Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Natsu 2025

[Reonito 1,788]

1 hour ago, dingo said:

Can it work in reverse? If a yokozuna picks an attendant that rikishi will have a higher chance of staying due to his new assignment. I assume that would be preposterous but sometimes preposterous things happen in sumo... 

The banzuke is decided at the meeting on the first Wednesday (I think) after the basho concludes, so it shouldn't even be procedurally possible to adjust a rank based on anything that happens subsequently.

[Asashosakari 20,285]

Not to mention that Ryuden's Nagoya rank was decided while the envoys were still on the way to Casa Nishonoseki.

[dingo 1,483]

OK, I understand that Ryuden's case doesn't match the schedule but I still wonder in general would the banzuke committee view yokozuna attendees more leniently than "regular" rikishi? Again that's unlikely and would be unfair towards other rikishi but I'm just wondering if a yokozuna' s importance can just tip the scales slightly. When I have more time I should dig in the database a bit... 

[Bunbukuchagama 978]

11 minutes ago, dingo said:

OK, I understand that Ryuden's case doesn't match the schedule but I still wonder in general would the banzuke committee view yokozuna attendees more leniently than "regular" rikishi? Again that's unlikely and would be unfair towards other rikishi but I'm just wondering if a yokozuna' s importance can just tip the scales slightly. When I have more time I should dig in the database a bit... 

This is a bit too much. Is Onosato going to decide who stays in Makuuchi? 

[Akinomaki 41,849]

Since Onosato picked Takanosho for tsuyu-harai at the next dohyo-iri, he may have realised that he shouldn't rely on Ryuden

[dingo 1,483]

4 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

This is a bit too much. Is Onosato going to decide who stays in Makuuchi? 

No, but the banzuke committee might look at the yokozuna attendants and make some adjustments. In the end I'm not serious about it, and it's very unlikely anyway. Just an intriguing thought, no more. 

[Andreas21 221]

17 hours ago, Reonito said:

I can see them promoting WTK with another 12-3; the others likely need at least 13, maybe more if it's not a yusho.

Agree on WTK 12 (no light treatment after 7-8) and Daieisho 13 (getting Goeido-like bonus). 14 for Kirishima - no bonus for Ozeki reentries.

Is there any bonus when only one Ozeki exists? I doubt it. Maybe when there is one or less Ozeki PLUS Yokozuna.

[Reonito 1,788]

7 minutes ago, Andreas21 said:

Is there any bonus when only one Ozeki exists? I doubt it. Maybe when there is one or less Ozeki PLUS Yokozuna.

Well, we've never been there, and only dipped down to 2 O+Y on a handful of occasions. I think the criteria are flexible to try to avoid this. There's been a lot of speculation regarding just what they'd do if the number were slated to drop to one.

[Yamanashi 4,085]

23 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Well, we've never been there, and only dipped down to 2 O+Y on a handful of occasions. I think the criteria are flexible to try to avoid this. There's been a lot of speculation regarding just what they'd do if the number were slated to drop to one.

We've been close recently, and the discussion on the Forum varied from "they'll just ignore it" to "a cross-rip in the time-space continuum!!"  The only thing that really matters is how the NSK would handle it, and I'm sure that as always the solution will be criticized.

[Reonito 1,788]

2 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

We've been close recently, and the discussion on the Forum varied from "they'll just ignore it" to "a cross-rip in the time-space continuum!!"  The only thing that really matters is how the NSK would handle it, and I'm sure that as always the solution will be criticized.

They lived with Y+O = 2 for 3 basho and then promoted Kiribayama/Kirishima with an unambiguous case, so we didn't get to find out. They could either ignore it or promote the closest guy who doesn't meet usual criteria, not sure how far that would extend if (say) no sekiwake (or even komusubi) had a winning record.

[Bunbukuchagama 978]

3 hours ago, Andreas21 said:

Maybe when there is one or less Ozeki PLUS Yokozuna.

Less than 2 Y+O never happened before. 

[Reonito 1,788]

There was one modern basho with zero actual Ozeki, but it had 3 Yokozuna, two filling YO roles. Now that we have two Yokozuna, no crisis should be triggered unless one of them were to be forced to retire abruptly  ; otherwise they can stay on the banzuke as long as needed, even if they don't actually appear.

