assuming that you mean the compiled data as of around 10 years ago for the average movements in the lower division, if you PM me your email address I can send you the data.  I don't recall if I posted it here, but it's a lot of data and probably works better in the original Excel file than as a table.  I wouldn't trust it very much though, since it's ten years old at this point.  I certainly don't have the time that I did ten years ago to compile it again.

[Heather82Cs 15]

On 04/10/2025 at 18:47, Reonito said:

Because it's fun? 

I was today's years old when I connected the dots of where I had seen y'all's usernames... Anyway, can someone tell this unworthy noob when the deadline for GTB is, the website still mentions Aki.

[Reonito 1,793]

3 minutes ago, Heather82Cs said:

I was today's years old when I connected the dots of where I had seen y'all's usernames... Anyway, can someone tell this unworthy noob when the deadline for GTB is, the website still mentions Aki.

http://www.sumoforum.net/forums/topic/45237-gtb-kyushu-basho-2025-66-entries-so-far-17-days-left-to-enter/

 

[Asashosakari 20,300]

It's way too late, but I want to be posting my guesses again after I had to skip out on it after Nagoya already.

Juryo

Hitoshi (M17w 7-8)        J1   Kotoeiho (J2e 8-7)
Fujiseiun (J5w 10-5)      J2   Mita (J4w 9-6)
Daiseizan (J1e 7-8)       J3   Kagayaki (J4e 8-7)
Asahakuryu (J11w 13-2 Y)  J4   Asanoyama (J13w 12-3)
Hatsuyama (J8e 9-6)       J5   Tochitaikai (J5e 7-8)
Takerufuji (M12e 0-0-15)  J6   Nishikigi (M16w 2-13)
Kotokuzan (J8w 8-7)       J7   Shirokuma (J9e 8-7)
Kayo (J6e 6-9)            J8   Kazekeno (J11e 8-7)
Hidenoumi (J7w 6-9)       J9   Nishinoryu (J14w 8-7)
Hakuyozan (J10e 7-8)      J10  Tohakuryu (J6w 4-11)
Tamashoho (J7e 4-11)      J11  Tsurugisho (J9w 5-10)
Kitanowaka (Ms1w 5-2)     J12  Asasuiryu (J12w 7-8)
Himukamaru (Ms2w 5-2)     J13  Fujiryoga (Ms5w 6-1)
Wakanosho (Ms3w 5-2)      J14  Shiden (J14e 7-8)

Makushita-joi

Some in-line comments for this...

Takakento (Ms2e 4-3)      Ms1  Kyokukaiyu (J13e 6-9)
Otsuji (Ms3e 4-3)         Ms2  Shimazuumi (Ms20e 7-0 Y)
Endo (J3e 0-0-15)         Ms3  Miyanokaze (J10w 3-12)
Daiamami (Ms1e 3-4)       Ms4  Dewanoryu (Ms15e 6-1)
Seihakuho (Ms10e 5-2)     Ms5  Inami (Ms10w 5-2)
Kazuto (Ms7e 4-3)         Ms6  Yoshii (Ms8w 4-3)

Very crowded up to here. Yoshii not getting into the top 5 isn't that outrageous, but if Kazuto doesn't make it that will be very unlucky indeed. We had a very similar situation half a year ago where it was Ms7w 4-3 that didn't make it in. In that case I guessed that the last spot would be coming down to that 4-3 and a Ms1w 3-4, but the makekoshi ended up nowhere near the Ms5/6 line and so I'm also predicting Daiamami to hang on easily this time. Other than that it's easy to make a case for everybody in Dewanoryu/Inami/Kazuto as the one who has to miss out.

If that ranking prediction is correct we'll have seven rikishi with sekitori experience up front followed by three who haven't been there (will be true for any possible Ms5w), so the likelihood of any juryo debuts for Hatsu 2026 may be relatively low.

