Yokozuna Promotion Speculation

[Reonito 1,384]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

I mean, it's essentially part of the accepted historical record that the pre-Futahaguro YDCs were very open to considering information that extended beyond the results of two tournaments, so it's somewhat pointless to look at those cases like that. Taking three consecutive tournaments as a "run" was perfectly normal, but it didn't even stop there:

My only reason to bring any of this up was to note that the pre-1988 era doesn't provide any sort of meaningful information as to what they might do now, for the reasons you detail.

[Chiyozakura 130]

5 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

The common factor was having won at least one yusho, but that yusho did not trigger the promotion so much as cause them to consider whether or not the winner was suitable for promotion. It was a pragmatic way of doing things that was not undone by the promotion of Futahaguro, as he should not have even been considered. No, it came to an end because they didn't want Konishiki as their star attraction, and the consecutive yusho requirement was a convenient way of avoiding it. 

Times have changed.

 

Sorry but that is nonsense. Konishiki had borderline numbers at best and that only two years after Asahifuji had consistently put up numbers of 12+ basho without being promoted. The whole Konishiki discrimination story came up after one of Konishiki's tsukebito answered the phone to a tabloid and made some crude remarks which then were blown up. Just checking Asahifuji's career or the course of the bashos where Konishiki came statistically close shows that it was wrong.

[dingo 1,212]

It's interesting to speculate a bit further -- what would the NSK do with a doten yusho? Kotozakura would probably be promoted anyway, except maybe in case of a 11-4 doten. Now Hoshoryu would be an interesting case, and also depend on who is the winner and what is the result. For example if Kotozakura wins the yusho again and Hoshoryu gets a doten result the NSK might well say one yokozuna is enough for now and ask Hoshoryu for more results the following basho. That could be likely even if they both get 14-1, and pretty certain in case of 13-2 doten. Things would get really interesting if someone else yushos and Hoshoryu gets the doten. I suppose with 14-1 they might consider promoting him, depending on how desperate they are for a new yokozuna. For example if Onosato wins and starts his own tsuna run they might wait one more basho to see how things work out. In general I get the feeling the powers that be are not in a huge rush just yet and can wait for at least a few basho more of there's no clear candidate. 

[Dapeng 233]

2 hours ago, dingo said:

It's interesting to speculate a bit further -- what would the NSK do with a doten yusho? Kotozakura would probably be promoted anyway, except maybe in case of a 11-4 doten. Now Hoshoryu would be an interesting case, and also depend on who is the winner and what is the result. For example if Kotozakura wins the yusho again and Hoshoryu gets a doten result the NSK might well say one yokozuna is enough for now and ask Hoshoryu for more results the following basho. That could be likely even if they both get 14-1, and pretty certain in case of 13-2 doten. Things would get really interesting if someone else yushos and Hoshoryu gets the doten. I suppose with 14-1 they might consider promoting him, depending on how desperate they are for a new yokozuna. For example if Onosato wins and starts his own tsuna run they might wait one more basho to see how things work out. In general I get the feeling the powers that be are not in a huge rush just yet and can wait for at least a few basho more of there's no clear candidate. 

For Koto it's quite clear. Unless someone get a 15-0, NSK will promote Koto even with a non-yusho13-2. For Hosho, a 13+ yusho is required. 

[dingo 1,212]

15 hours ago, Dapeng said:

For Koto it's quite clear. Unless someone get a 15-0, NSK will promote Koto even with a non-yusho13-2. For Hosho, a 13+ yusho is required. 

Yeah but let's say Abi wins the yusho and Hoshoryu gets a 14-1 doten. There might be a case for him to be promoted, though I agree that probably an outright yusho is required, or at least another strong showing in the third basho.

[Godango 973]

Things have been more flexible in the last two promotions compared to earlier post-Futahaguro ones (not questioning them, just stating facts). But I can’t see a yokozuna promotion without any yusho—maybe two doten, but not a JY and a doten.

Edited November 30 by Godango
To be clear I'm talking about no yusho as part of the run.

[themistyseas 238]

On 29/11/2024 at 11:06, Katooshu said:

I am hoping Onosato eventually becomes yokozuna, so we can call him Yoko Ono

Somewhat OT but I laughed (too) hard at this. Maybe I'm the only one here getting thrown when folks save a handful of letters... I get we can infer who's being talked about from context but when I see "Kise" I think "Kise beya" but on this forum it's used almost exclusively referencing Kisenosato. Seems equally strange to be referring to Kotozakura here as "Koto" when that's the prefix of literally an entire heya (and a Tokyo ward housing much sumo history) and a bit like referring to Terunofuji as "Fuji"... but maybe I'm in a minority of one here.