[maglor 132]

9 hours ago, Reonito said:

They lived with Y+O = 2 for 3 basho and then promoted Kiribayama/Kirishima with an unambiguous case, so we didn't get to find out. They could either ignore it or promote the closest guy who doesn't meet usual criteria, not sure how far that would extend if (say) no sekiwake (or even komusubi) had a winning record.

The fact that they declined to promote Kiri with 31 wins over the last 3 basho and a kyujo Takakeisho does seem to indicate that they weren't too concerned

[Tigerboy1966 1,639]

8 hours ago, Reonito said:

There was one modern basho with zero actual Ozeki, but it had 3 Yokozuna, two filling YO roles.

And they then promoted Kotokaze with 31, so it looks like they were uncomfortable with the situation.

[dingo 1,483]

That was over 40 years ago though. From time to time I wonder how much the Kyokai takes into account historical precedent. Do they have a guy whose job is to access sumodb and pull all relevant data? So that at the rijikai or banzuke committee meeting or whatever they can all go over the old info and go hmm I see, 44 years ago they did promote an ozeki with 31 wins... 

Edited June 5 by dingo

[Reonito 1,788]

8 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

And they then promoted Kotokaze with 31, so it looks like they were uncomfortable with the situation.

Seems like promotions were generally easier through 1985...

[just_some_guy 308]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Seems like promotions were generally easier through 1985...

I've not researched it too extensively, but banzuke movement in the past seems to have been wilder than today's. I frequently will be looking at past rikishi's records and see violent upward movement on a fairly weak record. (Recent example I noticed being Konishiki going 8-7 and getting promoted from M9 to M2 July/Sept 1997). 

I do realize those odd jumps still happen based on contextual banzuke movement, but at least to my eye it seems they were more common "back in the day."

Not sure if this can be logically extended to Ozeki promotions, but who knows, and there's no basho on at the moment so what else do I have to talk about?

[Kachikoshi 52]

33 minutes ago, just_some_guy said:

I've not researched it too extensively, but banzuke movement in the past seems to have been wilder than today's. I frequently will be looking at past rikishi's records and see violent upward movement on a fairly weak record. (Recent example I noticed being Konishiki going 8-7 and getting promoted from M9 to M2 July/Sept 1997). 

I do realize those odd jumps still happen based on contextual banzuke movement, but at least to my eye it seems they were more common "back in the day."

Not sure if this can be logically extended to Ozeki promotions, but who knows, and there's no basho on at the moment so what else do I have to talk about?

I think the main difference is that in the 90’s there was a lot more emphasis placed on making sure those with makekoshi got big enough demotions. With that being said I took a look at the particular basho you linked and it was pretty anomalous - only 4 of the 17 maegashira ranked above Konishiki had kachikoshi, with two of the four being promoted to sanyaku.

[Bunbukuchagama 978]

4 minutes ago, Kachikoshi said:

only 4 of the 17 maegashira ranked above Konishiki had kachikoshi, with two of the four being promoted to sanyaku.

When sanyaku was mighty and scary, it was typical for the top half of Maegashira ranks to get destroyed on a regular basis. As a result, some lucky KK from the middle of the division would often get sucked up into the resulting vacuum. 

[dingo 1,483]

14 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

When sanyaku was mighty and scary, it was typical for the top half of Maegashira ranks to get destroyed on a regular basis. As a result, some lucky KK from the middle of the division would often get sucked up into the resulting vacuum. 

See also the next banzuke. To a lesser extent, but still. 

[Reonito 1,788]

Hatsu 2015 is one of the more extreme examples of this genre.

[Sumo Spiffy 667]

52 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Hatsu 2015 is one of the more extreme examples of this genre.

And if precedent is ever going to mean anything, you'd think it will when Takayasu was 6-9 at K1e in that one and this one. 

[Reonito 1,788]

1 minute ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

And if precedent is ever going to mean anything, you'd think it will when Takayasu was 6-9 at K1e in that one and this one. 

Oh, I missed that, it's quite something and a testament to his longevity.

[Bunbukuchagama 978]

9 hours ago, dingo said:

See also the next banzuke. To a lesser extent, but still. 

We might be returning to those times.

[maglor 132]

5 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

And if precedent is ever going to mean anything, you'd think it will when Takayasu was 6-9 at K1e in that one and this one. 

Ichinojo also helpfully 6-9 at S1w for our consideration