Hananoumi (Ms24e 6-1)     Ms7  Tenshoho (Ms12w 4-3)
Tochimusashi (Ms13e 4-3)  Ms8  Okaryu (Ms18w 5-2)
Mudoho (Ms5e 3-4)         Ms9  Kotokenryu (Ms14w 4-3)
Kamito (Ms4e 3-5w)        Ms10 Noda (Ms23w 5-2)
Daikisho (Ms17e 4-3)      Ms11 Shimanoumi (Ms4w 2-5)
Matsui (Ms9e 3-4)         Ms12 Shohoryu (Ms9w 3-4)

After Yoshii everything falls apart immediately and all following rikishi should be getting quite lucky regardless of whether they had a KK or MK. Not much of a projected bonus for Kamito for the win in his extra 8th appearance, but as you can see there may not be much scope for it because of the already-small demotions for other guys (i.e. Mudoho minus 4 on 3-4, Shimanoumi only minus 7 on 2-5). I just winged it and it felt okay to put Kamito in the "gap" between Kotokenryu and Noda (who normally wouldn't be gaining 8 full ranks on Kotokenryu).

Last month I wrote:

On 29/09/2025 at 21:01, Asashosakari said:

FWIW, I've decided to chicken out on a proper guess and wait to see if maaaybe Takarafuji calls it quits before the banzuke-making session. But yeah, it's the 12 guys you mentioned + Daiamami who are in the running for those 10 spots, so definitely a crowded area this time. (Conversely, the full top 15 look quite empty, I only found 27 proper candidates for that at first glance yesterday.)

It's arguably even just 24. Takarafuji's retirement took out one more rikishi, and the other two that I initially counted but really shouldn't have are Toseiryu and Fukuzaki with their 2-5's at Ms6. It's not super-rare to hang on to a place in the top 15 with that, but it's certainly not the common outcome. So, six more places to fill with rikishi who are going to be even luckier than the ones down to Ms12 already were:

Kaigo (Ms28w 5-2)         Ms13 Hanaoka (Ms22e 4-3)
Tochikodai (Ms22w 4-3)    Ms14 Toseiryu (Ms6e 2-5)
Fukuzaki (Ms6w 2-5)       Ms15 Chiyomaru (Ms11e 3-4)

Originally I had the 2-5's even higher, but after realizing how lucky they would be to stay in the top 15 at all I dropped them to where they are now. Other possible contenders for these last few slots are:

Enho (Ms31e 5-2)
Tanji (Ms24w 4-3)
Kazuma (Sd26e 7-0 Y)
Narutaki (Ms11w 3-4)
Satorufuji (Ms12e 3-4)

For a little while it looked as though going 3-4 at Ms10 and below is almost treated as an auto-demotion now, because several such rikishi were replaced with KK rikishi who had very weak cases for a promotion to the top 15. But last basho we got Oshoryu going Ms11w 3-4 -> Ms15w and Awanokuni Ms39w 6-1 -> Ms16e, where the KK was in line with other recent promotion cases and the MK was slightly weaker than others who got dropped, so with the faint hope that they have seen the light again I have given the last spot to Chiyomaru as well.

The arguably most deserving candidate would be Kazuma (even ahead of the two 2-5's), but at Sd26e he was just outside of the range from which a 7-0 typically provides a promotion to Ms15+, and it's my suspicion that they're not going to make his potential road to juryo that easy if they don't have to. Either way, nobody among these 11 possibles is a complete certainty; even Kaigo could reasonably end up behind all five guys that I have him in front of, plus either Kazuma or Narutaki.

Assuming the top 15 in/out decisions are accurate there are 8 rikishi moving into the extended promotion zone, at the expense of:

Narutaki (Ms11w 3-4)
Satorufuji (Ms12e 3-4)

Akua (Ms13w 1-6)

Gyotoku (Ms14e 0-2-5)

Nabatame (Ms8e 0-0-7)
Oshoryu (Ms15w 0-0-7)

Takarafuji (J12e 5-10 intai)
Mitoryu (Ms7w 0-0-3 intai)

Edited October 25 by Asashosakari