But Yoko Ono might be the exception that makes the rule and the true acceptable use case, not only that but it's fully Kintamayaman in nature. Though of course, we've already had a Yoko Bono and I'm not sure I'd want to hear that... ;)

[RabidJohn 1,722]

2 hours ago, themistyseas said:

Maybe I'm the only one here getting thrown when folks save a handful of letters... I get we can infer who's being talked about from context but when I see "Kise" I think "Kise beya" but on this forum it's used almost exclusively referencing Kisenosato.

Doesn't help that it's so 2018.
Surely he's Nish now.

[rhyen 1,823]

19 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

Doesn't help that it's so 2018.
Surely he's Nish now.

Kumar?

[visitor_22 28]

Wakatakakage has 33 wins in his last 3 bashos as Maegashira. Interesting.

[Reonito 1,384]

2 hours ago, visitor_22 said:

Wakatakakage has 33 wins in his last 3 bashos as Maegashira. Interesting.

This is actually extremely rare! It's only the third time, in fact, after Goeido (34) in 2010 and Yoshikaze (33) in 2015. All three started at M14e, too.

[Yamanashi 3,776]

2 minutes ago, Reonito said:

All three started at M14e, too.

Well, that helps.

[Ack! 445]

5 hours ago, visitor_22 said:

Wakatakakage has 33 wins in his last 3 bashos as Maegashira. Interesting.

 

3 hours ago, Reonito said:

This is actually extremely rare! It's only the third time, in fact, after Goeido (34) in 2010 and Yoshikaze (33) in 2015. All three started at M14e, too.

I note none of the rikishi with a yusho from the bottom of makuuchi achieved the feat, nor was there a yusho at any rank involved with those who did. 

Edited December 1 by Ack!

[Asashosakari 18,967]

49 minutes ago, Ack! said:

I note none of the rikishi with a yusho from the bottom of makuuchi achieved the feat, nor was there a yusho at any rank involved with those who did. 

Maegashira yusho used to be a near-automatic promotion to sanyaku, so it would have been difficult to amass further wins as maegashira. That left only theoretical runs where the yusho caps off the three tournaments, which in turn would have been difficult because 20+ wins beforehand almost always mean a rank in the joi-jin for the third basho.

[hakutorizakura 609]

19 hours ago, Reonito said:

This is actually extremely rare! It's only the third time, in fact, after Goeido (34) in 2010 and Yoshikaze (33) in 2015. All three started at M14e, too.

11-4 at M14e, go Chiyoshoma! 

[Gurowake 4,016]

On 01/12/2024 at 11:35, Reonito said:

This is actually extremely rare! It's only the third time, in fact, after Goeido (34) in 2010 and Yoshikaze (33) in 2015. All three started at M14e, too.

Yoshikaze's is notable in that his low rank was not due to having failed to compete in previous tournaments.  It's not all that strange that Goeido and WTK could manage it given they didn't get to M14e by bad performances on the dohyo, while that was why Yoshikaze was that low.  I particularly remember his 5-10 the previous basho really stinging me in my games performance then.  The 8-7 the basho before that was reasonable when returning from injury at a lower rank, but that 5-10 seemed so out of character; I can only imagine he was still suffering what whatever caused the withdraw a couple basho before, and then starting the next basho was back to full strength.

Edited December 2 by Gurowake

[just_some_guy 264]

I don't pretend to read the minds of the YDC and such, but I'd be very shocked if anyone without a yusho got the rope. That's seemed to be a very hard line since Futahaguro, to the point I'm surprised anyone's considering it right now.

I'll also agree with the comments that they shouldn't be in a rush for a new Yokozuna. Between Hoshoryu, Kotozakura, Onosato, and Takerufuji (though he's obviously not in position yet) they've got plenty of hopefuls. I'd say it's a very reasonable expectation that at least one gets promoted within a year, and at least two total within two years. The future is bright and the fans know it so there's no need for a premature promotion.

[Reonito 1,384]

5 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Yoshikaze's is notable in that his low rank was not due to having failed to compete in previous tournaments.  It's not all that strange that Goeido and WTK could manage it given they didn't get to M14e by bad performances on the dohyo, while that was why Yoshikaze was that low.  I particularly remember his 5-10 the previous basho really stinging me in my games performance then.  The 8-7 the basho before that was reasonable when returning from injury at a lower rank, but that 5-10 seemed so out of character; I can only imagine he was still suffering what whatever caused the withdraw a couple basho before, and then starting the next basho was back to full strength.

Yoshikaze's 33/3 is the most unlikely for sure, and the only one to date at any set of ranks in the top division for someone who never reached ozeki (and wasn't ever even in that conversation, unlike WTK)